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January 12, 2025

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Week Ahead: NIFTY Steps Into Next Week With These Two Negative Technical Developments

4 Mins Read

The markets extended their decline over the past five sessions and ended the week on a negative note. While the week started on a bearish note, the Nifty violated a few key levels on higher and lower time frame charts. Along with the weak undercurrent, the trading range widened again as the Nifty moved in a 745-point range. The volatility spiked up, and India Vix surged 10.16% to 14.91 on a weekly basis. Following a thoroughly bearish undertone, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 573.25 points (-2.39%).

The week that has gone by has remained important from a technical perspective. The Nifty started the week by violating the 200-DMA placed at 23940 and has closed significantly below this crucial level. On the weekly charts, the Nifty has breached another critical level of 50-week MA, currently at 23659. In the process, the Nifty has dragged its resistance points lower; any technical rebound will find resistance at this point. It is important to note that the 50-week MA has been violated after three retests, and the breach of this level will have bearish considerations for the markets. Unless the Nifty crosses above this level again, it will stay vulnerable to a prolonged phase of weakness.

Monday is likely to see the Nifty beginning on a soft note; the levels of 23650 and 23880 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports come in at 23300 and 23050 levels.

The weekly RSI is 43.53; it has marked a new 14-period low, which is bearish. The RSI also shows a bearish divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below the signal line. The widening Histogram hints at accelerated momentum on the downside.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows Nifty completing a painful process of mean reversion by finding support at the 50-week MA in November. Since then, it has retested this level three times and has breached it by closing below this crucial level. The 50-week MA is placed at 23659; so long as the Index stays below this point, it remains vulnerable to an extended period of weakness in the near term.

Over the past week, the technical developments have created a strong resistance zone for the Nifty between 23650-24000 level. So long as the Index stays below this zone, it will likely trade with a weak undercurrent. Given the current technical setup, cutting down on leveraged exposures and keeping them at modest levels is extremely important. While initiating fresh exposures, staying in the stocks with strong or improving Relative Strength will be necessary as that would provide resilience to the investments. While staying highly selective, a highly cautious outlook is recommended for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that Nifty Bank, Services Sector, Nifty Financial Services, and Nifty IT indices are inside the leading quadrant. Barring the Nifty IT index, all others are seen giving up on their relative momentum. The Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and may relatively outperform the broader markets.

The Nifty Pharma Index stays inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. Along with the Media, PSE, Energy, and Commodities, it is likely to underperform the broader markets relatively. The Infrastructure, Auto, FMCG, and Consumption Indices are in the lagging quadrant but are improving their relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty index is well placed inside the improving quadrant. The PSU Bank Index is also inside the improving quadrant, but it is seen paring its relative momentum against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

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In World news

Former ‘Kiddy Kapers’ TV star died when California wildfires ripped through Malibu estate, mother says

2 Mins Read

A former child star from Australia died when the Los Angeles wildfires ripped through his family’s Malibu estate in California earlier this week, according to his mother.

Rory Callum Sykes was at the family’s 17-acre Mount Malibu TV Studios estate, where he had his own cottage, when it burned down on January 8, his mother Shelley Sykes wrote on X Thursday.

Shelley Sykes described her son, who appeared on the 1998 British TV series “Kiddy Kapers,” as “beautiful” and “wonderful” and said she was “totally heart broken” by his death.

She said she had tried to put out the wildfire cinders on her property’s roof using a hose but couldn’t because the water wasn’t working.

“He said, ‘mom leave me’ and no mom can leave their kid. And I’ve got a broken arm, I couldn’t lift him, I couldn’t move him,” Sykes told Australia’s 10 News First.

Her son, 32, was born blind with cerebral palsy on July 29, 1992, and had become famous for his speeches on overcoming disability. He was the co-founder of Happy Charity, which according to its site offers, “Hope, Happiness & Health to those that are Hurting.”

“He overcame so much with surgeries and therapies to regain his sight and to be able to learn to walk. Despite the pain, he still enthused about traveling the world with me from Africa to Antarctica,” Shelley Sykes wrote on X.

She said her son was born in Britain but lived in Australia, then America. He was “a gift born on mine and his grandma’s birthday,” she wrote.

On his website, Sykes describes himself as a professional speaker and consultant for many companies including the Tony Robbins Foundation, and the Cerebral Palsy Alliance.

In an appearance with his mother on Australian television show “Mornings with Kerri-Anne” in 2003, he discussed going on a trip to the United States to speak at a Tony Robbins motivational conference.

“It doesn’t matter what happens to you in life, it’s what you do about it that counts,” he told viewers.

“The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is providing consular assistance to his family. Our thoughts are with them,” DFAT told 9News. “Owing to our privacy obligations we are unable to provide further comment.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

Disney, Fox, Warner Bros. Discovery call off Venu sports streaming service

3 Mins Read

Disney, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery have called off plans to launch their sports streaming service, Venu, the companies said in a joint statement Friday.

“After careful consideration, we have collectively agreed to discontinue the Venu Sports joint venture and not launch the streaming service,” they said in the statement. “In an ever-changing marketplace, we determined that it was best to meet the evolving demands of sports fans by focusing on existing products and distribution channels. We are proud of the work that has been done on Venu to date and grateful to the Venu staff, whom we will support through this transition period.”

Venu was first announced in February and intended to combine the live sports assets of Fox, WBD and Disney-owned ESPN. It was initially slated to launch before the start of the NFL season in September, but was delayed in part by a legal challenge from internet TV bundler Fubo, which claimed the platform would be anticompetitive.

Together Disney, Fox and WBD control more than 50% of all U.S. sports media rights, and at least 60% of all nationally broadcast U.S. sports rights, according to the judge on the antitrust case.

The news that it would not launch came as a shock to Venu employees, who found out late Thursday night, according to people familiar with the matter. They believed they had a pathway forward to launch the service after Disney agreed earlier this week to merge its Hulu+ Live TV with Fubo, settling all litigation over Venu.

But the judge’s response in Fubo’s lawsuit questioned the legality of cable bundling in general, prompting Disney to strike the deal with Fubo, through which Disney would take 70% control of the resulting company. And two days ago, satellite providers DirecTV and Dish sent letters to federal court arguing that the legal questions brought up by the judge remained unanswered.

Rather than risk an extended lawsuit that could jeopardize bundling in general — including Disney’s efforts to bundle its own streaming entities (ESPN, Hulu and Disney+) — the three companies decided to pull the plug on Venu, according to people familiar with the company’s decisions.

Warner Bros. Discovery’s business model relies heavily on negotiating bundled carriage agreements for its many cable networks, including CNN, TNT, HGTV and Food Network.

Disney is targeting a debut of ESPN “Flagship,” an all-inclusive ESPN streaming service, for August 2025. The still unnamed ESPN streaming service will including everything that airs on ESPN’s linear network, unlike ESPN+.

Disney’s deal with Fubo, along with the company’s recent carriage renewal with DirecTV, also gives the company new ways to package so-called skinny bundles — narrower selections of channels for less money. This was the idea behind Venu: selling a smaller number of linear channels for less money than traditional cable TV.

Disclosure: Comcast, which owns CNBC parent NBCUniversal, is a co-owner of Hulu.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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