US President Donald Trump has said he wants access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits in exchange for future military aid that Kyiv needs as it continues to defend itself against Russia’s aggression.

While the comment highlighted Trump’s transactional approach to the war in Ukraine, it was not entirely unexpected. The US and other Western countries have eyed Ukraine’s mineral riches for a long time.

“We’re putting in hundreds of billions of dollars. They have great rare earths. And I want security of the rare earth, and they’re willing to do (that),” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, without specifying what, if anything, Ukraine had agreed to do.

He has previously suggested that any future assistance should be provided as a loan and would be conditioned on Ukraine negotiating with Russia.

Under former US President Joe Biden, the US had provided Ukraine with $65.9 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022.

Biden argued the aid was necessary because Ukraine’s victory was key to America’s own security. Trump, however, has made it clear he doesn’t believe the US should continue providing assistance without getting something in return.

While Trump did not give any details on what he wants from Kyiv, a deal outlining a deeper cooperation between the US and Ukraine on minerals had been in the works for months before he took office in January.

A memorandum of understanding prepared under the Biden administration last year said the US would to promote investment opportunities in Ukraine’s mining projects to American companies in exchange for Kyiv creating economic incentives an implementing good business and environmental practices.

Ukraine already has a similar agreement with the European Union, signed in 2021.

Adam Mycyk, a partner in the Kyiv office of the global law firm Dentons, said that while the objective of the deal – securing critical mineral supplies from Ukraine – remains unchanged, Trump’s approach seems to be more transactional.

Kyiv has not yet responded to Trump’s comments, but the Ukrainian government has in the past made the argument that its mineral deposits are one of the reasons the West should support Ukraine – to prevent these strategically important resources from falling into Russian hands.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has specifically mentioned the possibility of future investments in the country’s natural resources by its Western allies as a key part of his “Victory plan.”

“The deposits of critical resources in Ukraine, along with Ukraine’s globally important energy and food production potential, are among the key predatory objectives of the Russian Federation in this war. And this is our opportunity for growth,” Zelensky said in a statement outlining the plan in October.

Nataliya Katser-Buchkovska, the co-founder of the Ukrainian Sustainable Investment Fund, said a deal that would bring US investment into Ukraine’s mining sector would be beneficial for both sides.

The US largely depends on imports for the minerals it needs, many of which come from China. Of the 50 minerals classed as critical, the US was entirely dependent on imports of 12 and more than 50% dependent on imports of a further 16, according to the United States Geological Survey, a government agency.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has deposits of 22 of these 50 critical materials, according to the Ukrainian government.

“It is not only a crucial step for Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery, but it’s also a chance for the US to address global supply chain issues,” said Katser-Buchkovska, who served as a member of the Ukrainian Parliament from 2014 to 2019 and was the head of a parliamentary committee on energy security and transition.

China’s global dominance

Although Trump used the term “rare earths,” it is unclear whether he intended to refer specifically to rare earth minerals – a group of 17 elements that exist in the earth’s core and have magnetic and conductive properties that make them crucial to the production of electronics, clean energy technologies and some weapon systems.

Ukraine doesn’t have globally significant reserves of rare earth minerals, but it does have some of the world’s largest deposits of graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium and uranium, all of which are classed by the US as critical minerals. Some of these reserves are in areas that are currently under Russian occupation.

China has long dominated the global production of rare earths minerals and other strategically important materials. It is responsible for nearly 90% of global processing of rare earth minerals, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). On top of that, China is also the world’s largest producer of graphite and titanium, and a major processor of lithium.

The latest trade spat between Washington and Beijing makes it even more important for the US to look for alternative suppliers.

The economic measures China announced on Tuesday in retaliation for Trump’s new tariffs include new export controls on more than two dozen metal products and related technologies. While they do not cover the most critical materials the US needs, the move indicates that China is prepared to use its mineral riches as leverage in trade disputes.

Mycyk said that the demand for these critical materials is expected to surge because of the global transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies.

“Ukraine’s deposits are thus globally significant, offering diversification away from dominant producers like China. Keeping these resources under Ukrainian control is crucial for maintaining its economic sovereignty,” he added.

A female swimmer has died in a shark attack in the waters off a popular tourist spot on Australia’s east coast, authorities said.

Emergency crews were called to the Woorim Beach at Bribie Island, about 80 kms (50 miles) north of Brisbane around 5 p.m. local time on Monday following reports of a serious shark bite incident, Queensland state police said on Monday.

“The female was swimming when she was bitten by a shark … the female sustained life-threatening injuries and succumbed to those injuries,” a police spokesperson said in an email.

Police did not disclose the age of the victim though Australian media widely reported the victim was a 17-year-old girl.

Christopher Potter, a resident, said the beach is frequently used by swimming groups through the day.

“It’s known there are a lot of sharks around Bribie, but this close to shore, it’s still a shock,” he told Australian public broadcaster ABC News.

A deadline to begin talks on extending Gaza’s ceasefire arrived Monday with the Israeli prime minister in Washington, silence from his office about when a negotiating team might engage with Hamas, and considerable uncertainty about what the next stage of the fragile truce will look like.

The ceasefire, in place for just over two weeks, is set to expire on March 1. Under the terms of the deal, talks on the next phase are supposed to begin no later than Monday.

But the Israeli government has yet to publicly unveil a negotiating team for the talks, let alone send them to Qatar or Egypt, where Hamas is sending a delegation this week. Hamas has not publicly commented on Monday’s deadline.

Qatar’s prime minister, who has acted as an intermediary in the talks, said Sunday that there were “no clear details” on when or how the talks would start. “We hope to see some movement in the coming days,” Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said during a press conference in Doha.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that he sees the path forward not in Doha or Cairo, but in Washington, where he will this week become the first foreign leader to hold a formal meeting with US President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu’s office said on the eve of his departure that he had agreed with Trump’s Middle East envoy that “negotiations on the second phase of the hostage deal will begin with their meeting in Washington,” during which “they will discuss Israel’s positions.”

Since the ceasefire went into effect on January 19, Hamas and its allies have released 18 hostages held in Gaza. In exchange, the Israeli government has released 583 Palestinians held in detention – some serving life sentences for serious offenses – but also a significant number of children held without public charge or trial.

The ceasefire has seen the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gazan population centers, a surge of aid entering the enclave and, for the first time since May last year, the opening of the vital Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt for the evacuation of injured and sick Palestinians.

It has also largely held apart from a few violations – only the second respite in 15 months of war, after a brief truce in November 2023.

Chief among Netanyahu’s concerns this week will be what Trump wants. The American president was not yet in office during the first round of ceasefire talks, though his team played a large role in pushing Israel toward a deal.

“Our decisions and the courage of our soldiers have redrawn the map,” Netanyahu said on the tarmac of Ben Gurion Airport Sunday. “But I believe that, working closely with President Trump, we can redraw it even further and for the better.”

But Gershon Baskin, a veteran Israeli negotiator and peace activist, said in a statement that Netanyahu’s “refusal to begin negotiations on the day stipulated in the agreement is a clear violation of the agreement.”

“Israel demands that Hamas adhere to all the terms of the agreement, while simultaneously violating it in a significant way. Once again, Netanyahu is abandoning the hostages and endangering them.”

Trump claimed credit for the current ceasefire and pledged upon taking office to end foreign wars. But he has also now repeated his desire for the 2 million people of Gaza to leave so that “we just clean out that whole thing.” The forced displacement of civilians can constitute “a war crime and/or crime against humanity,” according to the United Nations.

Trump’s proposal was music to the ears of the most extreme minister in Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, who vehemently opposed the withdrawal of Israeli forces and settlers from Gaza in 2005, wants Jews to resettle in the enclave.

“Encouraging migration (of Palestinians out of Gaza) is the only solution that will bring peace and security to the residents of Israel and alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s Arab residents,” he said after Trump expressed his desire for Palestinians to leave.

Already one minister – the far-right Itamar Ben-Gvir – has withdrawn his party from the Israeli government over the ceasefire, calling it a capitulation. Smotrich has pledged he will do the same if Israel does not renew the war in Gaza when the current, first phase of the ceasefire expires.

Kareem Khadder, Mike Schwartz and Eyad Kourdi contributed to this report.

On the first day of November, Aleksandar Matkovic was running late for a train. He was traveling from Novi Sad, in the north of Serbia, to its capital Belgrade, where he works as an economic historian. When he got to the station, he witnessed a scene of horror that has rocked the country to this day.

Minutes before he arrived, the canopy of the station – where reconstruction had been completed months earlier – had collapsed, crushing passengers waiting on the platform. Fifteen people were killed.

Shock soon turned to anger. The crumbled canopy has come to serve as a potent symbol of what many Serbs see as corruption at the heart of the state, sculpted by President Aleksandar Vucic and his government over 12 years in power. What began as vigils for the dead have become near-daily protests, drawing in ever-larger segments of Serbian society and reaching every corner of the Balkan nation. “We’re in uncharted territory,” said Matkovic.

The student-led demonstrations, demanding the full release of documents about the reconstruction works, have become so large and so lasting that some have questioned whether they could bring down Vucic’s reign. “All sorts of questions are going through people’s minds,” said Matkovic.

Vucic has dominated Serbia since coming to power as prime minister in 2014, then president three years later. A former information minister for the brutal Yugoslav regime of Slobodan Milosevic, Serbian democracy has degraded under Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Freedom House, which measures the strength of democracies, said Serbia declined from “free” to “party free” in 2019, citing attacks on the media and concentration of power in the hands of the president.

His regime is hard to categorize, analysts say. It is not as repressive as Aleksander Lukashenko’s Belarus, but neither as permissive as Viktor Orban’s Hungary. Ivana Stradner, a fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said Vucic has “made Serbia what Russia was like in the early 1990s, leaning towards a criminal, corrupt state with no rule of law.”

Still, his detractors praise him as a canny operator. In an increasingly multipolar world, countries such as Serbia – a regional powerhouse that the West has tried to prize away from its historic ally Russia – enjoy plenty of options. For Moscow, Serbia can stem the westward slide of other Balkan nations. For Europe, a huge proposed lithium mine could make it important for the green transition. For China, Serbia offers the chance to extend its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative.

Even some in the United States have interests in the country. Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, is reportedly working on a deal to build a Trump-branded hotel in Belgrade, with capital from various Gulf states.

For Serbia, this transactional approach may not add up to a coherent ideology – it has sold weapons to Ukraine but refuses to join sanctions against Russia – but it has been profitable. Serbia has been kept plied with Russian gas, Chinese infrastructure, European investment, and even glitzy American construction projects.

Turning point

This “strategic ambiguity,” as Stradner calls it, has come at the cost of domestic discontent, however.

“People have had enough,” said Engjellushe Morina, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The students are fed up with this rhetoric … where Vucic says one thing for internal consumption and another thing for international consumption.”

Anger with the government had been brewing for years. In May 2023, when Serbia was rocked by two mass shootings, people protested the country’s “culture of violence.” There were more demonstrations after a disputed election later that year, with the opposition calling for a rerun. They also lasted for weeks but eventually fizzled out.

This time is different, protesters and analysts say. Latent discontent with the government found its expression in the Novi Sad station tragedy. The station had been hastily reopened in 2022 – with Vucic and Orban in attendance – ahead of an election held that year, before being closed for more works by a Chinese company and its subcontractors. Matkovic said Serbs felt the project was “fast tracked” and “pushed by political elites.” It reopened in July 2024, just four months before its newly built canopy collapsed.

While previous scandals have failed to stick to Vucic, this one has. The perception of alleged corruption is “one thing that unifies all people,” said Stradner.

Serbian prosecutors have so far indicted 13 people for their role in the disaster, including the former minister for construction, transport and infrastructure, but protesters have demanded that more be done to hold people politically and criminally accountable.

‘The fear factor is gone’

Analysts say Vucic is skilled in thwarting protests by making targeted concessions, jettisoning allies, catching the opposition off-guard or ridiculing the movement. He regularly labels protesters as “foreign agents” attempting to stage a “color revolution,” as in other former Soviet states.

But these demonstrations represent a new challenge. Because they began as acts of mourning, they were largely free of “political” signs such as European Union flags, which Vucic has previously used to discredit demonstrations.

The protests have also drawn in broad swaths of Serbian society. In scenes reminiscent of the end of Milosevic’s regime, farmers have joined in, driving their tractors into Belgrade.

Even judges have come on board – a shock, given Vucic’s control of much of the judiciary, said Edward P. Joseph, a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University who served for a dozen years in the Balkans, including with NATO.

It is not clear how Vucic can reclaim that power, Joseph said. Because Vucic must “play this charade” of responsibility, a violent crackdown would be “writing his own epitaph.”

But the opposite approach – embarking on large-scale democratic reforms – is also challenging, said Morina. Although Prime Minister Milos Vucevic resigned this week, saying he did so “in order not to further raise tensions in society,” this has done little to satisfy the protesters.

“How convincing is it that he (Vucic) is going to be able to turn this whole movement that he has built – the SNS (the Serbian Progressive Party), the party supporters, the radicals, the football hooligans – how can he turn this into a democratic movement?” Morina said.

It is not clear what can break the deadlock. The protest movement has distanced itself from opposition politicians, meaning there is no obvious alternative waiting in the wings. But this could be a strength, Stradner said.

“It’s time to stop having a cult of personality that Serbia has had for decades. It’s time to believe more in laws, in the judiciary, in checks and balances, than to believe in one personality type,” she said.