Iran will not be participating in the nuclear negotiations with the United States scheduled on Sunday, the country announced on state television on Friday in the wake of Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile sites this morning.

Iran has also launched retaliatory attacks with Israel claiming the country has launched over 100 drones in the last few hours. 

Explosions were reported across Tehran, the central city of Natanz—home to one of Iran’s major nuclear enrichment plants—and several other locations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces had “struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program,” claiming they had also eliminated top Iranian military figures.

Among those reportedly killed in the strikes were Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s Chief of Staff, and Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), according to both Israeli authorities and Iranian state media.

Former US President Donald Trump, who withdrew the US from the original 2015 nuclear agreement during his first term, had expressed concern over the timing of the Israeli strikes.

“I worry this could blow the negotiations,” Trump said Thursday, adding that he had ordered some American personnel to evacuate the Middle East in case of Iranian counterstrikes that “could include missiles flying into their buildings.”

Iran has retaliated with over 100 drones, Israel claims

As news of the airstrikes broke, Iran launched a retaliatory barrage, with Israel claiming over 100 drones were deployed in response.

Air raid sirens reportedly sounded in several Israeli cities, though details of the damage remain sparse.

The situation has cast a shadow over the US-Iranian diplomatic efforts.

Negotiators from both countries were set to meet in Oman for the sixth round of discussions aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, which imposed strict limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief.

However, with Iran pulling out of the talks, the future of diplomatic engagement appears increasingly uncertain.

The talks had already been strained over whether Iran should be allowed to continue enriching uranium on its own soil—a right Tehran insists is non-negotiable.

IAEA confirms Natanz hit, but no radiation leak

The IAEA confirmed that the Natanz nuclear facility, a critical site for Iran’s uranium enrichment, had been struck but reported no abnormal radiation levels.

Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, the country’s first civilian nuclear facility, was not targeted in the attacks, Iranian officials told the watchdog.

Natanz, located about 150 miles south of Tehran, houses Iran’s most advanced centrifuges and has long been viewed by Western and Israeli intelligence agencies as a focal point of its nuclear ambitions.

“The type of concrete that (the Iranians) use is actually a very specialized, hardened concrete,” CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton said.

“It’s unclear whether Israel’s bombs can penetrate that type of concrete,” he said, adding that the Israelis would have to mount waves and waves of attacks.

Visual evidence from the scene showed thick plumes of smoke rising above the complex, though the full extent of the damage remains unclear.

Why does Israel oppose Iran’s nuclear activities?

Israel has long opposed any scenario where Iran could obtain a nuclear weapon.

The enmity between the two countries dates back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and is exacerbated by Iran’s financial and military support to Hezbollah, Hamas, and other militant groups arrayed against Israel.

Analysts warn that Iran’s nuclear program has reached a critical point.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued its first censure of Iran in two decades on Thursday, accusing Tehran of failing to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation commitments.

Iran rejected the censure, claiming it undermined the credibility of the global nuclear watchdog.

In May, Reuters reported seeing an IAEA report that found that Iran had carried out secret nuclear activities with material not declared to the nuclear watchdog at three locations that have long been under investigation.

In a separate report by IAEA, the watchdog said Iran now possesses enough enriched uranium—at 60% purity—to theoretically produce material for nine nuclear weapons if further refined to weapons-grade levels of 90%.

The fragile legacy of the 2015 deal

The original 2015 nuclear accord, signed under President Barack Obama, aimed to restrict Iran’s enrichment capabilities.

Under the agreement, Iran could enrich uranium to no more than 3.67% and maintain only a limited stockpile of 300kg using basic centrifuge technology.

After Trump’s 2018 withdrawal, Iran began incrementally breaching the deal’s limits, eventually reaching enrichment levels of up to 60%.

Despite severe economic sanctions and covert operations—including the assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020—Iran’s nuclear development has continued.

With regional tensions at a boiling point, the immediate future of diplomacy looks bleak. As the possibility of further strikes and counterstrikes looms, the world watches nervously for signs of either a renewed dialogue—or a broader conflict.

Will the attack set Iran back on its nuclear programme?

Will Israel’s attack dent Iran’s efforts to advance its nuclear programme?

The Natanz facility has long been the centerpiece of Iran’s nuclear program, producing the majority of the country’s enriched uranium — including much of the near-weapons-grade material accumulated over the past three years.

The full scale of damage to the site following Israeli airstrikes remains unclear.

There is still no confirmation on whether Israel also targeted Fordow, Iran’s second major enrichment facility.

Located deep within a mountain and housed inside an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base, Fordow was deliberately constructed to withstand aerial attacks.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, who has toured the site, has noted that it sits nearly a half-mile beneath the surface — making it the most fortified installation in Iran’s nuclear network.

“It may take days, or weeks, to answer one of the most critical questions surrounding the attack of Iran’s facilities: How long has Israel set back the Iranian nuclear program?” David E Sanger, White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times, who has covered Iran’s nuclear program for two decades, writes in a report.

“If the program is delayed only a year or two, it may look as if Israel has taken a huge risk for a fairly short-term delay. And among those risks is not only the possibility of a long-lasting war, but also that Iran will withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, take its program underground, and race for a weapon — exactly the outcome Mr. Netanyahu was out to prevent.”

Brett McGurk, who has advised multiple US administrations on Middle East affairs, emphasized the centrality of Fordow:

If you don’t get Fordow, you haven’t eliminated their ability to produce weapons-grade material.

American officials have said Israel does not have the bunker-busting bombs to get at that facility, where Iran’s most advanced centrifuges have been installed.

And if Fordow survives the attacks, then there is a good chance the key technology of the country’s the nuclear program will survive with it.

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