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December 2024

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Will the Stock Market’s Santa Rally Bring Holiday Cheer to Investors?

6 Mins Read

A smart investor listens to the stock market and this week’s stock market action was a perfect example of why this is important. 

It was a roller-coaster week in the stock markets leading many investors to quickly sell holdings when there was a big selloff and scramble to go long again on Friday when the broader stock market indexes turned higher. This is why it’s a good idea to always look at a longer time frame chart to get a sense of the long-term trend before making hasty decisions. 

If you pull up a weekly chart of any of the three major indexes you’ll see that the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trending higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is also doing the same but it’s just hanging in there by a whisker.

The Ups and Downs

Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday sent investors into selloff mode which spilled over into Thursday. But Friday’s slightly lighter-than-expected November PCE may have reversed investor sentiment. The broader stock market indexes moved higher spreading some holiday cheer to an otherwise gloomy week. 

What made the market move higher? It doesn’t make sense to look for a reason for the reversal in sentiment. Remember, it’s best to listen to the market and follow along. That said, a few interesting data points are worth noting.

The Federal Reserve indicated their focus was on a cooling of the labor market in their last few meetings. However, Wednesday’s comments from Chairman Powell suggested that the labor market is doing fine now but the Fed’s focus has switched to inflation. That may have made investors nervous and triggered the massive selling we witnessed on Wednesday. Friday’s light November PCE may have been a sigh of relief that brought back the optimistic sentiment. 

Despite the optimistic sentiment, one important news we can’t lose sight of is the possibility of a US government shutdown. A shutdown doesn’t necessarily impact the stock market but there may be inconveniences such as a reduction in government services that may send ripples through the economy.

The Year-End Party

As 2024 winds down, there will likely be very light trading days but there are some important events that unfold at the end of the year. There’s the January Effect which is when small-cap stocks start rallying. Small-cap stocks got a boost post US election but since late November they’ve been sliding lower. The daily chart of iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) shows the small-cap trend is still bearish. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF IWM. Small cap stocks took a big hit in December. Look for the full stochastic oscillator to cross above the 20 level with some follow-through to confirm their seasonal rally. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The full stochastic oscillator is deep in oversold territory and a cross above the 20 level would be encouraging for small-cap stocks. But there needs to be follow-through for the small caps to have a bullish rally.  

In addition to the January Effect, there’s the eagerly awaited Santa Claus rally, which is supposed to start next week. Friday’s price action may have reignited the possibility of having Santa show up this year. But I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet. 

If you look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, you’ll see that the three market breadth indicators displayed in the lower panels had started declining in late November, which should have signaled that the market was ripe for a selloff.

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 HOLDS ON TO SUPPORT. Friday’s price action may look slightly bullish but it needs more follow-through to confirm a reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What is concerning is that Friday’s price action didn’t change the market breadth narrative. So even though Friday’s rise was sizeable, with a bullish engulfing pattern that closed at the 50-day simple moving average, I wouldn’t rush to buy the dip just yet and certainly not on triple-witching Friday. For all you know, there could have been some short-covering going on. I’ll need to see more follow-through of the upside move before adding more positions to my portfolio. At least the S&P 500 stayed above the support of its mid-November lows.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW) vs. the S&P 500 gives you an idea of how dominant the heavily weighted stocks influence the index.

FIGURE 3: S&P 500 VS S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX. The less-heavy weighted stocks in the S&P 500 are lagging the S&P 500. The equal-weighted index is trading below its 100-day moving average and has a long way to go before re-establishing its uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

$SPXEW is trading below its 100-day SMA. Note that Friday’s high came close to the 100-day SMA. A close above the 100-day SMA would be the first sign of a trend reversal in the equal-weighted index. But one day’s action doesn’t make a trend. A series of higher highs and higher lows needs to be established before a trend has indeed reversed. It would be more confirming if the non-Mag Seven stocks showed signs of catching up with the big S&P 500 index.

Volatility Pulls Back 

One encouraging point to end the week is the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed below 20 (see chart below). Investors were getting so complacent towards the end of November but if you had noticed the VIX creeping higher, you’d have seen the selloff coming. 

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX). The VIX was at very low levels from November but it slowly started moving higher signaling that investors were getting fearful. This led to Wednesday’s spike. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The pattern in the chart of the VIX shows that a similar pattern occurred from June to July, right before the August spike. Could a similar scenario unfold this time?

The Mark Twain quote, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” explains it so well. So as you navigate the stock market, listen to the rhythm and follow its lead. 

The bottom line: Set up your Dashboard panels on the StockCharts platform and get a bird’s eye view of the stock market.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 1.99% for the week, at 5930.85, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.25% for the week at 42,840.26; Nasdaq Composite down 1.78% for the week at 19,572.60
  • $VIX up 32.95% for the week, closing at 18.36.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Reddit Inc. (RDDT); Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • November Durable Goods Orders
  • November New Home Sales
  • October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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After years of war, 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees’ lives are still mired in uncertainty

5 Mins Read

She arrived in London with just one suitcase, full of mostly children’s clothes, and her young daughter in tow. Her home engulfed by war, Ukrainian mother Yana Felos found herself in the United Kingdom in April 2022 with no friends, no family and no community.

“I just started a new life from scratch,” recalled Felos, 34, who fled Russia’s full-scale invasion to come live with a host family – strangers at the time – who offered to take in Ukrainian refugees.

After close to three years of war, the situation has flipped. Felos says she has nothing to return to in Ukraine.

Felos’ last connection to Ukraine was her husband – but he could not leave and after she was abroad for so long, they recently finalized their divorce.

“He kept saying that the war would be over… wait a little, wait a little. The war will be over soon, and we will be together,” Felos said. But she gave up hope a long time ago that Ukraine would ever be safe enough to raise a family there.

Felos and her daughter are among the 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees who remain abroad, mostly in Europe, their lives mired in uncertainty.

Every day, she thinks about what will happen if the British government doesn’t extend her refugee visa in 2025. “There is no such thing as a backup plan,” she said.

Yana Felos and her 6-year-old daughter Alisa pictured in London, where they are building a new life after fleeing Ukraine shortly after the Russian invasion.
courtesy Yana Felos

Meanwhile, she has been building a life in London – securing her own apartment and a job teaching English at a lifelong learning center. Post-divorce, she has no intention of returning to Ukraine and wants to focus instead on opportunities to give her 6-year-old daughter Alisa a brighter future.

As communities become more fragmented, and the economy struggles, the Ukrainian government wants to encourage those who fled as refugees, most of them women and children, to return. It’s setting up a Ministry of National Unity tasked with creating programs and incentives to encourage people overseas to come home.

“We can’t pressure, push people to come back. I can give very loud message to Ukrainians who are abroad to come and help, to work in defense industry, to help our soldiers, to pay taxes, to support Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an October press conference.

It comes as Ukraine grapples with boosting national morale, among both civilians and troops on the frontlines, many who have been unable to rotate out to have time off.

Last month, Zelensky spoke about the need to end the conflict in 2025, saying, “from our side, we must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.” Incoming Trump administration officials in the United States have also been weighing proposals to stop the war.

As it drags on, though, Ukraine appears increasingly concerned about the economic consequences of a hollowed-out population, and the future ramifications of a brain-drain.

“Every month of the ‘hot’ phase of the war leads to more people adapting abroad and more destruction here, so fewer people will return,” said Ella Libanova, an economics professor and director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

And in the nearer term, it’s possible that more Ukrainians could leave.

The overall security situation remains difficult, with Ukraine hit by a recent surge in Russian ballistic missile strikes, and drone attacks increasing each month. Russia launched 2,434 drones in November alone.

On one of her return visits to see her former husband in Ukraine, Felos recalls telling her daughter that the sounds of nearby explosions were fireworks.

Russia also continues to bombard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter arrives and residential areas are regularly hit. The Kyiv School of Economics estimates that as of January 2024, almost 250,000 buildings had been damaged and destroyed, including 222,600 private houses and 27,000 apartment buildings. In a significant number of cities, more than half the housing stock has been damaged.

Even so, many Ukrainians are aching to go back.

For some, the life they once built in Ukraine feels too substantial to simply abandon. People saved their whole lives to buy homes, build businesses and get professional qualifications there.

“It’s been called the most professional refugee wave in recent (history),” Voronovych said, adding that most are now underemployed, working “low-paid jobs” that don’t match their capabilities.

For some Ukrainians, the decision to return has less to do with economics or government incentives, and everything to do with the practicalities of everyday life – mothers are waiting for schools to reopen, or for schools operating underground to protect students from Russian attacks to return to normal.

Victoria Rybka, 40, from the city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, spent the first few weeks of the war sheltering in a basement with her two young children, before fleeing with them to Europe. But in Germany, one of her daughters struggled to communicate in school, and her other daughter developed a skin condition, believed to be stress-related.

Just two months later, Rybka decided to return, feeling a pull to return to her job in the police force and to her family.

“I can’t leave my husband. We’ve been through a lot together,” Rybka said.

Kharkiv was eerily empty at the time, with mostly men and elderly people who stayed behind, she said. Only one other mother in their block of flats came back in the early days of war, but more have since trickled home as schools reopened underground.

“Everyone makes their own choice,” she acknowledged. “I made my choice – this is my home.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

Party City to close all of its stores, report says

2 Mins Read

Party City on Friday announced it will close all of its stores and has initiated corporate layoffs effective immediately, according to a CNN report.

CEO Barry Litwin told corporate employees in a meeting viewed by CNN that Party City has to “commence a winddown process immediately,” and that Friday would be their last day of work for the company.

“That is without question the most difficult message that I’ve ever had to deliver,” Litwin said at the meeting, according to the report.

CNN reported the company’s closure was due to ongoing financial challenges at the party supply retailer, which less than two years ago filed for bankruptcy protection over its inability to pay off $1.7 billion in debt.

The New Jersey-based chain exited bankruptcy in September 2023 through a plan that included transitioning into a privately held company and canceling nearly $1 billion in debt. A majority of its 800 U.S. stores were able to stay open as it emerged from bankruptcy.

Litwin was named CEO in August and said at the time he saw “many opportunities to strengthen our financial performance and build a leading end-to-end celebration experience for consumers,” according to a press release. 

Prior to his appointment, he was the CEO of Global Industrial Company, a distribution leader in industrial products.

Competition in the party goods and costume space has grown in recent years, including Spirit Halloween’s continued rise within and outside of the spooky season. The holiday costume chain announced in October that it would open 10 new “Spirit Christmas” stores, with some of the stores being converted from existing Spirit Halloween locations.

Online retailers have also added pressure to Party City’s operation, even as the company began to offer items on Amazon in 2018.

Representatives for Party City did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on CNN’s report or potential story closures. Read the full CNN report here.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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2024’s Big Bang: A Deeper Dive Into the Hindenburg Omen

5 Mins Read

This week saw the fabled Hindenburg Omen generate its first major sell signal in three years, suggesting the endless bull market of 2024 may soon indeed be ending. Why is this indicator so widely followed, and what does this confirmed signal tell us about market conditions going into Q1? First, let’s break down the conditions that led to this rare but powerful bearish indicator.

Major Tops Tend to Have Consistent Patterns

Strategist Jim Miekka created the Hindenburg Omen in 2010 after analyzing key market tops through market history. What consistent patterns and signals tended to occur leading into these market peaks? He boiled it all down to three key factors which were consistently present:

  1. The broad equity markets are in an uptrend
  2. At least 2.5% of NYSE listings are making a new 52-week high and at least 2.5% are making new 52-week lows on the same day
  3. The McClellan Oscillator breaks below the zero level

One final step involves observing these three conditions occur at least two times within one month. Looking at the chart, we can see that this completed Hindenburg Omen signal has only occurred three times since 2019: in February 2020, going into the COVID peak, in December 2021, just before the 2022 bear market, and in December 2024.

What strikes me about this initial look at the indicator is that from a technical perspective, 2024 and 2021 have been remarkably similar. Both years featured long-term uptrends with minimal drawdowns and low volatility.  So does that mean we are heading into another 2022 and a 9-month bear market for stocks? Not necessarily.

Trend-Following Techniques Can Help Improve Accuracy

Switching to a weekly chart, we can bring in much more history to consider. I’ve added red vertical lines to indicate any time we registered a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal with at least two observations within one month.

Reviewing some of the recent market tops, we can see that this indicator did remarkably well in identifying topping conditions in 2021, 2020, and 2018. Going back even further, you’ll notice signals around the 2007 and 2000 peaks as well.  But what about all the other signals that were not followed by a major decline?

People have quipped that the Hindenburg Omen have “signalled ten out of the last five corrections,” referencing the “false alarm” signals that did not actually play out. I would argue that the key with indicators like this is to combine them with trend-following approaches, similar to how I approach bearish momentum divergences.

When I see a bearish divergence between price and RSI or observe any other leading indicators like the Hindenburg Omen flash a sell signal, it doesn’t tell me to blindly take action! What it does tell me is to be on high alert and look for signs of distribution that could serve to confirm a bearish rotation. By patiently waiting for confirmation, we can improve our success rate and take action only when the charts compel us to do so!

S&P 5850 Remains the Level to Watch

So where does that leave us in December 2024?  While Wednesday’s post-Fed drop certainly represented a significant short-term distribution pattern, the longer-term trends for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still quite constructive.

The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average this week for the first time since September. And while Wednesday and Thursday both saw the SPX close below the 50-day, Friday’s rally on improved inflation data took the major equity index right back above this key short-term barometer.

SPX 5850 has been my “line in the sand” since the November pullback, and as long as price remains above this threshold, I’m inclined to consider this market innocent until proven guilty. And given the normal end-of-the-year window dressing common with money managers, I would not be surprised if the Magnificent 7 stocks and other large-cap growth names remain strong enough to keep the benchmarks in decent shape into year-end.

But indicators like the Hindenburg Omen certainly have caused me to dust off the bull market top checklist, looking for signs of distribution that would imply further weakness. One of my mentors and long-time StockCharts contributor Greg Morris once quipped, “All new highs are bullish… except the last one.”  I’m wondering if that early December high around 6100 may be the last one for a while!

One last thing…

I recently sat down virtually with author and technical analyst Chris Vermeulen to discuss the benefits of following asset flows, the dangers of holding dividend paying stocks during bear markets, how to navigate a potential breakdown in crude oil and energy stocks, and how investing and surfing are more alike than you might think!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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What we know about the suspect behind the German Christmas market attack

3 Mins Read

A driver who rammed a car into a crowded Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg, killing at least five people and injuring more than 200, has been identified by authorities as a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian citizen who had lived in Germany for more than a decade and worked as a doctor.

Authorities are working to determine the motive of the attacker, who had a history of making anti-Islam statements and said that he had helped people, particularly women, flee Saudi Arabia.

The suspect first came to Germany in 2006 and had permanent residency in the country, according to Tamara Zieschang, the interior minister of Saxony-Anhalt state, of which Magdenburg is the capital. Zieschang said the man worked as a doctor in Bernburg, a small town about 25 miles south of Magdeburg.

The man is yet to be formally identified, but German media have named him as Taleb A., following the convention in Germany of withholding the full name of suspects in criminal cases.

He was arrested and is thought to have acted alone, according to German authorities.

In a now deleted feed on X apparently belonging to Taleb A., he made anti-Islam statements and self-identified as a Saudi dissident. He spoke openly about renouncing his Islamic faith, expressed sympathy for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and accused Germany of promoting the Islamization of the country.

Germany welcomed more than 1 million refugees and asylum seekers in 2015 and 2016, mostly from the Middle East. Originally praised for opening its doors, Germany has seen support wane for the policy with the rise of the anti-migrant AfD.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the attack after it emerged the suspect was a Saudi national.

The first warning came in 2007 and was connected to concerns held by Saudi authorities that Taleb A. had expressed radical views of varying kinds, the source said.

Saudi Arabia considers the suspect a fugitive and requested his extradition from Germany between 2007 and 2008, the source said, adding that German authorities refused, citing concerns for the man’s safety should he return.

Saudi authorities alleged that the man had harassed Saudis abroad who opposed his political views. They also noted that he had become a supporter of the AfD, and had developed radical anti-Islamic views, the source said.

The German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser on Saturday described the man as “an Islamophobe.” She gave few other details and said that the investigation was at the very beginning, with security authorities looking into the background of the attack. The authorities have not yet released any information about a motive.

Taleb A. appears to be the same man who was in touch with media in the past about his efforts to help people leave Saudi Arabia.

Some experts have already pointed out that the man was an unusual suspect in a mass casualty attack of this type.

“After 25 years in this ‘business’ you think nothing could surprise you anymore. But a 50-year-old Saudi ex-Muslim who lives in East Germany, loves the AfD and wants to punish Germany for its tolerance towards Islamists — that really wasn’t on my radar,” Peter Neumann, professor of security studies at King’s College London, wrote on X.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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AI Boom Meets Tariff Doom: How to Time Semiconductor Stocks

6 Mins Read

Semiconductors are at a crossroads, with innovation fueling growth and tariffs threatening profits.  How might you navigate this potentially volatile landscape and identify opportunities without getting burned?

In 2025, analysts predict AI will drive explosive demand in the semiconductor industry, fueling innovation and revenue growth. At the same time, this optimism is tempered by the new administration’s tariff policies, which threaten to disrupt global supply chains, increase costs, and reshape the competitive landscape for chipmakers.

This tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forecasts is best exemplified by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) price action, a reliable proxy for the semiconductor industry. Here’s a weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMH. Congestion narrowing within a wider trading range may indicate that bulls and bears are in temporary equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers showing enough conviction to drive a decisive breakout or breakdown. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There’s a narrowing, range-bound movement between its all-time high near $283 and the swing low of $280 (see blue dotted lines). The increasingly tight congestion range over the last three months, as highlighted by the magenta rectangle, suggests increased indecision among bulls and bears. Despite the temporary standstill, semiconductor stocks are outperforming their tech sector peers (see price performance against XLK) by only 29% and the S&P 500 by 51%.

While AI chip demand will likely see significant growth in the future, the effects of tariffs and reshoring may bring sharp and near-term pain to most chipmakers, particularly semiconductor companies that are most reliant on Asian production. Domestic chipmakers with minimal reliance on overseas manufacturing may fare better under these conditions.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at SMH’s top three holdings—NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)—all of which play a leading role in AI chip development, but have different levels of reliance in the global chip supply chain.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS COMPARING SMH AGAINST ITS TOP THREE HOLDINGS. Note the late jump in AVGO. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

All three of SMH’s top holdings are outperforming their industry peers with NVDA on top, TSM second, and AVGO third. Understanding that late jump in AVGO might require some context (which we’ll get into later).

  • NVDA is the world’s AI chip leader.
  • TSM, is the world’s top chip foundry, and main producer of NVDA’s GPUs.
  • AVGO is a diversified supplier of data center components which are the backbone of AI infrastructure. Unlike NVDA, its business model is less exposed to reshoring effects.

NVIDIA (NVDA): The AI Semiconductor Leader

Take a look at the rounding top pattern on the daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NVDA. Rounding tops are bearish, but tend to break higher more than 50% of the time. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

According to Thomas Bulkowski’s Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, while rounding tops are typically viewed as bearish, more than half the time they break upwards, challenging that assumption. In many cases, the rim on the right is higher than the one on the left. In the case above, the rim is formed by a price bounce off the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). 

Both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are likely to act as strong support unless there is a significant change in the chipmaker’s fundamentals. While NVDA’s uptrend remains intact, momentum seems to be weakening as suggested by the decline in the money flow index (MFI). Keep an eye on this development, especially if it breaks below the 100-day SMA and bounces off the 200-day SMA.

Next, let’s take a look at NVDA’s main chip foundry: TSM.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM): The Foundry

TSM’s daily chart doesn’t look too different from NVDA’s. Remember, TSM is NVDA’s main chip foundry, and so NVDA is highly dependent on TSM (rather than the other way around).

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF TSM. The stock’s price is chugging along with plenty of support. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

You can see the difference between the stock’s volatile rise in price against a gradual decline in the RSI. TSM’s recent price action over the last three months has succumbed to this drop in bullish momentum. 

The stock is reacting strongly to the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a high likelihood of bouncing off these levels again should price continue to decline from the current levels.

Broadcom (AVGO): A More Diversified AI and Semiconductor  Play

Broadcom also uses TSM’s foundry services, but it has a few other foundries in Asia and Europe. Because of its wide range of products and its focus on data centers, AVGO is more diversified and less exposed to the same supply chain risks as NVDA. Perhaps this (plus the company’s optimistic 2025 revenue projection) is why its shares have recently outperformed the other two companies above, hitting an all-time high in late December. 

Let’s take a look at AVGO’s daily chart.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF AVGO. The December gap followed strong company guidance. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AVGO’s uptrend going back to November 2023 runs a similar course to NVDA and TSM. Its uptrend experienced some moments of volatility yet remained relatively sold. Its price fluctuations also reacted strongly to both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, finding support with both.

However, unlike our previous examples, momentum as measured by the RSI appears steady and somewhat cyclical. To get a clearer view of momentum with volume, I added the On Balance Volume (OBV) with a 50-day SMA overlay which shows that buying pressure has steadily been increasing, fueling AVGO’s ascent, and culminating in the bullish jump in December.

Whether or not price falls to fill the gap, you might wait for RSI to dip below the 50-line to better time an entry if you’re looking to go long.

At the Close

The semiconductor industry faces a dynamic and uncertain 2025, with AI demand poised to spur growth while tariff talks threaten to reshape global supply chains and profit margins. Keeping an eye on SMH and monitoring its top holdings—NVDA, TSM, and AVGO—for shifts in momentum and action at key levels is critical if you’re looking to time your trades in this promising space. 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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At least one dead after car plows into German Christmas market, public broadcaster says

1 Min Read

At least one person has died after a car plowed into a crowd at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, police have said, according to local public broadcaster MDR.

Several people have also been injured, MDR reported, citing police.

In the video, dozens of people are crowded at the market stalls when the vehicle plows directly into them. Some people can be seen running away from the car in panic, others dive into the stalls.

Bodies and debris are scattered across the narrow lane as the car turns out of the plaza.

Extensive police measures are currently in place at the scene, Magdeburg police said in a post on X.

MDR reported that the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Reiner Haseloff, is on his way to Magdeburg, which is west of Berlin.

Magdeburg is the state capital of Saxony-Anhalt and has a population of about 240,000.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Starbucks union announces strike to last through Christmas Eve in 3 major cities

3 Mins Read

Love Starbucks holiday drinks? This week, you may not get them.

Starbucks Workers United announced baristas will strike starting Friday in three key markets — Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago. 

The union said the move is in response to the coffee chain’s “failure to bring viable economic proposals to the bargaining table” and “to resolve hundreds of outstanding unfair labor practice charges.”

The union, which started organizing in 2021, represents 525 union stores and over 10,500 union workers, according to its website. Starbucks has nearly 10,000 company-owned U.S. stores, The Associated Press reports.

“Since February, Starbucks has repeatedly pledged publicly that they intended to reach contracts by the end of the year — but they’ve yet to present workers with a serious economic proposal,” the group wrote on X. “This week, less than two weeks before their end-of-year deadline, Starbucks proposed no immediate wage increase for union baristas, and a guarantee of only 1.5% wage increases in future years.”

The group said baristas starting Friday morning will embark on five days of escalating strikes that could spread to other cities through Christmas Eve “unless Starbucks honors our commitment to work towards a foundational framework.”

Starbucks, which is headquartered in Seattle, Washington, told NBC News there has been “no significant impact” to its store operations. 

“We are aware of disruption at a small handful of stores, but the overwhelming majority of our US stores remain open and serving customers as normal,” the company said.

In a Tuesday press release the union said it and Starbucks had announced a path forward earlier this year and have advanced dozens of tentative agreements at the table, but “Starbucks has yet to bring a comprehensive economic package to the bargaining table.”

“Starbucks can’t get back on track as a company until it finalizes a fair contract that invests in its workforce. Right now, I’m making $16.50 an hour. Meanwhile, Brian Niccol’s compensation package is worth $57,000 an hour,” Silvia Baldwin, a Philadelphia barista and bargaining delegate, said in a statement referring to Starbucks’ CEO.

“The company just announced I’m only getting a 2.5% raise next year, $0.40 an hour, which is hardly anything. It’s one Starbucks drink per week. Starbucks needs to invest in the baristas who make Starbucks run,” she added.

A Starbucks spokesperson said Workers United delegates “prematurely ended our bargaining session this week.”

Starbucks argued that it offers a “competitive average pay of over $18 per hour, and best-in-class benefits” such as health care, college tuition, paid family leave, and company stock grants.

“Workers United proposals call for an immediate increase in the minimum wage of hourly partners by 64%, and by 77% over the life of a three-year year contract. This is not sustainable,” the company said.

Starbucks said it is ready to continue negotiations.

It comes as the Teamsters union announced Thursday strikes at several Amazon delivery facilities, amid the peak holiday delivery rush.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Stock Market Sell Off: Is the Bull Market Over?

5 Mins Read

Uncertainty in the stock market makes it difficult to make investment decisions. When investors sell off stocks, everyone follows without giving it much thought and you’re left trying to figure out which path you should take. We saw this price action in the stock market on Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Investors started to sell their holdings, which intensified toward the last few minutes of the trading day. 

The rate cut didn’t come as a surprise. The market had already priced it in. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about slowing down rate cuts for the next two years led to the massive selloff. Inflationary concerns were one reason which may have heightened investor fear. The S&P 500 ($SPX) fell by 2.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) dropped by 3.56%. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) got hit hard, falling over 4%.

It wasn’t just equities that sold off. Gold prices fell. Silver prices fell. Bond prices fell. Even cryptocurrencies felt the pain. 

So, how damaging was the selloff? Let’s dive into the charts of the broader stock market indexes. 

Equities Hammered Hard

Whenever there’s such a significant fall in equities, it’s natural to think about buying the dip. But before you jump into anything, it’s best to see if the uptrend is still in play. 

From its August low, the S&P 500 has been in an upward trend with a few pullbacks, the deepest one being in early September when it almost reached its 100-day simple moving average or SMA (see chart below). On Wednesday, the index closed below its 50-day SMA toward the low of the day. The daily chart below shows market breadth is declining. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX WITH BREADTH INDICATORS. The index is close to hitting its late November lows, a key support level. If it breaks below that level and market breadth indicators continue to weaken, it could be a bearish signal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The NYSE Advance-Decline Line (!ADLINENYC), the percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average ($SPXA200R), and the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) are all trending lower. That the $BPSPX is below 50 shows that bearish pressure is dominant, which is concerning. 

The weekly chart is more optimistic in that the S&P 500 is still trending higher and above its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). All the moving averages on the chart are trending higher.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 500 INDEX. All moving averages overlaid on the chart are trending higher. The S&P 500 is trading above its 21-day EMA. A break below the EMA would be the first signal of a reversal of a bull market. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The takeaway: Watch the November lows in the daily chart (blue dashed line). A close below this level would mean a break in the “higher highs, higher lows” trend. If the $BPSPX continues to decline and the S&P 500 falls below its November low and 21-week EMA, consider offloading partial positions. 

The Nasdaq Composite has a similar pattern in its chart, although it’s still above its 50-day SMA (see chart below). However, what is concerning about the daily chart of the Nasdaq is that it closed at its November high. A break below this level could break the series of higher highs and higher lows depending on how it unfolds. So watch this level carefully.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE WITH MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS. The Nasdaq has reached its November high. Market breadth indicators are weakening. Keep an eye on this chart. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The NASDAQ Advance-Decline Line (!ADLINENAS), the percent of Nasdaq stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is at 54% and trending lower, and the Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ) are all trending lower with the $BPCOMPQ at 50. If you pull up the weekly chart by changing the Period dropdown menu to weekly and using a five-year range, the trend is still bullish, similar to the weekly chart of the S&P 500.

Fear Gauge Is Running Hot

The rise in fear can be seen in the action in the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) which closed at 27.62, a 74.04% increase. The chart of the S&P 500 vs. the VIX below shows how big of a move it experienced on Wednesday. 

FIGURE 4. S&P 500 VS. THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX). Spikes in the VIX are accompanied by a pullback in the S&P 500. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. A spike of such a magnitude occurred in early August, which is when the S&P 500 pulled back and resumed a very optimistic uptrend. 

Despite the spike in the VIX, investors weren’t flocking to “risk-off” investments. Gold and silver prices fell as did cryptocurrency prices. Treasury yields rose with the 10-year yield at 4.494% and the US dollar surged against other major currencies, especially the euro. 

The Bottom Line

Now that the last FOMC meeting for the year is behind us, there’s not much remaining in terms of economic data except the November Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday. There’s also the Santa Claus Rally to look forward to. So if Wednesday’s chaotic price action is an opportunity to buy the dip, i.e., if the indexes reverse without falling past critical support levels, you could make some end-of-year trades that could turn profitable as we head into the new year.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Crowd crush kills 35 children at funfair in Nigeria, police say

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At least 35 children were killed and six others critically injured in a crowd crush at a funfair in southwest Nigeria on Wednesday, police said.

Eight people have been arrested for their alleged involvement in the incident at the Islamic school in the city of Ibadan, an Oyo state police spokesperson said in a statement Thursday.

The event’s main sponsor is among those detained, police said.

According to local radio station Agidigbo FM, the organizers of the event – identified as the Women in Need of Guidance and Support (WING) – expected to host 5,000 children under the age of 13 at the free event, where they could win prizes like scholarships.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu expressed his condolences through a statement from his spokesperson, state news agency NAN News reported.

“In this moment of mourning, President Tinubu stands in solidarity with the affected families and offers prayers that the Almighty God will grant peace to the souls of those who have departed in this unfortunate event,” the statement said.

The president also urged the Oyo State Government to take necessary steps to prevent a similar tragedy from occurring, according to NAN.

Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde said it was “a very sad day.”

“We sympathise with the parents whose joy has suddenly been turned to mourning due to these deaths,” Makinde posted on Facebook.

“I want to reassure our people that anyone directly or remotely involved in this disaster will be held accountable. Please remain calm as the security agencies investigate this unfortunate incident.”

The case has been transferred to the homicide section of the state’s criminal investigation department, police said.

“The Oyo State Police Command sympathizes with all the families and loved ones affected by the tragedy and assures the good people of the state that justice will be served accordingly,” the police spokesperson said.

Nigeria, a West African nation home to more than 236 million people, has seen several deadly crowd crushes in recent years.

In February, the Nigeria Customs Service confirmed that an unspecified number of people were trampled to death during a crowd surge as they waited for discounted rice at its office in Lagos, the country’s largest city.

Many children were among 30 people killed in a crowd crush at a church event in the southeastern city of Port Harcourt in 2022, according to police and security officials.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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