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February 2025

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The Finance sector is leading the market with a new high this week and the Bank SPDR (KBE) is extending on its breakout. Today’s report will outline the lessons of the early January setup and show the mid January breakout. We then show how to set a re-evaluation level that would prove the breakout wrong.

Let’s first review the setup from mid January. The chart below shows KBE hitting a new high in late November and then falling into mid January. The new high affirms a long-term uptrend and KBE remained well above the rising 200-day SMA. Thus, this decline was viewed as a correction within a long-term uptrend. During such pullbacks, I look for Bullish Setup Zones using retracement levels, prior resistance breaks and support levels. These are zones to watch for firming and a reversal.

Three items mark the Bullish Setup Zone on the chart above (see 1, 2 and 3). First, corrections within uptrends typically retraced 1/3 to 2/3 with 1/2 (50%) being the base case. A 50% retracement represents one step backward after two steps forward. Second, a key tenet of technical analysis is that broken resistance levels turn into support. KBE broke resistance around 55 and this area turns into future support. Third, KBE held the 53 area with two bounces in late October and early November (support). Taken together, the 50% retracement, broken resistance and support mark a Bullish Setup Zone in the 53-55 area (blue shading).

The strategy at TrendInvestorPro is to find and trade pullbacks within leading uptrends. Each week we bring you setups in ETFs and stocks. Click here to take a trial and learn more.

Once prices reach the Bullish Setup Zone, it is time to start drawing patterns and marking resistance levels. KBE formed a falling wedge and established short-term resistance with the January 6th high (pink line). Note that falling wedge patterns are typical for corrections within bigger uptrends. KBE broke out with a gap-surge in mid January and extended higher into February. The indicator window shows the price-relative (KBE/RSP ratio) turning up with a relative breakout. KBE is also leading again.

With an active breakout and extension higher, it is time to mark a re-evaluation level. This is the level that negates the wedge breakout and tells us something is wrong. Strong breakouts should hold so a failed breakout shows weakness. The breakout zone in the 55-56.5 area turns into first support (blue shading). A close below 55 would negate this breakout and call for a re-evaluation.

The strategy at TrendInvestorPro is to find and trade pullbacks within leading uptrends. Each week we define the market regime (bull or bear market), identify the leading groups using ETFs and highlight tradeable setups in stocks and ETFs. This week we featured the three biotech ETFs, two biotech stocks, a Mag7 stock and an industrial stock. Click here to take a trial and gain full access.

Trudeau’s comments, first reported by the Toronto Star, were picked up on an open microphone when Trudeau believed the media had been escorted out.

“Mr. Trump has it in mind that the easiest way to do it is absorbing our country and it is a real thing. In my conversations with him on…,” Trudeau said, according to audio from the Canada-US Economic Summit in Toronto shared by CBC News, before the microphone cut out.

Trudeau made the comments after delivering an opening address at the summit, and after journalists had left the room, CBC reported.

He added that Canada becoming another US state was “not going to happen.”

Trump followed through with his threats to impose tariffs on Canada last week, announcing a new 25% duty on most Canadian goods imported into the US. However, after Trudeau made commitments to bolster security at Canada’s border, Trump announced Monday a pause on the proposed tariffs for at least a month.

After a call with Trump, Trudeau said Canada would be implementing its previously announced $1.3 billion border plan, as well as committing to appointing a “fentanyl czar” and listing cartels as terrorists.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

OpenAI said on Thursday that the company is considering building data center campuses in 16 states that have indicated “real interest” in the project, which is linked to President Donald Trump’s Stargate plans.

On a call with reporters, OpenAI executives said it sent out a request for proposals (RFP) to states less than a week ago.

“A project of this size represents an opportunity to both re-industrialize parts of the country, but also to help revitalize where the American Dream is going to go in this intelligence age,” Chris Lehane, OpenAI’s vice president of global policy, said on the call.

Shortly after his inauguration last month, President Trump introduced Stargate, a joint venture between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank to bolster U.S. artificial intelligence infrastructure. Key initial technology partners will include Microsoft, Nvidia and Oracle, as well as semiconductor company Arm. They said they would invest $100 billion to start and up to $500 billion over the next four years.

The 16 states OpenAI is currently considering are Arizona, California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

Construction on the data centers in Abilene, Texas, is currently underway. In the coming months, OpenAI will begin announcing additional construction sites “on a rolling basis,” according to the presentation. Each campus is designed to support about one gigawatt of power or more.

OpenAI is aiming to build five to 10 data center campuses total, although executives said that number could rise or fall depending on how much power each campus offers.

The company also said it expects each data center campus to generate thousands of jobs. That includes construction and operational roles. But Stargate’s first data center in Abilene could lead to the creation of just 57 jobs, according to recent reports.

When OpenAI executives were asked how much electricity and water the data centers are expected to consume and how many workers they will employ, Keith Heyde, director of infrastructure strategy and deployment, said there were some sites where the company may look to partner with a utility and help develop other power-generation methods.

Heyde also said the company is looking into a “light water-footprint design.” Lehane declined to offer specifics about water usage.

Large-scale data centers have sparked controversy in recent years for their staggering environmental costs. The facilities consume a much as 50 times more energy per square foot than an average commercial office building, according to Energy.gov, and they’re responsible for approximately 2% of total U.S. electricity use.

In 2022, Google said that the average Google data center the prior year consumed approximately 450,000 gallons of water per day for server cooling. At least one data center it built could use between one and four million gallons of water per day, Time reported.

But the pressure to advance AI in the U.S. is picking up due to the speedy pace of development in China.

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup lab, saw its app soar to the top of Apple’s App Store rankings after its debut and roiled U.S. markets early last week on reports that its powerful model was trained at a fraction of the cost of U.S. competitors.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has praised DeepSeek’s model publicly, calling it “clearly a great model” at an event last week.

“This is a reminder of the level of competition and the need for democratic Al to win,” Altman said at the event, adding that it points to the “level of interest in reasoning, the level of interest in open source.”

Lehane said it’s all adding urgency to efforts in the U.S.

“Right now, there’s really only two countries in the world that can build this AI at scale,” Lehane said on Thursday. “One is the CCP-led China, and the other is the United States, and so that’s sort of the context that we’re operating in. Up until relatively recently, there was a real sense that the U.S. had a material lead on the CCP.”

He added that reports surrounding DeepSeek made “really clear that this is a very real competition, and the stakes could not be bigger. Whoever ends up prevailing in this competition is going to really shape what the world looks like going forward.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Ukraine’s air force got a boost in its fight against Russia on Thursday with the arrival of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from France, along with F-16s from the Netherlands.

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed the transfer of the Mirage jets in a post on X, adding the fighters were flown by Ukrainian pilots who have been training for months in France. French President Emmanuel Macron had promised the Mirage jets to Ukraine last summer.

“The Ukrainian sky is becoming more secure!” Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in a post on Facebook.

Welcoming the arrival of “the first French Mirage 2000 fighter jets and F-16s from the Kingdom of the Netherlands,” Umerov said: “These modern combat aircraft have already arrived in Ukraine and will soon begin carrying out combat missions, strengthening our defense and enhancing our ability to effectively counter Russian aggression.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Macron on Thursday for “his leadership and support.”

“France’s president keeps his word, and we appreciate it,” Zelensky said in a post on X.

The new fighters are expected to boost Ukrainian forces’ ability to provide air cover for troops, attack ground targets, take on enemy planes, and intercept missiles.

The latter role could be vital. Russia has stepped up missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, often sending dozens in one night, taxing Ukraine’s air defense batteries.

Last weekend, a Russian strike on a residential building in central Ukraine killed at least 14 people, emergency services said.

In January, the Ukrainian Air Force reported in a Facebook post that one of its F-16 pilots had destroyed six Russian missiles in one night in December.

Military aviation analyst Peter Layton at the Griffith Asia Institute said the Mirages might be best suited for the air defense role, freeing up the F-16s for other missions.

Mirages can get airborne more quickly than an F-16, Layton said.

“I would have the (Mirages) standing ground alert and able to take off within a few minutes to intercept incoming cruise missiles (primary targets) and Shahed drones (secondary targets),” Layton said.

Mirages could also be used to launch longer-range missiles such as the SCALP, also known as the Storm Shadow, at targets well inside Russia, said Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer.

Ukraine’s air fleet

Ukraine needs all the help it can get in its nearly three-year long war, triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion of its neighbor.

There has been no let-up in the fighting, even with US President Donald Trump having promised to reach a ceasefire quickly with his return to the White House last month.

Ukraine’s army continues to be pushed back on the eastern front lines, in the face of superior Russian manpower and resources.

Thursday’s announcements did not specify the number of fighter jets transferred from the two NATO allies to Ukraine, but the country has to date had few Western warplanes in its fleet.

Ukraine received its first F-16s last summer, with Zelensky at the time thanking the Netherlands, Denmark and the United States – where the F-16s are built – for the aircraft, without saying how many were delivered.

Reports since indicate two F-16s have been lost. A list of the world’s combat aircraft from Flight Global shows two F-16s in Ukraine’s fleet as of the beginning of this year, with 58 on order.

France had 26 Mirage 2000-5s active in its air force at the beginning of 2025, according to Flight Global. The aircraft are the oldest jets in France’s fleet and are slated to be replaced by Rafale jets in the coming years. It is not known how many will be transferred to Ukraine.

Leighton said current estimates show Ukraine getting a total of 95 F-16s and around two dozen Mirages.

“Neither airframe will be made available to Ukraine in sufficient numbers to provide the air combat capabilities Ukraine needs at this stage in its war with Russia,” he added. “In ideal circumstances, the Ukrainian Air Force should have around 200 – 220 fighter jets at its disposal.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

President Donald Trump and his supporters have heralded his use of tariff threats to extract concessions on drug trafficking and border security from Canada and Mexico. 

Yet, experts say, some of the measures agreed to by America’s two largest trading partners and close allies are less substantial than what has been trumpeted. 

Trump announced the 25% tariffs on the two countries Saturday, with the expectation they would take effect Tuesday. By Monday, he said that he had reached an agreement with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to deploy 10,000 of her country’s national guard officers to the U.S. border to stem the flow of migrants and drugs into the U.S. Sheinbaum said she had agreed to establish a bilateral “working group” with the Trump administration that would tackle security, migration and trade.

The same day, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he had agreed to beef up border and drug enforcement, as well as appoint a new “fentanyl czar” and designate cartels as terrorist organizations.  

In return, Trump promised to suspend the tariffs on both countries for 30 days. 

“As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that. I am very pleased with this initial outcome,” Trump said on social media. According to The Associated Press, the White House sent out an email that saw 68 Republican lawmakers praising the confrontation.

For Mexico, it was not clear whether the 10,000 troops represented a fresh call-up. The Associated Press reported it appeared the soldiers were merely being shifted from other parts of the country. 

While Trump has praised Sheinbaum on social media, if he decides he is not seeing results from an additional troop deployment, “get ready for a trade war,” said John Feeley, a career diplomat and former U.S. deputy chief of mission in Mexico.

Crossings at the southern border had already begun to plummet in the final months of the Biden administration, reaching fewer than 100,000 per month for the first time since at least 2022. Interdictions of fentanyl have also fallen sharply in recent months.

Although deaths attributed to fentanyl overdoses declined for the first time in five years in 2023, they still totaled more than 100,000 that year, the most recent for which data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is available.

But Trump is looking for headlines, Feeley said, and is unlikely to be persuaded by data showing reductions in migrant and drug flows that were already trending down before he took office.

“You’re mistaken if you think there’s a metric of success for Trump,” Feeley said, referring to quantitative sources of data. “He’s not reading spreadsheets or DEA reports. He’s looking at headlines and social media retweets.”

The Trump administration has faced a blitz of calls from U.S. manufacturers that rely on Mexican imports, especially automakers, The Wall Street Journal reported. Kevin Hassett, Trump’s National Economic Council director, appeared on CNBC on Monday to issue an assurance that the negotiations with Mexico and Canada were about a “drug war” and not a “trade war.” 

A similar situation may be playing out with some of the concessions announced from America’s northern neighbor. While Trump said Canada had agreed to take a more aggressive posture on its U.S. border in exchange for a suspension of tariffs, Canada’s parliament had already passed a new border security and drug interdiction bill in December. Trudeau also agreed to appoint a border czar and designate drug cartels as terrorist groups.    

“This whole thing is strange to me,” said Laurie Trautman, director of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University. While there is drug activity on the Canadian border, it is much more limited in scope compared with Mexico, she said — with fentanyl comprising a smaller percentage of drug flows (43 pounds was seized there last year, according to Drug Enforcement Administration data, compared with 21,100 pounds at the southern border). 

According to the DEA, 1 kilogram (roughly 2.2 pounds) of fentanyl has the potential to kill 500,000 people.

“It’s not as if we don’t have issues — there are illicit flows,” she said, “but comparing between the two borders is an exercise in futility.”

On Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had been “astoundingly clear” about his rationale for the tariffs.

“The illegal surge of deadly drugs and of human beings that we have seen trafficked over the southern border and northern border,” Leavitt said. “The president is making it very clear to both Canada and Mexico that the United States is no longer going to be a dumping ground for illegal deadly drugs and illegal human beings.”

Trump has also cited drug flows as a reason to impose additional 10% tariffs on China, despite that country posing a host of other security threats to the U.S. On Tuesday, China announced a set of retaliatory measures on U.S. goods and interests, including levies of up to 15% and an antitrust probe into Google — though, for now, analysts have noted many of these measures appear to be largely symbolic, citing the marginal levels of the specific U.S. goods so far singled out by the Chinese levies, as well as Google’s insubstantial presence there.  

Trump has signaled that his approach to negotiations is to keep friends and foes alike off balance. While markets became used to dismissing his threats during his first administration, this time may be different, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.  

“The outlook feels more uncertain and, even with the [tariffs] delay, we think the risks have tilted toward higher tariffs than we had previously assumed,” they wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. “The challenge is that creating uncertainty is likely part of President Trump’s strategy.

In an October interview with the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, the then-candidate was asked whether he would use military force if China invaded Taiwan.

“I wouldn’t have to, because [Chinese President Xi Jinping] respects me and he knows I’m f—–g crazy,” Trump responded. 

Yet, the paper’s right-leaning editorial board said this week that the president “blink[ed]” as he brokered truces with Canada and Mexico that were “much less … than meets the eye.” 

Whatever concessions Trump may have won, the board said, have likely come at the cost of greater uncertainty — one of investors’ and economists’ least-favorite trends. 

“Mr. Trump’s weekend tariff broadside against a pair of neighbors has opened a new era of economic policy uncertainty that won’t calm down until the President does,” the board said. “As we warned many times before Election Day, this is the biggest economic risk of Donald Trump’s second term.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe presents a trading strategy using the simple moving average. Explaining what to watch and how it can tell you what timeframe to trade, he shares how to use it in multiple timeframes. Joe covers the QQQ and IWM and explains the levels to monitor in both indices. Finally, he goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including KR, IBM, and more.

This video was originally published on February 5, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Nearly 3,000 people have been killed in the city of Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the United Nations, after it was captured by rebels following days of fierce fighting with the Congolese army.

Vivian van de Perre, deputy head of the UN mission in DR Congo, said Wednesday that “so far 2,000 bodies have been collected from the Goma streets in recent days, and 900 bodies remain in the morgues of the Goma hospitals.”

“We expect this number to go up,” she told reporters in a video call from the city, which is home to about 2 million people. “There are still many decomposing bodies in certain areas.”

The retrieval of the bodies comes after the rebel coalition, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) – which includes the M23 armed group – announced a ceasefire from Tuesday “in response to the humanitarian crisis caused by the Kinshasa regime,” referring to DR Congo’s government.

The government on Tuesday described the ceasefire as “false communication,” and heavy fighting has continued to be reported in South Kivu province, the UN said Wednesday.

DR Congo – a country of more than 100 million people – has experienced decades of violence driven by ethnic tensions and fights over access to land and mineral resources, causing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises.

Congo, the United States and UN experts accuse neighboring Rwanda of backing M23, which is mainly made up of ethnic Tutsis who broke away from the Congolese army more than a decade ago.

Since 2022, M23 – which claims to defend the interests of minority communities including the Tutsi – has waged a renewed rebellion against the Congolese government, occupying a large expanse in North Kivu, which borders Rwanda and Uganda.

The province, of which Goma is the capital, is home to rare minerals – including vast deposits of coltan – which is crucial to the production of phones and computers.

Heavy fighting reported

Van de Perre said Wednesday that while the UN hoped the ceasefire would hold, “it appears that is not the case,” with ongoing fighting reported along a main road toward the South Kivu capital of Bukavu.

“In Bukavu, tensions are rising as the M23 moves closer, just 50km north of the city,” Van de Perre told reporters, calling the situation in South Kivu province “particularly concerning.”

Rebel groups appear to continue gaining ground in the mineral-rich eastern region, capturing a town 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Bukavu, the Associated Press reported Wednesday, citing civil society officials and residents.

Van de Perre said the UN is “gravely concerned” at losing Bukavu’s Kavumu airport, which she said is “critical for ongoing civilian and humanitarian use around South Kivu.”

The rebel alliance has emphasized previously it has “no intention of capturing Bukavu or other areas,” where many displaced people from Goma have fled. “However, we reiterate our commitment to protecting and defending the civilian population and our positions,” it said.

Rebels have made a string of territorial acquisitions in recent weeks in the nation’s east and the group’s leader has expressed the intention of capturing more cities, including the national capital Kinshasa.

Kinshasa lies around 930 miles (1,500 kilometers) away from Goma, on the vast country’s western edge.

“We are going to fight until we get to Kinshasa. We have come to Goma to stay; we are not going to withdraw. We are going to move forward from Goma to Bukavu … up to Kinshasa,” he said.

In Goma, Van de Perre said the rebel group is consolidating control over the city and territories of North Kivu that it has already seized.

The Congolese government has not confirmed the rebels’ takeover but acknowledged their presence in Goma. Last week, a new military governor was appointed for North Kivu, which was described by the Congolese military as being “under a state of siege.”

“We remain under occupation (in Goma). The situation is still highly volatile with a persistent risk of escalation,” Van de Perre said Wednesday. “All exit routes from Goma are under their control and the airport, also under M23 control, is closed until further notice.”

“The escalating violence has led to immense human suffering, displacement and a growing humanitarian crisis,” Van de Perre said.

Nearly 2,000 civilians are sheltering at UN peacekeeping bases in Goma, she said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Boeing has lost more than $2 billion and counting on its Starliner spacecraft after a rough year in which the capsule’s first astronaut flight turned into a headache for NASA.

The Starliner program reported charges of $523 million for 2024 — its largest single-year loss to date — Boeing reported in a filing on Monday. The company noted that Starliner is under a fixed-price contract from NASA, so “there is ongoing risk that similar losses may have to be recognized in future periods.”

Since 2014, when NASA awarded Boeing with a nearly $5 billion fixed-price contract to develop Starliner, the company has recorded losses on the program almost every year.

Boeing’s program competes with Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which has flown 10 crew missions for NASA and counting on its Dragon capsules.

Last summer, Boeing’s first crew flight went awry after part of the capsule’s propulsion system malfunctioned. While Starliner delivered astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the International Space Station, NASA made the decision to bring Starliner back empty and use SpaceX to return the crew early this year — an agency choice that recently became politicized.

Neither Boeing nor NASA have provided details on how or when they plan to resolve the Starliner propulsion issue.

Boeing last week confirmed that Starliner Vice President Mark Nappi was leaving his role, Reuters reported, with the company’s ISS program manager John Mulholland named as his replacement. Mullholland previously led the Starliner program from 2011 to 2020.

Nearly four months ago, NASA said it was keeping “windows of opportunity for a potential Starliner flight in 2025,” but scheduled SpaceX to fly both its crews on missions launching in spring and late summer. NASA then specified that “the timing and configuration of Starliner’s next flight will be determined once a better understanding of Boeing’s path to system certification is established.”

The agency has not given an update on Starliner since making those comments in October.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Monday’s market opening was a doozy, with all three indices down nearly 2% in overnight trading. This was in response to President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China. Eventually, the indices were able to stem their losses as Trump paused the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, a strategic move aimed at pressuring trade negotiations.

Before the markets stabilized, however, I ran a few scans to identify stocks bucking the trend, looking for resilience amid fears of escalating trade tensions. Using StockCharts’ MarketCarpets, I quickly zoomed in on the Consumer Staples sector—one of the most tariff-sensitive areas likely to impact consumers.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS 1-DAY VIEW OF CONSUMER STAPLES.  Walmart and Costco were among the top-gaining stocks in the sector. While both are exposed to tariff pressures, their positioning and scale allow them to mitigate the impact differently.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Following this, I chose to run a scan for Outperforming SPY: 52-Week Relative Highs to identify top-gaining stocks in the Consumer Staples sector.

FIGURE 2. SCAN RESULTS FOR OUTPERFORMING SPY: 52-WEEK RELATIVE HIGHS.  Three big grocery stocks came up—COST, WMT, and SFM.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Here’s where it gets interesting:

Costco (COST) benefits from a loyal membership base, bulk discounts, and strong private label offerings, helping it absorb tariff-related costs. Its diversified supply chain and purchasing power further mitigate exposure.

Walmart (WMT) enjoys similar economies of scale and private label advantages, but if consumers trade down or cut discretionary spending, margin pressures could weigh on revenues.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) sources some products locally but relies heavily on Mexican imports. If rising prices make customers more price-sensitive, they may shift to larger chains like Walmart or Costco. Among the three, SFM is most at risk in the event of a prolonged trade war with our local neighbors.

Let’s take a one-year look back using the StockCharts PerfCharts and see how these stocks performed relative to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), a sector proxy, and the S&P 500 ($SPX).

FIGURE 3. PERFCHARTS ONE-YEAR VIEW OF XLP, COST, WMT, SFM, AND $SPX. Note how far SFM outperformed them all.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

I’ve written about SFM before, but I wasn’t expecting the stock to have outperformed its peers in the way that it has over the last year. All three stocks outperformed the S&P 500, while XLP underperformed the broader market.

Now it’s time to zoom in, starting with a daily chart of COST.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF COST. Relative to the Consumer Staples Bullish Percent Index ($BPSTAP), Costco is remarkably bucking the trend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Costco is poised to break above resistance at $1,008, a move that would push the stock to an all-time high. But does it have the momentum to sustain the rally? While breadth in the sector looks weak, with just 29% of stocks flashing Point & Figure buy signals according to the Consumer Staples sector’s Bullish Percent Index (BPI), COST stands out as an exception alongside two other names. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the stock is entering overbought territory but still has room to run, while the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) has just cleared the bullish 70 threshold, although it has struggled to hold above the ultra-bullish 90 level.

If the breakout fails, key support levels are $908 and $870. Momentum and volume are critical indicators of any potential bounce.

Shifting to a daily chart of WMT, the stock has maintained a steady uptrend with minimal volatility, aside from a summer dip, a sharp November rally, and a December pullback. The stock recently cleared resistance at $96, propelling it toward an all-time high.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF WMT. The stock price is at all-time highs. Volume and momentum are giving slightly, which may signal a pullback. Watch the Keltner Channel bands that are overlaid on the price chart.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The SCTR score remains around 90, signaling strong technical momentum across multiple timeframes. Keep an eye on price as the RSI is signaling potential overbought territory.

In terms of volume, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates a surge in buying pressure, reinforcing bullish sentiment. If WMT pulls back, keep an eye on the Keltner Channel bands, which act as both a trend indicator and dynamic support/resistance levels. Additionally, the most recent swing low of around $90 could serve as a key support zone.

Now, the strongest performing stock of the bunch: Sprouts. Below is a daily chart of SFM.

FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF SFM. This stock is the outperformer of the bunch. Watch key support levels (blue dashed horizontal lines) should it pull back.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Sprouts Farmers Market has exhibited strong technical momentum throughout 2024, mirroring WMT’s bullish trajectory. With the stock breaking above $155 to reach an all-time high, the Money Flow Index (MFI) signals overbought conditions, hinting at a potential pullback. If selling pressure emerges, key support levels to watch include prior resistance at $155, a congestion zone between $138 and $143, and the major swing low around $125. While MFI confirms strong volume and momentum, it also suggests that the rally may be a bit stretched in the short term.

At the Close

Costco, Walmart, and Sprouts Farmers Market have outperformed their sector peers, defying broader weakness in the group. While strong sector performance usually provides a tailwind for individual stocks, the opposite scenario raises concerns that sector-wide pressure could eventually drag these leaders lower. Monitor their key levels closely, especially during pullbacks, to determine whether they present a buying opportunity or a signal to stay on the sidelines.

If some stocks, like COST, are too pricey to buy several positions outright, check out StockCharts’ OptionsPlay Strategy Center to discover alternative strategies that align with your directional bias and risk tolerances, allowing you to capitalize on market opportunities more efficiently.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

US President Donald Trump has said he wants access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits in exchange for future military aid that Kyiv needs as it continues to defend itself against Russia’s aggression.

While the comment highlighted Trump’s transactional approach to the war in Ukraine, it was not entirely unexpected. The US and other Western countries have eyed Ukraine’s mineral riches for a long time.

“We’re putting in hundreds of billions of dollars. They have great rare earths. And I want security of the rare earth, and they’re willing to do (that),” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, without specifying what, if anything, Ukraine had agreed to do.

He has previously suggested that any future assistance should be provided as a loan and would be conditioned on Ukraine negotiating with Russia.

Under former US President Joe Biden, the US had provided Ukraine with $65.9 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022.

Biden argued the aid was necessary because Ukraine’s victory was key to America’s own security. Trump, however, has made it clear he doesn’t believe the US should continue providing assistance without getting something in return.

While Trump did not give any details on what he wants from Kyiv, a deal outlining a deeper cooperation between the US and Ukraine on minerals had been in the works for months before he took office in January.

A memorandum of understanding prepared under the Biden administration last year said the US would to promote investment opportunities in Ukraine’s mining projects to American companies in exchange for Kyiv creating economic incentives an implementing good business and environmental practices.

Ukraine already has a similar agreement with the European Union, signed in 2021.

Adam Mycyk, a partner in the Kyiv office of the global law firm Dentons, said that while the objective of the deal – securing critical mineral supplies from Ukraine – remains unchanged, Trump’s approach seems to be more transactional.

Kyiv has not yet responded to Trump’s comments, but the Ukrainian government has in the past made the argument that its mineral deposits are one of the reasons the West should support Ukraine – to prevent these strategically important resources from falling into Russian hands.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has specifically mentioned the possibility of future investments in the country’s natural resources by its Western allies as a key part of his “Victory plan.”

“The deposits of critical resources in Ukraine, along with Ukraine’s globally important energy and food production potential, are among the key predatory objectives of the Russian Federation in this war. And this is our opportunity for growth,” Zelensky said in a statement outlining the plan in October.

Nataliya Katser-Buchkovska, the co-founder of the Ukrainian Sustainable Investment Fund, said a deal that would bring US investment into Ukraine’s mining sector would be beneficial for both sides.

The US largely depends on imports for the minerals it needs, many of which come from China. Of the 50 minerals classed as critical, the US was entirely dependent on imports of 12 and more than 50% dependent on imports of a further 16, according to the United States Geological Survey, a government agency.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has deposits of 22 of these 50 critical materials, according to the Ukrainian government.

“It is not only a crucial step for Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery, but it’s also a chance for the US to address global supply chain issues,” said Katser-Buchkovska, who served as a member of the Ukrainian Parliament from 2014 to 2019 and was the head of a parliamentary committee on energy security and transition.

China’s global dominance

Although Trump used the term “rare earths,” it is unclear whether he intended to refer specifically to rare earth minerals – a group of 17 elements that exist in the earth’s core and have magnetic and conductive properties that make them crucial to the production of electronics, clean energy technologies and some weapon systems.

Ukraine doesn’t have globally significant reserves of rare earth minerals, but it does have some of the world’s largest deposits of graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium and uranium, all of which are classed by the US as critical minerals. Some of these reserves are in areas that are currently under Russian occupation.

China has long dominated the global production of rare earths minerals and other strategically important materials. It is responsible for nearly 90% of global processing of rare earth minerals, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). On top of that, China is also the world’s largest producer of graphite and titanium, and a major processor of lithium.

The latest trade spat between Washington and Beijing makes it even more important for the US to look for alternative suppliers.

The economic measures China announced on Tuesday in retaliation for Trump’s new tariffs include new export controls on more than two dozen metal products and related technologies. While they do not cover the most critical materials the US needs, the move indicates that China is prepared to use its mineral riches as leverage in trade disputes.

Mycyk said that the demand for these critical materials is expected to surge because of the global transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies.

“Ukraine’s deposits are thus globally significant, offering diversification away from dominant producers like China. Keeping these resources under Ukrainian control is crucial for maintaining its economic sovereignty,” he added.

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