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Party City on Friday announced it will close all of its stores and has initiated corporate layoffs effective immediately, according to a CNN report.

CEO Barry Litwin told corporate employees in a meeting viewed by CNN that Party City has to “commence a winddown process immediately,” and that Friday would be their last day of work for the company.

“That is without question the most difficult message that I’ve ever had to deliver,” Litwin said at the meeting, according to the report.

CNN reported the company’s closure was due to ongoing financial challenges at the party supply retailer, which less than two years ago filed for bankruptcy protection over its inability to pay off $1.7 billion in debt.

The New Jersey-based chain exited bankruptcy in September 2023 through a plan that included transitioning into a privately held company and canceling nearly $1 billion in debt. A majority of its 800 U.S. stores were able to stay open as it emerged from bankruptcy.

Litwin was named CEO in August and said at the time he saw “many opportunities to strengthen our financial performance and build a leading end-to-end celebration experience for consumers,” according to a press release. 

Prior to his appointment, he was the CEO of Global Industrial Company, a distribution leader in industrial products.

Competition in the party goods and costume space has grown in recent years, including Spirit Halloween’s continued rise within and outside of the spooky season. The holiday costume chain announced in October that it would open 10 new “Spirit Christmas” stores, with some of the stores being converted from existing Spirit Halloween locations.

Online retailers have also added pressure to Party City’s operation, even as the company began to offer items on Amazon in 2018.

Representatives for Party City did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on CNN’s report or potential story closures. Read the full CNN report here.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

This week saw the fabled Hindenburg Omen generate its first major sell signal in three years, suggesting the endless bull market of 2024 may soon indeed be ending. Why is this indicator so widely followed, and what does this confirmed signal tell us about market conditions going into Q1? First, let’s break down the conditions that led to this rare but powerful bearish indicator.

Major Tops Tend to Have Consistent Patterns

Strategist Jim Miekka created the Hindenburg Omen in 2010 after analyzing key market tops through market history. What consistent patterns and signals tended to occur leading into these market peaks? He boiled it all down to three key factors which were consistently present:

  1. The broad equity markets are in an uptrend
  2. At least 2.5% of NYSE listings are making a new 52-week high and at least 2.5% are making new 52-week lows on the same day
  3. The McClellan Oscillator breaks below the zero level

One final step involves observing these three conditions occur at least two times within one month. Looking at the chart, we can see that this completed Hindenburg Omen signal has only occurred three times since 2019: in February 2020, going into the COVID peak, in December 2021, just before the 2022 bear market, and in December 2024.

What strikes me about this initial look at the indicator is that from a technical perspective, 2024 and 2021 have been remarkably similar. Both years featured long-term uptrends with minimal drawdowns and low volatility.  So does that mean we are heading into another 2022 and a 9-month bear market for stocks? Not necessarily.

Trend-Following Techniques Can Help Improve Accuracy

Switching to a weekly chart, we can bring in much more history to consider. I’ve added red vertical lines to indicate any time we registered a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal with at least two observations within one month.

Reviewing some of the recent market tops, we can see that this indicator did remarkably well in identifying topping conditions in 2021, 2020, and 2018. Going back even further, you’ll notice signals around the 2007 and 2000 peaks as well.  But what about all the other signals that were not followed by a major decline?

People have quipped that the Hindenburg Omen have “signalled ten out of the last five corrections,” referencing the “false alarm” signals that did not actually play out. I would argue that the key with indicators like this is to combine them with trend-following approaches, similar to how I approach bearish momentum divergences.

When I see a bearish divergence between price and RSI or observe any other leading indicators like the Hindenburg Omen flash a sell signal, it doesn’t tell me to blindly take action! What it does tell me is to be on high alert and look for signs of distribution that could serve to confirm a bearish rotation. By patiently waiting for confirmation, we can improve our success rate and take action only when the charts compel us to do so!

S&P 5850 Remains the Level to Watch

So where does that leave us in December 2024?  While Wednesday’s post-Fed drop certainly represented a significant short-term distribution pattern, the longer-term trends for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still quite constructive.

The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average this week for the first time since September. And while Wednesday and Thursday both saw the SPX close below the 50-day, Friday’s rally on improved inflation data took the major equity index right back above this key short-term barometer.

SPX 5850 has been my “line in the sand” since the November pullback, and as long as price remains above this threshold, I’m inclined to consider this market innocent until proven guilty. And given the normal end-of-the-year window dressing common with money managers, I would not be surprised if the Magnificent 7 stocks and other large-cap growth names remain strong enough to keep the benchmarks in decent shape into year-end.

But indicators like the Hindenburg Omen certainly have caused me to dust off the bull market top checklist, looking for signs of distribution that would imply further weakness. One of my mentors and long-time StockCharts contributor Greg Morris once quipped, “All new highs are bullish… except the last one.”  I’m wondering if that early December high around 6100 may be the last one for a while!

One last thing…

I recently sat down virtually with author and technical analyst Chris Vermeulen to discuss the benefits of following asset flows, the dangers of holding dividend paying stocks during bear markets, how to navigate a potential breakdown in crude oil and energy stocks, and how investing and surfing are more alike than you might think!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

A driver who rammed a car into a crowded Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg, killing at least five people and injuring more than 200, has been identified by authorities as a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian citizen who had lived in Germany for more than a decade and worked as a doctor.

Authorities are working to determine the motive of the attacker, who had a history of making anti-Islam statements and said that he had helped people, particularly women, flee Saudi Arabia.

The suspect first came to Germany in 2006 and had permanent residency in the country, according to Tamara Zieschang, the interior minister of Saxony-Anhalt state, of which Magdenburg is the capital. Zieschang said the man worked as a doctor in Bernburg, a small town about 25 miles south of Magdeburg.

The man is yet to be formally identified, but German media have named him as Taleb A., following the convention in Germany of withholding the full name of suspects in criminal cases.

He was arrested and is thought to have acted alone, according to German authorities.

In a now deleted feed on X apparently belonging to Taleb A., he made anti-Islam statements and self-identified as a Saudi dissident. He spoke openly about renouncing his Islamic faith, expressed sympathy for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and accused Germany of promoting the Islamization of the country.

Germany welcomed more than 1 million refugees and asylum seekers in 2015 and 2016, mostly from the Middle East. Originally praised for opening its doors, Germany has seen support wane for the policy with the rise of the anti-migrant AfD.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the attack after it emerged the suspect was a Saudi national.

The first warning came in 2007 and was connected to concerns held by Saudi authorities that Taleb A. had expressed radical views of varying kinds, the source said.

Saudi Arabia considers the suspect a fugitive and requested his extradition from Germany between 2007 and 2008, the source said, adding that German authorities refused, citing concerns for the man’s safety should he return.

Saudi authorities alleged that the man had harassed Saudis abroad who opposed his political views. They also noted that he had become a supporter of the AfD, and had developed radical anti-Islamic views, the source said.

The German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser on Saturday described the man as “an Islamophobe.” She gave few other details and said that the investigation was at the very beginning, with security authorities looking into the background of the attack. The authorities have not yet released any information about a motive.

Taleb A. appears to be the same man who was in touch with media in the past about his efforts to help people leave Saudi Arabia.

Some experts have already pointed out that the man was an unusual suspect in a mass casualty attack of this type.

“After 25 years in this ‘business’ you think nothing could surprise you anymore. But a 50-year-old Saudi ex-Muslim who lives in East Germany, loves the AfD and wants to punish Germany for its tolerance towards Islamists — that really wasn’t on my radar,” Peter Neumann, professor of security studies at King’s College London, wrote on X.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Semiconductors are at a crossroads, with innovation fueling growth and tariffs threatening profits.  How might you navigate this potentially volatile landscape and identify opportunities without getting burned?

In 2025, analysts predict AI will drive explosive demand in the semiconductor industry, fueling innovation and revenue growth. At the same time, this optimism is tempered by the new administration’s tariff policies, which threaten to disrupt global supply chains, increase costs, and reshape the competitive landscape for chipmakers.

This tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forecasts is best exemplified by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) price action, a reliable proxy for the semiconductor industry. Here’s a weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMH. Congestion narrowing within a wider trading range may indicate that bulls and bears are in temporary equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers showing enough conviction to drive a decisive breakout or breakdown. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There’s a narrowing, range-bound movement between its all-time high near $283 and the swing low of $280 (see blue dotted lines). The increasingly tight congestion range over the last three months, as highlighted by the magenta rectangle, suggests increased indecision among bulls and bears. Despite the temporary standstill, semiconductor stocks are outperforming their tech sector peers (see price performance against XLK) by only 29% and the S&P 500 by 51%.

While AI chip demand will likely see significant growth in the future, the effects of tariffs and reshoring may bring sharp and near-term pain to most chipmakers, particularly semiconductor companies that are most reliant on Asian production. Domestic chipmakers with minimal reliance on overseas manufacturing may fare better under these conditions.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at SMH’s top three holdings—NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)—all of which play a leading role in AI chip development, but have different levels of reliance in the global chip supply chain.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS COMPARING SMH AGAINST ITS TOP THREE HOLDINGS. Note the late jump in AVGO. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

All three of SMH’s top holdings are outperforming their industry peers with NVDA on top, TSM second, and AVGO third. Understanding that late jump in AVGO might require some context (which we’ll get into later).

  • NVDA is the world’s AI chip leader.
  • TSM, is the world’s top chip foundry, and main producer of NVDA’s GPUs.
  • AVGO is a diversified supplier of data center components which are the backbone of AI infrastructure. Unlike NVDA, its business model is less exposed to reshoring effects.

NVIDIA (NVDA): The AI Semiconductor Leader

Take a look at the rounding top pattern on the daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NVDA. Rounding tops are bearish, but tend to break higher more than 50% of the time. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

According to Thomas Bulkowski’s Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, while rounding tops are typically viewed as bearish, more than half the time they break upwards, challenging that assumption. In many cases, the rim on the right is higher than the one on the left. In the case above, the rim is formed by a price bounce off the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). 

Both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are likely to act as strong support unless there is a significant change in the chipmaker’s fundamentals. While NVDA’s uptrend remains intact, momentum seems to be weakening as suggested by the decline in the money flow index (MFI). Keep an eye on this development, especially if it breaks below the 100-day SMA and bounces off the 200-day SMA.

Next, let’s take a look at NVDA’s main chip foundry: TSM.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM): The Foundry

TSM’s daily chart doesn’t look too different from NVDA’s. Remember, TSM is NVDA’s main chip foundry, and so NVDA is highly dependent on TSM (rather than the other way around).

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF TSM. The stock’s price is chugging along with plenty of support. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

You can see the difference between the stock’s volatile rise in price against a gradual decline in the RSI. TSM’s recent price action over the last three months has succumbed to this drop in bullish momentum. 

The stock is reacting strongly to the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a high likelihood of bouncing off these levels again should price continue to decline from the current levels.

Broadcom (AVGO): A More Diversified AI and Semiconductor  Play

Broadcom also uses TSM’s foundry services, but it has a few other foundries in Asia and Europe. Because of its wide range of products and its focus on data centers, AVGO is more diversified and less exposed to the same supply chain risks as NVDA. Perhaps this (plus the company’s optimistic 2025 revenue projection) is why its shares have recently outperformed the other two companies above, hitting an all-time high in late December. 

Let’s take a look at AVGO’s daily chart.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF AVGO. The December gap followed strong company guidance. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AVGO’s uptrend going back to November 2023 runs a similar course to NVDA and TSM. Its uptrend experienced some moments of volatility yet remained relatively sold. Its price fluctuations also reacted strongly to both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, finding support with both.

However, unlike our previous examples, momentum as measured by the RSI appears steady and somewhat cyclical. To get a clearer view of momentum with volume, I added the On Balance Volume (OBV) with a 50-day SMA overlay which shows that buying pressure has steadily been increasing, fueling AVGO’s ascent, and culminating in the bullish jump in December.

Whether or not price falls to fill the gap, you might wait for RSI to dip below the 50-line to better time an entry if you’re looking to go long.

At the Close

The semiconductor industry faces a dynamic and uncertain 2025, with AI demand poised to spur growth while tariff talks threaten to reshape global supply chains and profit margins. Keeping an eye on SMH and monitoring its top holdings—NVDA, TSM, and AVGO—for shifts in momentum and action at key levels is critical if you’re looking to time your trades in this promising space. 


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

At least one person has died after a car plowed into a crowd at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, police have said, according to local public broadcaster MDR.

Several people have also been injured, MDR reported, citing police.

In the video, dozens of people are crowded at the market stalls when the vehicle plows directly into them. Some people can be seen running away from the car in panic, others dive into the stalls.

Bodies and debris are scattered across the narrow lane as the car turns out of the plaza.

Extensive police measures are currently in place at the scene, Magdeburg police said in a post on X.

MDR reported that the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Reiner Haseloff, is on his way to Magdeburg, which is west of Berlin.

Magdeburg is the state capital of Saxony-Anhalt and has a population of about 240,000.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Love Starbucks holiday drinks? This week, you may not get them.

Starbucks Workers United announced baristas will strike starting Friday in three key markets — Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago. 

The union said the move is in response to the coffee chain’s “failure to bring viable economic proposals to the bargaining table” and “to resolve hundreds of outstanding unfair labor practice charges.”

The union, which started organizing in 2021, represents 525 union stores and over 10,500 union workers, according to its website. Starbucks has nearly 10,000 company-owned U.S. stores, The Associated Press reports.

“Since February, Starbucks has repeatedly pledged publicly that they intended to reach contracts by the end of the year — but they’ve yet to present workers with a serious economic proposal,” the group wrote on X. “This week, less than two weeks before their end-of-year deadline, Starbucks proposed no immediate wage increase for union baristas, and a guarantee of only 1.5% wage increases in future years.”

The group said baristas starting Friday morning will embark on five days of escalating strikes that could spread to other cities through Christmas Eve “unless Starbucks honors our commitment to work towards a foundational framework.”

Starbucks, which is headquartered in Seattle, Washington, told NBC News there has been “no significant impact” to its store operations. 

“We are aware of disruption at a small handful of stores, but the overwhelming majority of our US stores remain open and serving customers as normal,” the company said.

In a Tuesday press release the union said it and Starbucks had announced a path forward earlier this year and have advanced dozens of tentative agreements at the table, but “Starbucks has yet to bring a comprehensive economic package to the bargaining table.”

“Starbucks can’t get back on track as a company until it finalizes a fair contract that invests in its workforce. Right now, I’m making $16.50 an hour. Meanwhile, Brian Niccol’s compensation package is worth $57,000 an hour,” Silvia Baldwin, a Philadelphia barista and bargaining delegate, said in a statement referring to Starbucks’ CEO.

“The company just announced I’m only getting a 2.5% raise next year, $0.40 an hour, which is hardly anything. It’s one Starbucks drink per week. Starbucks needs to invest in the baristas who make Starbucks run,” she added.

A Starbucks spokesperson said Workers United delegates “prematurely ended our bargaining session this week.”

Starbucks argued that it offers a “competitive average pay of over $18 per hour, and best-in-class benefits” such as health care, college tuition, paid family leave, and company stock grants.

“Workers United proposals call for an immediate increase in the minimum wage of hourly partners by 64%, and by 77% over the life of a three-year year contract. This is not sustainable,” the company said.

Starbucks said it is ready to continue negotiations.

It comes as the Teamsters union announced Thursday strikes at several Amazon delivery facilities, amid the peak holiday delivery rush.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Uncertainty in the stock market makes it difficult to make investment decisions. When investors sell off stocks, everyone follows without giving it much thought and you’re left trying to figure out which path you should take. We saw this price action in the stock market on Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Investors started to sell their holdings, which intensified toward the last few minutes of the trading day. 

The rate cut didn’t come as a surprise. The market had already priced it in. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about slowing down rate cuts for the next two years led to the massive selloff. Inflationary concerns were one reason which may have heightened investor fear. The S&P 500 ($SPX) fell by 2.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) dropped by 3.56%. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) got hit hard, falling over 4%.

It wasn’t just equities that sold off. Gold prices fell. Silver prices fell. Bond prices fell. Even cryptocurrencies felt the pain. 

So, how damaging was the selloff? Let’s dive into the charts of the broader stock market indexes. 

Equities Hammered Hard

Whenever there’s such a significant fall in equities, it’s natural to think about buying the dip. But before you jump into anything, it’s best to see if the uptrend is still in play. 

From its August low, the S&P 500 has been in an upward trend with a few pullbacks, the deepest one being in early September when it almost reached its 100-day simple moving average or SMA (see chart below). On Wednesday, the index closed below its 50-day SMA toward the low of the day. The daily chart below shows market breadth is declining. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX WITH BREADTH INDICATORS. The index is close to hitting its late November lows, a key support level. If it breaks below that level and market breadth indicators continue to weaken, it could be a bearish signal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The NYSE Advance-Decline Line (!ADLINENYC), the percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average ($SPXA200R), and the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) are all trending lower. That the $BPSPX is below 50 shows that bearish pressure is dominant, which is concerning. 

The weekly chart is more optimistic in that the S&P 500 is still trending higher and above its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). All the moving averages on the chart are trending higher.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 500 INDEX. All moving averages overlaid on the chart are trending higher. The S&P 500 is trading above its 21-day EMA. A break below the EMA would be the first signal of a reversal of a bull market. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The takeaway: Watch the November lows in the daily chart (blue dashed line). A close below this level would mean a break in the “higher highs, higher lows” trend. If the $BPSPX continues to decline and the S&P 500 falls below its November low and 21-week EMA, consider offloading partial positions. 

The Nasdaq Composite has a similar pattern in its chart, although it’s still above its 50-day SMA (see chart below). However, what is concerning about the daily chart of the Nasdaq is that it closed at its November high. A break below this level could break the series of higher highs and higher lows depending on how it unfolds. So watch this level carefully.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE WITH MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS. The Nasdaq has reached its November high. Market breadth indicators are weakening. Keep an eye on this chart. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The NASDAQ Advance-Decline Line (!ADLINENAS), the percent of Nasdaq stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is at 54% and trending lower, and the Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ) are all trending lower with the $BPCOMPQ at 50. If you pull up the weekly chart by changing the Period dropdown menu to weekly and using a five-year range, the trend is still bullish, similar to the weekly chart of the S&P 500.

Fear Gauge Is Running Hot

The rise in fear can be seen in the action in the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) which closed at 27.62, a 74.04% increase. The chart of the S&P 500 vs. the VIX below shows how big of a move it experienced on Wednesday. 

FIGURE 4. S&P 500 VS. THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX). Spikes in the VIX are accompanied by a pullback in the S&P 500. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. A spike of such a magnitude occurred in early August, which is when the S&P 500 pulled back and resumed a very optimistic uptrend. 

Despite the spike in the VIX, investors weren’t flocking to “risk-off” investments. Gold and silver prices fell as did cryptocurrency prices. Treasury yields rose with the 10-year yield at 4.494% and the US dollar surged against other major currencies, especially the euro. 

The Bottom Line

Now that the last FOMC meeting for the year is behind us, there’s not much remaining in terms of economic data except the November Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday. There’s also the Santa Claus Rally to look forward to. So if Wednesday’s chaotic price action is an opportunity to buy the dip, i.e., if the indexes reverse without falling past critical support levels, you could make some end-of-year trades that could turn profitable as we head into the new year.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

At least 35 children were killed and six others critically injured in a crowd crush at a funfair in southwest Nigeria on Wednesday, police said.

Eight people have been arrested for their alleged involvement in the incident at the Islamic school in the city of Ibadan, an Oyo state police spokesperson said in a statement Thursday.

The event’s main sponsor is among those detained, police said.

According to local radio station Agidigbo FM, the organizers of the event – identified as the Women in Need of Guidance and Support (WING) – expected to host 5,000 children under the age of 13 at the free event, where they could win prizes like scholarships.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu expressed his condolences through a statement from his spokesperson, state news agency NAN News reported.

“In this moment of mourning, President Tinubu stands in solidarity with the affected families and offers prayers that the Almighty God will grant peace to the souls of those who have departed in this unfortunate event,” the statement said.

The president also urged the Oyo State Government to take necessary steps to prevent a similar tragedy from occurring, according to NAN.

Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde said it was “a very sad day.”

“We sympathise with the parents whose joy has suddenly been turned to mourning due to these deaths,” Makinde posted on Facebook.

“I want to reassure our people that anyone directly or remotely involved in this disaster will be held accountable. Please remain calm as the security agencies investigate this unfortunate incident.”

The case has been transferred to the homicide section of the state’s criminal investigation department, police said.

“The Oyo State Police Command sympathizes with all the families and loved ones affected by the tragedy and assures the good people of the state that justice will be served accordingly,” the police spokesperson said.

Nigeria, a West African nation home to more than 236 million people, has seen several deadly crowd crushes in recent years.

In February, the Nigeria Customs Service confirmed that an unspecified number of people were trampled to death during a crowd surge as they waited for discounted rice at its office in Lagos, the country’s largest city.

Many children were among 30 people killed in a crowd crush at a church event in the southeastern city of Port Harcourt in 2022, according to police and security officials.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

When athleisure brand Vuori launched in 2015, it was headquartered in a garage, sold only men’s shorts and couldn’t get investors to give it the time of day. 

Now, the Carlsbad, California, retailer is expanding globally, backed by a string of marquee investors including General Atlantic, SoftBank and Norwest Venture Partners, after raising $825 million in November in a funding round that valued the company at $5.5 billion.  

It’s become the envy of incumbents such as Lululemon, Gap’s Athleta and Levi’s Beyond Yoga, and it’s poised to be one of the retail industry’s biggest IPOs when it eventually files to go public, which people close to the company say it plans to do.

“It’s a notable deal for the category it’s in … you haven’t seen many deals in that market at all over the last couple of years, and the deals that have happened have been more, I’d say, challenged, or more at value-oriented situations,” Matthew Tingler, a managing director in Baird’s global consumer and retail investment banking group, said of the recent funding round.

“Vuori’s bringing a lot of excitement and growth to the market,” added Tingler, an expert in the athletic apparel space who wasn’t involved in the transaction. “In ways, they’ve been taking share in that athleisure market broadly … they’re challenging the legacy players of Athleta and Lululemon.” 

As Vuori went from a no-name brand to one of the most highly valued private apparel retailers on the planet, it saw robust sales growth and consistent profitability, winning over consumers in a crowded space with its coastal California take on athleisure.

“Vuori competes on a differentiated product, a differentiated brand, a differentiated store experience, differentiated materials,” Vuori CEO and founder Joe Kudla told CNBC in an interview. “If you were to just survey our customer base [and ask], ‘Why is Vuori so special?’ They would tell you it’s because of our product, it’s because of the comfort, the textile, the fabrics we work with, and the fit. We are all about product, product, product, and that’s ultimately what results in great performance in our industry.” 

Despite its success, Vuori faces challenges ahead. The company operates in a crowded athleisure space that analysts aren’t sure will grow as quickly as it has in the past. Some see it as one of the fastest-growing apparel categories, while others expect it to slow as consumers look to dress up after years of dressing down.

Customers also seem to be worrying about whether Vuori’s products will stay the same as it scales and faces the demands of being a publicly traded company.

“If you go look at message boards right now, the thing that consumers of Vuori are most concerned about is, is the quality of the fabric going to fall?” said Liston Pitman, a strategy director with Eatbigfish and an expert in challenger brands. “Are they going to water down the brand that I love as an exchange for growth?”

Plus, Vuori faces the same issues as other consumer discretionary companies. Retailers have been forced to work harder to win customer dollars, and demand has been unsteady as consumers think twice before buying things that may be wants rather than needs.

Since it is still private, not much is known about Vuori’s financial performance. But analysts estimate that it generates around $1 billion in annual revenue, and the company says it has been profitable since 2017. 

While its sales are a fraction of the $431 billion global athleisure market, Vuori has seen steady growth and has outperformed the overall sportswear market at least since 2020, according to data from Euromonitor and sales estimates from Earnest. As of the end of October, Vuori has grown sales by 23% so far this year at a time when the overall sportswear market is expected to grow by 4.3%. Last year, it grew 44% while the sportswear market expanded by only 2.4%. 

Retail analyst Randy Konik, a managing director with Jefferies, said Vuori and fellow upstart Alo Yoga have been so successful in part because they’re taking share from Lululemon, which he said has alienated its primary customer base as it has expanded into new categories. 

“Five years ago, Alo and Vuori were … nothing burgers, and that’s when Lululemon was growing 20% a year, whatever it is, or more. Today, you look at the numbers and you’re like, wait a second, the business is flat,” said Konikreferring to Lululemon’s largest market, the Americas. “It’s not growing, and yet it’s coinciding with the hypergrowth of Alo and Vuori. So … in my opinion, the data proves that that is a market share issue.”

Analytics firm GlobalData found that Lululemon’s customers are now spending more at Vuori than they did previously. In 2018, 1.2% of Lululemon’s customers shopped at Vuori, but that number grew to 7.8% as of the end of November.

Last week, the longtime category leader gave a cautious outlook for the all-important holiday shopping season as it contends with slowing growth and product missteps. It wasn’t asked about the competitive threats it’s facing but acknowledged that its core customer is slowing down. 

Vuori’s valuation and interest from private equity come as investors flee the consumer sector. Its success has left some industry observers scratching their heads and wondering: How can a leggings and joggers company be worth this much, in this economy? Analysts say it comes down to Vuori’s business model, its ability to grow profitably and its product assortment, which has resonated with shoppers.

Kudla said the company was laser focused on growing profitably from the beginning because it really didn’t have another choice. Unlike other direct-to-consumer brands that were raising piles of cash at the time, investors weren’t interested in the mens-only brand that Kudla was pitching.

So he was forced to bootstrap the company using funding from family and friends. 

“We developed a working capital model that would self-fund the business, and so we were built very counter to the trend of the time, and that resulted in a really great business with a lot of discipline,” said Kudla, who was a CPA for Ernst & Young before he got into fashion. “I managed the entire business through this complicated spreadsheet, so every decision that I made, I could forecast the cash-flow impact six months from today.” 

To save money, Kudla didn’t pay himself for two years, ran the business out of a garage and hired employees who were willing to trade equity for compensation. Perhaps most importantly, he developed partnerships with his suppliers, which alleviated the cash-intensive burden of acquiring inventory and paying for it up front. 

“I started treating our suppliers like they were investors in the business, and really helping them see the vision for what we were building,” said Kudla. “I was able to convince our early factory partners to give us really great terms so that I could receive the inventory, sell it, collect cash from my wholesale partners, or sell it direct to consumer and then pay for the inventory, and that strategy ultimately led me to building a working capital model that self-funded our growth.” 

While Vuori started out as a purely online business, Kudla wasn’t precious about partnering with wholesalers at a time when many founders in the direct-to-consumer space were against the idea. By getting his products on the shelves at REI in the brand’s early days, he was able to build awareness and acquire customers in a way that didn’t drain Vuori’s balance sheet. 

“We got profitable in 2017, we started generating free cash flow … there was no institutional capital involved in our business, no venture money involved in our business, until 2019, when we were already very profitable and on a pretty strong growth trajectory,” said Kudla. 

Years later, Kudla’s approach almost feels prescient. Many of the DTC peers that Vuori came up with are now teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, unable to make the unit economics of their business work. Investors no longer have patience for companies that have no path to profitability.

Now, most brands and retailers recognize that selling only online often doesn’t work. It has proven critical to partner with wholesalers and open up stores, alongside building direct channels online.

“I like how [Vuori is] going about growth,” said Jessica Ramirez, senior research analyst at Jane Hali & Associates. “With REI, it was one of their top accounts, and I feel like it was a different way of going into wholesale, but very targeted wholesale, so knowing that that is a customer that would be purchasing a particular kind of activewear.”

Vuori’s investment from General Atlantic and Stripes in November is further evidence of a robust balance sheet. The deal was structured as a secondary tender offer, which allowed early investors to sell their shares and cash in. None of it went to the balance sheet, and Vuori didn’t need new funding for its aggressive growth plans, which include expanding into Europe and Asia and having 100 stores by 2026, said Kudla. 

“We’re going to continue growing the business the same way we’ve always grown the business, which is very calculated with a lot of discipline,” he said. 

In many ways, the brands jostling for share in the crowded athleisure space can blur together. They all sell leggings, they all sell sports bras, and they’re all looking to win over consumers with their unique blend of comfort, style and performance. The same can be said for the broader apparel industry, which is why having products that stand out separates the industry’s winners and losers.

Fans of Vuori say the brand’s quality, fit, fabric and comfort are what sets it apart from competitors and keeps them coming back. Meanwhile, product missteps at Lululemon have been blamed for a sales slowdown in its largest region, the Americas. 

In the three months ended April 28, Lululemon’s comparable sales in the Americas were flat after the company failed to offer the right color assortment in leggings and the sizes that customers desired. 

In early July, Lululemon launched its new Breezethrough leggings, designed for hot yoga classes, but ended up yanking them from the shelves after it received complaints about the product’s unflattering fit. Its lack of desirable new products is also limiting how much Lululemon’s core customer is spending with the brand, the company said when reporting fiscal third-quarter earnings Dec. 5. The company said it expects its assortment to be back in line with historical levels in 2025, which Truist anticipates will be the “key driver” for better U.S. sales, especially as it laps easier comparisons from the year-ago period. 

“It seems that they’ve snoozed on where the customer is going … you have to remember that today’s consumer isn’t necessarily a loyal consumer,” said Ramirez.

“Fabric does matter, movement matters … if someone you know mentions there’s another brand that, ‘Oh, you know it held me in better, or I was able to run quicker, I didn’t sweat as much, I didn’t feel as gross,’ these very, like, small things that do matter in your performance, people will give them a try.”

— Additional reporting by Natalie Rice

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Today Erin looks at the Broadcom (AVGO) chart and compares it to the NVIDIA (NVDA) chart. She shows us the differences between the two and tells you whether she believes AVGO will be the new NVDA, meaning it will perform as NVDA used to perform with a concerted move up nearly everyday.

Carl analyzes the market and gives you all you need to know going into this trading week. He discusses his thoughts on where the market may be headed in January. Can the rally continue?

After the market overview, Carl covers the Magnificent Seven in the short term and the intermediate term by looking at both the daily and weekly charts for each.

The pair then answer questions posed by audience on OBV construction and a discussion of how we use the Bias Table for short-term analysis. Currently the table is flipping bearish.

Erin covers sector rotation and gives us two sectors to watch moving into this week. Two sectors are in decline but they have both reached very interesting levels of support that could precede an upside reversal.

Finally Erin covers viewers symbol requests.

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01:06 DP Signal Tables

04:22 Semiconductor Chart

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42:04 Symbol Requests


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