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March 20, 2025

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In Stocks

Riding the Wave: What the Stock Market Rebound Means for Your Investments

3 Mins Read

Last week, tariff talks, recession fears, and waning consumer sentiment sent stocks lower. This week, the narrative may have shifted, as investors prepare for a macro-filled week and NVIDIA’s annual GTC developers’ conference.

Retail sales data for February came in slightly lower than expectations but better than January’s number. This, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant’s comments about the necessity of the economy undergoing a detox period, may have eased investor worries. All broader equity indexes closed higher on Monday, marking two solid up days in a row.

Next up, we have home prices and new home sales, an important measure of consumer health. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went through a steep downturn as did the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). Consumer spending is a major contributor to GDP growth which is why these two charts should be on every inverter’s radar. While both ETFs saw an upside swing on Monday, it’s not enough to change the trend (see chart below).

FIGURE 1. SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF AND SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF. Both saw a significant slide in value. The upside swing in the last price bar needs to see a lot more momentum and follow through and a confirmed trend reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Both ETFs (XHB in the top panel and XRT in the bottom panel) are trading below their 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Monday’s upside move is significant enough to alert investors that perhaps momentum is starting to change. It could be the start of a reversal, a short-term rally that resumes its downtrend, or the beginning of a sideways move. Regardless, it’s worth monitoring the sectors and specific industry groups to get an idea of the general investor sentiment. The StockCharts MarketCarpets can go a long way in giving a big-picture view of the overall market (see below).

FIGURE 2. IT’S MOSTLY A SEA OF GREEN EXCEPT FOR THE HEAVY-WEIGHT LARGE-CAP STOCKS. There was money flowing into the market, especially in the Real Estate, Energy, and Consumer Staples sectors. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Money flowed into the Real Estate, Energy, and Consumer Staples sectors, but all 11 S&P sectors closed in the green. The weakest performer was Consumer Discretionary—you can thank the slide in Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) for that.

All Ears on Fed

Perhaps the most important macro-event this week will be the FOMC meeting. Although an interest rate cut isn’t expected, there’s still uncertainty surrounding tariffs. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes the podium on Wednesday, investors will be listening for clues about economic growth and inflation expectations.

Bond prices are showing signs of rising. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which has been trending higher this year, closed modestly higher. Gold and major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether also closed higher.

The Bottom Line

While it’s encouraging to see the stock market show upside momentum after sliding lower for almost a month, take things one day at a time. If you have some cash sitting on the sidelines, be patient and wait for confirming signals of a trend reversal.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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In World news

Indonesia approves controversial law expanding role of military in government

2 Mins Read

Indonesia’s parliament on Thursday passed contentious revisions to the country’s military law, which will allocate more civilian posts for military officers, and street protests against the changes are expected to take place.

The revisions have been criticized by civil society groups, who say it could take the world’s third-biggest democracy back to the draconian “New Order” era of former strongman president Suharto, when military officers dominated civilian affairs.

Speaker Puan Maharani led the unanimous vote in a plenary council and officially passed the law, saying that it was in accordance with the principle of democracy and human rights.

President Prabowo Subianto, who took office last October and was a special forces commander under Suharto, has been expanding the armed forces’ role into what were considered civilian areas, including his flagship program of free meals for children.

Rights groups have criticized the increased military involvement because they fear it may lead to abuses of power, human rights violations, and impunity from consequences for actions.

The government has said the bill requires officers to resign from the military before assuming civilian posts at departments such as the Attorney’s General Office and a lawmaker has said officers could not join state-owned companies, to counter concerns the military would be involved in business.

Protesters from several democracy groups and students have said they will stage rallies in front of the parliamentary building in Jakarta.

Some students had camped at the back gate of parliamentary building since Wednesday evening, protesting the law and demanding the government pull out all military personnel from civilian jobs.

Police officers forced them to leave the building but they refused, one protestor who declined to be named told Reuters. There were just a few dozen protesters at the time the bill was passed by parliament.

Military personnel were called in for security in the parliamentary building to assist police.

“The geopolitical changes and global military technology require the military to transform … to face conventional and non conventional conflicts,” Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin told parliament, while defending the revised law.

“We will never disappoint the Indonesians in keeping our sovereignty,” he added, but did not specify what geopolitical challenges he was referring to.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

Amazon AI scammers duped investors out of millions with ‘passive income’ scheme, FTC alleges

4 Mins Read

The Federal Trade Commission is going after an e-commerce company that allegedly took millions of dollars from consumers as part of a “passive income” scheme, which spun up Amazon storefronts on their behalf and promised “insane returns” that were higher than the stock market.

The FTC said Tuesday it filed a lawsuit against the company, called Click Profit; its co-founders Craig Emslie and Patrick McGeoghean; and two other business associates. It also asked a judge to bar the parties from doing business temporarily.

The case is the latest example of the FTC cracking down on e-commerce “automation” services. These companies launch and manage online storefronts on behalf of clients, who pay money for the services and the promise of earning tens of thousands of dollars in “passive income.” The companies often make extravagant claims about potential earnings and the use of artificial intelligence technology to guarantee profits. Despite their assurances, consumers frequently end up losing money.

Click Profit, which also operated under the names FBALaunch, Automation Industries and PortfolioLaunch, promised investors they would “build you a massively profitable e-commerce store from the ground up” by selling products on Amazon, Walmart and TikTok, according to the FTC.

The company charged consumers between $45,000 to $75,000 for the initial investment, plus an additional $10,000 or more to pay for inventory, the FTC alleged in its complaint, which was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida. Click Profit took up to 35% of any profits from their customers’ stores, the complaint states.

The company claimed the business opportunity was “safe, secure and proven to generate wealth,” according to marketing materials referenced in the FTC’s complaint. They posted screenshots of purportedly successful Amazon storefronts, including one they claimed generated product sales of over $540,000 in one month.

Emslie often appeared in TikTok videos and other online ads to pitch prospective consumers. In one ad, he said that “the stock market, real estate or precious metals will never be able to offer you” the level of security offered through investing in Click Profit, according to the FTC’s complaint. Other TikTok videos show him appearing alongside an image of Warren Buffett while “fanning himself” with wads of cash, per the complaint.

Click Profit talked up its expertise by claiming it had product sourcing partnerships with legitimate brands, including Nike, Disney, Dell, Colgate and Marvel, the complaint alleges. It also claimed to have spent $5 million to build a “super computer” and other AI technologies to locate the “most profitable products,” claiming the super computer had generated “around $100 million in sales,” per the complaint.

The company even implied that investors’ online store could be bought out by venture capital firms connected with Click Profit “at a 3-6x multiple,” the FTC alleged.

“In reality, the highly touted AI technology and brand partnerships do not exist, and the promised earnings never materialize,” the FTC said in its complaint.

Amazon suspended or terminated about 95% of Click Profit’s stores after they violated Amazon’s seller policies, the FTC alleged. After accounting for Amazon’s fees, more than one-fifth of Click Profit’s stores on the platform earned no money at all, while another third earned less than $2,500 in gross lifetime sales, the FTC stated.

As a result, most consumers were unable to recoup their investments and “some are saddled with burdensome credit card debt and unsold products,” according to the FTC, which also said that Click Profit often refused to refund victims their investments and threatened them with legal action if they posted publicly about their experience.

One unnamed consumer mentioned in the lawsuit invested “his life’s savings” in Click Profit and was later terminated as a client “with nothing to show for his payments,” the complaint states. He posted a negative review online and was allegedly approached by Emslie’s attorney, who threatened to sue the consumer and “take everything he and his wife owned,” per the complaint.

The consumer took the reviews down, then asked Emslie whether he could receive a partial refund, according to the FTC.

“The attorney told the consumer that Emslie had responded, ‘F*** off,’” the FTC alleged.

Representatives for Emslie and Click Profit didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The FTC alleges Click Profit violated the FTC Act, the Consumer Review Fairness Act and the Business Opportunity Rule. It seeks to permanently prohibit Click Profit from doing business, as well as monetary relief for the victims.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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