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March 2025

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More than eight out of every 10 respondents to a Morgan Stanley survey believe Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s controversial political activities are hurting his business.

In total, 85% of the 245 participants polled by the firm believe Musk’s foray into politics has either had a “negative” or “extremely negative” impact on business fundamentals. The majority of respondents also expect Tesla deliveries to fall this year, according to the survey.

While a small sampling, these results offer the latest sign of mounting frustration with the billionaire entrepreneur as he’s become a rising figure in international and American politics. It also comes at a pivotal point for Tesla’s stock, with shares plunging nearly 40% this year.

When asked about Musk’s efforts with U.S. government efficiency and other political activities, 45% of respondents said these actions had a “negative” effect on the company. Another 40% said they were having an “extremely negative” impact.

On the other hand, 3% said they were “positive” for the business. Meanwhile, 12% called them “insignificant.”

To be sure, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reported that his survey respondents are drawn from his email distribution list and should not be taken as a random representative sample. He also noted that the respondents are not necessarily owners of Tesla stock. The survey was taken over a 17-hour period, starting on Tuesday afternoon.

Jonas also asked about expectations for the company’s performance. In a separate question, 59% said they anticipated Tesla would deliver fewer cars to customers in 2025 compared with the prior year. What’s more, 21% of total respondents said they expected a decline of more than 10%. That comes as some analysts have raised alarm that recent reports of vandalism could spook potential customers.

Just 19% of responders said they forecasted deliveries to rise in 2025, while another 23% said they would be flat between the two years.

Musk’s political profile has grown after his public support of President Donald Trump in the runup up to last year’s election and his subsequent role leading the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. The Tesla executive’s efforts to slash the federal government’s spending and workforce has drawn the ire of critics who see his team as working too quickly and haphazardly.

Musk acknowledged in an interview with Fox Business on Monday that his high-profile role in Trump’s administration meant he was running his businesses, which also include X and SpaceX, “with great difficulty.” That day, Tesla shares tumbled more than 15% for their worst session since 2020.

Despite the recent nosedive, 45% of respondents said they anticipate Tesla shares will be at least 11% higher by the end of the calendar year. Around 36% expect the stock to tumble another 11% or further by year-end, while 19% see the stock staying within 10% of its price around $220.

After a New York Times report last week unearthed criticisms of Musk’s team from members of Trump’s cabinet, the president offered a vote of confidence on Tuesday. Trump evaluated five Tesla vehicles parked at the White House after the president said on social media that he would buy one as a symbol of support.

Trump also said he would declare violence at Tesla dealerships to be acts of domestic terrorism.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The S&P 500 ($SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and DJIA ($INDU) are trading below their 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). It doesn’t paint an optimistic picture, but the reality is that the stock market’s price action is more unpredictable than usual.

When President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, the stock market sold off. However, the selloff eased in afternoon trading, when there was a narrative shift in the tariff and Ukraine/Russia tensions front. But that changed towards the end of Tuesday’s close, with the broader indexes closing lower.

Navigating a headline-driven market is challenging. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), the market’s fear gauge, eased a little on Tuesday, but has risen relatively steeply since February 21. All investors should monitor this closely, especially in a market that fluctuates several times on any given trading day.

Percentage Performance

It’s also important not to lose sight of the bigger picture. From a percentage performance point of view, how much damage has been done? To answer this question, it helps to view a PerfChart of the three broader indexes, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow (see chart below).

FIGURE 1. ONE-YEAR PERFORMANCE OF S&P500, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, AND NASDAQ COMPOSITE. All three indexes are displaying weakening performance, but are still in positive territory.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Over the last year, the performance of the three indexes is in positive territory. The Dow is the weakest of the three, with a 6.87% gain. During the April 2024 low, performance was negative, but during the August low, the Dow skirted the zero level but was able to hang on. Given the trend in the performance of all three indexes is pointing lower, investors should be cautious when it comes to making decisions.

Value Performance

The daily chart of any of the three indexes is bleak. The one that looks the bleakest is probably the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Tech stocks have taken a beating of late, and the Nasdaq has been trading below its 200-day SMA for a few days (see chart below).

The bottom panel displays the percentage of Nasdaq stocks trading below their 200-day SMA. As you can see, it’s below 30%, which indicates an oversold level. There are no signs of reversal on this chart. In August, when the Nasdaq slipped below its 200-day SMA, it quickly recovered.

On Wednesday morning, investors will be tuned in to the February CPI data. Be sure to save the PerfChart in Figure 1 and the chart of the Nasdaq Composite in Figure 2 to your ChartLists. Click on the charts to see the live chart. Monitor them closely, since we’re likely to see a seesawing stock market for a while.

Closing Position

Note that when viewing a PerfChart, you can also compare the performance of different sectors or industry groups in addition to the broader indexes. All you have to do is change the symbols on the chart. If you see confirmed signals of a reversal in any asset class or group, it may be time to reevaluate your portfolio allocations.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has announced a “strategic alliance” to fight organized crime with Erik Prince, the founder of the controversial private defense contractor formerly known as Blackwater.

Noboa, who launched a divisive military operation against criminal groups last year, posted a photo on X and Instagram showing him chatting with Prince at an office with an Ecuadorian flag in the background.

“We have established a strategic alliance to strengthen our capabilities in the fight against narcoterrorism and the protection of our waters from illegal fishing,” Noboa wrote on Tuesday. “There is no truce. There is no retreat. We are moving forward,” he added.

The president did not provide details on the partnership.

Noboa’s announcement has raised eyebrows in Ecuador. Former Army commander Luis Altamirano criticized the partnership, calling it “deplorable” that “they seek to hire the services of a mercenary army.”

“It’s truly deplorable that, under the guise of ‘international cooperation,’ they seek to hire the services of a mercenary army. In the end, the announced ‘special forces’ were a dubious private company. Is this announcement just another smokescreen?” the retired general said on X.

Prince, who is the brother of US President Donald Trump’s former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, founded Blackwater, which gained notoriety in 2007 during the Iraq War, when its private contractors opened fire in Baghdad’s Nisour Square, killing 17 Iraqi civilians.

Four contractors were convicted and later pardoned by Trump.

Following the massacre, the company changed its name and Prince sold the firm in 2010. He currently identifies himself on his website as an investor, entrepreneur and leader in military affair reforms.

Prince was a prominent Trump supporter during the 2016 campaign. He spent time around senior transition officials and informally advised the Trump White House on some major foreign policy decisions early in Trump’s first term.

Ecuador’s crime crackdown

In his post announcing the partnership with Prince, Ecuador’s president wrote: “Organized crime has sown fear and believed it can operate with impunity. Their time is up. International aid begins in Ecuador.”

In early 2024, Noboa launched a nationwide crackdown to stop an outburst of gang violence. But the president, who is seeking reelection this year, has insisted that his country needs foreign support to solve the security crisis driven by local criminal groups linked to international drug cartels.

Ecuador has the highest homicide rate in Latin America, with 38.8 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the most recent report from the organized crime research and analysis center InSight Crime. It is followed by Venezuela, Colombia, Honduras, and Brazil.

The Ecuadorian Ministry of the Interior says the start to the year has been the most violent in the country’s history, with more than 1,000 homicides.

The president said in a radio interview on Monday that Ecuador would receive international assistance and support in the coming days through “special forces abroad” that would arrive in the country to join the fight against organized crime.

Noboa did not specify where this new international support would come from, nor under what mechanisms foreign forces would operate in the country.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

It’s happening: Southwest Airlines will start charging passengers to check bags for the first time.

It’s a stunning reversal that shows the low-cost pioneer is willing to part with a customer perk executives have said set it apart from rivals in more than half a century of flying in hopes of increasing revenue.

Southwest’s changes come after months of pressure from activist Elliott Investment Management. The firm took a stake in the airline last year and won five board seats as it pushed for quick changes at the company, which held on for decades — until now — to perks such as free checked bags, changeable tickets and open seating.

For tickets purchased on or after May 28, Southwest customers in all but the top tier-fare class will have to pay to check bags, though there will be exceptions. Elite frequent flyers who hold “A-List Preferred” status will still get two bags and A-List level members will get one free checked bag. Southwest credit card holders will also get one free checked bag.

“Two bags fly free” is a registered trademark on Southwest’s website. But its decision to about-face on what executives long cast as a sacrosanct passenger perk brings the largest U.S. domestic carrier in line with its rivals, which together generated $5.5 billion from bag fees last year, according to federal data.

Southwest executives have long said they didn’t plan to charge for bags, telling Wall Street analysts that it was a major reason why customers chose the airline.

“After fare and schedule, bags fly free is cited as the No. 1 issue in terms of why customers choose Southwest,” CEO Bob Jordan said on an earnings call last July.

But Southwest has changed its tune.

“What’s changed is that we’ve come to realize that we need more revenue to cover our costs,” COO Andrew Watterson said in an interview with CNBC about the baggage fee changes. “We think that these changes that we’re announcing today will lead to less of that share shift than would have been the case otherwise.”

In September, Southwest’s then-chief transformation officer, Ryan Green, told analysts that its analysis showed Southwest would lose more money from passengers defecting to rivals if it started charging for bags than it would make from the fees.

“The fact that free bags is a key driver of choice creates the risk that customers may choose the competition if we change the policy,” he said.

Southwest said last month that it had parted ways with Green.

The airline also said Tuesday that it will launch a new, basic economy fare, something rivals have offered for years.

Southwest, in addition, will change the way customers earn Rapid Rewards: Customers will earn more of the frequent flyer miles depending on how much they pay. Redemption rates will vary depending on flight demand, a dynamic pricing model competitors use.

And flight credits for tickets for tickets purchased on or after May 28 will expire one year, or earlier, depending on the type of fare purchased.

It’s the latest in a string of massive strategy changes at Southwest as its performance has fallen behind rivals.

Last July, Southwest shocked passengers when it announced it would ditch its open seating model for assigned seats and add “premium” extra legroom options, ending decades of an single-class cabin.

The airline is also looking to slash its costs. Higher expenses coming out of the pandemic have taken a bite out of airline margins.

Last month, Southwest announced its first mass layoff, cutting about 1,750 jobs roughly 15% of its corporate staff, many of them at its headquarters, a decision CEO Jordan called “unprecedented” in the carrier’s more than 53 years of flying.

“We are at a pivotal moment as we transform Southwest Airlines into a leaner, faster, and more agile organization,” he said last month.

Earlier this year, Southwest announced the retirement of its longtime finance chief, Tammy Romo, who was replaced by Breeze executive Tom Doxey, and its chief administrative officer, Linda Rutherford. Both executives worked at Southwest for more than 30 years.

Southwest has also cut unprofitable routes, summer internships and employee teambuilding events its held for decades.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

“The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.”

How often have you heard this adage? More importantly, how often do you follow it?

Chasing stocks, whether it’s one that was texted to you as the next high-flying AI stock, a popular meme stock, or the next hot IPO, can be tempting. If you’re lucky, the price moves in your favor, you get elated, and you throw one heck of a party. Alas, the story doesn’t always end this way. The stock market can catch you off guard. It gives you several opportunities, but also unexpectedly robs them from you. This is especially true during an overextended market.

Any negative news headlines make investors nervous, leading them to make irrational decisions. To avoid falling into the trap of buying and selling stocks at the wrong time, take the smart approach and set some basic rules to follow.

Rule 1: Determine the Market’s Long-term Trend

You want to trade in the direction of the long-term trend—buy when the trend is up and sell when it is down. Buying stocks when the overall trend is declining can be like catching a falling knife, while selling stocks when the trend is rising could mean missing sizable moves. To determine the overall direction of the stock market’s long-term trend, look at a chart of a benchmark index, such as the S&P 500 ($SPX), that covers at least one year.

We’ll examine the weekly chart of the S&P 500 (see below). Overall, the index has trended higher for the last five years, but there have been pullbacks, some longer and more severe than others (pink shaded areas). The index is going through a pullback now, although we won’t know the magnitude of it until it’s over.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. Overall, the trend in the benchmark has been bullish, although there have been periods of declines and pullbacks. The index is going through a decline.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

From January 2022 to October 2022, the S&P 500 declined over 20%. Many Wall Street analysts expected the decline to continue, but the S&P 500 recovered, ending 2023 with a 26.3% gain and 2024 with a 23.31% gain. There were a few minor pullbacks along the way, some more pronounced than others (end of 2023 and July to August 2024).

Nobody knows what the market will do, but, when you see a pullback forming—and it looks like one is forming—don’t plan on opening long positions. If you’re not convinced the market is pulling back, view a daily chart of the S&P 500 to see if it aligns with the weekly chart’s trend. If both indicate a downtrend or the two don’t align, you need to dig deeper.

Rule 2: Is Market Breadth Expanding or Contracting?

Market breadth is an effective method to uncover the percentage of stocks participating in the uptrend. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is one of several breadth indicators available in StockCharts and is available for indexes, sectors, and industry groups.

The chart below displays the BPI for the S&P 500 in the upper panel ($BPSPX) against the daily chart of the S&P 500 in the lower panel. When the BPI is above 50%, it indicates the bulls have an edge. When it’s below 50%, the bears have an edge.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500 BULLISH PERCENT INDEX VS. S&P 500. Note the uptrends in the S&P 500 coincide with a BPI greater than 50. The downtrend in the S&P 500 coincides with an S&P 500 BPI of less than 50.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In the last year, besides the pullback periods in the S&P 500, the bulls have had the upper hand. If you wanted to invest in an S&P 500 stock when the bulls were in control, your first task is to find one that aligns with the bullish move.

Rule 3: Buy on Up Days, Sell on Down Days

Let’s focus on the period between August 9, 2024, and December 18, 2024, to coincide with the period when the BPI was greater than 50 and examine a hollow candlestick chart of Apple, Inc. (AAPL), one of the top cap-weighted stocks in the S&P 500.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF APPLE STOCK. From August 9 to December 18, 2024, which coincides with the S&P 500 BPI > 50, the stock price trended higher, displaying a series of hollow green candles at the front and tail end of the period.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Hollow candlestick charts are visually interesting and have the advantage of identifying a trend quickly. The upward movement began a few days before August 9, when there was a significant gap down in AAPL’s price. Even though it was a down day, the bar was hollow, which means the close was higher than the open.

Looking at all three charts, August 9 presented an opportune buy signal. It aligned with the bullish BPI and the long-term trend in the weekly and daily charts.

If you had hypothetically opened a long position, you could have exited your position on December 18, when the BPI turned bearish and made a decent return. You could have held on for a few more days, but the stock sold off quickly, so your exit would depend on how well your sell order got filled.

Regardless, you should have exited the position during the series of down days that started on December 27. If you hadn’t closed your position then and were still holding on to it, you would have been caught in the downward spiral that started when the S&P 500 BPI fell below 50 on February 27.


StockCharts Tip

Hollow candlestick charts differ from the traditional filled candlestick charts. To apply hollow candle charts, click the Hollow Candles button under Chart Attributes.


The Bottom Line

Given the erratic nature of the stock market, especially an over-extended one, a smart approach to investing requires following a set of rules. It doesn’t have to be complicated.

Identifying the long-term trend, checking the market’s breadth, and ensuring the trend of a stock you want to buy aligns with the overall market is a simple approach, but applying it successfully in real time takes practice. Practice applying the rules using a simulated account. There’s no better teacher than yourself.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

An elected leader once dubbed “The Punisher” is on his way to The Hague to face trial for crimes against humanity during a brutal war on drugs, in a breathtaking reversal of fortune for a politician who once openly boasted about killing people and placing opponents on hit lists.

Rodrigo Duterte ran the Philippines for six turbulent years, during which he oversaw a brutal crackdown on drugs, openly threatened critics with death and tongue-lashed a host of global leaders from the Pope to former US President Barack Obama.

A former prosecutor, congressman and mayor, Duterte built his no-holds-bared reputation in the southern Philippine city of Davao. He swept to the presidency in 2016 on a populist – and popular – promise to replicate the hardline tactics of his hometown and wage war against drugs and drug pushers across the Southeast Asian nation.

“All of you who are into drugs, you sons of b**ches, I will really kill you,” he told a huge crowd in one of his many characteristically profane-laced 2016 campaign speeches. “I have no patience, I have no middle ground. Either you kill me or I will kill you idiots.”

Once in power he unleashed what rights groups called “death squads” to eradicate drug pushers – many of the victims young men from impoverished shanty towns, shot by police and rogue gunmen as part of a campaign to target dealers.

Police data said 6,000 people were killed. Some rights groups say the death toll could be as high as 30,000 with innocents and bystanders often caught in the crossfire.

Duterte’s blood-soaked presidency ended in 2022. Three years later, only 8 policemen had been convicted for 5 of the victims killed in the war on drugs, according to court documents.

The ICC launched an investigation into allegations of “crimes against humanity” committed by Duterte during both his time as national leader and mayor of Davao.

Duterte has long denied the accusations of human rights abuses and contends the drug issue is one for domestic law enforcement. He has repeatedly said he will not kowtow to foreign jurisdiction and taunted the ICC, urging prosecutors to “hurry up” and move on him.

Two days before his arrest, he slammed the ICC in a typically fiery speech to supporters in Hong Kong.

“From my own news, I have a warrant…from the ICC or something… these motherf***ers have been chasing me for a long time. What did I do wrong ?” he said.

A sudden arrest

But the tide had suddenly turned. Authorities were waiting for Duterte to return from Hong Kong, and arrested him at the main airport in Manila, sparking chaotic scenes.

As the news filtered out, many were left in shock.

Some flocked to churches in the majority Catholic country to attend impromptu mass to commemorate the thousands of victims of his drug war, seeing the move as a first step towards overdue justice.

And just before midnight, Duterte was back on a plane – this time bound for the Netherlands what appeared to be a stunning end to stormy and violent stint at the top of Philippine politics.

Why now?

The arrest likely owes more to Duterte being on the wrong side of a feud between two of the Philippine’s most high-profile families than the might of the ICC, which cannot carry out arrests on its own and relies on the cooperation of national governments to execute warrants

Duterte’s clan was previously in an alliance with the famed Marcos political dynasty, with his daughter his daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio serving as deputy to current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

But in recent months the alliance collapsed, descending into public tirades and name-calling.

In October, Duterte-Carpio aired a litany of grievances against the president in a two-hour livestreamed press conference, saying she “wanted to chop his head off.”

Then she said in an online news conference on November 23 that she had contracted an assassin to kill Marcos, his wife and Romualdez if she were killed, a threat she warned wasn’t a joke.

Marcos had said the Philippines will “disengage” from any contact with the ICC, as Manila does not recognize its authority over matters of national sovereignty.

That’s because Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the court in 2019.

But under the ICC’s withdrawal mechanism, the court keeps jurisdiction over crimes committed during the membership period of a state.

But President Marcos said he was obliged to follow Interpol’s request to arrest Duterte.

“Interpol asked for help, and we obliged because we have commitments to the Interpol, which we have to fulfil. If we don’t do that, they will not, they will no longer help us with other cases involving Filipino fugitives abroad,” Marcos said in a late-night presser after the plane carrying Duterte took off.

What comes next?

Carlos Conde, a Philippines researcher for Human Rights Watch (HRW) Conde said Duterte’s swift arrest and removal was a “pleasant surprise” that caught also a lot of people off guard.

“But there is this mixed feeling of joy and hope and anxiety because we do not exactly know where this will end up to what will be the outcome. Will there really be accountability?” said Parong, who is also co-chair of the Philippine Coalition for the ICC (PCICC).

But she cautioned it would be an excruciatingly long road to justice.

“It is time consuming. It will take years before there will be a conviction at the International Criminal Court. The waiting is really difficult for the victims and the families of the victims of the bloody war on drugs.”

What is the ICC?

Located in The Hague in the Netherlands, the ICC investigates and prosecutes individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and crimes of aggression against the territory of its member states, of which there are 125.

Duterte’s arrest and transfer is a significant victory for the body. The court cannot carry out arrests on its own and relies on the cooperation of national governments to execute warrants – which often rests on domestic politics and political will on whether to follow through.

Many of those on its wanted list remain at large, unruffled by the serious charges laid against them.

The court has been rounded on by the United States for seeking the arrests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity for Israel’s military actions in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack.

The ICC simultaneously sought the arrests of top Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, who was later killed.

Neither the US nor Israel are members of the ICC.

The court has also issued a warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine, although it is unlikely the warrant will be served any time soon. Putin travelled to ICC member Mongolia last year, but was not arrested.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Three separate outages appeared to hit Elon Musk’s X social media site Monday as he claimed it was suffering a ‘massive cyberattack.’

Downdetector.com first registered thousands of reports of trouble accessing or using the site around 5:30 a.m. ET. It took about an hour before those issues subsided.

Then, around 9:30 a.m., the issues appeared to flare up again, with as many as 40,000 outage reports detected. It again took about an hour for that incident to dissipate.

Finally, around 11:10 a.m., the issues cropped up again, according to Downdetector.

A representative for X couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

Musk said Monday afternoon on X that there had been a ‘massive cyberattack’ against the site.

‘We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved,” he said. He didn’t post any evidence of a cyberattack.

Experts said the outage was consistent with a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, a rudimentary but sometimes effective hacker tactic to overwhelm a website with traffic, effectively knocking it offline.

Isik Mater, the director of research at NetBlocks, a company that tracks global internet connectivity, told NBC News that X had suffered intermittent outages since Monday morning. While establishing a DDoS attack with certainty can be difficult, Mater said, Musk’s claim was plausible.

“It’s difficult to be certain, but given the pattern of three observed outages, a denial [of] service attack targeting X’s infrastructure can’t be ruled out,” she said. “It’s certainly one of the longest X/Twitter outages in our records.”

Musk said in an interview Monday afternoon on Fox Business that the outage was due to “a massive cyberattack to try to bring down the X system with IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area,” a reference to internet protocol addresses. IP addresses, strings of numbers assigned to all internet-connected devices, include codes indicating their countries of origin.

Large DDoS attacks usually rely on large armies of hacked devices from around the world. The IP addresses of the devices used against X aren’t public, and they are unlikely to be a reliable indication of where the attacker was based.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Sector Shake-Up: Defensive Moves and Tech’s Tumble

Last week’s market volatility stirred up the sector rankings, with 6 out of 11 sectors changing positions. While the top three remain steady, we see a clear rotation from cyclical to more defensive sectors. Let’s dive into the details and see what the charts tell us.

The weekly sector ranking has undergone some significant changes. Communication Services (XLC) is holding firm. Financials (XLF) is maintaining position. Consumer discretionary remains steady, but is showing weakness. Consumer Staples (XLP) is the new entrant to the top 5, while Utilities (XLU) Holds its ground at #5.

The big story here is the rise of defensive sectors. Health Care (XLV) made a notable jump from 10th to 6th place, while Technology (XLK) took a nosedive from 4th to 10th. This shift is characteristic of the broader shift from cyclical to defensive plays.

The New Sector Lineup

  1. (1) Communication Services – (XLC)
  2. (2) Financials – (XLF)
  3. (3) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  4. (6) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  5. (5) Utilities – (XLU)
  6. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)*
  7. (9) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  8. (7) Industrials – (XLI)*
  9. (8) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (4) Technology – (XLK)*
  11. (11) Materials – (XLB)

Weekly RRG: A Tale of Two Sides

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), printed above, paints an interesting picture. We see only three sectors on the right-hand side of the graph, with the rest clustered on the left. But their movements are telling:

  • XLC is in the leading quadrant, moving northeast — a positive sign.
  • XLF has turned back up into the leading quadrant, reinforcing its #2 spot.
  • XLY is in the weakening quadrant with a long tail, heading towards lagging — a potential red flag.

On the left side:

  • XLK’s rotation is clearly weak, pushing further into the lagging quadrant.
  • Meanwhile, XLP and XLU show strength, moving with positive RRG headings in the improving quadrant.

Daily RRG: Confirming the Weekly Story

When we look at the daily RRG, we get some additional context:

  • XLC has curled up in the weakening quadrant, supporting its positive weekly rotation.
  • XLF is confirming its positive move in the leading quadrant.
  • XLY is the outlier — its short tail in the lagging quadrant doesn’t bode well for maintaining its #3 position.
  • XLP shows the strongest RS ratio reading on the daily chart, complementing its positive weekly movement.
  • XLU has lost some relative momentum over the last day, but nothing too concerning at this point.

The Top Five Charts

Communication Services – XLC

XLC is playing around with its old resistance line, now expected to act as support. Monday’s price action shows a slight revival, but it’s too early to call. The relative strength remains robust, with a clear series of higher highs and higher lows on the raw RS line.

Financials – XLF

XLF has broken its rising support line and completed a toppish formation. We’re now eyeing the next support level, around $47.25. Despite this, XLF’s relative performance remains strong, with both RRG lines moving higher.

Consumer Discretionary – XLY

After completing a top formation, XLY is now testing support around 200. It appears to be moving back into its old rising channel — and if my rule holds true, we might see it test the lower boundary. This suggests significant downside risk for the sector.

Consumer Staples – XLP

XLP, the newcomer to the top 5, is pushing against overhead resistance in the $83.50-84 area. A break here could give the sector a significant boost. The improvement in relative strength is already evident, pulling both RRG lines higher.

Utilities – XLU

XLU remains in a sideways pattern, potentially settling into a narrower range between $75.50 and $80.50.

Its relative strength is also range-bound but still pulling both RRG lines up — enough to keep it in the top 5.

Portfolio Performance Update

The technology position was exited and swapped for the consumer staples position against Monday’s opening prices.

As of about 45 minutes after opening, the portfolio performance stands at -3.19% since inception, compared to the SPY benchmark at -3.39%. We’re about 20 basis points ahead — not making a big dent, but keeping pace with the S&P 500 for now.

Going forward, I’ll be including both the performance table and the list of open positions in these articles for better tracking.

Summary

The market’s rotation towards defensive sectors is becoming increasingly evident. Consumer discretionary looks vulnerable, while consumer staples and utilities show strength.

#StayAlert, –Julius


All but one of the world’s top 20 most polluted cities last year were in Asia, a new study shows.

The majority of these cities – 13 – are in the world’s most populous country, India, where booming economic growth is fired largely by coal and where hundreds of millions live in traffic-clogged and congested megacities.

Another four are in neighboring Pakistan, with one in China and Kazakhstan respectively.

The only city outside of Asia featured on the list is N’Djamena, the capital of Chad in central Africa – which was named the country with the worst air pollution.

Meanwhile the cities with the worst pollution in North America were all in California.

The report by IQAir, a Swiss company that tracks global air quality, looked specifically at fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, one of the smallest but most dangerous pollutants.

PM2.5 comes from sources like the combustion of fossil fuels, dust storms and wildfires. It is so tiny – 1/20th of a width of a human hair – that it can travel past your body’s usual defenses into your lungs or bloodstream.

The particles cause irritation and inflammation and have been linked to respiratory problems and chronic kidney disease. Exposure can cause cancer, stroke or heart attacks and has been associated with a higher risk of depression and anxiety.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says average annual levels of PM2.5 should not exceed 5 micrograms per cubic meter.

Byrnihat, an industrial town in northeast India recorded a PM2.5 concentration of 128.2 last year – more than 25 times the WHO’s standard.

She blamed factories around the town and a booming construction industry and trees being felled as contributing to the toxic air.

“The pollution is particularly bad right now, visibility is not great, there is dust everywhere, my eyes also burn,” she said.

“I do not leave home without a mask.”

Twelve other cities in the top 20 are in India.

Its capital New Delhi featured as the world’s most polluted capital for the sixth consecutive year, with a PM2.5 concentration of 91.8. The report also listed six satellite cities – Faridabad, Loni, Delhi, Gurugram, Noida and Greater Noida – making the list.

Just last November, a throat-searing blanket of smog settled over Delhi, disrupting flights, blocking buildings from view and prompting the city’s chief minister to declare a “medical emergency.”

But overall, India – the world’s most populous nation with 1.4 billion people dropped from third to fifth place from the previous year, according to the report.

But the report said air pollution “remains a significant health burden… reducing life expectancy by an estimated 5.2 years.”

India’s neighbors Bangladesh and Pakistan – together home to some 400 million people – were second and third-most polluted countries globally in terms of PM2.5 molecules, according to the report.

China – which used to dominate global rankings of the world’s worst air – noted a small improvement, the report said.

Its national annual average PM2.5 concentration decreased from 32.5 micrograms per cubic meter to 31, with air quality improving in megacities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the report said.

China is the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter but in recent years has waged a campaign against air pollution, particularly in the cities that have fuelled its economic growth, and has pushed a massive expansion in solar and wind power.

But last month two clean-energy groups raised alarm over what they said were plans by China’s power industry to build nearly 100 gigawatts of new coal plant capacity last year, the most in nearly a decade.

All 20 of the world’s most polluted cities last year exceeded WHO PM2.5 guidelines by over 10 times, the IQ Air report showed.

Data gaps

“Air pollution remains a critical threat to both human health and environmental stability, yet vast populations remain unaware of their exposure levels,” said Frank Hammes, Global CEO of IQAir.

Iran and Afghanistan did not feature in this year’s report due to a lack of data availability.

Air quality monitoring in Southeast Asia is also a problem, with nearly all countries having “significant gaps in government-led initiatives,” the report found.

In 2024, 173 out of 392 cities in the region lacked government monitoring stations, while Cambodia had none, it said.

Those problems are likely to be exacerbated after the US announced earlier this month that it would stop sharing air quality data gathered from its embassies and consulates worldwide due to “funding constraints” the Associated Press reported.

“Air quality data saves lives,” said Hammes.

“It creates much needed awareness, informs policy decisions, guiding public health interventions, and empowers communities to take action to reduce air pollution and protect future generations.”

Worst cities in North America

Only 17% of 8,954 cities analyzed globally by IQAir recorded air quality which met WHO pollution guidelines, the report said.

The cities with the worst air pollution in North America were Ontario, Bloomington and Huntington Park – all in California, the report said.

Overall the United States saw a significant reduction in PM2.5 levels last year, with the annual average dropping 22% from 2023.

Northern America has long boasted vigorous air quality monitoring systems, contributing 56% of the total number of ground-based air quality monitoring stations included in the IQ Air report – helping scientists with their continued research on air quality and aiding policymakers to make decisions about public health.

Only 12 countries, regions, and territories recorded PM2.5 concentrations below the WHO guidelines, most of which were in the Latin America and Caribbean or Oceania region.

The report called on governments to dedicate funding for renewable energy projects and “strengthen emission limits for vehicles and industrial activities.”

Advice Suman wishes authorities in Byrnihat would take to save her city from appearing at the top of the most polluted list again next year.

“This is my birthplace. I am a local. I do not want to leave this area. We want the governments to do more, come together and work for us.”

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Struggling drugstore chain Walgreens is going private. 

The company on Thursday said it inked a deal with private equity firm Sycamore Partners that will take it off the public market for an equity value of around $10 billion.

Sycamore will pay $11.45 per share in cash for Walgreens. Shareholders could also receive up to $3 more per share in the future from sales of Walgreens’ primary-care businesses, including Village Medical, Summit Health and CityMD. Walgreens said the total value of the transaction would be up to $23.7 billion when including debt and possible payouts down the line.

Walgreens and Sycamore expect to close the take-private deal in the fourth quarter of this year. Shares of Walgreens jumped more than 5% in after-hours trading on Thursday before being halted.

The historic deal ends Walgreens’ tumultuous run as a public company, which began in 1927. As of Thursday morning, shares of the company were up more than 15% for 2025, but the stock was still down more than 48% for the last year and had fallen 70% for the past three years. 

“While we are making progress against our ambitious turnaround strategy, meaningful value creation will take time, focus and change that is better managed as a private company,” Walgreens CEO Tim Wentworth, who stepped into the role in 2023, said in a release on Thursday. “Sycamore will provide us with the expertise and experience of a partner with a strong track record of successful retail turnarounds.

Stefan Kaluzny, Sycamore’s managing director, said in the release the transaction reflects the firm’s confidence in Walgreens’ “pharmacy-led model and essential role in driving better outcomes for patients, customers and communities.”

Walgreens will maintain its headquarters in Chicago. The company currently has more than 310,000 employees globally and 12,500 retail pharmacy locations across the U.S., Europe and Latin America, according to the release. Walgreens still plans to release its second-quarter earnings on April 8.

Walgreens’s market value reached a peak of more than $100 billion in 2015 as investors gained confidence in its health-care business and expansion plans, making it one of the most prominent American retail companies. 

But the company’s market cap shrank to under $8 billion in late 2024 due to competition from its main rival CVS, grocery chains, big-box retailers and Amazon, along with a slew of challenges. Walgreens has been squeezed by the transition out of the Covid pandemic, pharmacy reimbursement headwinds, softer consumer spending and a troubled push into health care.

Both Walgreens and CVS have pivoted from years of store expansions to shuttering hundreds of retail pharmacy locations across the U.S. to shore up profits. But unlike CVS, which has diversified its business model by offering insurance and pharmacy benefits, Walgreens largely doubled down on its now-flailing retail pharmacy business. 

In October, Walgreens said it plans to close roughly 1,200 of its drugstores over the next three years, including 500 in fiscal 2025 alone. Walgreens has around 8,700 locations in the U.S., a quarter of which it says are unprofitable. The company has also scaled back its push into primary care by cutting its stake in provider VillageMD. 

Walgreens tapped health-care industry veteran Tim Wentworth as its new CEO in late 2023 to help regain its footing. 

The company has reportedly been seen as a potential private equity target in the past. 

In 2019, private equity firm KKR made a roughly $70 billion buyout offer to Walgreens, the Financial Times and Bloomberg reported at the time. 

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