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The Trump administration revoked the terrorist designation for Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the militant group who overthrew President Bashar al’Assad and assumed control of the Syrian government. 

The group was formed as Syria’s al-Qaeda branch. In an astounding turnaround, the group’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa went from a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head to the de facto leader of Syria who scored a meeting with President Donald Trump in June. 

Al-Sharaa had been campaigning hard for a relationship with Washington and sanctions relief: He offered to build a Trump Tower in Damascus, ease hostilities with Israel, and give U.S. access to Syria’s oil and gas. He worked to soften the image of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and promised an inclusive governing structure. 

‘In consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of the Treasury, I hereby revoke the designation of al-Nusrah Front, also known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (and other aliases) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization,’ Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote in a memo made public Monday. 

The move comes a week after Trump signed an executive order ending sanctions imposed on Syria. Trump said he’d lift the sanctions on Syria to give the nation, ravaged by decades of civil war, a chance at economic development. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that lifting sanctions would help Syria ‘reestablish ties to global commerce and build international confidence,’ while continuing to prevent ‘Assad, his cronies, terrorists, and other illicit actors from attempting to destabilize Syria and the region.’ 

HTS, a Sunni Islamist group, emerged out of Jabhat al-Nusra, Syria’s former al-Qaeda affiliate. The State Department under Trump in 2018 added HTS to the existing al-Nusra foreign terrorist designation.

Some sanctions still will need to be lifted by Congress. In a bipartisan pairing from opposite sides of the political spectrum, Reps. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., and Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., recently introduced legislation to lift sanctions on Syria. 

U.S. sanctions have included financial penalties on any foreign individual or company that provided material support to the Syrian government and prohibited anyone in the U.S. from dealing in any Syrian entity, including oil and gas. Syrian banks also were effectively cut off from global financial systems. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

With the passage of Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), the US has chosen to pile more debt onto an already overloaded balance sheet. 

The federal debt now stands at $37 trillion. Interest payments will soon exceed $1 trillion per year. That’s more than the entire US defense budget

Yet bond markets remain strangely calm. Yields are rising, but not panicking. Perhaps investors haven’t fully grasped what’s coming.

This is no longer about theoretical debt ceilings or abstract fiscal debates. The numbers are visible, the risks are multiplying, and the market reaction is lagging behind reality.

How big is the damage?

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the new bill will add at least $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Other estimates go further. 

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) puts the number closer to $4 trillion, with a longer-term range of $15 to $31 trillion if the tax cuts in the bill are made permanent.

This comes on top of an existing debt load that already equals 124% of GDP, up from 104% in 2017. 

Source: TradingEconomics

The US hasn’t seen debt levels like this since World War II. But back then, the country had high post-war growth, a rising labor force, and fewer structural liabilities.

Today, the picture is different. The US population is aging. Entitlement spending is rising. The cost of servicing debt is getting more expensive, not less.

Why aren’t bond markets screaming?

Investors are beginning to respond, but only slowly. In the second quarter of 2025, long-term bond funds saw $11 billion in outflows, the fastest pace since the COVID shock in 2020.

Source: FT

Meanwhile, $39 billion flowed into short-duration bonds, a clear shift toward safety.

But the broader bond market hasn’t fully priced in the risks. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen, but only moderately. 

The assumption is that the Fed will intervene if things get worse. But that assumption is now questionable.

Unlike in the past, the Fed no longer has the same room to maneuver. In the 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing suppressed yields. 

During World War II, yield curve control helped finance spending without sparking inflation. Neither strategy is easy to repeat today.

Inflation is still above target. Interest rates are already at 4% to 5%. Reintroducing yield suppression now could trigger another inflation cycle. The Fed is caught between rising debt costs and the need to maintain price stability.

The risk is no longer just fiscal. It’s political

What makes this moment different is the lack of political willingness to reverse course. In theory, fiscal consolidation is possible. In practice, there is no appetite for it.

Source: Carbon Finance

The OBBBA’s central feature is a sweeping tax cut. Most of the benefits go to the wealthiest Americans. 

Even with cuts to Medicaid, energy programs, and food assistance, the revenue loss is not offset. The bill assumes future spending cuts will kick in, but history suggests otherwise. Temporary tax cuts often become permanent. Future austerity is always pushed off.

The administration defends the bill by arguing it will spur growth and reduce deficits. But the evidence is weak. 

Trump’s 2017 tax cuts slightly boosted investment, but only offset about 2% of the revenue loss, according to research by Chodorow-Reich and Zidar (2024). There is no reason to expect better results this time.

Behind the scenes, some economists suspect the bill’s true goal is political: to deliver short-term gains before the 2026 midterms, win back high-income donors, and distract voters with culture war messaging. 

Long-term solvency is not part of the strategy.

What does this mean for investors?

The US has entered a structural debt phase. That means borrowing is no longer tied to one-off events like wars or recessions. It’s embedded in the system. 

If interest costs continue to rise and GDP growth slows, the government will need to borrow just to pay interest.

This is the beginning of a debt spiral. And it matters for everyone holding US assets. Not just bonds, but stocks and US dollars too.

Foreign demand for Treasuries is softening. The Fed is slowing its balance sheet runoff, but it remains hesitant to re-expand. 

If market confidence in the US fiscal position slips, whether due to inflation expectations, default risk, or sheer exhaustion, bond yields could spike rapidly.

Higher yields mean lower stock valuations, tighter lending, and falling investment. The scenario resembles the early 1980s but without Paul Volcker’s credibility or the same margin for error.

And right now, the market heavily hinges on the idea that interest rates are about to come down soon. That’s far from guaranteed. 

No one knows when the tipping point comes. But the logic is clear. If debt grows faster than GDP, and interest costs grow faster than revenues, markets will eventually respond.

Markets are still calm. But history shows that confidence unravels slowly, then suddenly. For now, the world is still buying Treasuries. 

But eventually, someone asks whether the US can pay the bill. When that question gets asked loudly enough, the answer won’t come from press briefings. It will come from yields.

The post The US debt spiral is underway. Markets just haven’t priced it in yet appeared first on Invezz

Iran is preparing its next step in what one security expert warns remains its chief objective: developing a nuclear weapon.

‘Repair, reconstitute and rebuild is going to be the modus operandi of the Islamic Republic of Iran,’ Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program told Fox News Digital. ‘It just depends on how are they going to be doing it? While flirting with the international community? Are they going to go dark totally altogether?

‘All of this remains to be seen,’ he added.

Spokesman for the regime, Fatemeh Mohajerani, confirmed this week that the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites had been ‘seriously damaged’ following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program last month. 

Questions remain over the extent of damage that was incurred, as well as skepticism over whether Iran was able to move any enriched uranium or centrifuges away from the heavily guarded sites prior to the strikes. 

Though the Trump administration said on Wednesday that it had ‘obliterated’ the three facilities it struck, and has fervently rejected reports suggesting that Iranian officials may have been able to transfer some elements of the regime’s coveted nuclear program, Israeli officials confirmed this week that they are continuing to monitor the situation closely.

Experts in the U.S. and Israel have said they believe Iran is still assessing the extent of the damage from the ‘bunker busting’ bombs, and that the regime will look to recover and repair what it can — meaning it may be looking to buy time.

‘No doubt, the regime will still have a diplomatic strategy designed to rope-a-dope anybody, and to find as much time as possible for this government to do that,’ Ben Taleblu said.

The Iranian regime this week suggested it remained open to negotiations with the U.S. after President Donald Trump signaled that the talks could begin as soon as next week, though multiple Iranian officials said that that timeframe was overly ambitious. 

‘I don’t think negotiations will restart as quickly as that,’ Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a CBS News interview. ‘The doors of diplomacy will never slam shut.’ 

But the regime also took steps to further hinder the UN nuclear watchdog — which is tasked with tracking all nation’s nuclear programs — and suspended all interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Wednesday. 

That same day, the State Department condemned the move, and spokesperson Tammy Bruce said it was ‘unacceptable that Iran chose to suspend cooperation with the IAEA at a time when it has a window of opportunity to reverse course and choose a path of peace and prosperity.’

Iran has limited IAEA access in the past and Ben Taleblu argued Tehran will likely look to do this again as it attempts to hold on to any bargaining chip it can.

‘The Islamic Republic of Iran’s next step, and likely most dangerous capability right now, is its diplomatic capability,’ the Iranian security expert argued. ‘This is the capability of the regime to either enter negotiations with a weak hand and leave with a strong hand, or try to prevent a military victory of its adversaries from becoming a political victory. 

‘If negotiations do take place between the U.S. and the Iranians, be they direct or indirect, the Iranians are going to be dangling IAEA access. This is already their most important weapon,’ he added. 

Ben Taleblu explained that using the IAEA as a bargaining chip not only enables Iran to play for time as it looks to re-establish its nuclear program, but to sow division in the U.S. by creating uncertainty. 

‘By diminishing the monitoring and by circumscribing and even cutting IAEA access to these facilities, the regime is trying to make America have to rely on intelligence alone,’ he said. ‘And as you see from the very politicized debates over the battle damage assessment, relying on intelligence alone without sources on the ground inspecting the sites, inspecting the facilities, documenting the fissile material, can lead to drastically different conclusions being taken by similar but not the same intelligence organizations or representatives.’

Ultimately, Iran is not going to give up on its nuclear ambitions, Ben Taleblu warned, noting that Tehran’s security apparatus completely changed during its war with Iraq in the 1980s. 

‘Everything that we face from the regime that is a security threat was started then — the ballistic missile program, the drone program, the maritime aggression, the transnational terrorist apparatus and the nuclear program all have their origins in the 1980s,’ he said.  ‘By resurrecting this nuclear program, the Islamic Republic was not engaging in a science fair experiment. 

‘The Islamic Republic was seeking an ultimate deterrent,’ Ben Taleblu continued. ‘It was seeking an ultimate deterrence because it had a vision for what the region and the world should look like, and it was willing to put foreign policy muscle and the resources of its state behind that vision.’

The expert on the Iranian regime warned that Iran’s 40-year ‘obsession’ with developing its nuclear program to achieve its geopolitical aims is not going to change because of U.S. military intervention. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Dow Jones Index continued its strong bull run last week as it neared its all-time high. It has jumped in the last six consecutive days, and is trading at $44,828, a few points below its all-time high of $45,045. It is up by over 22% from its lowest point in April. 

This article looks at some of the top catalysts for the Dow Jones Index this week. These factors will also impact other top American indices, such as the blue-chip S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Dow Jones Index chart

Trade war deadline

The first major catalyst for the Dow Jones Index is the upcoming trade war deadline by Donald Trump. This deadline, which ends on Monday, will likely bring back trade tensions that faded a few months ago.

Trump has reached trade deals with just a few countries, like China, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom. Talks with other major economies like the European Union, Japan, and South Korea have not made any progress in the past few months. 

Most importantly, Trump has warned that tariffs forthe European Union could jump to 50% if there is no deal. 

Therefore, the US stock market will react to how these trade talks evolve. The return of the trade war will likely lead to a deep reversal of the Dow Jones and other indices. Trade deals, as we saw with the one on Vietnam, will be bullish for the index.

Corporate earnings

The other top catalyst for the Dow Jones and other indices is corporate earnings by some notable American companies. These earnings will come a week before the start of the earnings season, which will be watched closely because of the impact of the tade war. 

The most notable companies publishing their earnings this week are Delta Aie Lines, Conagra Brands, Levi Strauss, and Wipro. While these companies are not part of the Dow Jones, they will have an impact because they will provide more information about the state of the economy during the tariff era.

FOMC minutes

The other top catalyst for the Dow Jones Index will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the last meeting. These minutes, which comes out on Wednesday, will provide more information about the last meeting.

Most importantly, they will provide more color on what to expect in the next meetings and the potential future of rate cuts. Still, the minutes will likely not move the Dow Jones as it normally does because of the last nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data.

The data showed that the economy added over 147,000 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Therefore, these numbers mean that the economy is doing well, meaning that interest rate cuts will be unnecessary this month. 

Most analysts are now predicting that the Fed will start cutting rates in its July meeting. 

Trump and Elon Musk feud

The other notable catalyst for the Dow Jones Index will be the ongoing feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. This feud could accelerate after Musk announced the launch of the American Party following the approval of the Big Beautiful Bill last week. 

Musk has condemned the bill, which eliminated some clean energy credits and increased public spending substantially, eliminating the impact of his work at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). 

The post Top catalysts for the Dow Jones Index this week appeared first on Invezz

On Monday (June 30), Statistics Canada released its natural resource indicator report for the first quarter of 2025.

The data shows a 1.6 percent growth quarter-over-quarter in the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the sector during the three-month period, indicating that the sector outpaced the broader economy, which posted an increase of just 0.5 percent.

The energy subsector led the way with a 2.2 percent gain, driven by increases of 2 percent in crude oil and 3.4 percent in electricity.

The minerals and mining sector increased by just 0.4 percent overall. Within it, the manufacturing of metallic mineral products grew 4 percent, and non-metallic mineral extraction rose 3.2 percent. On the other hand, metallic mineral extraction declined by 2.9 percent

Although real GDP increased, exports declined at the start of the year. Energy exports fell by 1.8 percent, due to a 12.4 percent decrease in outgoing refined petroleum products. Similarly, mineral and mining exports were also down by a more modest 0.9 percent.

South of the border, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” was passed by the US Congress on Thursday (July 3). The legislation is a cornerstone policy of President Donald Trump’s economic policy and includes several significant tax and spending cuts.

Among the provisions is an extension of US$4.5 trillion in tax breaks originally enacted by Trump in 2017 during his first term.

The package will increase defense and national security spending, including significantly increased funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and money earmarked for the development of the “Golden Dome” missile defense system.

To offset the decrease in tax income and increase in spending, the government made US$1.2 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and food stamps and clawed back green energy tax credits.

Critics of the bill have warned that it would result in increased deficit spending by the government, as shortfalls are expected to add more than US$3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.

Markets and commodities react

In Canada, markets were closed on Tuesday (July 1) for the Canada Day holiday. Equity markets saw moderate gains this week with the S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) rising 1.24 percent to close at 27,036.16 on Friday. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) fared better, gaining 3.9 percent to 755.22, while the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) climbed 1.9 percent to 120.92.

Markets in the US also had a shortened week and were closed on Friday for the July 4 holiday. US equities were also in positive territory this week, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) gaining 2.09 percent to close Thursday at 6,279.36, the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) climbing 1.7 percent to 22,866.97 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) rising 0.77 percent to 44,828.54.

The gold price rose 1.85 percent to US$3,333.90 by Friday at 4 p.m. EDT, while the silver price ended the week up 2.39 percent to US$36.85.

In base metals, the COMEX copper price was unchanged this week at US$5.12 per pound. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) gained 1.49 percent to close at 552.55.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

How did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stock data for this article was retrieved at 4 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Mineral companies within the non-energy minerals, energy minerals, process industry and producer manufacturing sectors were considered.

1. Mkango Resources (TSXV:MKA)

Weekly gain: 90 percent
Market cap: C$147.17 million
Share price: C$0.57

Mkango Resources is a rare earths exploration and development company focused on advancing rare earths mining and recycling projects.

The company owns the Songwe Hill rare earths project in Southeast Malawi. The property comprises 11 retention licenses and has undergone historic exploration dating back to the 1980s.

A July 2022 feasibility study for the property demonstrated economic viability with a post-tax net present value of US$559 million, an internal rate of return of 31.5 percent and a payback period of 2.5 years.

The report was based on a February 2019 mineral reserve estimate that reported measured and indicated total rare earth oxide (TREO) resources of 297,400 metric tons from 21.03 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 1.5 percent and inferred resources of 366,200 metric tons of TREOs from 27.54 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 1.33 percent.

The company is also developing the Pulawy rare earth separation plant in Poland in partnership with Grupa Azoty Zakłady Azotowe. Once complete, the plant is expected to produce 2,000 metric tons per year of neodymium, praseodymium and didymium oxides. It will also produce 50 metric tons per year of dysprosium and terbium oxides.

Additionally, Mkango holds a 79.4 percent interest in Maginito, which owns HyProMag, a company specializing in the recycling of rare earth magnets. The remaining 20.6 percent interest is held by CoTec Holdings (TSXV:CTH,OTCQB:CTHCF).

Shares in Mkango were up this week after the company announced on Thursday that it had entered into a definitive business combination agreement with Crown PropTech Acquisitions. The company stated that its subsidiary, Lancaster Exploration, and other subsidiaries would merge with Crown PropTech to create what it describes as a vertically integrated, global rare earths platform that incorporates Songwe Hill and the Pulawy separation plant. The combined entity will be named Mkango Rare Earths and trade on the Nasdaq.

Following the deal, which is targeted to close in Q4, Mkango will focus on its rare earths recycling business.

2. Lithium South (TSXV:LIS)

Weekly gain: 50 percent
Market cap: C$55.61 million
Share price: C$0.18

Lithium South is an exploration and development company working to advance its Hombre Muerto North lithium brine project in Argentina. The property consists of nine concessions covering a land package of 5,687 hectares.

According to its April 2024 preliminary economic assessment, the company is planning to install production wells at the Tramo, Natalia Maria and Alba Sabrina concessions. The assessment demonstrated project economics with a post-tax net present value of US$934 million, an internal rate of return of 31.6 percent and a payback period of 2.5 years.

The included mineral resource estimate for the three concessions reported a combined measured and indicated lithium resource of 297,400 metric tons from 404.1 million cubic meters of brine with an average concentration of 736 milligrams per liter.

The most recent news from Lithium South was released on June 25, when the company provided an update on its environmental impact assessment. Lithium South said that it had received a response from the mining secretariat of the Salta Province regarding the assessment and was in the process of responding to obtain final approval, which would allow the company to construct a pilot plant for its definitive feasibility study.

3. Oceanic Iron Ore (TSXV:FEO)

Weekly gain: 46.81 percent
Market cap: C$55.61 million
Share price: C$0.345

Oceanic Iron Ore is an exploration and development company working to advance its Ungava Bay iron projects in Northern Québec, Canada.

The properties consist of 3,000 claims covering a total land package of 1,500 square kilometers across three project areas: Hopes Advance, Morgan Lake and Roberts Lake.

A January 2020 preliminary economic assessment for Hopes Advance presented project economics, showing a post-tax net present value of US$1.4 billion, an internal rate of return of 16.8 percent and a payback period of 6.7 years.

The report also included a mineral reserve estimate for Hopes Advance with a measured and indicated resource of 515 million metric tons of iron concentrate from 1.39 billion metric tons of ore with an average grade of 32.1 percent.

On Monday, Oceanic announced it settled C$139,666 in accrued interest from several debentures by issuing common shares at a price of C$0.24. While its share price didn’t move much on that news, it picked up steam significantly in the latter half of the week.

4. Excellon Resources (TSXV:EXN)

Weekly gain: 44.44 percent
Market cap: C$55.61 million
Share price: C$0.325

Excellon Resources is an exploration and development company that is advancing its recently acquired Mallay silver mine in Peru back into production.

Mining at the site produced 6 million ounces of silver, 45 million pounds of zinc and 35 million pounds of lead between 2012 and 2018 before the operation was placed on care and maintenance.

On June 24, Excellon announced that it had completed its acquisition of Minera CRC, and its Mallay mine and Tres Cerros gold-silver project in Peru.

Excellon began the court-supervised acquisition process in October 2024. On March 11, Excellon announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement with Adar Mining and Premier Silver, which resolved any outstanding disputes between Adar, Premier, and Minera, and paved the way to complete the transaction.

In the June release, the company stated that it will immediately commence the next phase of its strategy to restart the mine. As Mallay is fully permitted with infrastructure in place, Excellon is aiming for run-rate silver production in Q2 of next year.

Additionally, the company announced on Thursday that it had appointed Mike Hoffman to its board of directors. Hoffman has been in the mining sector for over 35 years, and has experience with developing mines in Latin America.

5. Benz Mining (TSXV:BZ)

Weekly gain: 40.54 percent
Market cap: C$121.72 million
Share price: C$0.52

Benz Mining is a gold exploration company that is focused on advancing projects in Québec and Western Australia.

Its flagship Eastmain project consists of an 8,000 hectare property located in Central Québec within the Upper Eastmain Greenstone belt. The most recent mineral resource estimate from May 2023 reported an indicated resource of 384,000 ounces of gold from 1.3 metric tons of ore grading 9 g/t gold, and an inferred resource of 621,000 ounces of gold from 3.8 metric tons grading 5.1 g/t.

Earlier this year, Benz acquired the Glenburgh and Mt Egerton gold projects in Western Australia from Spartan Resources (ASX:SPR). It has spent much of 2025 exploring Glenburgh, which covers an area of 786 square kilometers and features 50 kilometers of strike. The site hosts six priority extension targets and 5 kilometers of exploration trend with over 100 parts per billion gold.

A November 2024 mineral resource estimate for Glenburgh showed an indicated and inferred resource of 510,000 ounces of gold from 16.3 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 1 g/t gold.

On June 30, the company reported that it had encountered high-grade intercepts during its drill program at Glenburgh. One hole returned a grade of 2.9 g/t over 72 meters which included an intersection of 5.1 g/t over 39 meters at a depth of 319 meters.

The company stated that the results represent a significant step forward in “understanding and expanding the gold system.”

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

What is the difference between the TSX and TSXV?

The TSX, or Toronto Stock Exchange, is used by senior companies with larger market caps, and the TSXV, or TSX Venture Exchange, is used by smaller-cap companies. Companies listed on the TSXV can graduate to the senior exchange.

How many mining companies are listed on the TSX and TSXV?

As of February 2025, there were 1,572 companies listed on the TSXV, 905 of which were mining companies. Comparatively, the TSX was home to 1,859 companies, with 181 of those being mining companies.

Together the TSX and TSXV host around 40 percent of the world’s public mining companies.

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend this week’s BRICS Summit in Brazil, marking the first time the Chinese leader has missed the gathering of major emerging economies. The abrupt decision has triggered widespread speculation about internal political dynamics within China and the fraying cohesion of BRICS itself.

China’s official explanation — a ‘scheduling conflict’ and the fact that Xi already met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva earlier this year, according to the South China Morning Post — has been met with skepticism. Premier Li Qiang will attend the summit in Xi’s place, continuing a recent trend of Xi scaling back his appearances on the global stage.

‘That doesn’t make sense,’ said Gordon Chang, an expert on U.S.-China relations. ‘There are many other countries at the BRICS summit, not just Brazil. To me, it’s extremely significant that Xi Jinping is not going. It suggests turbulence at home — there are signs he’s lost control of the military and that civilian rivals are reasserting power. This is a symptom of that.’

Bryan Burack of the Heritage Foundation agrees that Xi’s absence underscores deeper issues: ‘It’s another indication that BRICS is not going to be China’s vassalization of the Global South.’ He noted that countries like Brazil and Indonesia have recently imposed tariffs on China over industrial overcapacity and dumping, moves that suggest widening rifts within the group.

‘China is actively harming all those countries for the most part, maybe with some exceptions, through its malign trade policies and dumping and overcapacity.’

Tensions with India and global trade pressure may also be factors

Some analysts point to rising China-India friction as a contributing factor in Xi’s decision to skip the summit. 

‘China has been at war with India for decades, essentially,’ Burack said. ‘These are fundamentally opposing interests. It’s difficult to see China changing its behavior in the near term, and that will keep tensions high.’

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to take a leading role at the gathering, potentially another deterrent for Xi’s attendance.

Another key leader — Russian President Vladimir Putin — is only expected to address the group by video. 

BRICS: United in name, divided in decades-long tensions 

Formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China and later joined by South Africa, BRICS was envisioned as a non-Western counterweight to G7 dominance. It has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE and, most recently, Indonesia, strengthening its economic footprint.

Economist Christian Briggs highlighted BRICS’s massive scale: ‘BRICS now comprises 12 full members and up to 23 when counting partners. Collectively, they account for over 60% of the world’s GDP and around 75% of the global population. They control vast natural resources and a growing share of global trade flows.’

Yet despite its scale, the bloc remains ideologically and strategically fragmented. ‘It’s a group of countries that hate each other,’ Burack said bluntly. ‘China is harming many of them through unfair trade practices. There’s not a lot of incentive for real unity.’

Currency ambitions and strategic divergences

The alliance’s aspirations to challenge the U.S. dollar through alternative payment systems and a potential BRICS currency have gained media traction — but experts caution against overestimating this threat.

‘There’s been a lot of fearmongering about a BRICS currency,’ said Burack. ‘But the interests of these countries are completely divergent. There’s more smoke than fire when it comes to a currency challenge to the dollar.’

Chang echoed this skepticism: ‘The only country that can challenge the dollar is the United States. Weakness in the dollar is due to what we are doing domestically, not what the BRICS are doing.’

Still, Briggs offered a counterpoint, arguing that BRICS members are already reshaping global currency flows.

‘They’re moving away from the dollar into digital yuan, rupees, rubles. China has launched a SWIFT alternative already adopted by the Caribbean banking sector — trillions of dollars are shifting.’

Is BRICS still a threat to U.S. influence?

While its cohesion remains questionable, BRICS poses a long-term challenge to U.S. influence — particularly in regions where Washington has retreated diplomatically and economically.

‘China filled the void left by the U.S. in places like Africa,’ said Briggs. ‘Now it controls about 38% of the world’s minerals. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy has doubled despite sanctions, because they preemptively reduced reliance on the dollar.’

Yet Chang sees India as a brake on any aggressive anti-Western tilt. ‘BRICS has an ‘I’ in it—and that’s India. Modi doesn’t want to be part of an anti-Western bloc. As long as India’s in BRICS, the rest of the world is safe.’

A missed opportunity — or a calculated power move?

To some, Xi’s no-show signals instability in Beijing. To others, the opposite: it demonstrates confidence in China’s dominance over the other BRICS members.

‘He doesn’t have to be there,’ Briggs contended. ‘Xi’s power allows him to delegate. China is trading with nearly 80% of the world now. He’s moving the agenda forward even in absentia.’

What’s clear is that BRICS continues to evolve — its internal contradictions as visible as its geopolitical ambitions. Whether Xi’s absence marks a retreat or a recalibration remains one of the key questions hovering over the summit in Brazil.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS