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Top CEOs and their companies are pledging to donate millions of dollars to President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural committee, as they seek to get on his good side and make inroads before he takes office.

Some of the planned donations reportedly include $1 million each from Jeff Bezos’ Amazon, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Facebook parent company Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg. Others include $2 million from Robinhood Markets and $1 million each from both Uber and its CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi.

Ford is reportedly coupling its own $1 million donation with a fleet of vehicles.

Hedge fund manager Ken Griffin also said he plans to give $1 million to the tax-exempt inaugural committee, Bloomberg reported. Other donations from finance leaders are reportedly in the works.

Empowered by a decisive electoral victory, Trump has vowed to revamp U.S. economic policy in a way that could have outsized benefits for a few favored industries, like fossil fuels.

At the same time, he has telegraphed the value, both personal and political, that he places on face-to-face meetings and public praise from chief executives of the world’s largest companies.

“EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE MY FRIEND!!!” Trump wrote Thursday in a post on Truth Social, the social media app run by his own tech company.

Many of those CEOs have already made, or are planning to make, trips to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Palm Beach, Florida, resort and de facto transition headquarters, as they seek to gain influence with and access to the incoming administration.

To that end, Trump’s inaugural committee presents a “unique opportunity,” said Brendan Glavin, director of research for the money-in-politics nonprofit OpenSecrets, in an interview.

Inaugural committees, which are appointed by presidents-elect, plan and fund most of the pomp and circumstance that traditionally surrounds the transition of power from one administration to the next.

While the money is ultimately benefiting a recent political candidate, it doesn’t carry the same connotation as a donation to, say, a super PAC, which can fund partisan political activities that risk stoking controversy.

And unlike a direct contribution to a candidate’s campaign, there are no limits on how much an individual — or a corporation or labor group — can give to an inaugural committee.

Moreover, since Trump already won the election, an inaugural contribution carries no risk for a high-profile executive of backing a losing candidate.

“It really is a great opportunity for them to curry favor with the incoming administration,” Glavin said.

While it’s nothing new for corporations and power brokers to shower big money on inaugural committees, experts told CNBC the Trump factor changes the calculus.

“It’s all heightened now,” Glavin said. “None of these people, they don’t want to be Trump’s punching bag for four years.”

Trump’s inaugural committee and his transition team did not respond to requests for comment.

Trump’s 2017 inaugural committee raked in about $107 million, by far the most of any in U.S. history. The previous record had been set in 2009 during the first inauguration of Barack Obama, whose committee raised $53 million.

Trump’s second inauguration is on pace to shatter that record, with pledged contributions already surpassing a $150 million fundraising goal, ABC News reported.

President Joe Biden’s inaugural committee, by comparison, raised nearly $62 million.

“One of the oldest adages in Washington is that if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu, and the price of admission to have a seat at the table keeps going up,” said Michael Beckel, research director of Issue One, a political reform advocacy group.

The boost in funding for Trump’s second inaugural committee comes in part from tech giants, many of whom largely steered clear of supporting his first inauguration.

Other than GoDaddy.com founder Robert Parsons, who gave $1 million, few other leaders in Big Tech donated to Trump’s 2017 committee.

Trump once openly clashed with some of them, including Zuckerberg and Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, a frequent target of the president-elect’s ire.

Not so this time around. As Trump vows to tear up reams of federal regulations, but also continues to accuse Big Tech of stifling competition, industry leaders could have more riding on their relationship with the White House than ever before.

“I’m actually very optimistic,” Bezos said of a second Trump presidency in a Dec. 4 interview at The New York Times’ DealBook conference. “I’m very hopeful. He seems to have a lot of energy around reducing regulation. And my point of view, if I can help him do that, I’m going to help him. Because we do have too much regulation in this country.”

The comments came in the wake of a scandal at The Washington Post in October, when the paper reported that Bezos decided not to publish its editorial board’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump. Bezos in an op-ed defended the paper’s decision to no longer endorse presidential candidates, but the reversal spurred an exodus of subscribers and prompted numerous staffers to resign in protest.

Nowhere is Trump’s newfound friendliness with the tech world more pronounced than in his blossoming relationship with Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who spent more than $250 million helping elect Trump.

Musk, the world’s richest person, has frequently appeared by Trump’s side before and after his election victory, and has reportedly been involved in all aspects of Trump’s transition planning. He and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have been tapped to lead an advisory group tasked with cutting government costs.

This could put OpenAI’s Altman, who is currently embroiled in a breach-of-contract lawsuit brought by Musk, in an awkward position.

Along with his million-dollar inaugural donation, Altman heaped praise on Trump earlier this month. “President Trump will lead our country into the age of AI, and I am eager to support his efforts to ensure America stays ahead,” he said.

Craig Holman, government affairs lobbyist for the progressive nonprofit Public Citizen, told CNBC that these figures “very much fear that Donald Trump may take retribution against them.”

“So they’re throwing money” at his feet “in order to curry favor,” Holman said.’

Four days after the presidential election, Trump announced the formation of the “Trump Vance Inaugural Committee, Inc.,” a 501(c)(4) nonprofit. It is co-chaired by real estate investor Steve Witkoff and former Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, who is also Trump’s pick to lead the Small Business Administration.

Reince Priebus, who was one of Trump’s White House chiefs of staff during his first term, said in an X post that he has been tapped to serve as the committee’s finance chair.

Priebus also shared a screenshot of an invitation that listed the names of other finance chairs. They include Miriam Adelson, the GOP megadonor who spent $100 million this year on a pro-Trump super PAC, and billionaire Trump donor Diane Hendricks.

Inaugural committees are required to publicly disclose the names of donors who give $200 or more, but those filings aren’t due until 90 days after the inaugural ceremony.

If the committee has a surplus after all the festivities, finding out just how much is left can be a challenge.

Trump’s 2017 inauguration was a smaller affair than Obama’s in 2009, although Trump raised more than twice as much money for his as Obama had. As a result, Trump’s committee was widely expected to have tens of millions of dollars left over after it paid for balls and hotels.

But years after the fact, it was unclear what happened to much of that money.

Federal filings show that roughly a quarter of all the funds raised, $26 million, were paid to a newly created firm that was run by an advisor to first lady Melania Trump.

“We take a look through the history of the financing of inaugurations, and clearly it comes from very large donors, wealthy special interests and corporations, almost all of whom have business pending before the federal government,” said Holman, of Public Citizen.

He added, “This is a real cesspool of buying favors.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A prison riot in Mozambique’s capital Maputo left 33 people dead and 15 injured, the country’s police general commander Bernardino Rafael said on Wednesday.

About 1,534 people escaped from the prison in the incident but 150 of them have now been recaptured, Rafael said.

Mozambique is experiencing escalating civil unrest linked to October’s disputed election, which extended long-ruling party Frelimo’s stay in power. Opposition groups and their supporters claim the vote was rigged.

While Rafael blamed protests outside the prison for encouraging the riot, Justice Minister Helena Kida told local private broadcaster Miramar TV that the unrest was started inside the prison and had nothing to do with protests outside.

“The confrontations after that resulted in 33 deaths and 15 injured in the vicinity of the jail.” Rafael told a media briefing.

The identities of those killed and injured were unclear.

Mozambique’s interior minister said on Tuesday that at least 21 people were killed in unrest after the country’s top court on Monday confirmed Frelimo’s victory.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Nissan will be the victim of cost-cutting “carnage” if it combines forces with Japanese peer Honda, former Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn told CNBC on Tuesday.

“I think, without any doubt, Honda is going to be in the driver’s seat, which is very sad to see after having led Nissan for 19 years [and] brought Nissan to the forefront of the industry, to see that they’re going to be the victim of a carnage, because there is total duplication between Nissan and Honda,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Ghosn, who once led three automakers as part of the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance, has been residing in Lebanon after being arrested in Japan in November 2018 and fleeing trial on charges of financial crimes. He denies misconduct.

“There is practically no complementarity here, which means, if they want to make synergy it is going to be through maybe cost reduction, duplication of plan, duplication of technology, and we know exactly who’s going to pay the price of it. It’s going to be the minor partner, and it’s going to be Nissan,” Ghosn said.

Nissan had greater complementarities with France’s Renault, Ghosn estimated, referencing a long-standing partnership that has been largely unwound.

Speculation about a potential Honda and Nissan merger began earlier this month, and the two companies confirmed the official start of talks over a business integration during a news conference on Monday. Under current proposals, a holding company would act as the parent of both firms and be listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with Honda — which has a market capitalization around four times that of Nissan — nominating most board members of the new entity. Nissan’s strategic partner Mitsubishi is also engaged in talks over joining the group.

A $54 billion Nissan-Honda group would leapfrog South Korea’s Hyundai to become the world’s third-largest automaker by vehicle sales, behind Japan’s Toyota and Germany’s Volkswagen. The integrated group would also represent a landmark in automotive industry consolidation, which has been long expected in both Japan and worldwide as businesses struggle to shoulder the development costs of electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology.

Executives at both Honda and Nissan on Monday stressed that a combined company would be able to share the intelligence and resources necessary to compete in the EV transition and deliver economies of scale, boosting operating profit to a projected 3 trillion yen ($19.1 billion) in the long term.

Nissan is embarking on the ambitious merger while simultaneously undertaking a deep restructure it announced in November, which will reduce global production capacity by a fifth and cut 9,000 jobs.

Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe on Monday acknowledged that some shareholders may feel his company would be supporting struggling Nissan as part of the deal, but stressed that the business integration talks will “not come to fruition” if the two automakers fail to stand on their own.

Ghosn nevertheless told CNBC that the merger plan suggests “Nissan is in panic mode, looking for somebody to save them from the situation, because they are unable to generate the solution by themselves.”

He expressed “high doubts” that the turnaround at Nissan will be successful, without providing details.

Kei Okamura, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, echoed the sentiment that details of the merger plan still need to be ironed out.

“If you’re an investor you’re going to be thinking about the three to five earnings outlook. What was announced [Monday] was the near term, so the timeline, and the long-term vision. The only issue is how is this merged entity going to get there, and that’s where there are a lot of uncertainties ahead,” Okamura told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.

“The post-merger integration is going to be absolutely essential … unless these companies are able to really full integrate themselves together in terms of the people, the assets and of course the culture, these deals have the potential to unwind, and we have to take into consideration that this deal may not happen if [Nissan] doesn’t come through with its turnaround program,” Okamura added.

Nissan declined to comment on this story beyond its statement out on Monday. Honda did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

In today’s free DecisionPoint Trading Room Carl discusses volume spikes and how we have to analyze big volume spikes carefully to determine whether they express a confirmation of a move or whether they are a special case and do not really provide insight.

Carl goes over the signal tables and notes there are quite a few signals getting ready to change. The Bias Table reveals short-term weakness.

A complete market review follows with a look at the SPY and all the relevant DP indicators. Carl covers not only the market, but also the Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Yields and Bonds among other asset classes.

After market coverage, Carl walks us through the Magnificent Seven’s charts to find strength and weakness in the short and intermediate terms with a look at both the daily and weekly charts.

Erin takes the show over and covers the current configuration of the sectors to determine where sector rotation is occurring. Defensive areas of the market are not performing very well so investors don’t seem to be hedging bets just yet.

The pair finish the program with a review of viewers symbol requests that included AMD, AVGO and PLTR.

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15:05 Magnificent Seven

23:26 Questions

30:20 Sector Rotation

39:34 Symbol Requests


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Haiti’s online media association said two reporters were killed and several others were wounded in a gang attack on Tuesday on the reopening of Port-au-Prince’s biggest public hospital.

Street gangs have taken over an estimated 85% of Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, and they forced the closure of the General Hospital early this year. Authorities had pledged to reopen the facility Tuesday but as journalists gathered to cover the event, suspected gang members opened fire in a vicious Christmas Eve attack.

Robest Dimanche, a spokesman for the Online Media Collective, identified the dead journalists as Markenzy Nathoux and Jimmy Jean. Dimanche said an unspecified number of reporters had also been wounded in the attack, which he blamed on the Viv Ansanm coalition of gangs.

Haiti’s interim president, Leslie Voltaire, said in an address to the nation that journalists and police were among the victims of the attack. He did not specify how many casualties there were, or give a breakdown for the dead or wounded.

“I send my sympathies to the people who were victims, the national police and the journalists,” Voltaire said, pledging “this crime is not going to go unpunished.”

A video posted online by the reporters trapped inside the hospital showed what appeared to be two lifeless bodies of men on stretchers, their clothes bloodied. One of the men had a lanyard with a press credential around his neck.

Radio Télé Métronome initially reported that seven journalists and two police officers were wounded. Police and officials did not immediately respond to calls for information on the attack.

Johnson “Izo” André, considered Haiti’s most powerful gang leader and part of a gang known as Viv Ansanm, which that has taken control of much of Port-au-Prince, posted a video on social media claiming responsibility for the attack.

The video said the gang coalition had not authorized the hospital’s reopening.

Haiti has seen journalists targeted before. In 2023, two local journalists were killed in the space of a couple of weeks — radio reporter Dumesky Kersaint was fatally shot in mid-April that year, while journalist Ricot Jean was found dead later that month.

In July, former Prime Minister Garry Conille visited the Hospital of the State University of Haiti, more widely known as the General Hospital, after authorities regained control of it from gangs.

The hospital had been left ravaged and strewn with debris. Walls and nearby buildings were riddled with bullet holes, signaling fights between police and gangs. The hospital is across the street from the national palace, the scene of several battles in recent months.

Gang attacks have pushed Haiti’s health system to the brink of collapse with looting, setting fires, and destroying medical institutions and pharmacies in the capital. The violence has created a surge in patients and a shortage of resources to treat them.

Haiti’s health care system faces additional challenges during the rainy season, which is likely to increase the risk of water-borne diseases. Poor conditions in camps and makeshift settlements have heightened the risk of diseases like cholera, with over 84,000 suspected cases in the country, according to UNICEF.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The toy industry is headed for its second consecutive annual sales decline, but it’s got one thing propping it up: colorful, interlocking plastic bricks.

At a time when toy companies are struggling to match the massive gains of pandemic-era sales, Lego is growing rapidly. The Danish company saw revenue jump 13% in the first six months of the year and continues to snap up market share.

“When you look at toy sales, Lego has just been driving all the growth in the industry this year,” said Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM.

After coming to the brink of bankruptcy in the early 2000s, Lego has reshaped its business and diversified its customer base, helping it to elevate sales even in inflationary market conditions.

Lego has posted positive annual revenue growth in each of the past six years.

Its strategy has involved delving into the world of licensing, catering to adults as well as kids, tapping into the digital gaming world, partnering with studios and streamers to bring Lego content to consumers and building manufacturing sites close to distribution hubs to smooth the supply chain.

Recent standouts among its tried-and-true portfolio are newly emphasized “passion points,” kits that appeal to a wide variety of consumers, from those obsessed with franchises such as Star Wars and Harry Potter to car enthusiasts and animal lovers.

“Lego has consistently bucked the trend the past few years,” said James Zahn, editor in chief of The Toy Book. “When other companies go down, Lego tends to go up.”

Zahn noted that Lego’s ability to be “ahead of the curve” has allowed it to be more nimble during times of inflation, as consumers tighten their purse strings, and to navigate upheaval in the theatrical entertainment industry and even looming tariff increases.

“I think, perhaps, the overarching story here is that they really are, it seems, like they’re two to three steps ahead of everybody else,” Zahn said.

From miniature models of Emerald City from “Wicked” to a version of Wednesday and Enid’s dorm room in the Jenna Ortega-led “Wednesday,” Lego has tapped into pop culture to bring fan-favorite stories to life in brick form.

Licensing has long been an important strategy for toy companies. Pulling from existing and upcoming intellectual property from movies and television shows allows brands such as Lego to cater to an already robust and engaged consumer.

The Lego shop in Paris on Nov. 23.Stéphane Mouchmouche / AFP / Getty Images

Lego’s first licensed partnership was in 1999 when it linked up with Lucasfilm to bring Star Wars sets to the public. Some of these kits were tied to the release of “Star Wars: Episode I — The Phantom Menace,” while others celebrated vehicles and characters from the original trilogy of films.

“Lego embraced adults, long before we started saying ‘kidults,’ and they’ve managed to continue that in new ways,” said Zahn.

Over the past two decades, Lego has worked with hundreds of other partners to translate the likes of Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Ghostbusters, Marvel, DC, Jurassic Park and Pixar into building blocks.

More recently, the company has launched kits such as the Sanderson sisters’ house from “Hocus Pocus” and even a “Jaws” set featuring the iconic shark taking down Quint’s boat.

“For the Lego brand, [we’ve seen] tremendous years of growth,” said Julia Goldin, chief product and marketing officer at Lego. “We made a very deliberate decision to unlock our potential with many new audiences, double down on the audiences that we already had and really ensure that we are very connected.”

Lego isn’t stopping at franchise-based sets.

The company has worked to design different types of sets that cater to new audiences, ones that might not have otherwise bought or built a Lego set, Zahn said. This includes cityscape sets featuring skylines from London to New York, brick versions of famous paintings such as Vincent van Gogh’s “Starry Night” and Leonardo da Vinci’s “Mona Lisa” as well as a line of botanicals.

Goldin noted that Lego is “investing in bringing in new audiences to the portfolio” and creating more products for them.

People take pictures of the lifesize Lego Technic McLaren Formula One race car in Singapore on Sept. 23, 2022.Roslan Rahman / AFP / Getty Images file

That’s why Lego has partnered with Formula 1 to create a line of F1-inspired sets that range from Duplo kits for preschool children all the way to collectible sets for adults. The partnership will also span Lego’s digital platforms, and the toy company will have a presence at future F1 auto racing events.

Goldin said previous car products, including a McLaren Lego set, performed well at retail, giving Lego confidence to delve deeper into the auto racing space.

“We always start with the audience,” she explained. “We’re always looking at, what are kids into? And we saw that F1 was one of the No. 1 most growing passions among younger kids, and also growing globally and attracting a lot of new audiences, especially women and families.”

Attracting new consumers has allowed Lego to drive revenue and helped to counterbalance softness in the theatrical realm.

Much of the toy industry’s current sales woes can be attributed to the disrupted pipeline in Hollywood production. A global pandemic followed by labor strikes left Tinsel town with fewer new releases that could have served as the basis for breakout toys.

The lack of kids movies, in particular, meant toy companies were not producing as many new action figures, roleplay items and other movie tie-ins.

But in 2023, Lego offered 780 products, around 50% of which were new items, on par with recent years.

At the same time, Lego has expanded beyond its retail shelf space.

The company has launched several theatrical features of its own, partnered with streamers such as Disney+ to bring Marvel and Star Wars content to the small screen and even launched its own vertical within Epic Games’ popular Fortnite game.

The expanding portfolio has kept Lego at the forefront of consumers’ minds, given them alternative ways to engage with the brand and driven incremental retail purchases.

“We have to remember that kids, they grow up,” said Goldin. “So there’s a new generation coming all the time. I think the next five years we’ll see even more digitalization and interactivity coming into the different experiences that we can create.”

Goldin said with Fortnite, the company aimed to go beyond sets and create an experience. Within the larger game of Fortnite, players can participate in a Lego-based world where they construct digital Lego buildings, battle against creatures, customize their online mini figure and socialize with other Lego fans.

Lego CEO Niels Christiansen has repeatedly touted the importance of meeting kids where they are, noting during previous earnings reports that the company is competing for children’s time and attention. Being relevant to them and in spaces that they already occupy has translated back to sales of physical Lego kits.

It is a similar strategy to the one Lego has employed in partnering with Disney+ for several Star Wars and Marvel animated shows and in its recent theatrical release of a feature-length animated documentary about Pharrell Williams called “Piece by Piece.”

“We felt [‘Piece by Piece’] really was something that was super original,” said Jill Wilfert, head of global entertainment partners and content at Lego.

“We want to attract a broader audience that’s going to be engaged with the brand,” Wilfert added. “So, this was something we thought would help us get there. And when we do entertainment for us, it’s really about doing those things that help us really convey the values of the brand in a super entertaining and relevant way, but it’s also something that families, people, friends, can experience together.”

Wilfert said Lego has several theatrical projects in development that could arrive on the big screen in the coming years.

In the meantime, the company plans to continue releasing episodes and shorts tied to existing shows that air on Netflix, Nickelodeon and YouTube.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

I had no idea the Fed could be such expert wafflers. But, as each month passes, it’s becoming clearer. The overall stock market trend, despite all the back-and-forth, yo-yo Fed decisions over the past 6 months, remains to the upside. Need proof? Check out this weekly S&P 500 chart for the past year:

Now, if you weren’t aware of any news, would you think any differently about this pullback to the 20-week EMA than prior tests to the same level? There was a volume spike, but keep in mind it was December monthly options expiration week. Quad-witching months (March, June, September, and December) typically are accompanied by heavier volume. The Friday market recovery occurred before any significant breakdown on this chart, which I find bullish. I view the stock market action from December 21st through December 31st to be the period where we normally see a “Santa Claus rally” – more on that below.

The Fed has made it clear in the past that they’ve been “data-dependent.” In the latest FOMC policy decision and subsequent press conference, however, Fed Chief Powell indicated that they’ve cut the number of anticipated rate cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2, because committee members feel that core inflation could be higher than they previously thought back in September, when the first rate cut was announced.

Here’s a problem I have, though. On Thursday, November 14th, the Associated Press reported the following:

The Fed acknowledged in this article that inflation remained persistent and above the Fed’s target 2% level. That day, Powell suggested that inflation may remain stuck somewhat above the Fed’s target level in coming months. But he reiterated that inflation should eventually decline. Given those November 14th remarks, if the Fed was concerned about inflation remaining elevated, then why not change their tune on 2025 interest rate cuts at the November 6-7 Fed meeting. If they’re truly “data dependent”, then what data changed from November 14th until the next Fed meeting on December 17-18 to prompt 2025 interest rate policy change?

Can I have a waffle, please?

Odds of a Santa Claus Rally

Again, I consider the Santa Claus rally to be from December 21st through December 31st, so let’s look at how many times this period has actually moved higher:

  • S&P 500: 58 of the last 74 years since 1950 (annualized return: +40.50%)
  • NASDAQ: 43 of the last 53 years since 1971 (annualized return: +61.80%)
  • Russell 2000: 31 of the last 37 years since 1987 (annualized return: +64.57%)

Based upon history, the odds of a Santa Claus rally is 78.4%, 81.1%, and 83.8% on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, respectively. And you can see the annualized return for this period in the parenthesis above. I’d say there’s a ton of historical performance to suggest the odds that we’ll rally from here until year end are rather strong.

Nothing is ever a guarantee, however.

Max Pain

In my opinion, the media is promoting the idea that inflation is re-igniting and that the Fed is becoming more hawkish. I believe last week’s selling is due to EXACTLY what I talked about with our EarningsBeats.com members during our December Max Pain event on Tuesday. There was a TON of net in-the-money call premium and the big Wall Street firms aided their market-making units by telling us how bad the Fed’s actions and words are for the stock market. That Wednesday drop saved market makers an absolute FORTUNE. We pointed out to our members the downside market risk that existed, because of max pain. A day later, VOILA! It’s magic! The crazy afternoon selling was panicked selling at its finest, with the Volatility Index (VIX) soaring an astounding 74% in 2 hours! On Thursday and Friday, the VIX retreated back into the 18s (from 28) as if nothing ever happened.

There’s a reason why I preach every single month about options expiration and this was just another example of legalized thievery by the market makers. Let’s give them another golf clap.

MarketVision 2025

It’s almost time for my 2025 forecast, which will be a big part of our Saturday, January 4, 2025, 10:00am ET event. This year’s MV event, “The Year of Diverging Returns”, will feature myself and David Keller, President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research. Many of you know Dave from StockCharts and also from his Market Misbehavior podcast. I’m looking forward to having Dave join me as we dissect what we believe is likely to transpire in 2025. For more information on the event and to register, CLICK HERE!

Happy holidays and I hope to see you there!

Tom

A Chinese court has issued a suspended death sentence to a man who rammed his car into crowds outside a primary school in southern China last month, injuring more than two dozen people in one of several violent attacks that has recently rattled the country and prompted officials to ramp up security measures.

The driver, named as Huang Wen, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve by a court in Changde city in Hunan province, state news agency Xinhua reported Monday.

Under Chinese law, the reprieve means Huang’s penalty can be commuted to life imprisonment, subject to his conduct during the two-year period.

Huang was arrested on site after injuring 30 people, including 18 students, on the morning of November 19, according to the court.

The court said Huang launched the attack to vent his frustration after suffering investment losses and conflicts with family members.

Huang got out of his vehicle after crashing it into people and attacked bystanders with a weapon before being apprehended, according to the court.

Another video showed multiple people, including adults, lying on the road, apparently injured. Police could be seen handcuffing a man in front of a vehicle.

Images circulating online of the incident were quickly wiped from social media platforms, while comment sections on posts related to the incidents were disabled.

“Huang Wen chose an unspecified large number of innocent primary school students as his main targets, demonstrating a despicable motive and extreme malice,” the court said in a statement.

Spate of attacks

The incident in Changde came just over a week after China saw its deadliest known attack in a decade, when 35 people were killed after a man plowed his car into crowds exercising at an outdoor sports center in the southern city of Zhuhai.

The suspect, a 62-year-old man, was apprehended while trying to flee the scene. An initial investigation suggested he was unhappy with the outcome of a divorce settlement, according to police.

Eight people were also killed and 17 others injured in a mass stabbing on a college campus in eastern China on November 16.

Sudden episodes of violence targeting random members of the public – including children – have surged across China in recent months as economic growth stutters, unnerving a public long accustomed to low violent crime rates and ubiquitous surveillance.

Some social media users have taken to warning each other to be cautious of people becoming more desperate and unstable, calling the recent attacks an act of “revenge against society.”

Public discontent has been mounting in China over the country’s flailing economy, which is grappling with numerous woes from an ailing property sector to low consumer confidence and high youth unemployment.

Authorities have rolled out some stimulus measures, but many experts say they are not enough to boost much-needed domestic demand and revive the economy.

The recent outbursts of violence have unnerved China’s top officials.

In response to the Zhuhai attack, Chinese leader Xi Jinping urged officials to “prevent risks at the source” and “promptly resolve conflicts and disputes” to prevent such incidents from happening again.

Last month, China’s top judge called on court officials to hand out swift and severe punishment for violent attacks on the public.

The country’s top prosecutor also pledged last month to “resolve conflicts, manage risks and maintain social stability” and maintain “zero tolerance” on crimes that endanger the safety of students.

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A smart investor listens to the stock market and this week’s stock market action was a perfect example of why this is important. 

It was a roller-coaster week in the stock markets leading many investors to quickly sell holdings when there was a big selloff and scramble to go long again on Friday when the broader stock market indexes turned higher. This is why it’s a good idea to always look at a longer time frame chart to get a sense of the long-term trend before making hasty decisions. 

If you pull up a weekly chart of any of the three major indexes you’ll see that the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trending higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is also doing the same but it’s just hanging in there by a whisker.

The Ups and Downs

Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday sent investors into selloff mode which spilled over into Thursday. But Friday’s slightly lighter-than-expected November PCE may have reversed investor sentiment. The broader stock market indexes moved higher spreading some holiday cheer to an otherwise gloomy week. 

What made the market move higher? It doesn’t make sense to look for a reason for the reversal in sentiment. Remember, it’s best to listen to the market and follow along. That said, a few interesting data points are worth noting.

The Federal Reserve indicated their focus was on a cooling of the labor market in their last few meetings. However, Wednesday’s comments from Chairman Powell suggested that the labor market is doing fine now but the Fed’s focus has switched to inflation. That may have made investors nervous and triggered the massive selling we witnessed on Wednesday. Friday’s light November PCE may have been a sigh of relief that brought back the optimistic sentiment. 

Despite the optimistic sentiment, one important news we can’t lose sight of is the possibility of a US government shutdown. A shutdown doesn’t necessarily impact the stock market but there may be inconveniences such as a reduction in government services that may send ripples through the economy.

The Year-End Party

As 2024 winds down, there will likely be very light trading days but there are some important events that unfold at the end of the year. There’s the January Effect which is when small-cap stocks start rallying. Small-cap stocks got a boost post US election but since late November they’ve been sliding lower. The daily chart of iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) shows the small-cap trend is still bearish. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF IWM. Small cap stocks took a big hit in December. Look for the full stochastic oscillator to cross above the 20 level with some follow-through to confirm their seasonal rally. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The full stochastic oscillator is deep in oversold territory and a cross above the 20 level would be encouraging for small-cap stocks. But there needs to be follow-through for the small caps to have a bullish rally.  

In addition to the January Effect, there’s the eagerly awaited Santa Claus rally, which is supposed to start next week. Friday’s price action may have reignited the possibility of having Santa show up this year. But I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet. 

If you look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, you’ll see that the three market breadth indicators displayed in the lower panels had started declining in late November, which should have signaled that the market was ripe for a selloff.

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 HOLDS ON TO SUPPORT. Friday’s price action may look slightly bullish but it needs more follow-through to confirm a reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What is concerning is that Friday’s price action didn’t change the market breadth narrative. So even though Friday’s rise was sizeable, with a bullish engulfing pattern that closed at the 50-day simple moving average, I wouldn’t rush to buy the dip just yet and certainly not on triple-witching Friday. For all you know, there could have been some short-covering going on. I’ll need to see more follow-through of the upside move before adding more positions to my portfolio. At least the S&P 500 stayed above the support of its mid-November lows.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW) vs. the S&P 500 gives you an idea of how dominant the heavily weighted stocks influence the index.

FIGURE 3: S&P 500 VS S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX. The less-heavy weighted stocks in the S&P 500 are lagging the S&P 500. The equal-weighted index is trading below its 100-day moving average and has a long way to go before re-establishing its uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

$SPXEW is trading below its 100-day SMA. Note that Friday’s high came close to the 100-day SMA. A close above the 100-day SMA would be the first sign of a trend reversal in the equal-weighted index. But one day’s action doesn’t make a trend. A series of higher highs and higher lows needs to be established before a trend has indeed reversed. It would be more confirming if the non-Mag Seven stocks showed signs of catching up with the big S&P 500 index.

Volatility Pulls Back 

One encouraging point to end the week is the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed below 20 (see chart below). Investors were getting so complacent towards the end of November but if you had noticed the VIX creeping higher, you’d have seen the selloff coming. 

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX). The VIX was at very low levels from November but it slowly started moving higher signaling that investors were getting fearful. This led to Wednesday’s spike. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The pattern in the chart of the VIX shows that a similar pattern occurred from June to July, right before the August spike. Could a similar scenario unfold this time?

The Mark Twain quote, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” explains it so well. So as you navigate the stock market, listen to the rhythm and follow its lead. 

The bottom line: Set up your Dashboard panels on the StockCharts platform and get a bird’s eye view of the stock market.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 1.99% for the week, at 5930.85, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.25% for the week at 42,840.26; Nasdaq Composite down 1.78% for the week at 19,572.60
  • $VIX up 32.95% for the week, closing at 18.36.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Reddit Inc. (RDDT); Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • November Durable Goods Orders
  • November New Home Sales
  • October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

She arrived in London with just one suitcase, full of mostly children’s clothes, and her young daughter in tow. Her home engulfed by war, Ukrainian mother Yana Felos found herself in the United Kingdom in April 2022 with no friends, no family and no community.

“I just started a new life from scratch,” recalled Felos, 34, who fled Russia’s full-scale invasion to come live with a host family – strangers at the time – who offered to take in Ukrainian refugees.

After close to three years of war, the situation has flipped. Felos says she has nothing to return to in Ukraine.

Felos’ last connection to Ukraine was her husband – but he could not leave and after she was abroad for so long, they recently finalized their divorce.

“He kept saying that the war would be over… wait a little, wait a little. The war will be over soon, and we will be together,” Felos said. But she gave up hope a long time ago that Ukraine would ever be safe enough to raise a family there.

Felos and her daughter are among the 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees who remain abroad, mostly in Europe, their lives mired in uncertainty.

Every day, she thinks about what will happen if the British government doesn’t extend her refugee visa in 2025. “There is no such thing as a backup plan,” she said.

Meanwhile, she has been building a life in London – securing her own apartment and a job teaching English at a lifelong learning center. Post-divorce, she has no intention of returning to Ukraine and wants to focus instead on opportunities to give her 6-year-old daughter Alisa a brighter future.

As communities become more fragmented, and the economy struggles, the Ukrainian government wants to encourage those who fled as refugees, most of them women and children, to return. It’s setting up a Ministry of National Unity tasked with creating programs and incentives to encourage people overseas to come home.

“We can’t pressure, push people to come back. I can give very loud message to Ukrainians who are abroad to come and help, to work in defense industry, to help our soldiers, to pay taxes, to support Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an October press conference.

It comes as Ukraine grapples with boosting national morale, among both civilians and troops on the frontlines, many who have been unable to rotate out to have time off.

Last month, Zelensky spoke about the need to end the conflict in 2025, saying, “from our side, we must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.” Incoming Trump administration officials in the United States have also been weighing proposals to stop the war.

As it drags on, though, Ukraine appears increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of a hollowed-out population, and the future ramifications of a brain-drain.

“Every month of the ‘hot’ phase of the war leads to more people adapting abroad and more destruction here, so fewer people will return,” said Ella Libanova, an economics professor and director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

And in the nearer term, it’s possible that more Ukrainians could leave.

The overall security situation remains difficult, with Ukraine hit by a recent surge in Russian ballistic missile strikes, and drone attacks increasing each month. Russia launched 2,434 drones in November alone.

On one of her return visits to see her former husband in Ukraine, Felos recalls telling her daughter that the sounds of nearby explosions were fireworks.

Russia also continues to bombard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter arrives and residential areas are regularly hit. The Kyiv School of Economics estimates that as of January 2024, almost 250,000 buildings had been damaged and destroyed, including 222,600 private houses and 27,000 apartment buildings. In a significant number of cities, more than half the housing stock has been damaged.

Even so, many Ukrainians are aching to go back.

For some, the life they once built in Ukraine feels too substantial to simply abandon. People saved their whole lives to buy homes, build businesses and get professional qualifications there.

“It’s been called the most professional refugee wave in recent (history),” Voronovych said, adding that most are now underemployed, working “low-paid jobs” that don’t match their capabilities.

For some Ukrainians, the decision to return has less to do with economics or government incentives, and everything to do with the practicalities of everyday life – mothers are waiting for schools to reopen, or for schools operating underground to protect students from Russian attacks to return to normal.

Victoria Rybka, 40, from the city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, spent the first few weeks of the war sheltering in a basement with her two young children, before fleeing with them to Europe. But in Germany, one of her daughters struggled to communicate in school, and her other daughter developed a skin condition, believed to be stress-related.

Just two months later, Rybka decided to return, feeling a pull to return to her job in the police force and to her family.

“I can’t leave my husband. We’ve been through a lot together,” Rybka said.

Kharkiv was eerily empty at the time, with mostly men and elderly people who stayed behind, she said. Only one other mother in their block of flats came back in the early days of war, but more have since trickled home as schools reopened underground.

“Everyone makes their own choice,” she acknowledged. “I made my choice – this is my home.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com