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February 20, 2025

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The Best Five Sectors, #7

5 Mins Read

Shifting Sands in the Top Five

At the end of last week, there were some interesting shifts in sector positioning, though the composition of the top five remained unchanged. Let’s dive into the details and see what the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) tell us about the current market dynamics.

At the close of trading on Valentine’s Day (February 14th), we saw a bit of a love-hate relationship playing out among the sectors. Here’s how they stacked up:

  1. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  2. (1) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  3. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
  4. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
  5. (4) Industrials – (XLI)*
  6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
  7. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  8. (9) Real Estate – (XLRE)*
  9. (10) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (8) Health Care – (XLV)*
  11. (11) Materials – (XLB)

Communication Services took the top spot from Consumer Discretionary, pushing that sector down to #2 and Financials down to #3. Technology and Industrials swapped places four and five.

We also saw some reshuffling in the bottom half of the ranking. Utilities (XLU) held steady, while Consumer Staples (XLP) maintained its #7 spot. Real Estate (XLRE) and Energy (XLE) each climbed a rung, landing at #8 and #9, respectively. Health Care (XLV) tumbled from #8 to #10, and Materials (XLB) remained firmly planted in the basement at #11.

Weekly RRG: A Familiar Picture

The weekly RRG paints a similar picture to last week, with a few notable developments:

Consumer Discretionary still has the highest reading but is heading south inside the leading quadrant. Communication Services is losing some momentum but maintaining its relative strength. Despite being in the weakening quadrant, Financials has hooked back up—a positive sign. Technology is almost stationary, teetering on the edge of improving and leading.

Perhaps the most intriguing action is happening in the lagging quadrant, where most tails hook up slightly. While not all have achieved a positive heading yet, it’s a sign of potential improvement on the horizon.

Health Care is the lone wolf in the improving quadrant, a positive development. However, its low reading on the JdK RS-Ratio scale suggests it still has some work.

Daily RRG: Tech’s Time to Shine?

Switching gears to the daily RRG, we get a clearer picture of why some sectors are jockeying for position:

Technology flexes muscles with a strong, long tail in the improving quadrant.

Consumer Discretionary is heading in the opposite direction, moving into lagging territory.

Communication Services is holding onto its relative strength despite losing some momentum.

Financials, Health Care, and Materials are all in the lagging quadrant with negative headings.

Utilities are showing apparent strength, moving into the leading quadrant with gusto.

Spotlight on the Top Five

Let’s get into the trenches and examine each of our top performers:

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC is fulfilling expectations by emerging from its flag consolidation pattern and moving towards new all-time highs. It is also enhancing its standing on price and relative charts, which are bullish indicators of the sector’s ongoing supremacy.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

XLY is indicating some concerning trends. It has established a possible double top, which will be validated if the price falls below $218, the low from five weeks ago. The relative strength line mirrors this formation, and the RRG lines are declining. Considering its earlier strength, a notable decline may take a while to materialize, but it is certainly one to monitor closely.

Financials (XLF)

Financials are holding their ground admirably. Last week saw a break above the previous high on a closing basis — something that didn’t happen in the two weeks prior. The raw RS line also pushes against (and possibly above) its previous high. If this improvement continues, expect Financials to maintain its top-five status.

Technology (XLK)

Tech is making a comeback, overtaking Industrials for the #4 spot. Price-wise, we’re still grappling with overhead resistance around $242, but we closed at the week’s high — a positive sign. The relative strength is moving higher off the lower boundary, and RRG lines continue to climb (with a slight dip in momentum). I’m keeping a close eye on that $242 level — a break above could signal the start of a new leg up for the sector.

Industrials (XLI)

Industrials are living up to our expectations as the weakest link in the top five. It’s dropped from #4 to #5, thanks to continued weakness in relative strength. The RRG lines point lower, suggesting it’s only a matter of time before XLI drops out of the top five. Price-wise, we’re still within the rising channel, but a lower high has formed — not a great sign. Support comes in around $134 (rising support line) and $132-130 (late December low). A break below these levels could trigger a more significant decline.

Portfolio Performance Update

Despite the changing conditions, our RRG portfolio remains robust. Since its inception, it has achieved a 4.88% gain, while the SPY benchmark has only increased by 4.29%, resulting in an outperformance of 59 basis points.

#StayAlert and enjoy your long weekend. –Julius

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In World news

A conservationist is building bridges in the Amazon so monkeys can cross the road

3 Mins Read

The first time Brazilian biologist Fernanda Abra saw a Groves’ titi monkey, one of the most 25 endangered primates in the world, it was positioned right next to a road.

“It was totally exposed to road mortality,” recalls Abra.

Although figures vary wildly, by some estimates, 475 million vertebrate animals are killed by vehicles every year in the South American country, which is home to the world’s fourth biggest road network, and the Amazon rainforest.

It’s a problem that Abra, who is a postdoctoral fellow at the Smithsonian’s Center for Conservation and Sustainability, Conservation Biology Institute, has been trying to solve by building bridges at the canopy level, so tree-dwelling species can safely traverse roadways.

Wildlife crossings around the world

Working with local partners including the indigenous Waimiri-Atroari people, who hold important knowledge about the wildlife in their territory in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Roraima, Abra’s Reconecta Project has built more than 30 canopy crossings on the BR-174, a 3,300-kilometer (2,000-mile) highway slicing through the Amazon. In 2024, she was among the winners of the Whitley Fund for Nature Award, which celebrates grassroots conservationists, for her efforts.

Abra hopes the structures can help turn things around for some of Brazil’s vulnerable and endangered species, like the Groves’ titi, the Schneider’s marmoset, and the Guiana Spider Monkey.

Each bridge is fitted with cameras to monitor the animals using it, and those that approach it but turn away, so the structure can be redesigned to convince critters to cross.

“Every time I see the video of the monkey using my canopy bridge, it’s wonderful because we are avoiding the situation of road mortality,” says Abra.

Reconnecting fragments of forest that have been cut apart by human-built infrastructure can have other benefits, like giving animals access to more food resources and potential mates.

“Connecting the population, we can make it stronger and allow it to grow,” says Abra.

Camera-trap footage showing a primate using a Reconecta Project canopy crossing.
Reconecta Project

That could be crucial as Brazil builds more roads. In 2023, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced plans to spend almost $200 billion on infrastructure, including new highways.

Similar approaches are being put into use across the world. In California, an overpass is under construction above the 10-lane 101 Freeway, that will provide safe passage for animals like mountain lions, coyotes and bobcats.

Abra also has plans for growth. The Reconecta Project is now expanding in Alta Floresta, a city in the west-central state of Mato Grosso, where she’s engaging officials from various government departments and representatives from non-profits and universities, she says. The canopy bridges will be supplemented with measures like speed bumps to slow down traffic and wildlife crossing signs to alert motorists.

She hopes to eventually expand to other areas in Brazil. “What amazes me about Brazil is the richness that we have, the wonderful biodiversity we have here,” says Abra, “and I will do everything that I can as a person, as a professional, as a conservationist and researcher to protect this rich biodiversity.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

U.S. homebuilders raise alarm over tariffs as sentiment falls to 5-month low

3 Mins Read

Sentiment among the nation’s single-family homebuilders dropped to the lowest level in five months in February, largely due to concern over tariffs, which would raise their costs significantly.

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped a sharp 5 points from January to a reading of 42. Anything below 50 is considered negative sentiment. Last February, the index stood at 48.

“While builders hold out hope for pro-development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty and cost factors created a reset for 2025 expectations in the most recent HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a home builder from Wichita, Kansas.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 4 points to 46, buyer traffic fell 3 points to 29 and sales expectations in the next six months plunged 13 points to 46. That last component hit its lowest level since December 2023.

Builders are already facing elevated mortgage rates. The average rate on the 30-year fixed was over 7% for January and February after earlier being in the 6% range. Home prices are also higher than they were a year ago, weakening affordability further.

While President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, originally proposed to take effect in early February, were delayed roughly a month, builders are still expecting higher costs.

“With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

Homebuilder sentiment had been gaining steadily since August on the expectation of lower mortgage rates and, as the builders noted, potential pro-development policies. Single-family housing starts are trending lower than they were a year ago, despite a lean supply of existing homes for sale.

The drop in builder sentiment, coming right before the all-important spring market, signals potentially even less supply in the market. Several homebuilders have noted the pullback in buyer demand in recent earnings reports.

“Despite Federal Reserve actions to lower short-term interest rates, mortgage interest rates remained elevated in the fourth quarter, which impacted buyer demand as homebuyers continue to face affordability challenges,” said Ryan Marshall, CEO of PulteGroup, in its fourth-quarter earnings release.

The share of builders lowering prices dropped to 26% in February, down from 30% in January and the lowest share since May 2024. Other sales incentives also fell.

This may be because incentives are becoming less effective at attracting buyers, since high prices and high rates have reduced the pool of buyers for whom these benefits move the needle, according to the NAHB.

When a buyer is solidly priced out, no incentive helps, and with rates remaining higher, the pool of marginal buyers may be shrinking. Offering incentives to buyers who would buy regardless of price or rates is of diminishing value for builders.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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