As part of the DP Alert, we cover Bitcoin and the Dollar every market day. We have been watching some bearish indications on both Bitcoin and the Dollar with the double top chart patterns.
On Bitcoin, price has been moving mostly sideways above support at 90,000. This happens to be the confirmation line of the double top formation. The chart pattern calls for a decline the height of the pattern, which would give us a minimum downside target at about 75,000. The PMO is now in negative territory, but we do see that Stochastics have turned up. Support could hold here and price could continue to meander sideways, but, with this pattern, it is highly vulnerable.
On the weekly chart we see a parabolic advance followed by high level consolidation that formed a bull flag. After the last rally powered price up, we aren’t seeing high level consolidation; it instead looks like a topping formation with the double top very visible. The weekly PMO is nearing a Crossover SELL Signal, which doesn’t bode well.
The Dollar also has a bearish double top visible on the daily and weekly charts. It looked pretty good for the Dollar coming out of a bullish flag formation, but the rally stalled and set up the second top. Technically, the confirmation line (middle of the “M”) has been broken with Friday’s action. The RSI is negative and the PMO is in decline. Unlike Bitcoin, Stochastics are moving lower, suggesting we will see more downside out of the Dollar. That would be good for Gold, which is already enjoying a strong rally. The minimum downside target of the pattern would be around 28.25.
We had an especially bullish breakout from a bearish rising wedge, but now we have that double top. The weekly PMO has turned down, and price looks as if it will be back within the wedge soon.
Conclusion: We have bearish double tops on Bitcoin and the Dollar. Bitcoin has an opportunity to avoid the breakdown given rising Stochastics, but the Dollar seems destined to continue to make its way lower with dropping Stochastics. Downside targets are 75,000 for Bitcoin and 28.25 for the Dollar.
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Two years ago, two days of protests were enough to force Georgia’s government into an embarrassing U-turn. It had tried to introduce a “foreign agents” bill – which critics likened to legislation passed by President Vladimir Putin to stifle dissent in Russia – but backed down after fierce demonstrations sparked by the bill’s first reading.
“We fought it off like hell, used every instrument at our disposal,” recalls Ana Tavazde, one of tens of thousands who demonstrated against the bill, which would have forced media and other organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence” or be fined.
But the protesters’ victory was short-lived. The government revived the bill last year – and this time would not back down. The parliament approved it in May, despite huge opposition on the streets.
After the ruling Georgian Dream party – which declared victory anew after a disputed election in October – delayed the country’s long-awaited European Union membership bid until 2028, Tavazde was one of thousands of Georgians to take to the streets once again. The government invested in water cannons, according to local media reports, and started making mass arrests.
Since then, Georgia’s government has shown little sign of shifting its course, which many in the former Soviet country feel is taking the country back into the Kremlin’s orbit. And with the protest movement now approaching its third month, it is not clear what can break the stalemate.
Multiple opposition politicians have been publicly beaten, some in broad daylight. Hundreds of protesters have been arrested, of whom more than 300 allege suffering beatings, torture and other ill-treatment at the hands of law enforcement, according to Amnesty International. The police’s presence at rallies has been bolstered by masked men, who do not wear uniforms displaying their department and rank.
Extreme measures
“Today, almost a year later, you would say this has become a really nasty authoritarian regime.”
Pro-Western Salome Zourabichvili, who described the elections as “rigged” and called on Georgians to protest in October, was replaced as president by far-right former soccer star Mikheil Kavelashvili in mid-December. The government imposed further restrictions on freedom of assembly at the end of the year.
At the start of February, it proposed more extreme measures that would increase detention periods and fines for certain offenses, such as disorderly conduct or disobeying law enforcement officers, and limit the areas in which protests can be held, local outlet OC Media reported.
On February 5, the party announced it would be introducing unspecified laws targeted at the media and civil society and expelled 49 opposition MPs from Parliament. Three Georgian Dream MPs resigned, supposedly to form a new “healthy opposition ” – with the approval of the ruling party’s parliamentary speaker. On the same day, the prime minister called for “a sort of Nuremburg trial” to investigate the rule of UNM, the opposition party which governed from 2003 to 2012. The Georgian government has been approached for comment, but did not respond.
Journalist Mzia Amaglobeli is facing up to seven years in prison if convicted of assaulting a police officer. The founder of two independent publications, Batumelebi and Netgazeti, she was detained after allegedly slapping a police officer at a protest last month. The European Parliament has claimed Amaglobeli was “unlawfully arrested” and that the charges against her are “politically motivated.”
Soon after her detention, Amaglobeli started a hunger strike, which she has now been on for 34 days, to demand her release. When asked on February 4 how Amaglobeli’s hunger strike could end, Georgian Dream’s chairman said: “Hunger usually leads to death.”
The International Federation of Journalists has urged the Georgian government to “release Amaglobeli immediately and to stop its crackdown on journalists and independent media.”
Staying on the winning side
For many in this ex-Soviet country, the idea of pivoting towards Russia – which invaded in 2008 and continues to occupy 20% of Georgia’s territory – is unthinkable. Over 80% support EU membership, according to polls, and every party’s campaign platform for the October election included the pursuit of EU membership. Campaign posters for Georgian Dream even merged its logo with the gold stars of the EU flag.
So why has the government turned away from such a popular policy?
“I think he just kind of assumes that Moscow is going to win this war,” Mitchell added, referring to Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream’s founder and honorary chairman.
“And he’s going to stay on the winning side.”
Bidzina Ivanishvili made his fortune in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union in Russia in the 1990s and is estimated by Bloomberg to be worth $7.7 billion – a quarter of Georgia’s GDP in 2023. Protesters, some of whom have donned masks of his face at protests, see him as pushing Moscow’s agenda in this ex-Soviet country despite no longer holding any elected position.
Chugoshvili was one of several Georgian Dream politicians who resigned in 2019 after the parliament did not pass an amendment which would have made the electoral system fully proportional. “It was obvious that (Georgian Dream) was becoming obsessed with control,” said Chugoshvili, who co-founded Egeria Solutions, an NGO which has worked on European integration projects, after leaving the party.
“Georgian Dream and Bidzina plan to stay in power for ever. And they cannot do this while integrating into the EU and NATO.”
“Some local outlets are totally funded by USAID or affiliated organisations,” said Ostiller.
“They have no back-up, no savings. They will close, and if funding returns, reopening them will be far more difficult.”
Culture war rhetoric
In a country where the conservative Georgian Orthodox Church exerts massive influence, Ivanishvili has also leaned into “culture war” politics, observers say.
The results of last year’s elections, in which Georgian Dream claimed to receive about 54% of the vote, have been widely disputed; however, the party undoubtedly still has some support.
“It’s probably got a solid 35 to 45%,” Mitchell estimated. “They’re popular enough that they still have a base.”
But for a younger generation, who have only known Georgia as committed to EU and NATO membership and Russia as a threat, the anti-Western rhetoric doesn’t seem to land, and the government’s moves towards authoritarianism don’t seem to inspire fear. Protests are continuing into their third month.
Since protests broke out on November 28, Keren Esebua has been on the streets almost every night in Zugdidi – a city located just 60 kilometres (37 miles) from Abkhazia, a breakaway Georgian region occupied by Russia since 2008.
“I lost my home in Sukhumi, in Abkhazia, in 1993. And I was here in Zugdidi, blocking the way for Russian troops in 2008 when I was 19.
“I’m not giving Russia any kind of opportunity to swallow up Georgia again.”
Fragrance brand Brown Girl Jane’s perfume bottles sit on shelves at Sephora near some of the most storied labels in the fashion and beauty world, including Prada and Dior.
For the Black-owned brand, getting a retailer to bet on it was just the start, Brown Girl Jane CEO and co-founder Malaika Jones said. She said Sephora has supported the company so it can better compete with well-known brands with huge marketing budgets and glossy celebrity endorsements.
Brown Girl Jane got a $100,000 grant last year to help grow its business through Sephora’s Accelerate program, which aims to boost founders who are people of color. Sephora spotlighted the fragrance brand in an email to customers in early February, putting itin front of potential shoppers who don’t know its name. Brown Girl Jane’s sales more than doubled after Sephora began carrying the company’s fragrances online and at select stores about a year ago.
Brown Girl Jane’s sales have more than doubled since the brand got picked up by Sephora last year. The beauty retailer took the 15 Percent Pledge, an effort to add more Black-owned brands to shelves.Courtesy Brown Girl Jane
While Sephora has put its weight behind its brand incubator, much larger retailers like Walmart and Target recently scaled back similar efforts focused on finding and funding more brands founded by people of color.Without that support from the retailers themselves, brands like Brown Girl Jane could face a tougher time getting on shelves — and succeeding once they get there.
“For small brands, but for any brands, really, it’s a constant fight for relevance and for visibility,” Jones said. “And so when you don’t have that commitment or even that understanding from the retailer side, it becomes quite difficult for small brands to survive — even when they’ve made it on shelves.”
When retailers launched supplier diversity programs — many of them in the months after police killed George Floyd in 2020 — top industry leaders including Walmart CEO Doug McMillon and Target CEO Brian Cornell spoke out about the institutional barriers thatpeople of color face, including when financing their businesses. Now, as more retailers drop diversity, equity and inclusion programs, Black-owned brands may find it harder to clear those hurdles.
In January, Target dropped specific DEI pledges that it made four years ago after Floyd was murdered a short distance from its Minneapolis headquarters. Among those goals, the big-box retailer hadcommitted to adding products from more than 500 Black-owned brands to its shelves or website and spending $2 billion with Black-owned businesses by 2025.
Late last year, Walmart confirmed that it was ending key diversity initiatives, including winding down the Center for Racial Equity, a nonprofit that the retailer started and funded with $100 million to tackle racial inequities. It had chosen finance as one of those focus areas, noting the gap in funding for Black entrepreneurs.
Gutting those efforts could jeopardize a valuable pathway for Black founders to build their businesses and reach the millions of shoppers who browse the websites and aisles at the nation’s largest and best-known retailers.
Not every major retailer has dropped DEI initiatives. Sephora, Costco and E.l.f. Beauty, among others, have reaffirmed their commitments. And the most prominent effort to increase the share of Black-owned brands on retail shelves, the 15 Percent Pledge, still has major backers.
Companies from Google to Ford and Tractor Supplyhave rolled back their initiatives to boost representation of people of color, women and LGBTQ+ people, as political backlash and pressure from conservative activists has intensified. The trend only accelerated afterPresident Donald Trump issued an executive order banning DEI programs in the federal government and describing the efforts as “dangerous, demeaning, and immoral race- and sex-based preferences.”
It’s a sharp change from about five years ago, when companies released a wave of announcements committing to fighting inequity. They made bold pledges to add more diversity to their workforces and C-suites, seek out Black and minority vendors and donate to philanthropic causes that fought racism and supportedexpanded opportunities for marginalized groups.
Fear of litigation, activist investor scrutiny and political pressure has caused companies to backpedal or keep their initiatives below the radar, said Jon Solorzano, an attorney at Vinson & Elkins who advises companies on DEI.
One of those lawsuits targeted The Fearless Fund, an Atlanta-based venture capital fund dedicated to awarding grants to businesses founded by Black women to bridge a longstanding funding gap. Only 1.3% of the more than $345 billion raised by venture-backed startups in 2021 went to Black founders, according to Deloitte and Venture Forward’s 2023 report. About 2.4% went to startups led by female founders and 2.1% of that total went to startups led by Hispanic founders.
American Alliance for Equal Rights, a conservative group founded by Edward Blum, sued The Fearless Fund in 2023, accusing it of discriminating against non-Black business owners. Blum previously fought against race-based college admissions, a campaign that led to the Supreme Court’s ruling that affirmative action policies are unconstitutional — which some companies cited last year in ending their DEI initiatives.
As part of a settlement reached last year, The Fearless Fund shut down its grant program.
Solorzano said that lawsuit had a chilling effect and will “seriously undermine some of these [supplier] initiatives.” He said he expects more corporations to scrub numbers from their diversity programs, including supplier programs focused on increasing Black- and minority-owned brands on shelves.
Yet ending or scaling back efforts to seek out merchandise that reflects the diversity of U.S. consumers could put a company at risk, too, he said. Not only could companies face boycotts, but also they could miss out on fresher items and brands that help them stand apart from competitors.
Even as some retailers walk back diversity pledges, Sephora, Costco and E.l.f. Beauty, have doubled down on those efforts not as a feel-good move, but as a meaningful part of their business strategies.
Sephora, a 15 Percent Pledge memberwhich is owned by LVMH, has increased the percentage of Black-owned brands on its shelves from 3% in 2020 to about 10% as of 2025, said Artemis Patrick, CEO of Sephora North America. In its hair category, 15% of the brands are Black-owned.
Shoppers walk by a Sephora store in San Diego.Kevin Carter / Getty Images
Sephora started Accelerate in 2016 with a focus on female founders. The six-month incubator helps mentor business owners, connects them to investors and gives them the opportunity to launch at Sephora.
The retailer pivoted the program in 2020 to focus on Black and other minority founders to address “the need of the evolving consumer and where we truly did feel like we had an assortment gap,” Patrick said.
So far, more than 33 Black- and minority-owned brands have gone through the incubator, she said.
“Our business is really good and the fact that we’ve been really focused on diversifying our assortment, I think there’s a strong correlation,” she said.
She added “it would be very strange in a beauty category to not be driving diversity in your assortment that meets the needs of your clients.”
At Costco’s annual meeting last month, 98% of shareholders rejected a proposal that requested a report on the risk of Costco maintaining diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
A Costco in Cranberry Township, Pa.Gene J. Puskar / AP file
In a proxy statement ahead of themeeting, the warehouse club’s board of directors said diversity benefits its business and helps it better serve a wide range of customers.
“Among other things, a diverse group of employees helps bring originality and creativity to our merchandise offerings, promoting the ‘treasure hunt’ that our customers value,” it wrote.
Costco’s board added that diversity across its suppliers “fosters creativity and innovation in the merchandise and services that we offer our members.”
Tarang Amin, CEO of popular Gen Z makeup brand E.l.f. Beauty, called the company’s diversity “a key competitive advantage in terms of our results” in an interview with CNN earlier this month. He said the company’s employees are 74% women, 76% Gen Z and millennial and over 44% diverse and “reflect the community we serve.”
Nearly five years ago, Aurora James challenged companies in an Instagram post to dedicate more of their shelf space to Black-owned businesses. That idea, which she proposed days after Floyd’s murder, started the 15 Percent Pledge.
“So many of your businesses are built on Black spending power,” she wrote at the time. “So many of your stores are set up in Black communities. So many of your posts seen on Black feeds. This is the least you can do for us. We represent 15% of the population and we need to represent 15% of your shelf space.”
Sephora was the first company to sign the pledge. About 22 companies are active participants in the pledge, including Macy’s and Nordstrom, according to the nonprofit. The 15 Percent Pledge has a directory of Black-owned brands on its website. It also awards grants to businesses and raises money to back Black-owned businesses through an annual gala, which drew celebrities, actors and business leaders including Kim Kardashian, Kelly Rowland and Jesse Williams earlier this month.
Some of the changes inspired by the pledge are visible on shelves.
Sephora has more than tripled the Black-owned brands on its shelves in the past five years. In the email to customers, it noted that number had spiked from eight to 30 since it took the Fifteen Percent Pledge in 2020.
Those brands include makeup, shampoos and more backed by small entrepreneurs and celebrities, including Fenty Beauty by Rihanna, Pattern by Tracee Ellis Ross and Sienna Naturals, which was co-founded by Hannah Diop and actress Issa Rae.
Nordstrom, which also signed on to the 15 Percent Pledge, has now added more Black-owned brands, too, including Buttah Skin, Briogeo and Honor the Gift.
And Macy’s, another 15 Percent Pledge participant, has had an accelerator for over a decade which was launched to support underrepresented brand owners and founders. The Workshop, which started in 2011, offers grant funding and education for companies seeking to make it on retailers’ shelves and websites.
James, who herself is a Black founder of a luxury brand called Brother Vellies, said she’s disheartened to see companies back away from supporting smaller Black- and minority-owned suppliers.
“The idea is not about giving preferential treatment,” she said. “The idea is about making sure that we cast our net wide enough that we’re not just looking at the obvious channels.”
By relying more on big conglomerates, retailers miss out on funding smaller U.S. business that create jobs and stimulate the local economy, she said.
“In a time when I think small business all across America is suffering, to specifically target groups of founders and say, ‘You can’t get access or opportunity,’ just feels like a blow to all small businesses across America,” she said.
She said the reversal of DEI by some companies show their commitments never ran deep.
“Target never took the pledge. Walmart never took the pledge,” she said. “I don’t think that they were ever really that serious about what they were doing.”
Not every company has stuck with the pledge. Gap did not renew with the group late last year — but said in a statement that it’s not backing away from DEI efforts. Over the past year, the company has gone through major changes as part of a turnaround led by Richard Dickson, its new CEO.
In a statement, the denim and apparel retailer, which also includes Old Navy and Athleta, said the pledge looked different for the company because it sells and manufacturers its own brands. It said it “joined the pledge with the goal of increasing our diverse access and pipeline programs, and we met and exceeded that goal.”
A Gap spokesman declined to share specific goals, but said they focused on recruiting talent from diverse backgrounds.
This week, Gap rolled out a limited-time initiative to support Black businesses by selling shirts and hoodies from six Black designers from Harlem’s Fashion Row online and in select stores.
Walmart and Target have downplayed concerns that they will start to carry fewer Black-owned brands. A Walmart spokesperson pointed to the company’s Supplier Inclusion Program, which focuses on adding products from smaller vendors. She said the company also works with banks and lenders to expedite payments for orders or connect suppliers to loans.
Even as Target phases out DEI goals for Black-owned businesses, the discounter will keep offering Black-owned and minority-owned brands, a spokesman said. On its website, it’s promoting its collection of Black History Month items. He said Target will offer its Forward Founders program two times per year, which is designed for early-stage consumer packaged goods companies across categories including beauty, food and pets.
When Target launched Forward Founders in 2021, the company said the program was “designed to help Black-owned businesses increase their potential for long-term success in retail.”
Since last year, Target’s website has said the program is “evolving” — noting that founders no longer fill out an application for programs and Target will reach out to them if they’re “a strategic fit.” A spokesman said the company’s changes to its DEI initiatives do not affect its programs to boost founders, but did not offer more detail.
Some Black founders have warned against boycotting Target and other retailers that have walked back DEI efforts, saying it could further hurt Black-owned businesses.
In an Instagram post, social media personality, actress, and entrepreneur Tabitha Brown said “it’s definitely heartbreaking to feel unsupported.” But Brown, who has an active contract with Target, encouraged shoppers to use their dollars strategically when shopping Target’s shelves.
She’s developed merchandise with Target, including a collection of clothing, swimwear and home decor. Target also carries Donna’s Recipe, a haircare brand she co-founded.
“You can still go into those stores, if you choose to, and buy specific brands that you want to support. And let the other things not get your money,” she said.
She said if sales of Black-owned brands fall, retailers will remove them from their shelves.
“And then what happens to all the businesses who worked so hard to get where they are?” she said.
Handbag designer Brandon Blackwood said he worries that it will be harder for the next founder like him to get picked up by a major retailer.
Brandon Blackwood’s brand took off in 2020 when he made a tote labeled with three words instead of a logo: “End Systemic Racism.” The bag went viral.Nico Daniels / Courtesy Brandon Blackwood
His brand took off in 2020 during the Black Lives Matter movement, after he made a tote decorated with three words instead of a logo: “End Systemic Racism.” The bag gained traction through social media.
Yet he said major retailers that picked up handbags from his brand at the time, including Neiman Marcus, Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom, “helped put my product in front of a lot of people that wouldn’t necessarily have seen it.”
“That really helped us and that really helped our brand awareness,” he said.
If retailers drop supplier diversity initiatives, he said it will thin out choices for customers.
For Brown Girl Jane, winning the confidence and business of major retailers — and particularly, Sephora — has been game changing, said Jones, the company’s co-founder and CEO. The brand got picked up first by Nordstrom in 2021. Now, Macy’s, Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdale’s also sell its fragrances.
Sephora is its the biggest wholesale deal so far: The beauty retailer carries some exclusive scents, including Carnivale, a fragrance that sells for $102 and blends together juicy mango, sandalwood and creamy vanilla.
Jones said the company’s annual revenue is now in the $5 million to $7 million range. Roughly half of the company’s sales come from wholesale.
She described getting picked up by Sephora last year as a “vote of confidence,” but said they’ve also been “the biggest champion and a true partner of the brand.”
And she said that customers of all races desire her brand — and others from Black founders. About 40% of Brown Girl Jane’s customers are white, she said.
By backing away from DEI, she said companies also send a message to their buyers that casting a wide net for new brands doesn’t matter.
“It’s one thing to say ‘Ok, yeah. They [buyers] can still find who they find,’” she said. “But we know that without intentionality, a lot of these brands are just going to be overlooked.”
In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe shows how the 4-day moving average can be useful especially in volatile markets. He explains the advantages of using it in conjunction with the 18-day MA to prevent buying at the wrong time and highlighting when good opportunities appear. He then goes through the commodity charts and shows the improvement taking place. Finally, Joe dives into the symbol requests that came through this week, including ASAN, FTV, and more.
This video was originally published on February 12, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.
Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.
Sri Lanka extended power cuts for a third day on Thursday as it scrambled to restore its national grid to full capacity after a monkey triggered a widespread blackout over the weekend that disrupted supply to the island’s 22 million people.
An outage lasting six hours on Sunday was blamed by power minister, Kumara Jayakody, on a monkey that disrupted a grid station in a Colombo suburb. No power cuts were implemented on Wednesday, which was a holiday in Sri Lanka.
The animal had come into contact with the transformer at the station, disrupting supply to the entire country. There were no immediate details on whether the monkey survived the incident.
One-hour power cuts will be implemented from 6 p.m. (12:30 GMT), the island’s state-run power monopoly, the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), said in a statement.
Sunday’s disruption also affected the island’s only 900 MW coal fired power plant, causing it to operate in safe mode, the CEB said.
“All efforts are being made to restore the grid to full capacity but power cuts will be implemented to manage peak demand hours in the night,” the CEB statement added.
Ninety-minute power cuts were implemented on Monday and Tuesday to manage demand. An investigation into the outage was being conducted by the energy ministry.
The U.S. spirits industry maintained its market share leadership over beer and wine for a third straight year in 2024, even as revenues slid, according to new data released Tuesday.
Spirits supplier sales in the U.S. fell 1.1% last year to a total of $37.2 billion, while volumes rose 1.1%, according to the annual U.S. economic report from theDistilled Spirits Council, a leading trade organization.
That is the first time revenue for the spirits category has fallen in more than two decades. Despite a return to more typical buying patterns after a pandemic boom, spirits revenues have grown an average 5.1% annually since 2019. Between 2003 and 2019, the average annual growth rate was 4.4%.
“While the spirits industry has proven to be resilient during tough times, it is certainly not immune to disruptive economic forces and marketplace challenges, and that was definitely the case in 2024,” said DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger.
Tequila and mezcal remained a bright spot for the year as the only spirits category showing sales growth, as revenue climbed 2.9% to $6.7 billion.
Premixed ready-to-drink cocktails grew double digits, but the category includes various types of mixed spirits including vodka, rum, whiskey and cordials.
Mexican spirits and beer have grown more popular with consumers for over two decades, and tequila and mezcal sales outpaced American whiskey for the first time in 2023.
The road ahead for the Mexico-based products remains uncertain. The Trump administration earlier this month delayed imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico — which would include distinctive products such as mezcal and tequila — by one month while tariff negotiations continue.
“These tariffs have wreaked havoc on our craft distilling community,” said Sonat Birnecker Hart, president and founder of KOVAL Distillery in Chicago. “Many craft distillers have expended great time, effort and resources to expand into international markets only to see their dreams shattered by tariffs that have absolutely nothing to do with our industry,” Hart added.
Swonger also noted that tariffs would be a “catastrophic blow” to distillers and only add to the pressure higher interest rates have put on the industry’s supply chain, as wholesalers and retailers continue to deplete inventory buildups and cautiously restock products.
“Consumers were contending with some of the highest prices and interest rates in decades, which put a strain on their wallets and forced many to reduce spending on little luxuries like distilled spirits,” said Swonger.
“Our sales dipped slightly but consumers continued to choose spirits and enjoy a cocktail with family and friends,” he said.
On Monday morning, President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — a sweeping policy move that’s certain to reshape the Materials sector. While this can negatively affect several industries, domestic steel producers are likely to benefit from increased demand.
How Markets Reacted to the 25% Tariff Announcement
The StockCharts MarketCarpets provides a clear visual of how investors reacted when the tariff announcement made headlines.
FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS VIEW OF THE MATERIALS SECTOR. Notice the top gainers consist of domestic metals producers.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The stocks that gained the most following the announcement were Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) and Nucor Corporation (NUE), both domestic steel producers, as well as Newmont Corporation (NEM), a mining company focused on gold and copper extraction.
The surge in STLD and NUE reflects investor expectations that tariffs will curb foreign competition, allowing US steelmakers to raise prices and expand market share. NEM also gained, likely due to broader market concerns over trade tensions and inflation. On top of this, copper — a key industrial metal — could see supply chain shifts or price fluctuations, depending on how tariffs impact global trade flows.
Let’s take a longer-term look at these stocks relative to the Materials sector and the broader market (S&P 500). Below is a PerfCharts view of their relative performance over the last year.
FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF THE S&P 500, XLB, STLD, NUE, AND NEM. Though NEM outperformed, the other stocks and the Materials sector underperformed the broader market.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Global steel production decreased in 2024. So it’s no surprise that the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB), our sector proxy, underperformed the S&P 500, and that many steel producers and miners would also underperform the broader market and sector. Interestingly, NEM outperformed the S&P 500, XLB, STLD, and NUE in 2024 due to surging gold prices, strong financial performance, increased gold production, and free cash flow.
Still, if the new tariff environment remains unchanged, then NEM and especially STLD and NUE may have plenty of room to run. Let’s take a look at the sector and all three stocks to see if there are any present trading opportunities.
FIGURE 3. 5-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLB. Sector performance tends to follow a cyclical pattern, with March, July, and November historically seeing the highest close rates and average gains.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Geopolitical shifts under the new administration will likely reshape seasonal trends. Nevertheless, historical context remains valuable. Over the past five years, March has been XLB’s second-strongest month, with a 75% higher-close rate and an average gain of 4.8%. That’s the seasonality picture.
Now, let’s look at the price action from a longer-term trend perspective. Below is a weekly chart of XLB.
FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF XLB. While the Materials sector has lagged behind the S&P 500, it’s been trending upward nevertheless.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
This five-year chart shows XLB underperforming the S&P 500. If you go back a few decades, this negative performance has been steady. Yet XLB, due to overall market growth, inflation, and sector-specific cycles, has been trending up in absolute terms.
Demand for materials is cyclical, and the Materials sector Bullish Percent Index ($BPMATE), a breadth indicator, illustrates this clearly. Currently, the BPI is moving upwards, with 31% of stocks within the sector flashing Point & Figure buy signals. Typically a crossover from below to above 30% would issue a bull alert; a move above 50% would strongly favor the bulls, signifying that buyers have the edge. Understanding XLB’s broader trend helps contextualize whether the stocks within the sector are moving with or against the sector’s trend relative to their trajectories.
FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF NEM. Is it a new bullish trend or a bear rally?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
NEM is attempting to recover from a steep selloff that began in October. The key question is whether the bullish reversal signals the start of a robust recovery or a temporary bounce within a sustained downtrend.
To gain insight into this question, let’s examine a couple of indicators: one that measures momentum and another that analyzes volume. Volume-wise, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) plotted behind the price shows strong money flow into the stock, its buying pressure supporting NEM’s recovery. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is showing strong bullish momentum, yet indicates that NEM may be sailing into overbought conditions.
The key levels to watch are near the top line (Leading Span B, red cloud) and the projected bottom line (also the Leading Span B, but in the green section) of the Ichimoku Cloud. If price declines at or near the top, but bounces at the bottom, the bullish reversal thesis remains intact, signaling a potential early buying opportunity for those looking to get into the stock. If prices fall below the bottom level, the downtrend is likely to resume.
Now let’s look at the domestic steelmakers on the list, starting with a weekly chart of STLD.
FIGURE 6. WEEKLY CHART OF STLD. The stock price looks like it’s in a volatile ascent.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
I’m highlighting a weekly rather than a daily chart for two reasons: First, you can’t see the larger (trend) context on a daily chart, and second, the key levels are just as apparent in the weekly as in the daily chart.
Over the last six years, of which the last three are shown on the chart, STLD has been trending upward with increasing volatility. Steel production in the US may have decreased significantly in 2024, yet STLD prices continue to cumulatively rise. This trend underscores the inherent cyclicality of the steel industry, as evidenced by the fluctuating prices.
NOTE: Although “seasonality” and cyclicality can be related, the latter refers more to macroeconomic, industry, and supply-demand shifts. These typically drive fluctuations in a manner that gets smoothed out in seasonality charts. So, when I use the term “cyclicality,” I’m referring to these fluctuations before them being “averaged out” in a seasonality calculation.
The ZigZag line illustrates the major swing highs and lows that define the trend, as well as key support and resistance levels. If STLD’s uptrend were to maintain its trajectory, price must stay above the swing low level slightly above $110 (see magenta line) and eventually break above resistance at the most recent swing high at $155. Given this is a weekly chart, it may take months to play out (assuming the longer-term uptrend sustains itself).
Note, however, that the selling pressure appears to be the dominant driver for near-term volume, according to the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If volume precedes price in this particular instance, then a pullback may be imminent.
Last, but not least, take a look at a daily chart of NUE.
FIGURE 7. DAILY CHART OF NUE. The stock is in a downtrend and all the indicators spell a bear rally.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
NUE may have jumped 6.24% on Monday, but what are investors rushing into? While Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are likely to boost domestic steel producers, NUE is amid an arguably robust downtrend.
Its response to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (drawn from the December high to low) isn’t promising either, making the recent surge look more like a bear rally than a bullish trend reversal. Additionally, the CMF has remained largely negative, dipping well below the zero line and recently crossing it again, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate.
However, there are shoots of hope, as NUE appears to be rising against the broader Dow Jones U.S. Iron & Steel Index ($DJUSST) of which NUE is a component (see magenta line). If NUE stays above the $115 level (the most recent swing low), then such a level may signal a bottom. Of course, you’ll want to make sure that volume and momentum support are aligned with this potential reversal.
At the Close
If you’re bullish on U.S. steel producers, consider adding these stocks to your ChartLists, keeping a close watch on the MarketCarpets Materials sector view, and staying informed on industry news. With these tools and insights, you’re likely to spot a market opportunity.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
Nights out drinking can often end badly. But in Japan, they have a habit of going spectacularly wrong for government employees – who on at least two occasions in recent years have lost sensitive personal data after a few too many beers.
An employee of the Finance Ministry’s customs and tariff bureau went drinking with a colleague after work last Thursday, in the city of Yokohama south of Tokyo, according to public broadcaster NHK.
Within five hours, the man had nine glasses of beer, it reported. It wasn’t until he had left the restaurant, gotten on a train and traveled home that he realized his bag – containing highly sensitive information – was missing.
The employee had received the documents at a meeting earlier that day, the ministry said. Also in the bag was the employee’s work laptop, containing personal information about the man and his colleagues.
The ministry apologized to the public for “damaging” their trust, promising to punish the employee, according to NHK. So far, there have been no reports that the lost information has been used illegally, it said.
It may sound like an astonishing blunder – but it’s not the first time something like this has happened.
In 2022, another government worker lost a USB flash drive containing the personal details of every resident of the city of Amagasaki, northwest of Osaka.
The man had fallen asleep on the street after drinking alcohol at a restaurant, and when he woke up, his bag containing the flash drive was gone, NHK reported at the time.
The flash drive contained the names, birth dates, and addresses of 465,177 people – the city’s entire population. It also contained sensitive information including tax details, bank account names and numbers, and information on households receiving public assistance such as childcare payments.
A culture of drinking, and retro tech
While these two incidents represent unusually embarrassing nights out, Japan has long been notorious for its heavy drinking work and office culture.
It’s not unusual to see groups of salarymen in business suits chugging beer at izakaya pubs late into the evening or slumped in the middle of the street after consuming too much.
Japan’s health ministry warned of the dangers of excessive drinking in 2021, calling it a “major social problem.”
These marathon drinking sessions serve to encourage business relations with colleagues and clients, often helping secure deals and curry favor in the workplace. But the heavy drinking habits are also a reflection of Japan’s grueling work culture – with employees traditionally working brutal hours under immense pressure with stagnant salaries.
Even as Japan’s government tries to ease the pressure – drafting legislation to prevent death and injury from excessive work hours, and introducing a four-day workweek for Tokyo government employees – old habits die hard.
Combine that drinking culture with Japan’s particularly old-fashioned preference for analog technologies and the risk increases of sensitive data going astray.
Japan’s bureaucratic systems are famously slow to change, with a reliance on technologies and systems that are obsolete in many other parts of the world – hence employees’ use of hard drives, paper documents and other easily-lost items.
This was highlighted in 2018 when the then cybersecurity minister shocked the public by saying he’d never used a computer – a claim he later walked back after it made international headlines.
The massive gap in modern technology became clear during the Covid-19 pandemic when the government’s efforts toward mass vaccination and testing revealed the inefficiencies of paper filing and other outdated systems, Reuters reported.
A digital agency was soon set up to overhaul the government’s internal systems. The new digital minister declared a “war on floppy disks” – which were only phased out across the government in 2024, long after other major economies and world leaders had stopped using them.
The agency has also targeted fax machines and traditional carved seals used instead of signatures to sign documents in Japan.
The U.S. is facing a power capacity crisis as the tech sector races against China to achieve dominance in artificial intelligence, an executive leading the energy strategy of Alphabet’s Google unit said this week.
The emergence of China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence firm sent the shares of major power companies tumbling in late January on speculation that its AI model is cheaper and more efficient. But Caroline Golin, Google’s global head of energy market development, said more power is needed now to keep up with Beijing.
“We are in a capacity crisis in this country right now, and we are in an AI race against China right now,” Golin told a conference hosted by the Nuclear Energy Institute in New York City on Tuesday.
Alphabet’s Google unit embarked four years ago on an ambitious goal to power its operations around the clock with carbon-free renewable energy, but the company faced a major obstacle that forced a turn toward nuclear power.
Google ran into a “very stark reality that we didn’t have enough capacity on the system to power our data centers in the short term and then potentially in the long term,” Golin said.
Google realized the deployment of renewables was potentially causing grid instability, and utilities were investing in carbon-emitting natural gas to back up the system, the executive said. Wind and particularly solar power have grown rapidly in the U.S., but their output depends on weather conditions.
“We learned the importance of the developing clean firm technologies,” Golin said. “We recognized that nuclear was going to be part of the portfolio.”
Last October, Google announced a deal to purchase 500 megawatts of power from a fleet of small modular nuclear reactors made by Kairos Power. Small modular reactors are advanced designs that promise to one day speed up the deployment of nuclear power because they have smaller footprints and a more streamlined manufacturing process.
Large nuclear projects in the U.S. have long been stymied by delays, cost overruns and cancellations. To date, there is no operational small modular reactor in the U.S. Google and Kairos plan to deploy their first reactor in 2030, with more units coming online through 2035.
Golin said the project with Kairos is currently in an initial test-pilot phase with other partners that she would not disclose. Kairos received permission in November from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build two 35-megawatt test reactors in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
The goal is to get buy-in from partners like electric utilities to create an approach that can broadly deploy the technology, Golin said.
The nuclear industry increasingly views the growing power needs of the tech sector as a potential catalyst to restart old reactors and build new ones. Amazon announced an investment of more than $500 million in small nuclear reactors two days after Google unveiled its agreement with Kairos.
Last September, Constellation Energy said it plans to bring the nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania back online through a power purchase agreement with Microsoft.
Golin said nuclear is a longer-term solution, given the reality that power capacity is needed now to keep up with China in the artificial intelligence race. “Over the next five years, nuclear doesn’t play in that space,” she said.
President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency through executive order on his first day in office. The order cited electric grid reliability as a central concern.
Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that he would use emergency powers to expedite the construction of power plants for AI data centers.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright issued an order on Feb. 5 that listed “the commercialization of affordable and abundant nuclear energy” as a priority.
In this video, Dave breaks down the formerly high-flying Mag 7 stocks into three distinct buckets. These include long & strong (META, NFLX & AMZN), broken down (TSLA, AAPL, MSFT & NVDA), and questionable (GOOGL). He also shows how GOOGL is not the only leading name featuring a bearish momentum divergence in February 2025, and what that could mean for the broad equity markets!