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August 16, 2025

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Morgan Stanley turns more optimistic on Apple as iPhone outlook improves

3 Mins Read

Morgan Stanley has expressed renewed optimism about Apple Inc., citing stronger-than-expected iPhone demand in China and the potential for upward estimate revisions.

Analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a Thursday note that “the Apple story could be turning the corner,” driven by higher iPhone build forecasts and the possibility of valuation expansion.

Stronger iPhone builds in China fuel forecasts

According to Morgan Stanley’s China team, iPhone sales in the June quarter outperformed expectations, prompting an 8% increase in its September iPhone builds estimate.

This improvement stems from stronger-than-expected iPhone sell-through, which reduced channel inventory below normalized levels and created a larger restocking opportunity.

The revised build forecast is concentrated entirely on iPhone 16 (2 million units) and iPhone 16 Pro Max (2 million units) models.

Woodring noted that while the September quarter outlook has already factored in these improvements, it could signal more upside in the December quarter — a period that typically experiences greater volatility.

“Relative to our current 78 million December quarter iPhone shipment forecast, this could imply modest iPhone shipment upside, though we’ll be able to narrow this range next month when the iPhone 17 is officially launched,” he said.

AI integration still in development

Apple’s broader growth prospects also hinge on the rollout of Apple Intelligence, the company’s suite of artificial intelligence features.

Key functions, including an updated Siri with AI capabilities, have faced multiple delays since their initial announcement last year.

The company is expected to reveal details of its new iPhone model next month, which could align with further AI announcements.

Morgan Stanley believes forward iPhone unit and revenue growth expectations remain relatively muted, despite several positive factors.

These include elongated replacement cycles, pent-up demand, new form factors in development, and structural gross margin tailwinds.

Woodring also pointed out that pricing remains an “underappreciated lever” for both Apple’s products and services, noting that the company has not raised services prices in two years.

Market position and potential catalysts

Apple shares have fallen more than 7% in 2025, and according to Woodring, many institutional investors remain underweight the stock compared with other megacap technology peers.

He also highlighted that peak tariff risk has passed, regulation appears less of a near-term obstacle than previously feared, and Apple is trading in line with its trailing five-year average relative to the S&P 500.

While regulatory pressures persist as a long-term consideration, Morgan Stanley sees room for Apple to benefit from potential AI-related partnerships, which could serve as a catalyst for a breakout in the stock.

“In our view, Apple is one potential AI partnership away from breaking out,” Woodring concluded.

The note underscores a shift in sentiment among some Wall Street analysts, as policy clarity, product cycles, and improving demand dynamics give Apple fresh momentum heading into the second half of the year.

The next major update to investor expectations may come with the launch of the iPhone 17, expected to provide further visibility into both demand trends and the company’s AI strategy.

The post Morgan Stanley turns more optimistic on Apple as iPhone outlook improves appeared first on Invezz

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In World news

Editor’s Picks: Gold Tariff Threat Ends, Price Reacts to Fresh Inflation Data

5 Mins Read

The gold price cooled off this week as tariff-related uncertainty reached a resolution.

The yellow metal was thrust into headlines late last week when US Customs and Border Protection told a Swiss refiner that 1 kilogram and 100 ounce gold bars would be subject to Trump administration tariffs that went into effect on August 7.

Gold is one of Switzerland’s top exports to the US, and with the country facing a 39 percent levy, questions were rife about what the impact could be. Clarification came on Monday (August 11), when US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that gold ‘will not be tariffed.’

While the news calmed market participants, Keith Weiner of Monetary Metals believes the incident could have long-term impacts. He said the tariff confusion caused the spread between spot gold and gold futures to blow out, creating difficulties for entities using the market to hedge.

Here’s how Weiner explained it:

‘Once you’ve put the scare into everybody, you can’t just say, ‘Oh, sorry, just kidding.’ You can’t really do that. And so now we’ve done damage, and we’ll see what happens to that spread over time. We’ll see how users of the futures market adapt.

‘There are other markets in the world that would be competing for this hedging business — maybe it moves to Singapore, maybe it moves to Dubai, maybe it moves to London, and the US loses not only a little more trust, but also a little bit of volume on what had been the biggest, or what is currently the biggest, futures market.’

This week also brought the release of US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI for July was up 0.2 percent from the previous month and 2.7 percent from the year-ago period. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes the food and energy categories, was up 0.3 percent month-on-month and 3.1 percent from the same time last year.

While those numbers were largely in line with expectations, seasonally adjusted July PPI figures came in hotter than expected, rising 0.9 percent month-on-month compared to Dow Jones’ forecast of 0.2 percent. Core PPI increased 0.9 percent from June compared to an estimated rise of just 0.3 percent.

Speaking about the implications of the data, Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research said it shows companies aren’t yet passing tariff-related price increases on to consumers.

This is what she said about how these circumstances could develop:

‘I do think that we will see where companies feel they can push through price increases — I think we’ll see that. We saw quite a bit of food inflation in the PPI, and when you’re talking about things like essentials, and especially with very, very low-margin types of sales, we could see what we call the substitution effect begin, where households end up buying other things. The classic is always that they trade down from steak to ground beef, or trade down from beef to chicken.

‘We’re going to see whether or not that plays out again.’

While the PPI data has slightly dampened expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates when it meets in September, CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool still shows a strong probability of a reduction at that time.

Bullet briefing — CATL closes mine, Mitsubishi invests in copper

CATL temporarily closes lithium mine

Contemporary Amperex Technology (HKEX:3750,SZSE:300750), better known as CATL, said on Sunday (August 10) that it will halt production at a lithium mine in China for at least three months.

Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that CATL, which is the world’s largest electric vehicle battery maker, failed to extend a key mining permit. The company is reportedly in talks about a renewal, but is prepared for a months-long shutdown.

Share prices of lithium miners rose on the news, buoyed by expectations that the CATL mine closure will help reduce oversupply. Excess output has caused Chinese lithium prices to drop 80 percent since the end of 2022, and investors are keen to see a turnaround for the beleaguered battery metal.

Hudbay, Mitsubishi team up on copper

Mitsubishi (TSE:8058) is set to acquire a 30 percent stake in Hudbay Minerals’ (TSX:HBM,NYSE:HBM) Arizona-based Copper World subsidiary for US$600 million.

Hudbay called Mitsubishi its ‘strategic partner of choice,’ while Mitsubishi said the investment will help advance its copper growth plans. A feasibility study is in the works for Copper World, and a definitive feasibility study is expected in mid-2026.

Hudbay shareholders reacted positively to the news, which comes on the back of a strong focus on copper supply after last month’s announcement of a 50 percent tariff on US imports of semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products. The company projects that Copper World will result in a direct $1.5 billion investment into the US critical minerals supply chain.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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In Business

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reveals new stake in beleaguered insurer UnitedHealth

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed a new stake in troubled insurer UnitedHealth last quarter, according to a regulatory filing, a surprising buy because of the company’s current reputation, but perhaps not considering his history of bargain investing.

The Omaha-based conglomerate bought more than 5 million shares in the health care firm for a stake worth about $1.6 billion at the end of June. The stake puts it as the 18th biggest position in the Berkshire portfolio behind Amazon and Constellation Brands, according to VerityData.

Berkshire’s equity portfolio is worth about $300 billion, so it is possible that Buffett’s two investing lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler were more responsible for this purchase rather than the “Oracle of Omaha” himself. Buffett said one of his investment managers was behind the Amazon investment in 2019.

The insurer’s stock shot up 6% in extended trading following Berkshire’s disclosure.

Shares of UnitedHealth were down nearly 50% for 2025 through Thursday’s close before Buffett’s filing. The largest private health insurer has become the face of a public blowback in this country against the rising costs of health care. UnitedHealth is currently facing a Justice Department investigation into its Medicare billing practices.

In May, the company pulled its annual earnings outlook and CEO Andrew Witty stepped down. Last month, UnitedHealth gave a new 2025 outlook that was well short of Wall Street estimates, hitting the stock further.

Buffett, who’s turning 95 this month, has been critical of the healthcare system in the U.S., calling it a “tapeworm” on the economy due to its high costs. In 2018, he, along with Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon, launched a joint venture to improve healthcare for their employees and potentially for all Americans, but it was eventually shut down.

UnitedHealth isn’t the only stock Berkshire picked up recently. In fact, the conglomerate also took small stakes in steel manufacturer Nucor, outdoor advertising company Lamar Advertising and security firm Allegion. Berkshire also got back into homebuilders Lennar and DR Horton.

Shares of Nucor jumped nearly 8% in afterhours trading, while Lennar and DR Horton popped about 3% each.

Buffett also pared his positions in Bank of America and Apple. The Apple stake was cut by about 7%. Berkshire’s largest positions as of the end of the second quarter were Apple, American Express, Bank of America, Coca-Cola and Chevron.

The legendary investor is stepping down as Berkshire CEO at the end of the year, handing over the reins to Greg Abel. Buffett will stay on as chairman of the board. It’s still unclear who will be in charge of Berkshire’s gigantic equity portfolio, though Buffett has alluded that Abel will be making all capital allocation decisions at the conglomerate.

UnitedHealth attracted other buyers last quarter, according to filings, including Michael Burry and Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper. Shares of the insurer are trading at a price-earnings ratio of just under 12, near its lowest in more than a decade.

There was speculation regarding a mystery stock Buffett was buying as Berkshire had asked for permission to keep certain holdings secret last quarter. It turns out the secret stock was a combination of multiple positions and likely the stakes added in DR Horton, Nucor and Lennar “A” shares.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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In Politics

‘Absolutely incredible’: B-2 bomber, F-35 escort set stage for Trump-Putin talks in Alaska

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As President Donald Trump greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin on the tarmac at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, a B-2 stealth bomber soared overhead, flanked by four F-35 jets. 

Putin looked up at the sky as the planes buzzed overhead while he walked alongside Trump, and then made a comment to the U.S. president. 

The display was as much a symbol as it was a show of force—a pointed reminder of America’s military reach at the very moment the two leaders prepared to discuss the future of global security.

The dramatic arrival underscored the high-stakes nature of the Alaska summit, the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin since Trump’s return to the White House earlier this year. Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, situated just outside Anchorage, was chosen for its robust security, strategic location, and symbolic position—physically closer to Russia than Washington, D.C., yet firmly on American soil.

Onlookers in Anchorage and across social media quickly seized on the moment. Many called it an ‘insane flex,’ noting the B-2 bomber’s recent combat history.

Only two months ago, the stealth aircraft played a central role in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, dropping bunker-buster bombs in a move that drew both praise and condemnation on the world stage.

The B-2 Spirit, built by Northrop Grumman, is one of the most advanced aircraft ever created—capable of penetrating dense air defenses and striking targets anywhere in the world without refueling. Its distinctive flying-wing design and radar-absorbent coating make it nearly invisible to enemy radar. 

With a range of over 6,000 nautical miles and the ability to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons, the B-2 serves as a critical component of America’s nuclear triad. Only 21 were ever built, and fewer than 20 remain in service, making any public appearance a rare and deliberate statement.

‘Absolutely incredible,’ wrote one X user. Another added, ‘Putin now knows what will be greeting him if he were to ever cross that line that should never be crossed.’

After the brief tarmac ceremony, Putin entered ‘The Beast’ alongside Trump. The heavily armored presidential limousine rolled past a row of American fighter jets lined up in silent formation, their presence another visual reminder of the stakes surrounding the talks.

The two leaders traveled to a secure meeting hall on the base, beginning discussions at about 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Trump has said he plans to ‘set the table’ during the meeting for a future summit that includes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But still, he told Fox News’ Bret Baier he ‘won’t be happy’ if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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