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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock surged over 50% after reporting earnings last week. The top and bottom line results weren’t stellar. The guidance, however, was enough to fuel a buying frenzy, driving the stock’s rally to a 110% gain this month. But is it sustainable?  Once SMCI pulls back, does it have the technical strength and fundamental conditions to make it a favorable trade?

SMCI set its revenue guidance to $40 billion by 2026, an ambitious target. Many analysts are skeptical, with several maintaining their “underweight” rating. Investors, on the other hand, are jumping in regardless, betting on increased AI infrastructure spending, particularly among giants like Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).

With bulls and bears divided, what do the technicals say? What entry points and targets might the price action give us, if any? 

Let’s get started. Below is a weekly chart detailing SMCI’s two-year price action.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK.  The stock saw an impressive rise followed by an equally strong fall. Can it sustain its recovery? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

From May 2023 to March 2024, SMCI saw a jaw-dropping rally of 1,167% from around $10 a share to $120. But then, it all came to a screeching halt as financial and regulatory concerns — specifically allegations of accounting and transaction irregularities — sent the stock into a prolonged tailspin. Over nearly a year of selling pressure, SMCI plummeted, finally hitting rock bottom at $23 in November.

Since then, SMCI has been attempting to recover, twice testing and finally breaking above resistance at the $50 range (see the highlighted yellow range). Interestingly, despite its year-long plunge, it still outperformed its broader industry, represented by the Dow Jones US Computer Hardware Index ($DJUSCR), by $297%.

So, what does the situation look like up close, and might there be an entry point? Let’s now shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. The trend is shifting, so it’s important to watch the key levels and momentum shift via the full stochastic oscillator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

First, note how the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score jumped well above the bullish 70-line. The shift from extreme technical weakness to technical strength potentially foreshadows a bullish shift in the trend. But it depends on how price responds to a few key levels.

The price looks a bit overextended. While runaway gaps tend not to get filled immediately within a week after the move, there’s still the likelihood that a pullback may occur in the next few sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is well above 80, signaling a potentially overbought condition, although both lines (%K and %D) have been known to occasionally hover in either extreme (above 80 and below 20) for a prolonged period. 

About the stochastic oscillator, note how it signaled the (overbought) limit of each major swing high during the downtrend. If SMCI’s trend shifts upward, you will use the oscillator to anticipate potential swing lows throughout the uptrend. 

Concerning the trend, look at the ZigZag line highlighting the stock’s major swing points. For the bullish reversal to evolve into a full-fledged uptrend, it should remain above the most recent swing low point (see blue dotted line) near $25.  Before that, however, SMCI may rebound at the recently breached resistance level (yellow line). If it drops below this level, the next potential support is around $37.50 (blue line), which has acted as both support and resistance from last September to this February.

At the Close

If you’re considering a position in SMCI, here are your next steps:

  1. Add SMCI to your ChartLists.
  2. Monitor price action if SMCI pulls back, paying close attention to how it reacts to the key levels mentioned above.

A bounce off support could indicate a favorable entry point. However, if the price falls below $25, the bullish outlook becomes uncertain. A drop below $17.50 would invalidate the bullish thesis entirely.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

A “window for peace is opening” in Ukraine, China’s top diplomat told a meeting of G20 foreign ministers on Thursday, as the Trump administration ramps up its push to end the war in close coordination with Russia.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the margins of the gathering in South Africa, the first high-level talks between the two close partners since US President Donald Trump upended America’s stance on the conflict this month with a sweeping pivot toward Moscow.

That’s seen top Trump officials hold bilateral talks with Moscow over Kyiv’s head and launch a barrage of criticism against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with a senior American official warning on Thursday that the US is losing patience with Kyiv.

The G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, which was not attended by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, came as the breakneck diplomacy has left Europe and China on the sidelines and raised questions about a shifting balance of power in a fraught geopolitical landscape.

China “supports all efforts dedicated to peace, including the recent consensus reached between the US and Russia,” Wang told counterparts at the gathering in Johannesburg.

A “window for peace is opening” on the war, he added.

The war and US relations were among subjects discussed between the top Chinese diplomat and Lavrov on the meeting sidelines, a Russian readout said. The two sides – which have tightened their relations during the war – also praised their growing cooperation.

On Ukraine, both countries appeared to agree that it was necessary to address the conflict’s “root causes” – an apparent veiled reference to NATO – with Russia’s readout attributing this sentiment to Wang and China’s attributing this to Lavrov.

Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago in an uninterrupted onslaught that has killed tens of thousands and displaced about 10 million people. The invasion has also laid waste to Ukrainian cities and drawn allegations of war crimes by Moscow’s forces, which are entrenched in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine.

Even though Russia invaded its neighbor, Beijing and Moscow have blamed NATO expansion as the cause of the conflict – part of their broader shared opposition to the US system of alliances they see as positioned against their interests.

Lavrov earlier this week praised Trump for being what he described as “the first Western leader” to acknowledge publicly that the “cause of the Ukrainian conflict was the efforts … to expand NATO.”

Russia has long claimed that expansion of the US-led defense alliance put its security under threat, necessitating its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. That claim has been dismissed by Western leaders as a bogus justification for launching its war.

The sharp shift in US positioning on the conflict was underscored Thursday as Trump’s national security adviser Michael Waltz described the US president’s “frustration” with Zelensky following a meeting between the Ukrainian leader and the US’ Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellog in Kyiv.

“President Trump is obviously very frustrated right now with President Zelensky — the fact that — that he hasn’t come to the table, that he hasn’t been willing to take this opportunity that we have offered,” Waltz told a news briefing in Washington, referencing an economic deal that the Trump administration has so far been unsuccessful in convincing Kyiv to accept.

“I think he eventually will get to that point, and I hope so very quickly,” Waltz said, echoing comments he made before the Kellogg-Zelensky meeting, urging the Ukrainian leader to “sign the deal.”

Trump-Zelensky rift

Waltz’s comments came amid what has been a deepening rift between Trump and Zelensky that has cast more uncertainty over how Ukraine’s interests would be represented in future talks on ending the war.

Trump ramped up his long-standing criticism of Ukraine’s leader in recent days, parroting Kremlin rhetoric that wrongly accuses Kyiv of starting the war with Russia and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy to lead since he suspended an election due to the invasion.

After Zelensky hit back, accusing the US president of being in a “disinformation space,” Trump escalated the fight on Wednesday, calling Zelensky “a Dictator without elections” in a scathing post on his platform Truth Social.

Following talks Thursday with envoy Kellogg, Zelensky appeared keen to stress Ukraine’s interest in maintaining strong US relations.

“General Kellogg’s meeting is one that restores hope, and we need strong agreements with America, agreements that will really work,” Zelensky said in his nightly address to the Ukrainian people.

“Economy and security must always go hand in hand, and the details of the agreements matter: the better the details, the better the result.”

Kellogg and Zelensky’s team had discussed Ukraine’s prisoners of war, and “the need for a reliable and clear system of security guarantees so that the war does not return,” the Ukrainian president added.

The meeting followed a sit down earlier this month between Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich.

In his comments Thursday, national security adviser Waltz defended Washington’s “shuttle diplomacy” approach to speak with Russian and Ukrainian counterparts separately.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Walmart is known for its low prices and no frills approach.

So it may come as a surprise that wealthier shoppers are helping to fuel the retailer’s growth.

For more than two years, the discounter has noticed more customers with six-figure incomes shopping on its website and in its stores. Households earning more than $100,000 made up 75% of the company’s market share gains in the fiscal third quarter, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on the company’s earnings call in November.

Those newer and more frequent customers have helped support the company’s aspirations to sell more higher-margin items, such as clothing and home goods. They are driving Walmart’s e-commerce sales, which have grown by double digits for 10 consecutive quarters. And they can boost the retailer’s newer revenue streams, such as subscription-based membership program Walmart+ and its advertising business Walmart Connect.

As Walmart reports its latest earnings on Thursday, Wall Street will be watching whether those upper-income customers are sticking around, after market share gains helped the retailer’s shares soar about 83% in the last year. Yet some investors have questioned whether Walmart’s traction with affluent shoppers has staying power, especially if the sticker shock of inflation cools.

In an interview with CNBC, Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner acknowledged that the retailer has gained and then lost upper-income customers before, such as in 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession. Affluent shoppers stretched their dollars at the big-box retailer, but then ultimately returned to competitors.

This time, Furner said the gains will last because Walmart can save shoppers both time and money with e-commerce options.

“It’s different because we deliver to you at the curb [of the store],” he said in the late January interview. “We deliver to your house. We deliver your refrigerator. That whole Supercenter, which is an amazing retail format, is available in an hour or two for a large part of the country and growing really quickly.

Walmart’s expanding digital services have helped convince higher-income shoppers to give it a shot, said Brad Thomas, a retail analyst and managing director at KeyBanc Capital Markets. Some of those newer or more frequent customers have joined Walmart+, a subscription-based membership program that includes perks like free home deliveries. Walmart+, which launched about five years ago, is Walmart’s answer to Amazon Prime.

Walmart has not disclosed the program’s membership count, but it has reported double-digit membership income growth in each of the past four quarters..

Thomas said e-commerce options wipe out a potential hurdle for affluent shoppers: a potential stigma about shopping at the big-box stores themselves.

“There’s a customer in America that doesn’t think of itself as a Walmart shopper,” he said. “They think of themselves as a Target shopper or a Publix or a Whole Foods shopper and through the app and through the delivery capabilities, they can remain a non-Walmart core shopper, but get all the benefits of getting the branded items at Walmart prices.”

As inflation forced shoppers of all incomes to hunt for deals, some wealthier consumers realized they can get the same national brands like Tide detergent or Bounty paper towels from Walmart cheaper and often faster than at Amazon because of Walmart’s nearby stores, he said.

Walmart’s website and app have increased their selection, too, as the company has bulked up its third-party marketplace. Starting this summer, the company began offering premium beauty brands through its website, including hairdryers from T3 and perfumes from Victoria’s Secret.

Shoppers can now find handbags from Chanel and Louis Vuitton, too. Last month, Walmart announced a deal with resale platform Rebag, which sells the items through Walmart’s marketplace.

Yet as Walmart tries to keep those customers, it wants to encourage them to shop in person, as well. Walmart has stepped up investments in its stores to freshen its look and counter negative perceptions that higher-income shoppers might have.

Walmart has sped up the pace of remodels for its more than 4,600 stores across the U.S., with plans to revamp about 650 locations per year, an acceleration from a prior cadence of 450 to 500 per year, said Hunter Hart, senior vice president of Walmart Realty.

Remodeled stores have brighter lighting, wider aisles and mannequins, said Alvis Washington, Walmart’s vice president of retail brand experience. The stores also feature Walmart’s newer and more fashion-forward brands like Scoop and Free Assembly, and national brands that shoppers would recognize, such as Reebok.

The discounter launched a new grocery brand, BetterGoods, last year with colorful packaging and creative flavors that looks similar to merchandise that shoppers might find at Trader Joe’s or Target.

The Walmart U.S. CEO Furner said some of those changes have drawn upper-income customers to the company’s stores and app.

He said Walmart’s market share gains with affluent shoppers have come from online and in-store shopping, but added curbside pickup orders showed early signs of popularity with those customers. Even before the pandemic, Walmart saw that people who shopped with curbside pickup bought more higher-priced items, such as prime beef and seafood, Furner added.

He said that still rings true: Walmart sees more premium items in the shopping baskets of customers who buy online, get home deliveries or use curbside pickup.

Washington said Walmart treaded carefully with its store redesign, realizing it could risk its reputation for low prices and resonance with core customers, who typically have lower incomes. It promoted newer brands, but mixed in familiar staples, such as folded piles of inexpensive bath towels and denim.

“Having a great, elevated experience and great value aren’t mutually exclusive,” Walmart’s Washington said, recounting the company’s approach. “So when we looked at this, it’s like, how do we do both and make sure we can gain new customers and maintain the customers that we have?

When comparing remodeled stores to the rest of the fleet, Washington said higher comparable store sales reflect that customers like the different look. Walmart declined to provide specific numbers, saying it won’t release sales numbers until it reports fourth-quarter earnings.

Walmart’s customer mix for its U.S. e-commerce business hasn’t changed, even as it attracts higher-income shoppers, according to an analysis by market research firm Euromonitor. About 34% of Walmart’s online customers in the U.S. last year had incomes of $100,000 and above, which is roughly flat compared to two years prior.

Michelle Evans, global lead for retail and digital shopper insights at Euromonitor, said that indicates that Walmart is also gaining market share from lower- and middle-income customers.

Walmart still has a smaller share of higher-income shoppers than some key rivals: 49% and 48% of online U.S. shoppers at Target and Amazon, respectively, have incomes above $100,000.

Amazon remains a formidable competitor, especially when it comes to wealthier shoppers and general merchandise categories, Evans said. But Walmart’s biggest edge is its grocery department.

One of Walmart’s newer, higher-income shoppers is Francesca Frink. The 30-year-old lives in the Chicago suburb of Park Ridge, Ill. with her husband, Sam, 1-year-old son and their English setter. The Frink family’s combined annual household income is over $200,000.

Last fall, Francesca Frink signed up for Walmart+ after her mother-in-law ordered a stroller from Walmart’s website and got it dropped at her door three hours later.

Initially, she said she hesitated to order fresh foods from Walmart. She bought packaged items like pasta and flour. Yet over time, the couple began ordering a larger portion of groceries, dog treats and even clothes for their son from Walmart.

The Frinks have stopped going to their old grocery store, Kroger-owned supermarket Mariano’s. They estimate that their weekly grocery bill is about 20% cheaper.

Previously, the couple said they avoided Walmart because their nearest store is outdated. Yet Sam Frink said the game has changed with curbside pickup and home deliveries.

“You don’t have to go in,” he said. “That’s the biggest thing.”

Francesca Frink said home deliveries from Walmart, included in their Walmart+ membership, save the couple time while they juggle two careers, a toddler and a dog. Plus, she said she found that Walmart had the grocery items she wanted and even those she didn’t expect, including organic blueberries, natural peanut butter and specialty mushroom ravioli.

Still, Francesca Frink said she still faces some apprehension from friends and family about buying groceries from Walmart.

But she said they’ve been surprised when they’ve tried and liked food items from Walmart.

In her day job, Euromonitor’s Evans tracked Walmart’s digital gains with higher-income shoppers. Yet she also saw it firsthand in her household.

Her husband signed the family up for Walmart+. During the holiday season, he told her all of his Christmas purchases would be coming from the discounter.

“He made a comment that all the gifts were coming from Walmart, and obviously that comes with a certain impression,” she said.

So she was surprised when she opened his gift and discovered it was a Michael Kors tote.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Shifting Sands in the Top Five

At the end of last week, there were some interesting shifts in sector positioning, though the composition of the top five remained unchanged. Let’s dive into the details and see what the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) tell us about the current market dynamics.

At the close of trading on Valentine’s Day (February 14th), we saw a bit of a love-hate relationship playing out among the sectors. Here’s how they stacked up:

  1. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  2. (1) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  3. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
  4. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
  5. (4) Industrials – (XLI)*
  6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
  7. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  8. (9) Real Estate – (XLRE)*
  9. (10) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (8) Health Care – (XLV)*
  11. (11) Materials – (XLB)

Communication Services took the top spot from Consumer Discretionary, pushing that sector down to #2 and Financials down to #3. Technology and Industrials swapped places four and five.

We also saw some reshuffling in the bottom half of the ranking. Utilities (XLU) held steady, while Consumer Staples (XLP) maintained its #7 spot. Real Estate (XLRE) and Energy (XLE) each climbed a rung, landing at #8 and #9, respectively. Health Care (XLV) tumbled from #8 to #10, and Materials (XLB) remained firmly planted in the basement at #11.

Weekly RRG: A Familiar Picture

The weekly RRG paints a similar picture to last week, with a few notable developments:

Consumer Discretionary still has the highest reading but is heading south inside the leading quadrant. Communication Services is losing some momentum but maintaining its relative strength. Despite being in the weakening quadrant, Financials has hooked back up—a positive sign. Technology is almost stationary, teetering on the edge of improving and leading.

Perhaps the most intriguing action is happening in the lagging quadrant, where most tails hook up slightly. While not all have achieved a positive heading yet, it’s a sign of potential improvement on the horizon.

Health Care is the lone wolf in the improving quadrant, a positive development. However, its low reading on the JdK RS-Ratio scale suggests it still has some work.

Daily RRG: Tech’s Time to Shine?

Switching gears to the daily RRG, we get a clearer picture of why some sectors are jockeying for position:

Technology flexes muscles with a strong, long tail in the improving quadrant.

Consumer Discretionary is heading in the opposite direction, moving into lagging territory.

Communication Services is holding onto its relative strength despite losing some momentum.

Financials, Health Care, and Materials are all in the lagging quadrant with negative headings.

Utilities are showing apparent strength, moving into the leading quadrant with gusto.

Spotlight on the Top Five

Let’s get into the trenches and examine each of our top performers:

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC is fulfilling expectations by emerging from its flag consolidation pattern and moving towards new all-time highs. It is also enhancing its standing on price and relative charts, which are bullish indicators of the sector’s ongoing supremacy.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

XLY is indicating some concerning trends. It has established a possible double top, which will be validated if the price falls below $218, the low from five weeks ago. The relative strength line mirrors this formation, and the RRG lines are declining. Considering its earlier strength, a notable decline may take a while to materialize, but it is certainly one to monitor closely.

Financials (XLF)

Financials are holding their ground admirably. Last week saw a break above the previous high on a closing basis — something that didn’t happen in the two weeks prior. The raw RS line also pushes against (and possibly above) its previous high. If this improvement continues, expect Financials to maintain its top-five status.

Technology (XLK)

Tech is making a comeback, overtaking Industrials for the #4 spot. Price-wise, we’re still grappling with overhead resistance around $242, but we closed at the week’s high — a positive sign. The relative strength is moving higher off the lower boundary, and RRG lines continue to climb (with a slight dip in momentum). I’m keeping a close eye on that $242 level — a break above could signal the start of a new leg up for the sector.

Industrials (XLI)

Industrials are living up to our expectations as the weakest link in the top five. It’s dropped from #4 to #5, thanks to continued weakness in relative strength. The RRG lines point lower, suggesting it’s only a matter of time before XLI drops out of the top five. Price-wise, we’re still within the rising channel, but a lower high has formed — not a great sign. Support comes in around $134 (rising support line) and $132-130 (late December low). A break below these levels could trigger a more significant decline.

Portfolio Performance Update

Despite the changing conditions, our RRG portfolio remains robust. Since its inception, it has achieved a 4.88% gain, while the SPY benchmark has only increased by 4.29%, resulting in an outperformance of 59 basis points.

#StayAlert and enjoy your long weekend. –Julius


The first time Brazilian biologist Fernanda Abra saw a Groves’ titi monkey, one of the most 25 endangered primates in the world, it was positioned right next to a road.

“It was totally exposed to road mortality,” recalls Abra.

Although figures vary wildly, by some estimates, 475 million vertebrate animals are killed by vehicles every year in the South American country, which is home to the world’s fourth biggest road network, and the Amazon rainforest.

It’s a problem that Abra, who is a postdoctoral fellow at the Smithsonian’s Center for Conservation and Sustainability, Conservation Biology Institute, has been trying to solve by building bridges at the canopy level, so tree-dwelling species can safely traverse roadways.

Working with local partners including the indigenous Waimiri-Atroari people, who hold important knowledge about the wildlife in their territory in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Roraima, Abra’s Reconecta Project has built more than 30 canopy crossings on the BR-174, a 3,300-kilometer (2,000-mile) highway slicing through the Amazon. In 2024, she was among the winners of the Whitley Fund for Nature Award, which celebrates grassroots conservationists, for her efforts.

Abra hopes the structures can help turn things around for some of Brazil’s vulnerable and endangered species, like the Groves’ titi, the Schneider’s marmoset, and the Guiana Spider Monkey.

Each bridge is fitted with cameras to monitor the animals using it, and those that approach it but turn away, so the structure can be redesigned to convince critters to cross.

“Every time I see the video of the monkey using my canopy bridge, it’s wonderful because we are avoiding the situation of road mortality,” says Abra.

Reconnecting fragments of forest that have been cut apart by human-built infrastructure can have other benefits, like giving animals access to more food resources and potential mates.

“Connecting the population, we can make it stronger and allow it to grow,” says Abra.

That could be crucial as Brazil builds more roads. In 2023, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced plans to spend almost $200 billion on infrastructure, including new highways.

Similar approaches are being put into use across the world. In California, an overpass is under construction above the 10-lane 101 Freeway, that will provide safe passage for animals like mountain lions, coyotes and bobcats.

Abra also has plans for growth. The Reconecta Project is now expanding in Alta Floresta, a city in the west-central state of Mato Grosso, where she’s engaging officials from various government departments and representatives from non-profits and universities, she says. The canopy bridges will be supplemented with measures like speed bumps to slow down traffic and wildlife crossing signs to alert motorists.

She hopes to eventually expand to other areas in Brazil. “What amazes me about Brazil is the richness that we have, the wonderful biodiversity we have here,” says Abra, “and I will do everything that I can as a person, as a professional, as a conservationist and researcher to protect this rich biodiversity.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Sentiment among the nation’s single-family homebuilders dropped to the lowest level in five months in February, largely due to concern over tariffs, which would raise their costs significantly.

The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped a sharp 5 points from January to a reading of 42. Anything below 50 is considered negative sentiment. Last February, the index stood at 48.

“While builders hold out hope for pro-development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty and cost factors created a reset for 2025 expectations in the most recent HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a home builder from Wichita, Kansas.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 4 points to 46, buyer traffic fell 3 points to 29 and sales expectations in the next six months plunged 13 points to 46. That last component hit its lowest level since December 2023.

Builders are already facing elevated mortgage rates. The average rate on the 30-year fixed was over 7% for January and February after earlier being in the 6% range. Home prices are also higher than they were a year ago, weakening affordability further.

While President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico, originally proposed to take effect in early February, were delayed roughly a month, builders are still expecting higher costs.

“With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

Homebuilder sentiment had been gaining steadily since August on the expectation of lower mortgage rates and, as the builders noted, potential pro-development policies. Single-family housing starts are trending lower than they were a year ago, despite a lean supply of existing homes for sale.

The drop in builder sentiment, coming right before the all-important spring market, signals potentially even less supply in the market. Several homebuilders have noted the pullback in buyer demand in recent earnings reports.

“Despite Federal Reserve actions to lower short-term interest rates, mortgage interest rates remained elevated in the fourth quarter, which impacted buyer demand as homebuyers continue to face affordability challenges,” said Ryan Marshall, CEO of PulteGroup, in its fourth-quarter earnings release.

The share of builders lowering prices dropped to 26% in February, down from 30% in January and the lowest share since May 2024. Other sales incentives also fell.

This may be because incentives are becoming less effective at attracting buyers, since high prices and high rates have reduced the pool of buyers for whom these benefits move the needle, according to the NAHB.

When a buyer is solidly priced out, no incentive helps, and with rates remaining higher, the pool of marginal buyers may be shrinking. Offering incentives to buyers who would buy regardless of price or rates is of diminishing value for builders.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

It was another mildly bullish week as our major indices climbed very close to new, fresh all-time highs. We also saw a return to growth stocks as we approached breakout levels, which is a good signal as far as rally sustainability goes. Despite this, there remain reasons to be cautious and I’ll point out a couple of those reasons below.

Negative Divergences

The S&P 500 ($SPX) and NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) both seem to be losing bullish price momentum on their respective weekly charts, which can be seen below:

$SPX

$NDX

The price momentum on both indices is slowing and eerily similar to late 2021, just before the cyclical bear market of 2022. Let me be clear that I do NOT believe we’re heading into a cyclical bear market. I don’t see that extent of potential weakness ahead. I do see increased risks of a 5-10% drop, however, and that’s why I’m cautious.

Is This Current Rally Truly Sustainable?

Sometimes a little common sense and perspective goes a very long way. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has averaged gaining 9% per year. So when you go through short-term periods that show gains well in excess of that 9% average, you should at least be thinking there’s the risk that the S&P 500 will fall back and “reversion to the mean”, which is a mathematical concept that describes the tendency of extreme results to move closer to the average. We’ve seen a tremendous rally since the summer correction of 2023. Let’s look at the last 68 weeks (since the correction low in late-October 2023) of return on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 and compare it to the history of 68-week rates of change (ROC) to gain a sense of this current rally and its sustainability:

$SPX

$NDX

You can look at these two charts and make your own judgement and draw your own conclusions, but, outside of the late-1990s, 68-week ROCs above 50% on the S&P 500 and 60% on the NASDAQ 100 suggest a short-term pullback is more likely, not guaranteed.

Now The Good News

While bullish price action and momentum may seem to be slowing, the long-term monthly PPO on both of these indices is definitely on the rise, which, in my view, limits any short-term downside to the 20-month EMA. I’ll just show the S&P 500 monthly chart, but this will highlight the likelihood that any future selling, if it occurs (no guarantee), holds 20-month EMA support:

$SPX

This chart takes us back 25 years to the turn of the century. The yellow areas highlight poor (below zero) or declining PPOs. During these periods, I’d ignore 20-month EMA support and be cautious. However, the blank periods highlight a rising monthly PPO, during which we rarely see price fall below the rising 20-month EMA. This is where we currently stand. Most pullbacks over the last 25 years, when the monthly PPO is above zero and rising, have fallen short of actual 20-month EMA tests. In other words, we should view a 20-month EMA test as a “worst case” scenario.

The next market decline should be viewed as an OUTSTANDING opportunity to enter this secular bull market.

Stick With Strength

Since we began rolling out our Portfolios quarterly, we’ve had to overcome cyclical bear markets in Q4 2018 (trade war), March 2020 (pandemic), and the first 9-10 months of 2022 (rising inflation and rising interest rates), and a 3-month correction during the summer of 2023. We’ve remained fully invested and have CRUSHED the S&P 500. In fact, below is a graph that highlights our Model Portfolio performance since its inception in November 2018 (in the middle of the trade war!) through the end of January 2025:

We’ve demonstrated the best way to beat the S&P 500, which is to invest in leading relative strength stocks. It’s the only proven method that’s worked for us at EarningsBeats.com. We “draft” our 10 favorite relative strength stocks in various sectors and industry groups and hold them for one entire earnings cycle, then rinse and repeat. Our last quarter’s “draft” picks have annihilated the S&P 500, +15.15% vs. 3.34%.

You can check out our Model Portfolio holdings for the last 3 months below:

8 of our 10 Model Portfolio stocks outperformed the S&P 500, a few by a very wide margin. Owning relative strength stocks like PLTR, CLS, and TPR will completely carry a portfolio and lead to outstanding returns.

Our “quarterly” results are calculated over the following periods:

  • February 19 – May 19
  • May 19 – August 19
  • August 19 – November 19
  • November 19 – February 19

The reason we calculate our quarterly returns using the above time periods is that we select our stocks each quarter on February 19, May 19, August 19, and November 19. By the time we reach these dates, most key market-moving companies have reported their quarterly results and fundamental data like earnings is factored into our portfolio selections just as much as technical considerations. That fundamental/technical combination is one factor that separates us from others and we do this because my background is public accounting. I don’t stray far from my core beliefs. I believe management’s execution of their business strategies/plan and beating revenue and EPS estimates is a huge component of its stock’s upside potential.

On Monday, February 17th, we’re holding our next DRAFT. We will be announcing the 10-equal weighted stocks in each of our portfolios designed to beat the S&P 500 over the next 3-month period. You’re quite welcome to join us. It might change your way of investing and improve your results immediately. CLICK HERE for more information and to register!

Happy trading!

Tom

Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro has been charged in connection with an alleged coup plot to overturn the results of the 2022 election and keep his opponent from taking power, according to documents filed by prosecutors Tuesday evening.

Bolsonaro was among 34 people facing charges including those of armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d’état, and damage qualified by violence.

Prosecutors allege that the plot began in 2021, with an effort to undermine public trust in electronic voting machines.

In 2022, Bolsonaro allegedly met with ambassadors and diplomatic representatives to discuss the accusations of voting fraud “in an attempt to prepare the international community for disrespecting the popular will in the presidential elections,” a statement from the Attorney General’s Office read.

Despite finding no evidence of election fraud, the defendants allegedly continued their campaign to discredit the electoral system, prosecutors said.

They also allege that Bolsonaro approved a plan to carry out the coup, which they say included the death of the elected President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his vice president.

Prosecutors said the last attempt to overturn the election happened on January 8, 2023, when defendants allegedly encouraged groups of Bolsonaro supporters to mobilize in Brasília, where they stormed and vandalized the three seats of government.

In November, Bolsonaro and 36 others were indicted as part of an investigation into the alleged coup plot.

The charges, brought before the Supreme Court in Brasília, could set the stage for a high-profile trial. If the charges are formally accepted by the Supreme Court, those charged will formally become defendants.

To prevent the case from influencing Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections, Supreme Court justices are pushing to conclude the trial before the end of 2025, but it is unlikely the court will announce its decision on whether to take on the case or schedule preliminary hearings before early March.

In the 844-page November indictment, federal police accused Bolsonaro of having “full knowledge” of the alleged coup plan to prevent Lula from taking office, adding that the former president “planned, acted in, and led directly and effectively” the plan.

Bolsonaro denies involvement, telling the Brazilian magazine Veja he “never agreed to any plan.”

In 2023, Bolsonaro was banned from public office for eight years after a separate investigation into alleged abuse of power found him guilty of spreading misinformation about the integrity of the Brazilian election apparatus to foreign governments.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The new year for brick-and-mortar retailers is picking up right where 2024 left off, as a slew of stalwart brands are set to shutter dozens of store locations amid shifting consumer patterns.

The latest crop of closures are being led by fabrics and crafts retailer Joann, which said this week it was shuttering 500 locations in 49 states as part of a second go-around in Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

“This was a very difficult decision to make, given the major impact we know it will have on our team members, our customers and all of the communities we serve,’ the company said in a statement. ‘A careful analysis of store performance and future strategic fit for the company determined which stores should remain operating as usual at this time. Right-sizing our store footprint is a critical part of our efforts to ensure the best path forward for Joann.”

Joann first filed for bankruptcy protection last March to address a heavy debt load, shrinking revenues and what it described as an “uncertain consumer environment.” It announced another Chapter 11 filing last month, this time with the goal of finding an entity to acquire all of its assets.

‘The last several years have presented significant and lasting challenges in the retail environment, which, coupled with our current financial position and constrained inventory levels, forced us to take this step,’ it said in a release accompanying its latest filing.

Meanwhile, JCPenney separately said this week it was closing a handful of stores, with an initial batch of eight to go under depending on “expiring lease agreements” and “market changes.” 

“While we do not have plans to significantly reduce our store count, we expect a handful of JCPenney stores to close by mid-year,” the company said in a statement.

JCPenney emerged from bankruptcy in 2020; last month, it announced it was merging with the group that operates other retail brands, including Aéropostale and Brooks Brothers.

In the first nine months of its current fiscal year, JCPenney’s adjusted earnings tumbled nearly 64% to $66 million.

Those results reflect an overall physical retail environment that continues to deteriorate. According to Coresight Research, as many as 15,000 retail locations could close this year, nearly doubling the count for 2024, which were already the most since 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Inflation and a growing preference among consumers to shop online to find the cheapest deals took a toll on brick-and-mortar retailers in 2024,” Coresight Research CEO Deborah Weinswig said in a release last month. “Last year we saw the highest number of closures since the pandemic. Retailers that were unable to adapt supply chains and implement technology to cut costs were significantly impacted, and we continue to see a trend of consumers opting for the path of least resistance.’

She said customers are running out of patience for stores that are ‘constantly disorganized, out of stock, and that deliver poor customer service.’

‘We have seen Shein and Temu capture market share as consumers choose to shop online to save time, money, and avoid frustration,’ she said.

In the first weeks of 2025, Coresight was already tracking about 30% fewer openings and more than triple the number of closures compared with the same period last year.

Other closures announced late last year or planned for 2025 include Party City, Big Lots, Kohl’s and Macy’s.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

It was another mildly bullish week as our major indices climbed very close to new, fresh all-time highs. We also saw a return to growth stocks as we approached breakout levels, which is a good signal as far as rally sustainability goes. Despite this, there remain reasons to be cautious and I’ll point out a couple of those reasons below.

Negative Divergences

The S&P 500 ($SPX) and NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) both seem to be losing bullish price momentum on their respective weekly charts, which can be seen below:

$SPX

$NDX

The price momentum on both indices is slowing and eerily similar to late 2021, just before the cyclical bear market of 2022. Let me be clear that I do NOT believe we’re heading into a cyclical bear market. I don’t see that extent of potential weakness ahead. I do see increased risks of a 5-10% drop, however, and that’s why I’m cautious.

Is This Current Rally Truly Sustainable?

Sometimes a little common sense and perspective goes a very long way. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has averaged gaining 9% per year. So when you go through short-term periods that show gains well in excess of that 9% average, you should at least be thinking there’s the risk that the S&P 500 will fall back and “reversion to the mean”, which is a mathematical concept that describes the tendency of extreme results to move closer to the average. We’ve seen a tremendous rally since the summer correction of 2023. Let’s look at the last 68 weeks (since the correction low in late-October 2023) of return on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 and compare it to the history of 68-week rates of change (ROC) to gain a sense of this current rally and its sustainability:

$SPX

$NDX

You can look at these two charts and make your own judgement and draw your own conclusions, but, outside of the late-1990s, 68-week ROCs above 50% on the S&P 500 and 60% on the NASDAQ 100 suggest a short-term pullback is more likely, not guaranteed.

Now The Good News

While bullish price action and momentum may seem to be slowing, the long-term monthly PPO on both of these indices is definitely on the rise, which, in my view, limits any short-term downside to the 20-month EMA. I’ll just show the S&P 500 monthly chart, but this will highlight the likelihood that any future selling, if it occurs (no guarantee), holds 20-month EMA support:

$SPX

This chart takes us back 25 years to the turn of the century. The yellow areas highlight poor (below zero) or declining PPOs. During these periods, I’d ignore 20-month EMA support and be cautious. However, the blank periods highlight a rising monthly PPO, during which we rarely see price fall below the rising 20-month EMA. This is where we currently stand. Most pullbacks over the last 25 years, when the monthly PPO is above zero and rising, have fallen short of actual 20-month EMA tests. In other words, we should view a 20-month EMA test as a “worst case” scenario.

The next market decline should be viewed as an OUTSTANDING opportunity to enter this secular bull market.

Stick With Strength

Since we began rolling out our Portfolios quarterly, we’ve had to overcome cyclical bear markets in Q4 2018 (trade war), March 2020 (pandemic), and the first 9-10 months of 2022 (rising inflation and rising interest rates), and a 3-month correction during the summer of 2023. We’ve remained fully invested and have CRUSHED the S&P 500. In fact, below is a graph that highlights our Model Portfolio performance since its inception in November 2018 (in the middle of the trade war!) through the end of January 2025:

We’ve demonstrated the best way to beat the S&P 500, which is to invest in leading relative strength stocks. It’s the only proven method that’s worked for us at EarningsBeats.com. We “draft” our 10 favorite relative strength stocks in various sectors and industry groups and hold them for one entire earnings cycle, then rinse and repeat. Our last quarter’s “draft” picks have annihilated the S&P 500, +15.15% vs. 3.34%.

You can check out our Model Portfolio holdings for the last 3 months below:

8 of our 10 Model Portfolio stocks outperformed the S&P 500, a few by a very wide margin. Owning relative strength stocks like PLTR, CLS, and TPR will completely carry a portfolio and lead to outstanding returns.

Our “quarterly” results are calculated over the following periods:

  • February 19 – May 19
  • May 19 – August 19
  • August 19 – November 19
  • November 19 – February 19

The reason we calculate our quarterly returns using the above time periods is that we select our stocks each quarter on February 19, May 19, August 19, and November 19. By the time we reach these dates, most key market-moving companies have reported their quarterly results and fundamental data like earnings is factored into our portfolio selections just as much as technical considerations. That fundamental/technical combination is one factor that separates us from others and we do this because my background is public accounting. I don’t stray far from my core beliefs. I believe management’s execution of their business strategies/plan and beating revenue and EPS estimates is a huge component of its stock’s upside potential.

On Monday, February 17th, we’re holding our next DRAFT. We will be announcing the 10-equal weighted stocks in each of our portfolios designed to beat the S&P 500 over the next 3-month period. You’re quite welcome to join us. It might change your way of investing and improve your results immediately. CLICK HERE for more information and to register!

Happy trading!

Tom