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December 31, 2024

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Generally, there are 3 key hedges against inflation – gold ($GOLD), commodities ($XRB), and real estate (XLRE). While the Fed has taken a renewed interest in the short-term rising inflationary picture, which, by the way, is in direct contrast to what Fed Chief Powell said in late August and September, Wall Street simply isn’t seeing the same picture. Talk is cheap. When it comes to the stock market, the true statement being delivered is reflected in the price chart, not on CNBC.

Everyone now seems to be taking a different trading stance too. Bonds have been sold, sending yields soaring again. Bond investors will sell bonds when inflation is center stage for one simple reason. Bond yields aren’t high enough, given the prospects of inflation, and bond investors demand a higher yield to take on the additional inflation risk. After all, do you want to hold a 4% 10-year treasury if you believe inflation might move to 6%? I’d hope not. That’s clearly a losing proposition. Personally, I think the recent selloff in bonds is completely unwarranted and that yields will ultimately drop as investors fail to see meaningfully-higher inflation materialize.

The Fed has stated that it wants to continue watching inflation data and that its target rate of 2% will more likely be achieved in 2027 vs. 2026. While they’ve indicated that interest rate cuts will occur just two times in 2025 vs. the previously-announced 4 rate cuts, one question that should continue to be asked is…..why would interest rates be cut AT ALL if you’re truly worried about inflation. And why would the Fed have already cut the fed funds rate by 100 basis points over the past 3 Fed meetings? Honestly, I think this nonsense is nothing more than the Fed Chief hedging and waffling.

Is the stock market concerned about inflation? Ummm, I don’t think so. Let’s get back to those inflation “hedges” and see how they’ve been performing recently vs. the S&P 500. After all, when inflation, or the threat of inflation, is REAL, the hedges should work and outperform the benchmark S&P 500, right? Take a look at this current RRG chart (I’ve included silver as well):

Does this look like Wall Street is rotating into these hedges to you?

To compare, let’s go back to 2022 and check out when inflation was an obvious problem:

A 6.5% annual rate of inflation is a problem and that was certainly one big reason why we followed that up with a cyclical bear market in stocks (which I called at our MarketVision 2022 event in early January of that year). Now let’s check out the movement in the fed funds rate in 2022 and, more recently, in 2024:

When inflation is truly a problem, you RAISE the fed funds rate, you don’t cut it. 2022 saw the fed funds raised incredibly fast and the total increases were significant. The Fed was increasing rates to slow demand and curb inflationary pressures, which they did. But if we fast forward to late 2024, the Fed is CUTTING rates and is looking ahead and saying more rate cuts are coming. This DOES NOT happen when inflation is a true threat.

Now, scroll up and take a look at the current RRG chart that shows money rotating AWAY FROM inflation hedges. It’s quite a different look than when inflation is a REAL problem. Check out this RRG chart, which shows rotation in February 2022 as inflation establishes its first annual rate of change peak:

Quite a different look, wouldn’t you say?

So my last question…….Does Wall Street truly believe inflation is a major threat? I say no.

MarketVision 2025

Well it’s time and we’re only one week away. How will 2025 unfold? I have a solid track record at these prior MarketVision events. This is year #6. In the previous 5, I’ve provided bullish outlooks for 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024, which were all bullish. The only year I was cautious was heading into 2022 and it was due to a number of factors, including inflation. But the biggest question right now is…..Where are our major indices heading in 2025? Which sectors and industry groups are likely to be in favor? What about the dollar and commodities? Interest rates and the yield curve? Sentiment? International stocks? I have the answers and I’ll be sharing them with our EarningsBeats.com members next Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 10:00am ET. For more information and to register for MarketVision 2025, CLICK HERE! We’ll provide you ONE YEAR of EarningsBeats.com membership FOR FREE when you sign up for the event!

4 Trading Tips for 2025

I want to open up a new year with 4 important trading tips to help make 2025 a more successful and profitable year. for you. You can SIGN UP for these tips and they will be delivered to your email, beginning on Monday, December 30th. I hope you enjoy them as a THANK YOU for your loyalty and support in 2024!

On behalf of the entire EarningsBeats.com team, I want to wish everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2025!

Happy trading!

Tom

The Taliban say they will close all national and foreign nongovernmental groups in Afghanistan employing women, the latest crackdown on women’s rights since they took power in August 2021.

The announcement comes two years after they told NGOs to suspend the employment of Afghan women, allegedly because they didn’t wear the Islamic headscarf correctly.

In a letter published on X Sunday night, the Economy Ministry warned that failure to comply with the latest order would lead to NGOs losing their license to operate in Afghanistan.

The United Nations said the space for women in Afghanistan has shrunk dramatically in the last two years and reiterated its call for the Taliban to reverse the restrictions.

“This really impacts how we can provide life saving humanitarian assistance to all the people in Afghanistan,” UN associate spokesperson Florencia Soto Nino-Martinez said. “And obviously we are very concerned by the fact that we are talking about a country where half the population’s rights are being denied and are living in poverty, and many of them, not just women, are facing a humanitarian crisis.”

The Economy Ministry said it was responsible for the registration, coordination, leadership and supervision of all activities carried out by national and foreign organizations.

The government was once again ordering the stoppage of all female work in institutions not controlled by the Taliban, according to the letter.

“In case of lack of cooperation, all activities of that institution will be canceled and the activity license of that institution, granted by the ministry, will also be canceled.”

It’s the Taliban’s latest attempt to control or intervene in NGO activity.

Earlier this month, the UN Security Council heard that an increasing proportion of female Afghan humanitarian workers were prevented from doing their work even though relief work remains essential.

According to Tom Fletcher, a senior UN official, the proportion of humanitarian organizations reporting that their female or male staff were stopped by the Taliban’s morality police has also increased.

The Taliban deny they are stopping aid agencies from carrying out their work or interfering with their activities.

They have already barred women from many jobs and most public spaces, and also excluded them from education beyond sixth grade.

In another development, the Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada has ordered that buildings should not have windows looking into places where a woman might sit or stand.

According to a four-clause decree posted on X late Saturday, the order applies to new buildings as well as existing ones.

The United Nations also called for a reversal of this restriction, Soto Nino-Martinez said.

The decree said windows should not overlook or look into areas like yards or kitchens. Where a window looks into such a space then the person responsible for that property must find a way to obscure this view to “remove harm,” by installing a wall, fence or screen.

Municipalities and other authorities must supervise the construction of new buildings to avoid installing windows that look into or over residential properties, the decree added.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing was not immediately available for comment on Akhundzada’s instructions.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Richard Parsons, who helped Time Warner divorce from AOL after what was considered one of the worst takeovers in history, has died. He was 76.

His death was confirmed by Lazard, where he was a longtime board member.

Parsons became CEO of AOL Time Warner in 2002, replacing Gerald Levin, who stepped aside two years after the media giant’s disastrous $165 billion merger with the upstart internet company.

As CEO and later chairman, he led Time Warner’s turnaround, dropping “AOL” from the corporation’s name and shrinking the company’s $30 billion in debt to $16.8 billion by selling Warner Music and other properties.

“The merger did not work out quite the way many of us expected. The internet bubble burst and we had to fix the leaks,” Parsons told The Independent in 2004. “It was not as monumental a task as many people thought, as the fundamental businesses of the old Time Warner — like publishing, the cable networks and movies — was running well.”

He said that after the merger, AOL’s business had collapsed and Warner Music Group was declining, along with the entire music industry. “So we sold our music business, as well as other nonstrategic assets, to strengthen our balance sheet and put in new management.”

Parsons stepped down from Time Warner in 2007.

Richard Dean “Dick” Parsons was born into a working-class family on April 4, 1948, in Brooklyn’s Bedford-Stuyvesant section and grew up in South Ozone Park in Queens, New York. He was a middle child among five siblings.

He attended public school, skipping two grades, and at age 16, the 6-foot-4 Parsons enrolled at the University of Hawaii, where he played basketball and met his future wife, Laura Ann Bush, whom he married in 1968.

After graduation, he returned to New York state to attend Albany Law School, moonlighting as a part-time janitor to help pay his tuition and finishing at the top of his class. During an internship at the New York state legislature, he developed ties to moderate Republican Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, who became vice president under Gerald Ford in 1974 in the wake of President Richard Nixon’s resignation. Parsons became associate director of President Ford’s domestic policy council.

“The old-boy network lives,” Parsons told The New York Times in a 1994 interview. “I didn’t grow up with any of the old boys. I didn’t go to school with any of the old boys. But by becoming a part of that Rockefeller entourage, that created for me a group of people who’ve looked out for me ever since.”

After Ford’s defeat by Jimmy Carter in the 1976 election, Parsons returned to New York and joined the law firm of Patterson, Belknap, Webb & Tyler in 1977, as did his friend Rudy Giuliani. Parsons and his wife and three children moved to Rockefeller country, Briarcliff Manor in Westchester County. Coincidentally, his maternal grandfather had been a groundskeeper on John D. Rockefeller’s nearby estate, Kykuit.

Parson’s clients included Rockefeller’s widow, Happy, and the Dime Savings Bank of New York. In 1988, he accepted an offer to head Dime Bancorp, which had been struggling through the savings & loan crisis after aggressively approving high-risk mortgages as housing prices crashed. In 1989, it posted a $92.3 million loss. By the end of 1993, after ordering massive layoffs, Parsons helped the bank complete a $300 million recapitalization. In 1995, he helped engineer Dime’s merger with Anchor Savings, creating one of the nation’s largest thrift institutions.

Parsons joined the Time Warner board on the recommendation of Rockefeller’s brother Laurance. He became president of Time Warner in 1995.

As a Rockefeller Republican, Parsons considered himself a fiscal conservative and a social liberal. Parsons worked for Giuliani’s campaign for New York mayor but kept a behind-the-scenes profile. ″I didn’t want to be positioned as the Mayor’s Black guy,″⁣ he told the Times a few years later.

Giuliani put him in charge of the mayoral transition team in 1993 but Parsons turned down an offer to become deputy mayor for fiscal affairs. His relationship with Giuliani later soured after the mayor tried to pressure Time Warner Cable to carry the then-fledgling Fox News Channel in New York.

Richard Parsons on Capitol Hill in 2008.Tim Sloan / AFP / Getty Images file

Two years after stepping down from Time Warner, Parsons became chairman of Citigroup in 2009, helping to stabilize the banking giant in the wake of the financial crisis. In May 2014, he was named interim CEO of the Los Angeles Clippers after the NBA banned owner Donald Sterling for life because he had made racist remarks.“Like most Americans, I have been deeply troubled by the pain the Clippers’ team, fans and partners have endured,” Parsons said.

Parsons played down race as a factor of his success.

“For a lot of people, race is a defining issue. It just isn’t for me,” he told the Times in 1997. “It is … like air. It’s like height. I have other things that I’m focused on.″

He later came out of retirement to briefly serve as CBS chairman in the wake of Les Moonves’ ouster following sexual harassment and assault allegations during the #MeToo movement.

After only a month as CBS’ interim chairman, Parsons stepped down suddenly in October 2018, citing health concerns.

“When I agreed to join the board and serve as the interim chair, I was already dealing with a serious health challenge — multiple myeloma — but I felt that the situation was manageable,” Parsons said in a CBS statement announcing he had been replaced by Strauss Zelnick. “Unfortunately, unanticipated complications have created additional new challenges, and my doctors have advised that cutting back on my current commitments is essential to my overall recovery.”

Parsons was active in many charities, including playing leading roles for the Jazz Foundation of America, the Apollo Theater Foundation and the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture. During his years on the Apollo Theater board, he helped the historic Harlem entertainment venue raise nearly $100 million. Parsons and his wife also donated 40 works of art to the American Folk Art Museum in July 2021 to help celebrate its 60th anniversary.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS