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Today Carl compares this week’s Trump Rally with the rally we saw after Reagan was elected in 1980. There are similarities and differences. The Trump rally has lifted certain sectors of the market as well as Cryptocurrencies. While the Reagan rally had different catalysts.

The market continues to make new all-time highs. Carl gives us the full analysis picture as he covers the market in general as well as Bitcoin, Gold, the Dollar and many more.

It is time for another review of the Magnificent Seven in the short and intermediate terms. Some are positioned well while others are showing weakness.

Erin covers sector rotation with a special study of the small-cap stocks that are soaring higher on the Trump election. Are overbought conditions a problem? Overbought conditions can persist in a bull market move and that is exactly what we have right now.

The pair finish the program looking at viewer symbol requests which were heavy on Semiconductors. How do they compare with NVDA?

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01:33 Trump Rally vs. Reagan Rally

06:21 Market Overview

14:41 Magnificent Seven

21:15 Sector Rotation and Small-Caps

29:42 Symbol Requests


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon made a “formal and unreserved” apology in Parliament on Tuesday for the widespread abuse, torture and neglect of hundreds of thousands of children and vulnerable adults in care, many of them Indigenous.

“It was horrific. It was heartbreaking. It was wrong. And it should never have happened,” Luxon said, as he spoke to lawmakers and a public gallery packed with survivors of the abuse.

An estimated 200,000 people in state, foster and faith-based care suffered “unimaginable” abuse over a period of seven decades, a blistering report released in July said at the end of the largest inquiry ever undertaken in New Zealand.

“For many of you it changed the course of your life, and for that, the government must take responsibility,” Luxon said.

“Words do matter and I say these words with sincerity: I have read your stories, and I believe you,” he added. The Prime Minister was apologizing on behalf of previous governments too, he said.

The results were a “national disgrace,” the inquiry’s report said, after a six-year investigation believed to be the widest-ranging of comparable probes worldwide. Of 650,000 children and vulnerable adults in state, foster, and church care between 1950 and 2019 — in a country that today has a population of 5 million — nearly a third endured physical, sexual, verbal or psychological abuse. Many more were exploited or neglected.

They were disproportionately Maori, New Zealand’s Indigenous people.

In response to the findings, New Zealand’s government agreed for the first time that historical treatment of some children in a notorious state-run hospital amounted to torture, and pledged an apology to all those abused in state, foster and religious care since 1950.

Luxon’s government was decried by some survivors and advocates earlier Tuesday ahead of the apology for not yet having divulged plans for the financial compensation of those abused.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Since September 1, the Ukrainian capital Kyiv has been spared from Russian drone attacks on just one night – October 14.

Every other night, many of its 4.5 million residents have been woken by sirens and rushed to some form of shelter or hidden in their bathrooms.

In the first week of November alone, sirens blared for 43 hours.

The onslaught is just one indicator of Russia’s ability to prosecute its assault at full throttle, even as Ukraine faces deep uncertainty about future support from the US and Europe.

The cities of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa have also suffered frequent drone and missile strikes in recent weeks in what appears to be a renewed Russian effort to break the resolve of Ukrainian civilians.

On Saturday night, Ukrainian air defenses detected a record 145 incoming Shahed drones.

The spike in attacks on cities comes as Russian forces continue to make incremental gains in Donetsk, while Ukrainian units suffer from manpower shortages and are increasingly stretched along the vast front line.

‘Constant anxiety’

Viktoria Kovalchuk said that after debris from a drone fell close to her home last week her 6-year-old son Teo was “very scared and grabbed onto me.”

Kovalchuk said Teo was in a state of constant anxiety. “For the past two months, when the shelling has become more frequent, we have been hiding in the bathroom or going down to the shelter in the basement,” Kovalchuk said.

“I don’t remember when we had a proper night’s sleep.”

“We will restore everything on our own and continue to work as we have been doing,” he insisted.

Alarms alone are hugely disruptive to the city’s life. Bridges close, public transport is halted, and the two parts of the capital either side of the Dnipro river are effectively cut off.

Many children don’t come to school during alerts, Usov said.

Many air defense batteries are run by volunteers from all walks of life – among them one of the judges on Ukraine’s Supreme Court, Yuriy Chumak.

“We have been doing this for over two years,” he said, but the intensity of drone attacks had peaked over the past two to three months.

Their equipment is low-tech – machine-guns on the roofs of eight high-rise buildings. “Drones were flying low, (so) it was realistic and cheap to shoot them down with a machine gun.”

“At night, we are on duty continuously. There are attacks every day now,” Chumak added.

The drone attacks seem calculated to instil fear rather than cause mass casualties, but several people have been killed in recent weeks. Among them was 15-year-old Mariya Troyanivska, described by her Kyiv school as an inspiration “who loved life and gave joy to everyone around her.”

The relentless attacks do appear to be eroding morale. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology regularly asks people whether Ukraine should continue fighting for as long as it takes. The number saying yes has fallen from 73% in February to 63% last month.

‘Difficult’ front lines

That perception is likely fed by news from the front, where Russian assaults continue to erode Ukrainian defenses, especially close to the key hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk.

The commander in chief of the military, Oleksander Syrskyi, said Saturday that, “the situation remains difficult and tends to escalate. The enemy, taking advantage of its numerical superiority, continues to conduct offensive actions and focuses its main efforts on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.”

After a two-week trip to Ukraine last month, analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting said the key problem is to integrate newly mobilized troops.

Muzyka posted on X that the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian region of Kursk “has stretched the already small Ukrainian forces even further.”

The Ukrainians are using a variety of battlefield drones to inflict losses on the Russians. Syrskyi said more than 52,000 enemy targets were destroyed or damaged by drones in October alone.

But drones cannot compensate for a shortage of infantry, Muzyka reflected. Despite a law passed earlier this year to improve mobilization, “the presence of newly mobilized units/soldiers is practically imperceptible.”

“We have a situation in which the Ukrainians not only cannot keep up with replacing losses, but also lose soldiers at an increasingly rapid pace due to falling morale,” Muzyka said on X.

Russian forces have become more adept at exploiting weaker points on the front line, enabling them to eat away at Ukrainian defenses within 6 miles (10 km) of Pokrovsk.

On many other parts of the 600-mile frontline, the Ukrainians are also on the defensive, with some analysts expecting another Russian push in the south. The only gains for the Ukrainians this year have been inside Russia, where they launched a surprise incursion in the Kursk region in August.

The negative outlook has darkened the mood among Ukraine’s allies, who talk much less about Kyiv prevailing on the battlefield – and much more about it holding enough ground to force the Kremlin to negotiate.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin implied as much. “No single capability will turn the tide. No one system will end Putin’s assault. What matters is the combined effects of Ukraine’s military capabilities — and staying focused on what works.”

Rym Montaz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, assesses that there is a “growing, quiet consensus that negotiations, which will entail accepting at least a temporary loss of sovereignty over territories, are the only way to end this war.”

“Kyiv is at one of its weakest points since February 2022, and the prospect of selling such a negotiation is a political minefield” for Zelensky, Montaz says.

Victory, defined by the Ukrainian government as ousting Russian troops from all its territory, is widely seen as unattainable.

In a new essay in Foreign Affairs, Richard Haass says that “Washington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome.”

“There is no game-changing weapon or lifted restriction that would allow Ukraine to simultaneously defend what it already controls and liberate what it does not,” Haas writes.

Ukrainian officials are putting a brave face on a gloomy outlook.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Saturday: “I am convinced that we are all united by the goal of achieving a just peace for Ukraine and stopping Russian aggression … We are talking about a just peace, not appeasement.”

The path to any negotiation is – to put it mildly – unclear. The Kremlin says its goals in Ukraine are unchanged: the annexation of four eastern and southern Ukrainian regions. Russian forces already occupy almost all of Luhansk and substantial parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – altogether some 20% of Ukraine.

“If Ukraine wants to persuade Russia to join peace talks, it must first stabilize the front and rebuild its forces enough to be able to conduct offensives,” says Muzyka.

Talk of how to end the conflict will now go into overdrive with Donald Trump’s election triumph. Trump has previously said he could end the war in 24 hours and in September he declared: “I think it’s in the US’ best interest to get this war finished and just get it done.”

One option favored by his vice president-elect, JD Vance, is to freeze the conflict on its current lines with a heavily fortified demilitarized zone to deter future Russian aggression. Along a poorly defined front line hundreds of miles long, that would be a daunting and perhaps impossible task.

It would reward the Kremlin with control of territories already seized. Moscow would also demand guarantees of Ukraine’s neutrality or at least the indefinite suspension of its drive to join NATO.

Even if on the backfoot, this would be impossible for President Volodymyr Zelensky to swallow without guarantees of Ukraine’s future security. And after the sacrifices of the past 1,000 days, it would also be unpalatable to many Ukrainians.

But the destination may be changing.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen presents a deep dive into last week’s sharp rally in the markets. She highlights what areas could perform best under a Trump administration and how to spot a pullback. She takes a close look at the “New Economy” and how best to capitalize.

This video originally premiered November 8, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen on StockCharts TV.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Family members of a 31-year-old American tourist who was killed while on vacation in Hungary’s capital mourned their loss while a 37-year-old suspect was in custody Saturday.

The victim, Mackenzie Michalski from Portland, Oregon, was reported missing on Nov. 5 after she was last seen at a nightclub in central Budapest.

Police launched a missing person investigation and reviewed security footage from local nightclubs where they observed Michalski with a man later identified as the suspect in several of the clubs the night of her disappearance.

The man was detained on Nov. 7 and questioned by police, and later allegedly confessed to the killing.

After Michalski’s disappearance, her family and friends had launched an effort to find her, starting a Facebook group to gather tips on her whereabouts. Her parents traveled to Hungary to assist in the search, but while en route learned that she had been killed.

At a candlelight vigil in Budapest on Saturday night, the victim’s father, Bill Michalski, told The Associated Press that he was “still overcome with emotion” at the death of his daughter.

“There was no reason for this to happen,” he said. “I’m still trying to wrap my arms around what happened … I don’t know that I ever will.”

Police detained the suspect, an Irish citizen, on the evening of Nov. 7. Investigators said that Michalski and the suspect had met at a nightclub and danced before leaving for the man’s rented apartment. Police alleged the man killed Michalski while they were engaged in an “intimate encounter.”

Police alleged the suspect confessed to the killing, but said it had been an accident. Police said that he had attempted to cover up his crime by cleaning the apartment and hiding Michalski’s body in a wardrobe before purchasing a suitcase and placing her body inside.

Allegedly, he then rented a car and drove to Lake Balaton, around 90 miles (150 kilometers) southwest of Budapest, where he disposed of the body in a wooden area outside the town of Szigliget.

Video released by police showed the suspect guiding authorities to the location of the body. Police said the suspect had made internet searches before being apprehended on how to dispose of a body, police procedures in missing person cases, whether pigs really eat dead bodies, and the presence of wild boars in the Lake Balaton area.

They said he had also made an internet search inquiring on the competence of Budapest police.

Crime scene photographs released by police showed a rolling suitcase, several articles of clothing including a pair of fleece-lined boots, and a small handbag next to a credit card bearing Michalski’s name.

According to a post by an administrator of a Facebook group called “Find Mackenzie Michalski,” which was created on Nov. 7, Michalski, who went by “Kenzie,” was a nurse practitioner who “will forever be remembered as a beautiful and compassionate young woman.”

At the candlelight vigil in Budapest on Saturday, Michalski’s father gave brief comments to those who had gathered, and was wearing a baseball cap he said he had received as a gift from his daughter.

Michalski had visited Budapest before, and called it her “happy place,” her father told the AP.

“The history, she just loved it and she was just so relaxed here,” he said. “This was her city.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Nvidia passed Apple in market cap on Tuesday becoming, for a second time, the most valuable publicly traded company in the world.

Nvidia rose nearly 3% to close with a market cap of $3.43 trillion, ahead of Apple at $3.4 trillion. Nvidia shares have almost tripled in 2024, as investors show continued confidence in the company’s ability to maintain a rapid growth rate from its graphics processing units, or GPUs, and a leadership position in the artificial intelligence market.

Apple shares are up about 17% this year, although many analysts say the recent release of the Apple Intelligence suite of features for iPhones could drive increased sales and put the company in a leadership position in “edge AI,” which relies less on GPU-based servers.

Nvidia is the dominant supplier of GPUs, which are used to develop and deploy advanced AI software such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Its stock is now up more than 2,700% in the past five years, and revenue has more than doubled in each of the past five quarters, tripling in three of them. 

Apple was the first company to reach a $1 trillion and a $2 trillion market cap. Nvidia previously passed Apple in June before sliding over the summer. Microsoft, ranked third with a market cap of close to $3.1 trillion, is a major customer of Nvidia GPUs to fuel its partnership with OpenAI as well as its own AI ambitions.

Founded in 1991 to produce chips for playing 3D games, Nvidia has taken off in recent years for a very different reason. Over the past decade, scientists and researchers discovered that the same Nvidia chip designs that could render polygons and computer graphics were ideal for the kind of parallel processing needed for AI. Nvidia then developed software and more powerful chips specifically for AI.

Last week, Apple reported a 6% increase in revenue for the most-recent quarter but signaled weaker growth than analysts expected in the current period. Nvidia is scheduled to report results Nov. 20.

S&P Dow Jones announced last week that Nvidia will join the Dow Industrial Average on Friday, replacing longtime rival Intel, and joining Apple in the blue-chip index.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

First of all, for those of you looking for a new video this week, I have intentionally skipped it because I didn’t want to make a video right before such an important event with much uncertainty.

After the elections, which were obviously eventful, I wanted to see what the market’s reaction would be and let the dust settle down before diving into any analysis, which might have been too preoccupied and presumptuous too early.

However, it’s now Friday, the end of the week, and we have a little more color on how markets have responded to the election results. It’s time to see what the sector rotation is telling us and how the chart of the S&P 500 has changed—because it has definitely changed!

The S&P 500’s Post-Election Reversal

If you look at that chart right now with the annotations, which were the cornerstone of my view, I have to say that it was a little conservative going into the elections. This has now pretty much turned around. On the chart, a very clear island reversal is now visible.

We have the gap down on the 31st of October, followed by three more or less sideways days, which took SPY to a low of just around 567. On November 5th, election day, the market closed at the high, followed by a massive gap up the day after. It was not only a gap up but also a move above the S&P 500’s all-time highs.

So we have a massive gap up. We have an island reversal, which completed just above pretty important support around 565, and we now already have two days of good follow-through. That is a strong sign. This market wants to go higher, at least in the near term.

If we switch to the weekly chart for SPY, those mild divergences between the RSI and price and the MACD and price are still visible, but the price action itself is so strong that it cannot and should not be negated.

So, at least in the near term, this market wants to go higher. For now, corrections holding above support around 585 (the former peak) should be regarded as buying opportunities.

Reversals in Sector Rotation

On the relative rotation graph for the 11 S&P sectors above, I have intentionally set the tail length at six trading days. That means that each tail has seven nodes, and the 4th node, so the middle one, is November 5th. This allows us to see the 3 days leading up to election day and then the 3 days after election day. As you can see, most of the tails have continued to travel in the direction they were already heading.

The most prominent ones are consumer discretionary and communication services, which entered and moved further into the leading quadrant. On the other side is the utility sector, which accelerated further into the lagging quadrant.

Sectors with Notable Changes

I want to highlight a few sectors that really changed direction, where we saw a change in detail before and after election day. The two sectors with the most prominent changes are financials and health care.

This first RRG shows the tails for both sectors ending on the 5th of November.

Financials Sector (XLF)

If we zoom in on the tail for XLF, you can see that it ended November 5th just inside the weakening quadrant. It just crossed over from leading to weakening. Then, in the 3 days after November 5th, it completely reversed course and is now almost back into the leading quadrant.

Health Care Sector (XLV)

The same sort of move is visible on the other side of the chart for the healthcare sector, XLV. On November 5th, XLV had just crossed into the improving quadrant and was on a positive heading. In the 3 days after, the sector completely reversed course and is now back into the lagging quadrant at a negative heading.

XLP and XLRE Rolling Over

Other sectors where we see a change in the course of the tail include consumer staples, which was inside the improving quadrant but hooked back down, rolled over, and is now back into the lagging quadrant, and real estate, which was also inside the improving quadrant but rolled over and is now accelerating into the lagging quadrant.

The technology sector changed course a bit, but not as clearly as the other sectors. It is still right around the 100 level on the RS ratio scale and very close to the benchmark without a very clear direction.

The Big Winners Post-Election

I think the biggest winners from these election results with good potential going forward are consumer discretionary (XLY), and Communication Services (XLC).

XLY is obviously led by TSLA, which is distorting the performance of the consumer discretionary sector with an almost 27% gain in 3 days. But consumer discretionary stocks have picked up roughly between 3% and 7% across the board, which still indicates strength. The communication services sector is slightly more evenly spread out, and has a good base and a good foundation to move higher and push further into the leading quadrant.

Conclusion

All in all, the market as a whole seems to have reversed its course. After only a very mild corrective move, it has now started a new up leg in the existing uptrend. The sectors that have come out on top are consumer discretionary and communication services, followed by financials.

All 3 are on the right-hand side of the RRG, either already inside the leading quadrant or almost there, and traveling at a positive RRG heading. On the opposite side, the sectors with a less favorable outlook are health care, consumer staples, and utilities. Overall, the sector rotation has now shifted from defense back to offense.

#StayAlert, and have a great weekend. –Julius


The value of assets tied to Donald Trump — and those likely to benefit under his administration — surged in the wake of his decisive electoral victory on Tuesday.

Leading the way was Trump Media and Technology Group, the company that owns the Truth Social media platform. Its stock closed up 6% in Wednesday trading. Trump is the majority owner of the company.

Shares of Tesla, the electric automaker owned by Elon Musk, also rose sizably — up 15%. Musk was heavily involved in promoting Trump’s campaign, and the president-elect has indicated he would appoint Musk, the world’s richest person, to a Cabinet-level position tasked with tackling perceived government waste.

And the price of bitcoin increased 9%, touching an all-time-high of nearly than $76,000. Cryptocurrencies and companies in the crypto space generally had broad gains Wednesday.

Trump has promised to reduce government oversight of the cryptocurrency industry, which provided a steady stream of funds to his campaign, and to a lesser extent his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, throughout the presidential race. Trump served as keynote speaker at this year’s annual Bitcoin conference in Nashville.

In a note to clients Wednesday, Isaac Boltansky, managing director and director of policy research at BTIG, a financial services firm, noted several other sectors are likely to benefit from a second Trump presidency, including private prisons, fossil fuel, nuclear and clean coal, defense industry firms and online consumer finance firms that may have otherwise been subject to close regulatory scrutiny.

Trump has generally pledged to extend or enact major tax cuts while loosening regulations, something that the business community is set to embrace. Stocks across the board rose Wednesday in anticipation of stronger economic growth.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Now that election uncertainty is over, the stock market broke out of its sideways trading range and continued higher. Potential policy implementations benefit some asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies, which could operate in a more relaxed regulatory environment.

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN), a crypto-related stock, made it to the top of the Top Up Large Cap stocks in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports on Wednesday, the day after the US elections.

FIGURE 1. COINBASE IN TOP POSITION. A 65.7 rise in the SCTR score is an impressive one day jump.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The weekly chart of Coinbase stock shows a series of lower highs and lower lows from March 2024. COIN has broken above the upper channel line, but it’s just the beginning. More momentum needs to be behind Coinbase’s stock price to see follow-through in this movement.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF COINBASE. Since March 2024, COIN has been consolidating. With Wednesday’s price action, the stock price broke through the upper channel of the consolidation pattern.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The daily chart (see below) shows that the uptrend has started. Coinbase’s stock price gapped up and closed near its daily high on strong volume.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF COINBASE. Wednesday’s gap up in COIN is encouraging. Will there be enough momentum for a follow-through? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

COIN is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), its SCTR score crossed over 76, and its relative strength index (RSI) is getting close to the 70 level.

When To Buy COIN

I would look at the weekly chart to identify the entry point. Since COIN has broken out of its downward channel, an ideal scenario would be if the stock price pulled back a bit and reversed, at which point I would look for an entry point at around $250. The RSI should also be greater than 70. The first resistance level to watch for would be around $265, a previous high. If COIN pushes through that level, the next level would be $280. It could go even higher if the momentum is behind it. COIN’s all-time high is $429.54.

If owning shares of Coinbase is a stretch at current price levels and you have signed up for the OptionsPlay Add-on, consider trading options on the stock. Below the chart, under Tools & Resources, click on Options, then the OptionsPlay button.

FIGURE 4. OPTIONS STRATEGIES TO TRADE COINBASE. You can see up to three optimal options strategies depending on your directional bias and implied volatility.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

By default, three strategies will be displayed for a bullish scenario. In the screenshot above, the Jan 17 250/340 call vertical has a relatively decent reward for a max risk of $2,600. Click the expand icon at the top right to see more details.

The stock trend doesn’t meet this trade’s requirements. You could modify the legs to see if another strike price or expiration will meet the trend requirement. Another option is to close this window and try out a bearish or high implied volatility environment to see if you get a more optimal strategy.

FIGURE 5. CALL VERTICAL DETAILS. You can get more granularity for the call vertical when you click the expand icon. All except stock trend checks off in the strategy checklist.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Once you’ve found a strategy you’re comfortable trading, click the Trade button and copy the trade to your trading platform if you have an options-enabled trading account.

The Bottom Line

Coinbase stock has the potential to rise higher, but a one-day jump in price shouldn’t be your entry criteria. You must still analyze the chart and decide on an entry and exit point that works for your risk tolerance level. Add COIN to your ChartLists and, if possible, set an alert for an entry point. Once you have a position open, follow smart risk management strategies and be prepared to exit a position once it has crossed your exit threshold. You never lose money when taking profits early.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.