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Gold and Silver Are Crushing the S&P 500! Here’s What You Need To Know Now!

5 Mins Read

There’s been a lot of wild speculation surrounding gold’s bullish run. When you consider a gold investment, you’re likely to think of the more common factors that come into play: inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank demand. 

But there’s more to the mix now, especially in light of the Trump administration’s latest initiatives and policies. These new developments are spurring speculations that are likely to change the context surrounding how investors view gold. Here are a few key things to think about:

  • Around 12.5 million ounces of gold have been imported into the US since last November.
  • President Trump announced a possible audit of Fort Knox gold reserves which hasn’t been done since the early 1970s (is it all still there?).
  • The US government’s gold valuations remain at an outdated $42.22 an ounce.

The big rumor (keyword: rumor) is that gold is due for a revaluation. Will Trump use the revaluation to boost the value of the Treasury’s holdings, possibly paying down the national debt? Will his administration attempt a partial return to the gold standard? Will the gold be used to counter China’s reported attempt at launching a gold-backed currency to challenge the US dollar? 

Whatever the case may be, a full revaluation is likely to drive bullish sentiment in gold, sending prices higher. If the government sells gold to weaken the dollar, you can expect some short-term price dips before a rebound. And if, by any chance, the Fort Knox audit reveals a shortfall, then that’s bad news for the economy and markets but good news for gold, which will likely send prices skyrocketing.

To get some near-term context, let’s see how gold has been performing over the last year relative to silver, commodities in general, and the S&P 500.  

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF GOLD, SILVER, COMMODITIES MARKETS, AND THE S&P 500. Gold and silver outperformed both the broader stock and commodities markets over the past year. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It turns out that both gold and silver have been outperforming the broader equities and commodities markets.

Let’s take a long-term view of gold. Below is a weekly chart. 

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. There are no signs of topping yet, though its ascent has grown increasingly steep. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If volume precedes price, then accumulation, as shown by the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) on the chart, has stayed well ahead of it for a little over three years. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may be registering as “overbought” but the reliability of this indicator in the current environment is anyone’s guess.

Trump’s policy blitz is transforming the political and economic landscape, and it brings certain shocks that can make technical and fundamental analysis more fluid. For now, there are no clear signs of topping, which makes it difficult for anyone interested in finding an entry point. So, let’s zoom in on a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. There are still no signs of a top except for the declining buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There are still no clear signs of near-term weakness, aside from a slight drop in buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If gold pulls back, the $2,900 high will likely serve as the first support level. Additional support zones, marked by the magenta lines, align with key swing highs and lows based on the Zig Zag lines.

The final three levels define a broad trading range and coincide with the Volume by Price indicator, highlighting areas of concentrated trading activity where support is most likely to hold. If prices retreat, these levels will be crucial to watch for a potential rebound. So, right now, it’s a matter of waiting for a pullback.

Silver is another asset that has outperformed commodities and the broader market. Might the grey metal present a tradable opportunity? Below is a daily chart to consider.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. The grey metal has room to run but watch your entry point. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The RSI indicates that silver has more upside to go before reaching an overbought level. Note the relative performance window that I plotted in a manner that replicates the well-known gold/silver ratio (lower panel) . 

Historically, this ratio has averaged around 65:1 since the 1970s, meaning it typically takes 65 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold. Note that every time the ratio reaches the 90-line silver tends to rally. 

Silver is currently rallying, but is another entry point on the horizon? Possibly, but patience is key. This relative performance setup highlights the value of the gold/silver ratio in identifying potential silver entry points, whether for short-term trades or long-term positions.

At the Close

Monitor “spot” $GOLD and $SILVER by adding them to your ChartLists. However, you may be interested in entering trades using their ETF equivalents in GLD and SLV. The prices will differ from their spot price, but the chart patterns that define your entry will be highly correlated, given a few slight adjustments.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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In World news

How the world changed in a month

5 Mins Read

President Donald Trump spent the first month of his second term on an extraordinary mission — dismantling the global system the United States spent the past 80 years building.

It was always theoretically possible that the West could lose its resonance as World War II and the Cold War became increasingly distant memories. But no one expected to see a US president wielding the ax.

When Trump won last year’s election, there was a sense among some western diplomats in Washington that their governments knew how to handle a president who in his first term often made foreign policy by tweet. But the shock that drove European leaders to an emergency meeting in Paris this week suggests they underestimated just how destructive Trump’s second term would be.

  • Trump has reversed US policy on the war in Ukraine, taking the side of the invader rather than the invaded party. He’s parroting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s talking points and is trying to push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from power.
  • His Vice President JD Vance traveled to Munich, where he castigated European leaders as “tyrants” suppressing conservative thought and pressured Germany to dismantle the political “firewall” that it set up to ensure that fascists could never again win power.
  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth meanwhile told Europeans that they now need to “take ownership of conventional security on the continent” casting immediate doubt on security alliance NATO’s foundational creed of mutual self-defense.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth meanwhile told Europeans that they now need to “take ownership of conventional security on the continent” casting immediate doubt on security alliance NATO’s foundational creed of mutual self-defense.

America’s repudiation of its traditional foreign policy is being driven by both Trump’s particular obsessions and wider geopolitical changes. The United States remains the world’s strongest power — but it no longer has the might that can force others — like China — to live by its rules. Indeed, it now has a president who has no intention of observing any economic, trade, and diplomatic rules at all and is threatening to annex Canada.

Not only that, but the new administration is actively seeking to destabilize friendly democracies and fuel a global movement of rightwing populism. Vance’s speech warned that European governments threatened their own security more than China or Russia because of their policies on free speech and immigration. He also met the leader of the AfD, a far-right party in Germany with neo-Nazi roots and sought to boost far-right parties elsewhere who are challenging governments in France and Britain for example. Trump would rather deal with fellow travelers in a Make Europe Great Again (MEGA) movement than centrist leaders now in office.

So, what can Europe do now that America — the country that rebuilt the continent from the ashes of World War II — seems to be becoming an openly hostile power?

French President Emmanuel Macron, acting on the experience of his dealings with Trump during their first terms, has been warning for years that Europe needed to realize that America had become an unreliable partner. With doubts about the US military commitment to its allies, other members of NATO now have no choice but to hike shriveled military spending.

This will be painful since many of Europe’s governments are already struggling to balance the books and are under extreme pressure to maintain their popular welfare states. And getting all members of the European Union to agree on a more independent path will be treacherous. Some nations in Moscow’s old neighborhood – like Poland and the Baltic states – understand the Russian threat all too well, but some smaller, Western European countries perceive the danger to be more distant. And the EU now includes some leaders who’d love to help Trump do Putin’s work for him in dividing the western alliance — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for instance.

In only 31 days in office, Trump has already changed the world.

What to watch for next week

Barring a big surprise, the big international story will be Ukraine.

We may learn more about the prospects of a peace deal to end the war and how it would be implemented when Macron visits the White House on Monday and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer follows him on Thursday.

The visits will be critical to showing whether there is any scope for US-European cooperation on the war — after the continent was shut out of US talks in Saudi Arabia with Russia this week. Both Britain and France say they’re ready to send troops to Ukraine to monitor any eventual peace — but it’s hard to fathom that such an operation could take place without US air, intelligence, and logistical support. Is Trump prepared to do this and risk angering Moscow, which has already ruled out the idea of foreign troops in Ukraine?

Look out also next week to see if either leader shows up in the Oval Office with an offer to raise their own defense spending — to impress their host.

Macron plans to use his visit to try to insert some steel in Trump’s spine following his latest round of genuflecting to Putin and will appeal to the US President’s highly advanced sense of his own power. “I’m going to say to Trump, ‘Deep down you can’t be weak in the face of Putin, it’s not you, it’s not your trademark’,” Macron said Thursday.

The UK isn’t in the European Union anymore, but it’s been in lockstep with Macron and other leaders from the bloc this week. Starmer is seeking to restore the UK’s former role its traditional role as a bridge between its great friend the United States and Europe.

There’s just one problem. Trump doesn’t cross bridges. He burns them.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

Meta approves plan for bigger executive bonuses following 5% layoffs

2 Mins Read

Executives at Meta stand to get bigger bonuses this year. 

The company said in a corporate filing Thursday that it had approved “an increase in the target bonus percentage” for its annual bonus plan for executives. Meta’s named executive officers could earn a bonus of 200% of their base salary under the new plan, up from the 75% they earned previously, according to the filing. 

The updated bonus plan doesn’t apply to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, the filing noted.

A committee for Meta’s board of directors approved the change on Feb.13 after determining that the “target total cash compensation” for its executives “was at or below the 15th percentile of the target total cash compensation of executives holding similar positions” at peer companies. 

“Following this increase, the target total cash compensation for the named executive officers (other than the CEO) falls at approximately the 50th percentile of the Peer Group Target Cash Compensation,” the filing said.

The disclosure of the new executive bonus plan comes a week after Meta began laying off 5% of its overall workforce. The company had previously said this would impact its lowest performers.

Meta also slashed its annual distribution of stock options by about 10% for thousands of employees, according to a report published Thursday by the Financial Times. The report noted that the stock option reduction may differ based on where the workers live and their position at the company.

Meta shares are up more than 47% over the past year and closed Thursday at $694.84, underscoring investor enthusiasm over the social media company’s growing sales in the digital advertising market and the potential for its artificial intelligence investments to eventually generate big returns.

The company said in January that its fourth-quarter revenue grew 21% year over year to $48.39 billion.

Meta did not reply to a request for comment.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Gold and Silver Are Crushing the S&P 500! Here’s What You Need To Know Now!

5 Mins Read

There’s been a lot of wild speculation surrounding gold’s bullish run. When you consider a gold investment, you’re likely to think of the more common factors that come into play: inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank demand. 

But there’s more to the mix now, especially in light of the Trump administration’s latest initiatives and policies. These new developments are spurring speculations that are likely to change the context surrounding how investors view gold. Here are a few key things to think about:

  • Around 12.5 million ounces of gold have been imported into the US since last November.
  • President Trump announced a possible audit of Fort Knox gold reserves which hasn’t been done since the early 1970s (is it all still there?).
  • The US government’s gold valuations remain at an outdated $42.22 an ounce.

The big rumor (keyword: rumor) is that gold is due for a revaluation. Will Trump use the revaluation to boost the value of the Treasury’s holdings, possibly paying down the national debt? Will his administration attempt a partial return to the gold standard? Will the gold be used to counter China’s reported attempt at launching a gold-backed currency to challenge the US dollar? 

Whatever the case may be, a full revaluation is likely to drive bullish sentiment in gold, sending prices higher. If the government sells gold to weaken the dollar, you can expect some short-term price dips before a rebound. And if, by any chance, the Fort Knox audit reveals a shortfall, then that’s bad news for the economy and markets but good news for gold, which will likely send prices skyrocketing.

To get some near-term context, let’s see how gold has been performing over the last year relative to silver, commodities in general, and the S&P 500.  

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF GOLD, SILVER, COMMODITIES MARKETS, AND THE S&P 500. Gold and silver outperformed both the broader stock and commodities markets over the past year. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It turns out that both gold and silver have been outperforming the broader equities and commodities markets.

Let’s take a long-term view of gold. Below is a weekly chart. 

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. There are no signs of topping yet, though its ascent has grown increasingly steep. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If volume precedes price, then accumulation, as shown by the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) on the chart, has stayed well ahead of it for a little over three years. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may be registering as “overbought” but the reliability of this indicator in the current environment is anyone’s guess.

Trump’s policy blitz is transforming the political and economic landscape, and it brings certain shocks that can make technical and fundamental analysis more fluid. For now, there are no clear signs of topping, which makes it difficult for anyone interested in finding an entry point. So, let’s zoom in on a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. There are still no signs of a top except for the declining buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There are still no clear signs of near-term weakness, aside from a slight drop in buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If gold pulls back, the $2,900 high will likely serve as the first support level. Additional support zones, marked by the magenta lines, align with key swing highs and lows based on the Zig Zag lines.

The final three levels define a broad trading range and coincide with the Volume by Price indicator, highlighting areas of concentrated trading activity where support is most likely to hold. If prices retreat, these levels will be crucial to watch for a potential rebound. So, right now, it’s a matter of waiting for a pullback.

Silver is another asset that has outperformed commodities and the broader market. Might the grey metal present a tradable opportunity? Below is a daily chart to consider.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. The grey metal has room to run but watch your entry point. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The RSI indicates that silver has more upside to go before reaching an overbought level. Note the relative performance window that I plotted in a manner that replicates the well-known gold/silver ratio (lower panel) . 

Historically, this ratio has averaged around 65:1 since the 1970s, meaning it typically takes 65 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold. Note that every time the ratio reaches the 90-line silver tends to rally. 

Silver is currently rallying, but is another entry point on the horizon? Possibly, but patience is key. This relative performance setup highlights the value of the gold/silver ratio in identifying potential silver entry points, whether for short-term trades or long-term positions.

At the Close

Monitor “spot” $GOLD and $SILVER by adding them to your ChartLists. However, you may be interested in entering trades using their ETF equivalents in GLD and SLV. The prices will differ from their spot price, but the chart patterns that define your entry will be highly correlated, given a few slight adjustments.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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In World news

‘We are in danger’: Migrants deported from US were locked in hotel and held at remote camp in Panama, lawyers say

5 Mins Read

For days, they say they were locked inside a hotel in Panama, surrounded by tight security with limited contact with the outside world.

Nearly 300 migrants from Asia, all deported by the US, were held there by Panamanian authorities who agreed to take them in and eventually repatriate them. It’s part of the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign, which it has pressured Latin American nations to help with.

But the conditions they have faced are distressing and may have violated their rights, the lawyers said.

Trapped in a hotel

The migrants started arriving in Panama City last week after being deported from the US. Some didn’t even know they were being flown to another country until they actually landed in Panama, according to attorney Ali Herischi, who said “they were told they’re going to Texas.”

The migrants were then sent to the Decapolis Hotel and forced to stay there for days without stepping foot outside.

Jenny Soto Fernández, a Panamanian lawyer who represents about 24 migrants from India and Iran, said her clients were living in isolation, fear and uncertainty.

She said a lot of them didn’t know their rights and weren’t given orders of removal upon being deported. They also face language barriers and are constantly worried about being repatriated, she added.

One of the migrants is Artemis Ghasemzadeh, an Iranian national who fled her country out of fear of persecution because of her conversion to Christianity.

“Under Islamic law, you cannot convert from Islam to any other religion,” said Herischi, who represents her.

Ghasemzadeh now worries her life will be at risk if she’s returned to Iran.

At the hotel, some migrants tried to voice their concerns by sending distress signals to journalists gathered outside. Standing in front of their windows, they held up pieces of paper with handwritten notes begging for support.

“Please help us,” one sign read. “We are not (safe) in our country.”

Another message was written with lipstick directly on the window. “HELP US,” it read in bold, red letters.

The migrants were not allowed to leave the hotel “for their own protection,” Panama’s Security Minister Frank Ábrego told a local radio program on Wednesday. He said they were held at the hotel, in part, because officials needed to “effectively verify who these people are who are arriving in our country.”

Soto argues that the migrants have the right to seek asylum because they’re fleeing persecution.

Soto said she tried at least four times to meet her clients at the hotel to sign legal documents required by authorities but was blocked by officials and never made it past the lobby.

“They actually were so emotional, screaming and said, ‘I want my lawyer! I want her. I want to talk to her. I don’t want to talk to these people here,’” Soto said.

She said that while they had comfortable beds and a place to stay, they were under “psychological pressure being closed in with security guards, immigration police, (and) officers there.”

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino on Thursday denied that authorities have violated any laws.

“These organizations are respectful of human rights. It’s false and I deny that we are mistreating them,” Mulino insisted.

Security Minister Ábrego said Wednesday that he hadn’t heard of any migrants requesting asylum there.

“But if they think they have the need, as any human being would, to request asylum, we have to pay attention to it and approve or disapprove it,” he added.

Bused to a migrant camp

The Panamanian government said that from Tuesday to Wednesday, about 97 migrants were taken out of the hotel and bused to a remote holding camp on the outskirts of the Darién Jungle. It happened after a New York Times report exposed the desperation of those stranded in the hotel in Panama City.

He said they described the site as tough and dirty, with limited access to medication and the internet.

One family has a sick child who could be heard crying in the background during a call between Herischi and Panamanian officials.

Sabalza said the family she represents was also taken to the camp.

She said Panamanian authorities had not yet provided them with guidelines on how the attorneys would be able to visit their clients at the camp or if they would need special permits to enter.

“It is urgent for us to have clarity about the mental and physical health status of our (clients),” she said.

When the migrants arrived at the gate on Wednesday morning, Herischi said the situation was so unorganized that the guards didn’t even have a list of the migrants’ names to identify them upon arrival. The guards later confiscated all the migrants’ cell phones.

He added that he plans to file legal action against Panama and the US in the Inter-American Court of Human Rights and US federal court.

More than 100 migrants have asked not to be repatriated, Panamanian officials have said.

The IOM is expected to work with them and try to find a third country that will accept them, Security Minister Ábrego said.

Meanwhile, President Mulino said another group of migrants would be sent to the camp because “that’s where they can be more at ease.”

He added that 175 migrants who are still in the hotel have voluntarily agreed to return to their countries of origin. At least 13 have already been sent back.

Herischi said Panamanian authorities assured him they would not send Ghasemzadeh and other migrants back to Iran if they expressed fear of reprisals. Instead, officials said they would speak with the embassies of other countries to see if they can accept them.

Herischi concluded, “The only ‘luck’ that they got is that Panama has no relationship with Iran, so there is no Iranian embassy there.”

“That’s a good thing.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

Amazon surpasses Walmart in revenue for the first time

2 Mins Read

Amazon has dethroned Walmart in quarterly revenue for the first time ever.

Amazon said earlier this month that it brought in $187.8 billion in revenue during the fourth quarter. That beat Walmart’s sales for the period, which came in at $180.5 billion, the company reported on Thursday.

Since 2012, Walmart has held the distinction of being the top revenue generator each quarter, a title it gained after overtaking oil giant Exxon Mobil.

Walmart still leads the way in annual sales, though Amazon is gaining ground. Walmart is projected to reel in $708.7 billion in the fiscal year ahead while Amazon’s full-year revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $700.8 billion, according to FactSet.

Amazon’s core retail unit remains its biggest revenue generator, but its top line is also being fueled by its massive cloud computing, advertising and seller services businesses. Third-party seller services, which includes commissions and fees collected by Amazon on fulfillment and shipping, advertising and customer support, accounted for 24.5% of the company’s total sales last year. Amazon Web Services was responsible for nearly 17%.

Walmart has looked to its chief rival for ways to sustain sales growth. The company operates a third-party marketplace and offers sellers fulfillment services, although both businesses are a fraction of the size of Amazon’s. Walmart has also launched an advertising business and a loyalty program for shoppers, called Walmart+, that competes with Amazon Prime.

— CNBC’s Robert Hum contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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In Stocks

From Crash to Comeback: Is SMCI Stock the Hottest AI Asset Right Now?

4 Mins Read

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock surged over 50% after reporting earnings last week. The top and bottom line results weren’t stellar. The guidance, however, was enough to fuel a buying frenzy, driving the stock’s rally to a 110% gain this month. But is it sustainable?  Once SMCI pulls back, does it have the technical strength and fundamental conditions to make it a favorable trade?

SMCI set its revenue guidance to $40 billion by 2026, an ambitious target. Many analysts are skeptical, with several maintaining their “underweight” rating. Investors, on the other hand, are jumping in regardless, betting on increased AI infrastructure spending, particularly among giants like Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).

With bulls and bears divided, what do the technicals say? What entry points and targets might the price action give us, if any? 

Let’s get started. Below is a weekly chart detailing SMCI’s two-year price action.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK.  The stock saw an impressive rise followed by an equally strong fall. Can it sustain its recovery? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

From May 2023 to March 2024, SMCI saw a jaw-dropping rally of 1,167% from around $10 a share to $120. But then, it all came to a screeching halt as financial and regulatory concerns — specifically allegations of accounting and transaction irregularities — sent the stock into a prolonged tailspin. Over nearly a year of selling pressure, SMCI plummeted, finally hitting rock bottom at $23 in November.

Since then, SMCI has been attempting to recover, twice testing and finally breaking above resistance at the $50 range (see the highlighted yellow range). Interestingly, despite its year-long plunge, it still outperformed its broader industry, represented by the Dow Jones US Computer Hardware Index ($DJUSCR), by $297%.

So, what does the situation look like up close, and might there be an entry point? Let’s now shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. The trend is shifting, so it’s important to watch the key levels and momentum shift via the full stochastic oscillator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

First, note how the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score jumped well above the bullish 70-line. The shift from extreme technical weakness to technical strength potentially foreshadows a bullish shift in the trend. But it depends on how price responds to a few key levels.

The price looks a bit overextended. While runaway gaps tend not to get filled immediately within a week after the move, there’s still the likelihood that a pullback may occur in the next few sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is well above 80, signaling a potentially overbought condition, although both lines (%K and %D) have been known to occasionally hover in either extreme (above 80 and below 20) for a prolonged period. 

About the stochastic oscillator, note how it signaled the (overbought) limit of each major swing high during the downtrend. If SMCI’s trend shifts upward, you will use the oscillator to anticipate potential swing lows throughout the uptrend. 

Concerning the trend, look at the ZigZag line highlighting the stock’s major swing points. For the bullish reversal to evolve into a full-fledged uptrend, it should remain above the most recent swing low point (see blue dotted line) near $25.  Before that, however, SMCI may rebound at the recently breached resistance level (yellow line). If it drops below this level, the next potential support is around $37.50 (blue line), which has acted as both support and resistance from last September to this February.

At the Close

If you’re considering a position in SMCI, here are your next steps:

  1. Add SMCI to your ChartLists.
  2. Monitor price action if SMCI pulls back, paying close attention to how it reacts to the key levels mentioned above.

A bounce off support could indicate a favorable entry point. However, if the price falls below $25, the bullish outlook becomes uncertain. A drop below $17.50 would invalidate the bullish thesis entirely.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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In World news

As Trump loses patience with Ukraine, Russia’s biggest backer sees a ‘window for peace’

5 Mins Read

A “window for peace is opening” in Ukraine, China’s top diplomat told a meeting of G20 foreign ministers on Thursday, as the Trump administration ramps up its push to end the war in close coordination with Russia.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the margins of the gathering in South Africa, the first high-level talks between the two close partners since US President Donald Trump upended America’s stance on the conflict this month with a sweeping pivot toward Moscow.

That’s seen top Trump officials hold bilateral talks with Moscow over Kyiv’s head and launch a barrage of criticism against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with a senior American official warning on Thursday that the US is losing patience with Kyiv.

The G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, which was not attended by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, came as the breakneck diplomacy has left Europe and China on the sidelines and raised questions about a shifting balance of power in a fraught geopolitical landscape.

China “supports all efforts dedicated to peace, including the recent consensus reached between the US and Russia,” Wang told counterparts at the gathering in Johannesburg.

A “window for peace is opening” on the war, he added.

The war and US relations were among subjects discussed between the top Chinese diplomat and Lavrov on the meeting sidelines, a Russian readout said. The two sides – which have tightened their relations during the war – also praised their growing cooperation.

On Ukraine, both countries appeared to agree that it was necessary to address the conflict’s “root causes” – an apparent veiled reference to NATO – with Russia’s readout attributing this sentiment to Wang and China’s attributing this to Lavrov.

Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago in an uninterrupted onslaught that has killed tens of thousands and displaced about 10 million people. The invasion has also laid waste to Ukrainian cities and drawn allegations of war crimes by Moscow’s forces, which are entrenched in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine.

Even though Russia invaded its neighbor, Beijing and Moscow have blamed NATO expansion as the cause of the conflict – part of their broader shared opposition to the US system of alliances they see as positioned against their interests.

Lavrov earlier this week praised Trump for being what he described as “the first Western leader” to acknowledge publicly that the “cause of the Ukrainian conflict was the efforts … to expand NATO.”

Russia has long claimed that expansion of the US-led defense alliance put its security under threat, necessitating its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. That claim has been dismissed by Western leaders as a bogus justification for launching its war.

The sharp shift in US positioning on the conflict was underscored Thursday as Trump’s national security adviser Michael Waltz described the US president’s “frustration” with Zelensky following a meeting between the Ukrainian leader and the US’ Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellog in Kyiv.

“President Trump is obviously very frustrated right now with President Zelensky — the fact that — that he hasn’t come to the table, that he hasn’t been willing to take this opportunity that we have offered,” Waltz told a news briefing in Washington, referencing an economic deal that the Trump administration has so far been unsuccessful in convincing Kyiv to accept.

“I think he eventually will get to that point, and I hope so very quickly,” Waltz said, echoing comments he made before the Kellogg-Zelensky meeting, urging the Ukrainian leader to “sign the deal.”

Trump-Zelensky rift

Waltz’s comments came amid what has been a deepening rift between Trump and Zelensky that has cast more uncertainty over how Ukraine’s interests would be represented in future talks on ending the war.

Trump ramped up his long-standing criticism of Ukraine’s leader in recent days, parroting Kremlin rhetoric that wrongly accuses Kyiv of starting the war with Russia and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy to lead since he suspended an election due to the invasion.

After Zelensky hit back, accusing the US president of being in a “disinformation space,” Trump escalated the fight on Wednesday, calling Zelensky “a Dictator without elections” in a scathing post on his platform Truth Social.

Following talks Thursday with envoy Kellogg, Zelensky appeared keen to stress Ukraine’s interest in maintaining strong US relations.

“General Kellogg’s meeting is one that restores hope, and we need strong agreements with America, agreements that will really work,” Zelensky said in his nightly address to the Ukrainian people.

“Economy and security must always go hand in hand, and the details of the agreements matter: the better the details, the better the result.”

Kellogg and Zelensky’s team had discussed Ukraine’s prisoners of war, and “the need for a reliable and clear system of security guarantees so that the war does not return,” the Ukrainian president added.

The meeting followed a sit down earlier this month between Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich.

In his comments Thursday, national security adviser Waltz defended Washington’s “shuttle diplomacy” approach to speak with Russian and Ukrainian counterparts separately.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

Walmart is getting a bump from a surprising cohort: Wealthier shoppers

8 Mins Read

Walmart is known for its low prices and no frills approach.

So it may come as a surprise that wealthier shoppers are helping to fuel the retailer’s growth.

For more than two years, the discounter has noticed more customers with six-figure incomes shopping on its website and in its stores. Households earning more than $100,000 made up 75% of the company’s market share gains in the fiscal third quarter, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on the company’s earnings call in November.

Those newer and more frequent customers have helped support the company’s aspirations to sell more higher-margin items, such as clothing and home goods. They are driving Walmart’s e-commerce sales, which have grown by double digits for 10 consecutive quarters. And they can boost the retailer’s newer revenue streams, such as subscription-based membership program Walmart+ and its advertising business Walmart Connect.

As Walmart reports its latest earnings on Thursday, Wall Street will be watching whether those upper-income customers are sticking around, after market share gains helped the retailer’s shares soar about 83% in the last year. Yet some investors have questioned whether Walmart’s traction with affluent shoppers has staying power, especially if the sticker shock of inflation cools.

In an interview with CNBC, Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner acknowledged that the retailer has gained and then lost upper-income customers before, such as in 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession. Affluent shoppers stretched their dollars at the big-box retailer, but then ultimately returned to competitors.

This time, Furner said the gains will last because Walmart can save shoppers both time and money with e-commerce options.

“It’s different because we deliver to you at the curb [of the store],” he said in the late January interview. “We deliver to your house. We deliver your refrigerator. That whole Supercenter, which is an amazing retail format, is available in an hour or two for a large part of the country and growing really quickly.

Walmart’s expanding digital services have helped convince higher-income shoppers to give it a shot, said Brad Thomas, a retail analyst and managing director at KeyBanc Capital Markets. Some of those newer or more frequent customers have joined Walmart+, a subscription-based membership program that includes perks like free home deliveries. Walmart+, which launched about five years ago, is Walmart’s answer to Amazon Prime.

Walmart has not disclosed the program’s membership count, but it has reported double-digit membership income growth in each of the past four quarters..

Thomas said e-commerce options wipe out a potential hurdle for affluent shoppers: a potential stigma about shopping at the big-box stores themselves.

“There’s a customer in America that doesn’t think of itself as a Walmart shopper,” he said. “They think of themselves as a Target shopper or a Publix or a Whole Foods shopper and through the app and through the delivery capabilities, they can remain a non-Walmart core shopper, but get all the benefits of getting the branded items at Walmart prices.”

As inflation forced shoppers of all incomes to hunt for deals, some wealthier consumers realized they can get the same national brands like Tide detergent or Bounty paper towels from Walmart cheaper and often faster than at Amazon because of Walmart’s nearby stores, he said.

Walmart’s website and app have increased their selection, too, as the company has bulked up its third-party marketplace. Starting this summer, the company began offering premium beauty brands through its website, including hairdryers from T3 and perfumes from Victoria’s Secret.

Shoppers can now find handbags from Chanel and Louis Vuitton, too. Last month, Walmart announced a deal with resale platform Rebag, which sells the items through Walmart’s marketplace.

Yet as Walmart tries to keep those customers, it wants to encourage them to shop in person, as well. Walmart has stepped up investments in its stores to freshen its look and counter negative perceptions that higher-income shoppers might have.

Walmart has sped up the pace of remodels for its more than 4,600 stores across the U.S., with plans to revamp about 650 locations per year, an acceleration from a prior cadence of 450 to 500 per year, said Hunter Hart, senior vice president of Walmart Realty.

Remodeled stores have brighter lighting, wider aisles and mannequins, said Alvis Washington, Walmart’s vice president of retail brand experience. The stores also feature Walmart’s newer and more fashion-forward brands like Scoop and Free Assembly, and national brands that shoppers would recognize, such as Reebok.

The discounter launched a new grocery brand, BetterGoods, last year with colorful packaging and creative flavors that looks similar to merchandise that shoppers might find at Trader Joe’s or Target.

The Walmart U.S. CEO Furner said some of those changes have drawn upper-income customers to the company’s stores and app.

He said Walmart’s market share gains with affluent shoppers have come from online and in-store shopping, but added curbside pickup orders showed early signs of popularity with those customers. Even before the pandemic, Walmart saw that people who shopped with curbside pickup bought more higher-priced items, such as prime beef and seafood, Furner added.

He said that still rings true: Walmart sees more premium items in the shopping baskets of customers who buy online, get home deliveries or use curbside pickup.

Washington said Walmart treaded carefully with its store redesign, realizing it could risk its reputation for low prices and resonance with core customers, who typically have lower incomes. It promoted newer brands, but mixed in familiar staples, such as folded piles of inexpensive bath towels and denim.

“Having a great, elevated experience and great value aren’t mutually exclusive,” Walmart’s Washington said, recounting the company’s approach. “So when we looked at this, it’s like, how do we do both and make sure we can gain new customers and maintain the customers that we have?

When comparing remodeled stores to the rest of the fleet, Washington said higher comparable store sales reflect that customers like the different look. Walmart declined to provide specific numbers, saying it won’t release sales numbers until it reports fourth-quarter earnings.

Walmart’s customer mix for its U.S. e-commerce business hasn’t changed, even as it attracts higher-income shoppers, according to an analysis by market research firm Euromonitor. About 34% of Walmart’s online customers in the U.S. last year had incomes of $100,000 and above, which is roughly flat compared to two years prior.

Michelle Evans, global lead for retail and digital shopper insights at Euromonitor, said that indicates that Walmart is also gaining market share from lower- and middle-income customers.

Walmart still has a smaller share of higher-income shoppers than some key rivals: 49% and 48% of online U.S. shoppers at Target and Amazon, respectively, have incomes above $100,000.

Amazon remains a formidable competitor, especially when it comes to wealthier shoppers and general merchandise categories, Evans said. But Walmart’s biggest edge is its grocery department.

One of Walmart’s newer, higher-income shoppers is Francesca Frink. The 30-year-old lives in the Chicago suburb of Park Ridge, Ill. with her husband, Sam, 1-year-old son and their English setter. The Frink family’s combined annual household income is over $200,000.

Last fall, Francesca Frink signed up for Walmart+ after her mother-in-law ordered a stroller from Walmart’s website and got it dropped at her door three hours later.

Initially, she said she hesitated to order fresh foods from Walmart. She bought packaged items like pasta and flour. Yet over time, the couple began ordering a larger portion of groceries, dog treats and even clothes for their son from Walmart.

The Frinks have stopped going to their old grocery store, Kroger-owned supermarket Mariano’s. They estimate that their weekly grocery bill is about 20% cheaper.

Previously, the couple said they avoided Walmart because their nearest store is outdated. Yet Sam Frink said the game has changed with curbside pickup and home deliveries.

“You don’t have to go in,” he said. “That’s the biggest thing.”

Francesca Frink said home deliveries from Walmart, included in their Walmart+ membership, save the couple time while they juggle two careers, a toddler and a dog. Plus, she said she found that Walmart had the grocery items she wanted and even those she didn’t expect, including organic blueberries, natural peanut butter and specialty mushroom ravioli.

Still, Francesca Frink said she still faces some apprehension from friends and family about buying groceries from Walmart.

But she said they’ve been surprised when they’ve tried and liked food items from Walmart.

In her day job, Euromonitor’s Evans tracked Walmart’s digital gains with higher-income shoppers. Yet she also saw it firsthand in her household.

Her husband signed the family up for Walmart+. During the holiday season, he told her all of his Christmas purchases would be coming from the discounter.

“He made a comment that all the gifts were coming from Walmart, and obviously that comes with a certain impression,” she said.

So she was surprised when she opened his gift and discovered it was a Michael Kors tote.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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In Stocks

The Best Five Sectors, #7

5 Mins Read

Shifting Sands in the Top Five

At the end of last week, there were some interesting shifts in sector positioning, though the composition of the top five remained unchanged. Let’s dive into the details and see what the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) tell us about the current market dynamics.

At the close of trading on Valentine’s Day (February 14th), we saw a bit of a love-hate relationship playing out among the sectors. Here’s how they stacked up:

  1. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  2. (1) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  3. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
  4. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
  5. (4) Industrials – (XLI)*
  6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
  7. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  8. (9) Real Estate – (XLRE)*
  9. (10) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (8) Health Care – (XLV)*
  11. (11) Materials – (XLB)

Communication Services took the top spot from Consumer Discretionary, pushing that sector down to #2 and Financials down to #3. Technology and Industrials swapped places four and five.

We also saw some reshuffling in the bottom half of the ranking. Utilities (XLU) held steady, while Consumer Staples (XLP) maintained its #7 spot. Real Estate (XLRE) and Energy (XLE) each climbed a rung, landing at #8 and #9, respectively. Health Care (XLV) tumbled from #8 to #10, and Materials (XLB) remained firmly planted in the basement at #11.

Weekly RRG: A Familiar Picture

The weekly RRG paints a similar picture to last week, with a few notable developments:

Consumer Discretionary still has the highest reading but is heading south inside the leading quadrant. Communication Services is losing some momentum but maintaining its relative strength. Despite being in the weakening quadrant, Financials has hooked back up—a positive sign. Technology is almost stationary, teetering on the edge of improving and leading.

Perhaps the most intriguing action is happening in the lagging quadrant, where most tails hook up slightly. While not all have achieved a positive heading yet, it’s a sign of potential improvement on the horizon.

Health Care is the lone wolf in the improving quadrant, a positive development. However, its low reading on the JdK RS-Ratio scale suggests it still has some work.

Daily RRG: Tech’s Time to Shine?

Switching gears to the daily RRG, we get a clearer picture of why some sectors are jockeying for position:

Technology flexes muscles with a strong, long tail in the improving quadrant.

Consumer Discretionary is heading in the opposite direction, moving into lagging territory.

Communication Services is holding onto its relative strength despite losing some momentum.

Financials, Health Care, and Materials are all in the lagging quadrant with negative headings.

Utilities are showing apparent strength, moving into the leading quadrant with gusto.

Spotlight on the Top Five

Let’s get into the trenches and examine each of our top performers:

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC is fulfilling expectations by emerging from its flag consolidation pattern and moving towards new all-time highs. It is also enhancing its standing on price and relative charts, which are bullish indicators of the sector’s ongoing supremacy.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

XLY is indicating some concerning trends. It has established a possible double top, which will be validated if the price falls below $218, the low from five weeks ago. The relative strength line mirrors this formation, and the RRG lines are declining. Considering its earlier strength, a notable decline may take a while to materialize, but it is certainly one to monitor closely.

Financials (XLF)

Financials are holding their ground admirably. Last week saw a break above the previous high on a closing basis — something that didn’t happen in the two weeks prior. The raw RS line also pushes against (and possibly above) its previous high. If this improvement continues, expect Financials to maintain its top-five status.

Technology (XLK)

Tech is making a comeback, overtaking Industrials for the #4 spot. Price-wise, we’re still grappling with overhead resistance around $242, but we closed at the week’s high — a positive sign. The relative strength is moving higher off the lower boundary, and RRG lines continue to climb (with a slight dip in momentum). I’m keeping a close eye on that $242 level — a break above could signal the start of a new leg up for the sector.

Industrials (XLI)

Industrials are living up to our expectations as the weakest link in the top five. It’s dropped from #4 to #5, thanks to continued weakness in relative strength. The RRG lines point lower, suggesting it’s only a matter of time before XLI drops out of the top five. Price-wise, we’re still within the rising channel, but a lower high has formed — not a great sign. Support comes in around $134 (rising support line) and $132-130 (late December low). A break below these levels could trigger a more significant decline.

Portfolio Performance Update

Despite the changing conditions, our RRG portfolio remains robust. Since its inception, it has achieved a 4.88% gain, while the SPY benchmark has only increased by 4.29%, resulting in an outperformance of 59 basis points.

#StayAlert and enjoy your long weekend. –Julius

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