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March 13, 2025

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The S&P 500 ($SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and DJIA ($INDU) are trading below their 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). It doesn’t paint an optimistic picture, but the reality is that the stock market’s price action is more unpredictable than usual.

When President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, the stock market sold off. However, the selloff eased in afternoon trading, when there was a narrative shift in the tariff and Ukraine/Russia tensions front. But that changed towards the end of Tuesday’s close, with the broader indexes closing lower.

Navigating a headline-driven market is challenging. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), the market’s fear gauge, eased a little on Tuesday, but has risen relatively steeply since February 21. All investors should monitor this closely, especially in a market that fluctuates several times on any given trading day.

Percentage Performance

It’s also important not to lose sight of the bigger picture. From a percentage performance point of view, how much damage has been done? To answer this question, it helps to view a PerfChart of the three broader indexes, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow (see chart below).

FIGURE 1. ONE-YEAR PERFORMANCE OF S&P500, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, AND NASDAQ COMPOSITE. All three indexes are displaying weakening performance, but are still in positive territory.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Over the last year, the performance of the three indexes is in positive territory. The Dow is the weakest of the three, with a 6.87% gain. During the April 2024 low, performance was negative, but during the August low, the Dow skirted the zero level but was able to hang on. Given the trend in the performance of all three indexes is pointing lower, investors should be cautious when it comes to making decisions.

Value Performance

The daily chart of any of the three indexes is bleak. The one that looks the bleakest is probably the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Tech stocks have taken a beating of late, and the Nasdaq has been trading below its 200-day SMA for a few days (see chart below).

The bottom panel displays the percentage of Nasdaq stocks trading below their 200-day SMA. As you can see, it’s below 30%, which indicates an oversold level. There are no signs of reversal on this chart. In August, when the Nasdaq slipped below its 200-day SMA, it quickly recovered.

On Wednesday morning, investors will be tuned in to the February CPI data. Be sure to save the PerfChart in Figure 1 and the chart of the Nasdaq Composite in Figure 2 to your ChartLists. Click on the charts to see the live chart. Monitor them closely, since we’re likely to see a seesawing stock market for a while.

Closing Position

Note that when viewing a PerfChart, you can also compare the performance of different sectors or industry groups in addition to the broader indexes. All you have to do is change the symbols on the chart. If you see confirmed signals of a reversal in any asset class or group, it may be time to reevaluate your portfolio allocations.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has announced a “strategic alliance” to fight organized crime with Erik Prince, the founder of the controversial private defense contractor formerly known as Blackwater.

Noboa, who launched a divisive military operation against criminal groups last year, posted a photo on X and Instagram showing him chatting with Prince at an office with an Ecuadorian flag in the background.

“We have established a strategic alliance to strengthen our capabilities in the fight against narcoterrorism and the protection of our waters from illegal fishing,” Noboa wrote on Tuesday. “There is no truce. There is no retreat. We are moving forward,” he added.

The president did not provide details on the partnership.

Noboa’s announcement has raised eyebrows in Ecuador. Former Army commander Luis Altamirano criticized the partnership, calling it “deplorable” that “they seek to hire the services of a mercenary army.”

“It’s truly deplorable that, under the guise of ‘international cooperation,’ they seek to hire the services of a mercenary army. In the end, the announced ‘special forces’ were a dubious private company. Is this announcement just another smokescreen?” the retired general said on X.

Prince, who is the brother of US President Donald Trump’s former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, founded Blackwater, which gained notoriety in 2007 during the Iraq War, when its private contractors opened fire in Baghdad’s Nisour Square, killing 17 Iraqi civilians.

Four contractors were convicted and later pardoned by Trump.

Following the massacre, the company changed its name and Prince sold the firm in 2010. He currently identifies himself on his website as an investor, entrepreneur and leader in military affair reforms.

Prince was a prominent Trump supporter during the 2016 campaign. He spent time around senior transition officials and informally advised the Trump White House on some major foreign policy decisions early in Trump’s first term.

Ecuador’s crime crackdown

In his post announcing the partnership with Prince, Ecuador’s president wrote: “Organized crime has sown fear and believed it can operate with impunity. Their time is up. International aid begins in Ecuador.”

In early 2024, Noboa launched a nationwide crackdown to stop an outburst of gang violence. But the president, who is seeking reelection this year, has insisted that his country needs foreign support to solve the security crisis driven by local criminal groups linked to international drug cartels.

Ecuador has the highest homicide rate in Latin America, with 38.8 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the most recent report from the organized crime research and analysis center InSight Crime. It is followed by Venezuela, Colombia, Honduras, and Brazil.

The Ecuadorian Ministry of the Interior says the start to the year has been the most violent in the country’s history, with more than 1,000 homicides.

The president said in a radio interview on Monday that Ecuador would receive international assistance and support in the coming days through “special forces abroad” that would arrive in the country to join the fight against organized crime.

Noboa did not specify where this new international support would come from, nor under what mechanisms foreign forces would operate in the country.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

It’s happening: Southwest Airlines will start charging passengers to check bags for the first time.

It’s a stunning reversal that shows the low-cost pioneer is willing to part with a customer perk executives have said set it apart from rivals in more than half a century of flying in hopes of increasing revenue.

Southwest’s changes come after months of pressure from activist Elliott Investment Management. The firm took a stake in the airline last year and won five board seats as it pushed for quick changes at the company, which held on for decades — until now — to perks such as free checked bags, changeable tickets and open seating.

For tickets purchased on or after May 28, Southwest customers in all but the top tier-fare class will have to pay to check bags, though there will be exceptions. Elite frequent flyers who hold “A-List Preferred” status will still get two bags and A-List level members will get one free checked bag. Southwest credit card holders will also get one free checked bag.

“Two bags fly free” is a registered trademark on Southwest’s website. But its decision to about-face on what executives long cast as a sacrosanct passenger perk brings the largest U.S. domestic carrier in line with its rivals, which together generated $5.5 billion from bag fees last year, according to federal data.

Southwest executives have long said they didn’t plan to charge for bags, telling Wall Street analysts that it was a major reason why customers chose the airline.

“After fare and schedule, bags fly free is cited as the No. 1 issue in terms of why customers choose Southwest,” CEO Bob Jordan said on an earnings call last July.

But Southwest has changed its tune.

“What’s changed is that we’ve come to realize that we need more revenue to cover our costs,” COO Andrew Watterson said in an interview with CNBC about the baggage fee changes. “We think that these changes that we’re announcing today will lead to less of that share shift than would have been the case otherwise.”

In September, Southwest’s then-chief transformation officer, Ryan Green, told analysts that its analysis showed Southwest would lose more money from passengers defecting to rivals if it started charging for bags than it would make from the fees.

“The fact that free bags is a key driver of choice creates the risk that customers may choose the competition if we change the policy,” he said.

Southwest said last month that it had parted ways with Green.

The airline also said Tuesday that it will launch a new, basic economy fare, something rivals have offered for years.

Southwest, in addition, will change the way customers earn Rapid Rewards: Customers will earn more of the frequent flyer miles depending on how much they pay. Redemption rates will vary depending on flight demand, a dynamic pricing model competitors use.

And flight credits for tickets for tickets purchased on or after May 28 will expire one year, or earlier, depending on the type of fare purchased.

It’s the latest in a string of massive strategy changes at Southwest as its performance has fallen behind rivals.

Last July, Southwest shocked passengers when it announced it would ditch its open seating model for assigned seats and add “premium” extra legroom options, ending decades of an single-class cabin.

The airline is also looking to slash its costs. Higher expenses coming out of the pandemic have taken a bite out of airline margins.

Last month, Southwest announced its first mass layoff, cutting about 1,750 jobs roughly 15% of its corporate staff, many of them at its headquarters, a decision CEO Jordan called “unprecedented” in the carrier’s more than 53 years of flying.

“We are at a pivotal moment as we transform Southwest Airlines into a leaner, faster, and more agile organization,” he said last month.

Earlier this year, Southwest announced the retirement of its longtime finance chief, Tammy Romo, who was replaced by Breeze executive Tom Doxey, and its chief administrative officer, Linda Rutherford. Both executives worked at Southwest for more than 30 years.

Southwest has also cut unprofitable routes, summer internships and employee teambuilding events its held for decades.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS