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May 29, 2025

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Anticipation is building in the oil market as the OPEC+ meeting approaches, with a production decision expected over the weekend. 

The eight cartel members who previously implemented voluntary production cuts are now contemplating a substantial rollback of these cuts in July. 

The eight members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including kingpin Saudi Arabia and Russia, had previously agreed to increase oil production by over 400,000 barrels daily in May and June. 

“Markets are currently influenced by headlines, but they are truly awaiting a clear signal from the fundamentals,” Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodities market, oil at Ryatad Energy, said in an email.

“Even when factoring in potential downside risks, the numbers we’re seeing suggest there’s space for additional OPEC+ output in July,” he added.

This is further noted in the Brent futures curve, which remains in backwardation through October 2025. 

Strength in prices

Oil prices have firmed over the last few sessions, albeit thinner trading earlier this week due to public holidays in the US and UK. 

“The strength is likely due to relief that the threat of new US tariffs against the EU has been postponed for the time being,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

However, many uncertainties remain, especially with regard to (US) sanctions policy.

On the one hand, there are the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran.

Although these were so far inconclusive, both sides remained optimistic after the fifth round of talks and want to meet again in the near future.

A possible easing of sanctions against Iran therefore remains on the table.

On the other hand, despite a downturn in relations between Russian President Putin and US President Donald Trump, triggered by Moscow’s extensive attacks on Ukraine, Trump has stated he will “absolutely consider” implementing new sanctions against Russia. 

Conversely, Russia appears intent on minimising the significance of Trump’s response.

“Chart-wise, crude oil has been in a downtrend ever since prices peaked in March 2022, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. 

But that doesn’t mean that prices can’t spike sharply in either direction.

Summer demand supports OPEC output increases

According to analysts and experts, oil demand rises sharply during the summer months from May to August. 

This presents a suitable opportunity for OPEC+ to increase oil production without flooding the market. 

Liquids demand growth this summer is being driven by Europe and the Middle East, rather than Asia or North America.

Supply-side growth is primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, the US, Canada, and Brazil. However, Canada’s output faces wildfire risks, and Brazil’s may see softer demand due to alternative supplies.

Global liquids demand is projected to grow by only 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to Rystad Energy’s calculations.

However, fundamentals from May to August are supportive, with demand growth outpacing supply growth by 600,000-700,000 barrels per day, the Norway-based energy intelligence company said.

Source: Rystad Energy

Additionally, crude and condensate demand is projected to exceed supply by over 1 million barrels daily for the indicated timeframe, Rystad noted. This assessment precedes the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this Saturday.

Refinery demand growth and supply

Globally, increased crude demand for refineries is anticipated from Asia, North America, Europe, and Russia.

Russian refinery operations may become especially important as tightening sanctions on its crude exports could lead to an increase in domestic refining.

“Overall, oil market uncertainty is likely to prompt many countries to maximize refinery runs and build product inventories, especially as stock levels remain low across regions,” Sahdev said. 

Challenges already plague US crude oil production, and the earlier narrative of a significant increase in drilling activity has faded.

With the West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the benchmark price for US oil, hovering around $60 per barrel, producers are unlikely to expand drilling activities, experts said. 

Source: Rystad Energy

Output declines elsewhere

From May to August, output reductions are anticipated for Kazakhstan and other OPEC+ participants. This situation will allow the eight OPEC+ nations to reactivate some of their previously offline supply.

To bolster refinery margins, Saudi Arabia might provide crude oil at reduced prices for July.

Strong product margins continue to support high levels of refinery operation. 

Furthermore, the recovery of high sulfur fuel oil margins into profitable territory provides an incentive for less complex refineries to also increase their processing rates.

“In this environment, driven by public narratives and differing opinions, OPEC+ has an opportunity to increase supply modestly in July,” Sahdev said.

However, beyond August into September, this window could close, and any further increase would likely depend on supply disruptions elsewhere in the market.

The post Summer demand could support OPEC+ output increases, say analysts appeared first on Invezz

In what is believed to be the largest European pre-seed funding round of the year, UK fintech startup Velocity has emerged with US$10 million in early backing to develop a stablecoin infrastructure platform.

The initiative is aimed squarely at large enterprises grappling with outdated cross-border financial systems.

The round, led by US-based Activant Capital, brings together global investors and fintech insiders, underscoring growing confidence in stablecoins as a practical tool for enterprise-grade settlement — not just crypto speculation.

Founded by payments veterans Tom Greenwood (Volt, IFX) and Eric Queathem (Worldpay, McKinsey & Company), Velocity aims to modernize the back-end plumbing of global money movement.

Rather than displacing traditional finance, the startup sees itself as a connective layer between banks and the blockchain, offering modular infrastructure that enables businesses to operate seamlessly across fiat and digital currencies.

“We’re not chasing crypto hype,” Greenwood, who serves as CEO, said in a statement. “We’re leveraging stablecoins to remove friction, accelerate settlement, and drive improved performance in real-world financial operations.”

That friction remains a massive challenge in today’s corporate finance landscape.

Large businesses routinely rely on patchwork systems for international payments, liquidity and currency management — often involving multiple banking partners, outdated software and opaque fees.

Velocity says it is addressing that complexity with a programmable, artificial intelligence-enabled platform that integrates stablecoins into traditional financial operations without requiring companies to overhaul their existing systems.

Greenwood and Queathem bring decades of experience to the table. Greenwood previously founded Volt, a fintech firm focused on real-time payments, and IFX, a foreign exchange and payments firm. Queathem spent nearly 10 years at Worldpay, where he led global strategy during its expansion into both legacy and crypto-enabled markets.

“We’ve experienced first-hand the financial complexity of operating a global business — the fragmentation of providers, the lack of transparency, and the workarounds,” said Queathem, who holds the position of president.

“Velocity is built to eliminate that friction with infrastructure that scales, adapts, and solves the real-world problems large enterprises face every day when moving and managing money around the world.”

Their pitch appears to have resonated with investors who see a broader shift underway. Fuel Ventures (LSE:FVV), Triton Capital, Fabric Ventures, Commerce Ventures and Preface Ventures all joined the round, alongside strategic angels from companies like Visa (NYSE:V), PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), Circle and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL).

For lead investor Activant Capital, the startup’s timing aligns with what it sees as a generational opportunity to reshape how capital flows. “Tom and Eric bring the rare technical depth and regulatory fluency needed to build and scale a product like this,” said Andrew Steele, partner at Activant, in Wednesday’s (May 28) release.

“We’ve shared this vision for years — and now is the time to bring it to life.”

Far from being a headwind, Velocity sees that regulatory movement as validation that the infrastructure moment for stablecoins has arrived. While Velocity hasn’t disclosed specific clients or product launch dates, early pilot programs are underway, with large enterprises exploring digital treasury functions and cross-border liquidity optimization.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Macy’s cut its full-year profit guidance on Wednesday even as it beat Wall Street’s quarterly earnings expectations, as the retailer’s CEO said it will hike prices of certain items to offset tariffs.

In a news release, the department store operator said it reduced its earnings outlook because of higher tariffs, more promotions and “some moderation” in discretionary spending. Macy’s stuck by its full-year sales forecast, however.

For fiscal 2025, Macy’s now expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.60 to $2, down from its previous forecast of $2.05 to $2.25. It reaffirmed its full-year sales guidance of between $21 billion and $21.4 billion, which would be a decline from $22.29 billion in the most recent full year.

In an interview with CNBC, CEO Tony Spring said about 15 cents to 40 cents per share of the guidance cut is due to tariffs. He said about 20% of the company’s merchandise comes from China.

Macy’s will raise some prices and stop carrying certain items to mitigate the hit from tariffs, he added.

“You’re dealing with it on both the demand side as well as the increased cost side,” he said. “And so navigating that, we have a series of different scenarios to try to figure out kind of what will be the reality, and we want our guidance to reflect the flexibility of that uncertainty, so that we can react in real time to how we serve or better serve the consumer.”

Spring said the company will be “surgical” with price changes.

“It’s not a one-size-fits-all kind of approach,” he said. “There are going to be items that are the same price as they were a year ago. There is going to be, selectively, items that may be more expensive, and there are items that we might not carry because the pricing doesn’t merit the quality or the perceived value by the consumer.”

Here’s how Macy’s did during its fiscal first quarter, compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

In the three-month period that ended May 3, the company’s net income was $38 million, or 13 cents per share, compared with $62 million, or 22 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Sales dropped from $4.85 billion in the year-ago quarter. Excluding some one-time charges including restructuring charges, adjusted earnings per share were 16 cents.

The company’s shares were down more than 2% in early trading on Wednesday.

Economic uncertainty — including President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff announcements — has complicated Macy’s turnaround plans. The New York City-based legacy retailer is more than a year into a three-year effort to become a smaller, but healthier business. It’s shuttering weaker stores and investing in stronger parts of the company, including luxury department store Bloomingdale’s and beauty chain Bluemercury. It has also tried to improve the customer experience, including by speeding up online deliveries and adding staff to stores.

Spring told analysts on the earnings call that the tariff impact on Macy’s outlook includes the additional costs of inventory previously imported under the 145% China tariffs, which have since dropped to 30%. He said the outlook does not include a potential increase in tariffs on the European Union or any other U.S. trading partner.

Trump recently threatened to implement, and then delayed, a 50% tariff on the EU.

Macy’s sells a mix of national band private brands, which are sold exclusively at its stores and on its website. Spring told CNBC that the company has reduced the share of its private brands that comes from China to about 27% — a drop from 32% last year and more than 50% before the Covid pandemic.

CFO Adrian Mitchell said on the company’s earnings call that Macy’s has taken action to blunt the impact of tariffs on national brands it sells, too. He said the company has renegotiated orders with vendors, canceled some orders and delayed others.

“We’ve been able to gain some vendor discounts, which has been helpful to us, but we’re absorbing some of that price as well,” he said.

And in some cases, Macy’s is keeping prices the same despite higher costs to appeal to value-conscious customers and gain market share from competitors, Mitchell added.

Spring said on the company’s earnings call on Wednesday that Macy’s sales were stronger in March and April compared to February, attributing some of that to improving weather. So far, sales trends in the second quarter have been above those in March and April, he added.

Macy’s plans to close about 150 underperforming namesake stores across the country by early 2027.

In the fiscal first quarter, Macy’s namesake brand remained its weakest. Comparable sales across Macy’s owned and licensed business, plus its online marketplace, declined 2.1% year over year.

When Macy’s took out the stores that it plans to shutter, however, trends looked slightly better. Comparable sales of its go-forward business, including its owned and licensed business and online marketplace, declined 1.9%

On the other hand, comparable sales at Bloomingdale’s rose 3.8% year over year, including its owned, licensed and marketplace businesses. Comparable sales at Bluemercury climbed 1.5% year over year.

To try to turn its namesake stores around, Macy’s has invested in 50 locations — dubbed the “First 50” — with more staffing, sharper displays and changes to its mix of merchandise. It has expanded that initiative to 75 additional stores, bringing the total to 125 locations that have gotten increased attention. That’s a little over a third of the 350 namesake locations that Macy’s plans to keep open.

Those 125 locations performed better than the overall Macy’s brand. Comparable sales among those revamped stores owned and licensed by Macy’s were down 0.8% compared with the year-ago period.

On Macy’s earnings call in March — before Trump made several sudden tariff moves that baffled companies and investors — Spring said the company’s guidance “assumes a certain level of uncertainty” about the economic outlook. He said even Macy’s affluent customer “is just as uncertain and as confused and concerned by what’s transpiring.”

Earlier this spring, Macy’s announced a few key leadership changes — including a new chief financial officer. Macy’s new CFO, Thomas Edwards, will begin on June 22. He previously served as the chief financial officer and chief operating officer of Capri Holdings, the parent company of Michael Kors. He will succeed Mitchell, who is leaving Macy’s.

As of Tuesday’s close, Macy’s shares are down about 29% so far this year. That trails the S&P 500′s nearly 1% gains during the same period. Macy’s stock closed on Tuesday at $12.04 per share, bringing the retailer’s market value to $3.35 billion.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

President Donald Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is terminating awards totaling more than $750 million dollars that were provided to pharmaceutical manufacturer Moderna to help facilitate its production of mRNA-based bird flu vaccines. 

During President Joe Biden’s final week in office, his administration awarded $590 million to Moderna to help speed up its production of mRNA-based vaccines. The $590 million award followed a separate $176 million award Biden gave to Moderna earlier last year for mRNA vaccine technology.

Messenger RNA vaccines are a newer type of vaccine technology, which was utilized by companies like Moderna and Pfizer to develop their COVID-19 vaccines. The vaccine technology was at the center of a lot of criticism amid the coronavirus pandemic for potentially being associated with adverse side effects in some people who took them, such as myocarditis.

Trump administration officials previously hinted at the potential that this funding could be terminated, citing a lack of oversight during the Biden administration pertaining to vaccine production. 

‘After a rigorous review, we concluded that continued investment in Moderna’s H5N1 mRNA vaccine was not scientifically or ethically justifiable,’ HHS Communications Director Andrew Nixon said. ‘This is not simply about efficacy — it’s about safety, integrity, and trust. The reality is that mRNA technology remains under-tested, and we are not going to spend taxpayer dollars repeating the mistakes of the last administration, which concealed legitimate safety concerns from the public.’

The announcement reflects a larger shift in federal vaccine priorities, after HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced earlier this week that COVID-19 vaccines would be removed from the federal government’s list of recommended vaccines for children and pregnant women. 

Meanwhile, a report from Senate Republicans released earlier this month suggested the Biden administration withheld critical safety data and downplayed known risks tied to the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. In particular, the Senate report focuses on HHS’ awareness of, and response to, cases of myocarditis — a type of heart inflammation — following COVID-19 vaccination.

‘Rather than provide the public and health care providers with immediate and transparent information regarding the risk of myocarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, the Biden administration waited until late June 2021 to announce changes to the labels for the Moderna and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines based on the ‘suggested increased risks’ of myocarditis and pericarditis,’ the Senate report states. ‘Even though CDC and FDA officials were well aware of the risk of myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination, the Biden administration opted to withhold issuing a formal warning to the public for months about the safety concerns, jeopardizing the health of young Americans.’

In response to the Trump administration’s funding termination, Moderna put out a press release acknowledging the move, but also touting the ‘safety profile’ observed amid its work on a new mRNA bird flu vaccine.

‘While the termination of funding from HHS adds uncertainty, we are pleased by the robust immune response and safety profile observed in this interim analysis of the Phase 1/2 study of our H5 avian flu vaccine and we will explore alternative paths forward for the program,’ said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. ‘These clinical data in pandemic influenza underscore the critical role mRNA technology has played as a countermeasure to emerging health threats.’

Fox News Digital’s Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS