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Tokyo (AP) — Japanese Princess Yuriko, the wife of wartime Emperor Hirohito’s brother and the oldest member of the imperial family, has died after her health deteriorated recently, palace officials said. She was 101.

Yuriko died Friday at a Tokyo hospital, the Imperial Household Agency said. It did not announce the cause of death, but Japanese media said she died of pneumonia.

Born in 1923 as an aristocrat, Yuriko married at age 18 to Prince Mikasa, the younger brother of Hirohito and the uncle of current Emperor Naruhito, months before the start of World War II.

She has recounted living in a shelter with her husband and their baby daughter after their residence was burned down in the US fire bombings of Tokyo in the final months of the war in 1945.

Yuriko raised five children and supported Mikasa’s research into ancient Near Eastern history, while also serving her official duties and taking part in philanthropic activities. She outlived her husband and all three sons.

Her death reduces Japan’s rapidly dwindling imperial family to 16 people, including four men, as the country faces the dilemma of how to maintain the royal family while conservatives in the governing party insist on retaining male-only succession.

The 1947 Imperial House Law, which largely preserves conservative prewar family values, allows only males to take the throne and forces female royal family members who marry commoners to lose their royal status.

The youngest male member of the imperial family, Prince Hisahito — the nephew of Emperor Naruhito — is currently the last heir apparent, posing a major problem for a system that doesn’t allow empresses. The government is debating how to keep succession stable without relying on women.

Yuriko had lived a healthy life as a centenarian before suffering a stroke and pneumonia in March. She enjoyed exercise in the morning while watching a daily fitness program on television, the Imperial Household Agency says. She also continued to read multiple newspapers and magazines and enjoyed watching news and baseball on TV. On sunny days, she sat in the palace garden or was wheeled in her wheelchair.

Yuriko was hospitalized after her stroke and had been in and out of intensive care since then. Her overall condition deteriorated over the past week, the Imperial Household Agency said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The post-election euphoria may have taken a breather on Tuesday, as the US stock market indexes closed lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was only lower by 0.09%, whereas the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) was down the most—it closed lower by 1.54%.

A MarketCarpets Ride

On a day when the equity indexes closed lower, Tuesday’s StockCharts’ MarketCarpets shows that the downward move was mostly from a handful of sectors. Materials, Health Care, Real Estate, Utilities, Industrials, and Energy were the worst hit. Consumer Discretionary was also hit hard, except for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), the highest cap-weighted stock in the sector.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPET FOR TUESDAY. Although a lot of sectors were a sea of red, the Mag 7 stocks closed higher.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What stands out in the MarketCarpet is that the heavily weighted Mag 7 stocks, NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, and NFLX, closed higher for the day. AAPL was the exception—it closed unchanged. So, it’s unsurprising that Communication Services and Technology were Tuesday’s top performers.

Because most of the largest cap-weighted stocks closed higher, pulling up the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weighted Index ($NDXE) chart made sense. The daily chart below shows that the index is still bullish despite Tuesday’s pullback, a decline of -0.41%. $NDXE broke above its July high post-election and is trading relatively close to its all-time high.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ 100 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX ($NDXE). Even though the large cap-weighted stocks performed well, the equal-weighted index is also bullish despite underperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes only.

The last bar on the chart hit the November 7 (the last large body day) low and bounced back. Since the long body of November 7, there are now three short bodies, suggesting that market participants aren’t decisive in one way or another (see the candlestick bars within the green rectangle).

Note that $NDXE is underperforming relative to the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX), which isn’t unusual. What is interesting to see is that the relative performance is declining. This may mean that we could see a rotation into Technology and Communication Services as the year plays out.

Finding Stocks Using MarketCarpets

With many mega-cap tech stocks trading at elevated prices, does this mean the less sought-after smaller-cap tech stocks won’t see much upside movement? Not necessarily. One way to identify some of the smaller-weighted tech stocks is to look for technically strong stocks within the top-performing sector that are lower priced.

For example, expand the Technology sector in the MarketCarpet (click Technology header) and follow the path below:

Select SCTR from Measurements > 1M Change from Color By > Equal Weight from Size By.

I use the equal weight because it makes it easier to identify the different stocks. Note that this is just an example; you can use any parameters that meet your investing needs.

The screenshot below is the result of the above-mentioned selection criteria.

FIGURE 3. DIVING DEEPER INTO THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR. Organizing the MarketCarpets by SCTR and equal weight makes it easier to identify the technically strong stocks.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The table on the right displays the top performers based on your selected criteria. Mouse over the squares of those top performers and, from the thumbnail chart, identify the stocks that meet your price-per-share threshold. Then, double-click on the tile in the MarketCarpet to see the Symbol Summary page for your selected stock. From here, you can do a deeper analysis; if the stock has upside potential, add it to an appropriate ChartList. Set a price alert so you’re notified when the alert is met.

The bottom line: The stock market offers many opportunities. The key to taking advantage of those opportunities lies in your market analysis. The StockCharts MarketCarpets help you do a top-down analysis of the market to identify stocks or ETFs to trade.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

With thousands of extra security personnel deployed on the streets of Paris and a “double ring” of security thrown around the national stadium, France is taking no chances with Thursday’s soccer match with Israel.

After shocking scenes of violence in Amsterdam last week – with accusations of an organized “hunting” of Jews following days of unrest with fans of visiting Israeli club Maccabi-Tel Aviv – the French capital is determined to avoid a repeat.

Some 4,000 officers and 1,600 stadium staff will be deployed to police the game, with about 2,500 of those officers around the stadium itself, Paris police chief Laurent Nunez said.

The elite RAID police unit will be present inside the ground, according to France’s interior minister, and an “anti-terrorist security perimeter” will ensure two separate ID checks and searches for attendees.

This fixture comes just days after several nights of clashes in Amsterdam, when at least five people were treated in hospital and dozens were arrested after Israeli fans were attacked following Maccabi Tel Aviv’s 5-0 defeat to Ajax in violence condemned as antisemitic by authorities in the Netherlands and Israel.

Tensions had been rising ahead of last Thursday’s match in the Dutch capital. Multiple social media videos showed Maccabi fans chanting anti-Arab slurs, praising Israeli military attacks in Gaza and yelling “f**k the Arabs.” Maccabi supporters also tore down flags, vandalized a taxi and set a Palestinian flag on fire, Amsterdam police said.

This Thursday’s UEFA Nations League match between France and Israel will take place in the Stade de France, the centerpiece of Paris’ 2024 Olympic Games, and about 20,000 fans are expected to attend, according to Nunez. The police chief added that there was low demand for tickets to the game in a stadium that can accommodate some 80,000 spectators.

The supporters of the Israeli national side will likely differ from the fans at Amsterdam’s Maccabi match – some of whom have a reputation for hooliganism and violence.

On Sunday, Israel specifically warned its citizens against attending the match over fears for their safety. Even so, officials are determined for the game to go ahead.

French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has refused to cancel or move the match, telling parliamentarians that doing so would amount to “giving in to sowers of hate.” Instead, the country’s flagship stadium will be turned into a veritable fortress.

But the match won’t only be notable for its security.

Macron will be joined by his prime minister and two former presidents, Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, in a rare display of unity.

An iron-fisted response

This game comes at a particularly tense time for politics and sport in France.

Last week, Retailleau demanded answers from Paris Saint-Germain, the city’s main club, after fans unfurled an enormous “Free Palestine” display in the stands at a Champions League tie.

Following the match, Retailleau posted on X that clubs should be wary that, “politics does not come to damage sport, which must always remain a force for unity,” promising in a later radio interview that “nothing was off the table” in terms of sanctions against clubs that refuse to toe the line and police “political” banners.

The minister set an aggressive tone in his first months in office and his response to the Amsterdam attacks was no different. In a move unprecedented even since the Hamas-led October 7 assault on Israel last year and the ongoing war in Gaza that followed, Retailleau called for prosecutors to investigate a far-left lawmaker’s post about the violence in the Dutch capital.

Marie Mesmeur had posted that the Israelis attacked in Amsterdam, “were not lynched because they were Jewish, but because they were racist and supported genocide.”

The official French response could not be more different.

Macron said the incidents, “recalled the most shameful hours of history,” in sentiments mirrored by top French officials in a flurry of X posts.

France – like much of Europe and North America – has grappled with spiking antisemitism in recent years, which has only been accentuated by the October 7 attacks and Israel’s bloody campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon.

In France specifically, less than 1% of the French population is Jewish, yet Jews are victims of 57% of all racist and antireligious attacks in the country, Retailleau told lawmakers on Tuesday.

France is home to Europe’s largest Jewish population and one of the continent’s biggest Muslim populations. In recent years, French far-right politicians have clamored to claim the moral high ground around antisemitism.

All this comes amid a diplomatic spat between Paris and Tel Aviv. Just this week, the Israeli ambassador in Paris was summoned to the French foreign ministry after two French policemen were briefly detained in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem.

France’s government has attempted to tread a difficult path between responding to Hamas’ attacks on Israel and growing antisemitism at home, and outrage at Israel’s destruction in Gaza and elsewhere. Yet, in the light of recent events in Amsterdam, it is keen to show its commitment to protecting French Jews: Thursday’s match offers the perfect opportunity.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Netflix’s cheaper, ad-supported tier has reached 70 million global monthly active users two years after it was launched.

The company said Tuesday more than 50% of its new sign-ups are for ad-supported plans in countries that offer the option. Netflix said it continues “to see positive momentum and growth across all areas of the business,” adding it has seen “steady progress across all countries’ member bases.”

Netflix launched the option in November 2022 as one of its responses to a slowdown in subscriber growth.

Recently, subscriber growth hasn’t been an issue. Last month Netflix reported it added 5.1 million subscribers during the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates. In total, Netflix counts 282.7 million memberships across all of its pricing tiers.

Beginning next year, Netflix said it will no longer update investors on its subscriber numbers as it shifts focus toward revenue and other financial metrics as performance indicators.

When Netflix launched its ad platform two years ago, the company said Nielsen would rate its content.

Netflix in May announced it would air two National Football League games on Christmas Day this year as part of a three-year deal. On Tuesday it said it sold out of its ad inventory for the two live games.

Netflix also said it’s brought on FanDuel and Verizon as advertisers for the games. FanDuel will become the exclusive pregame sportsbook betting partner, Netflix said, and will have a sponsored in-show feature.

Media companies have been focusing on ad-supported strategies for their streaming options that woo customers with cheaper plans and also offer advertising revenue that can help move the streaming businesses toward profitability. While the ad market has been slow for traditional TV, it has grown for streaming and digital businesses.

Netflix offered its last update on its ad-supported tier in May, when it said it reached 40 million global monthly active users, nearly doubling the figure it had shared in January. That announcement came during Upfronts, when media companies make their pitches to advertisers.

Netflix also announced in May it would launch its own advertising platform, ending a partnership with Microsoft for that technology. It’s rolled out the platform in Canada and plans to launch it in the U.S. by the end of the second quarter next year. It plans to set the platform live everywhere by the end of 2025.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius pulls the curtain back on the updated Relative Rotation Graphs that are now available on the StockCharts website. He demonstrates a myriad of new features, including alignment of the intraday time frames with SharpCharts/ACP, zoom and position control with your mouse, and increased flexibility with selecting and/or highlighting tails. Julius finishes with a brief update on the S&P 500 chart after the elections.

This video was originally published on November 11, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

At least 15 people have been killed and 14 injured in clashes between inmates at one of Ecuador’s largest and most notorious prisons, local authorities say.

The violence broke out early Tuesday in one of the pavilions at Litoral Penitentiary in the coastal city of Guayaquil, according to national prison agency SNAI.

Both Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, and the prison itself are notorious for violent confrontations between rival gangs.

By Tuesday afternoon, authorities said they had managed to regain control of the prison and carried out a large-scale search.

Murder charges will be filed against at least nine inmates, the Attorney General’s Office said.

Ecuador’s prison system has long been the main theater of violence in the country, with hundreds of inmates killed in recent years as members of competing criminal organizations square off.

Security forces have often struggled to confront the gangs inside the overcrowded facilities, where inmates have been known to take control of branches of the penitentiaries and run criminal networks from behind bars, according to Ecuadorian authorities.

This is just the latest violent episode at Litoral Penitentiary, which has seen riots and massacres in recent years and is widely considered the country’s most dangerous prison.

Last year, more than 30 people were killed, some of them beheaded, during a multi-day uprising at the prison, while in September 2021, clashes between rival gangs left more than 100 people dead.

Two months ago, the penitentiary’s director María Daniela Icaza was killed in an armed attack while she was driving home.

Litoral Penitentiary is among five facilities that make up a major prison complex in Guayaquil.

In January, notorious gang leader José Adolfo “Fito” Macías escaped from one of those facilities, in a jailbreak that kicked off a wave of violence across the country.

Following the escape, President Daniel Noboa declared a state of emergency, deploying the armed forces across the country to crack down on gangs and criminal groups.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Wall Street dealmakers and corporate leaders expect the flood gates to open on merger and acquisition activity after President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

And he’ll likely have congressional help. Trump defeated Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republicans claimed a majority of the Senate in elections this week. That red wave is expected to spell loosening regulations on deal-making, with plenty of pent-up demand.

“We know kind of where the world is headed in a Trump environment because we’ve seen it before,” said Jeffrey Solomon, president of TD Cowen, on CNBC’s “Money Movers” Wednesday. “I think the regulatory environment will be much more conducive to economic growth. There will be lighter and targeted regulation.”

Solomon added that the scaled-back regulation will be focused on certain areas “of particular interest to the Trump administration,” rather than a broad based reassessment of the entire landscape.

In recent years, there has been greater scrutiny of pending deals by the Biden administration’s Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission, headed by Chair Lina Khan. Some have pointed to that dynamic as a chilling factor on deal flow. High interest rates and soaring company valuations have contributed, too.

Khan said in September that “when you see greater scrutiny of mergers, you can see greater deterrence of illegal mergers.” Her hard line has drawn harsh criticism, but now, there’s optimism around a forthcoming FTC with a lighter hand.

“Assuming interest rates drop and you see corporate tax rates go down, the ingredients are there for a really active M&A market,” said one top dealmaker, who talked to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly.

On Wednesday, markets rallied on the Republican presidential win, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring 1,500 points to a new record high.

Some sectors, including financial and pharmaceutical industries in particular, are likely to get a lift under a second Trump regime, experts said.

Pharmaceutical executives are especially optimistic that lighter antitrust enforcement could clear the way for deal-making, said one health-care-focused M&A advisor, who added that antitrust enforcement could have “hardly gotten worse” under either administration but now believes things will improve “meaningfully.”

Khan has taken on scores of biopharma mergers over the last four years, arguing that monopolies will stifle the development of new drugs in certain disease areas and hurt consumer choice. Biotech company Illumina last year said it would divest diagnostic test maker Grail after heated battles with the FTC and European antitrust regulators.

Also last year, the FTC blocked Sanofi’s proposed acquisition of a drug in development for Pompe disease, a genetic condition, from Maze Therapeutics. Sanofi ultimately terminated that deal.

“Whether or not Lina Khan is bounced day one is a key consideration, but even if fewer changes at the FTC take place, there is no doubt this administration — at least on paper — will be far more amicable when it comes to business combinations,” Jared Holz, Mizuho health-care equity strategist, said in an email on Wednesday.

One top dealmaker expected an M&A uptick broadly, but agreed that pharmaceuticals and the financial sector were particularly poised for a resurgence. That deal-maker also noted that with the Senate flipping, more outspoken antitrust voices like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., could find it more difficult to push for DOJ or FTC investigations.

In the financial sector regional banks recognize the need for scale, making them likely candidates for consolidation, said one former industry executive, noting that smaller banks had been getting gobbled up for “some time.” That person expects the pace and size of those acquisitions to ramp up under a Trump presidency.

Other industries, such as tech, may still face an uphill battle in getting deals done.

One M&A advisor, who also spoke to CNBC anonymously, noted that Trump’s disdain for Big Tech companies — historically active deal-makers — might keep them on the sidelines. On Wednesday, tech leaders took to social media to congratulate Trump.

Apparent GOP opposition to the CHIPS Act means that semiconductor consolidation might be challenging, the advisor noted, while cautioning it is still too early to know what a Trump presidency would mean. CNBC previously reported that Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a potential takeover.

“I think the simplest way to put it is more deals, less regulation with the administration having its thumb on the scale, perhaps with a willingness to pick winners and losers,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investments.

A Trump presidency could usher in a number of retail deals that have been hamstrung by the FTC. Kroger’s bid to take over grocery chain Albertsons could have a better chance of getting approved under Trump, as could Tapestry’s proposed acquisition of Capri.

The merger between Kroger and Albertsons is currently under review by a federal judge, while Tapestry is working to appeal a federal order that granted the FTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction against the tie-up.

“The hostile approach of the FTC to mergers and acquisitions will almost certainly be reset and replaced with a worldview that is more favorable to corporate dealmaking,” said GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders. “This does not necessarily mean that big deals like Kroger-Albertsons will be waved through, but it does mean others like Tapestry-Capri will receive a far warmer reception than they have under the Biden administration.”

Meanwhile, ongoing turmoil in the media industry has led many to consider consolidation as the next step for the sector.

Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav on Thursday highlighted opportunities that could come up if regulations were to loosen, doubling down on comments he made earlier this year at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference.

“We have an upcoming new administration. … It’s too early to tell, but it may offer a pace of change and opportunity for consolidation that may be quite different, that would provide a real positive and accelerated impact on this industry that’s needed,” Zaslav said on an earnings call.

Broadcast station group owner Sinclair on Wednesday echoed a similar sentiment.

“We’re very excited about the upcoming regulatory environment,” CEO Chris Ripley said during an earnings call. “It does feel like a cloud over the industry is lifting here.”

Still, the track record between the previous Trump administration and the Biden administration for media industry deals is split.

Trump’s DOJ allowed Disney to buy Fox’s assets, but then sued to block AT&T’s deal for Time Warner.

Under the Biden administration, Amazon’s $8.5 billion deal for MGM and the merger of Warner Bros. and Discovery Communications were both waved through, but a federal judge blocked the $2.2 billion sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House.

Skydance Media and Paramount Global agreed to merge earlier this year and expect to receive regulatory approval in 2025.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Today Carl compares this week’s Trump Rally with the rally we saw after Reagan was elected in 1980. There are similarities and differences. The Trump rally has lifted certain sectors of the market as well as Cryptocurrencies. While the Reagan rally had different catalysts.

The market continues to make new all-time highs. Carl gives us the full analysis picture as he covers the market in general as well as Bitcoin, Gold, the Dollar and many more.

It is time for another review of the Magnificent Seven in the short and intermediate terms. Some are positioned well while others are showing weakness.

Erin covers sector rotation with a special study of the small-cap stocks that are soaring higher on the Trump election. Are overbought conditions a problem? Overbought conditions can persist in a bull market move and that is exactly what we have right now.

The pair finish the program looking at viewer symbol requests which were heavy on Semiconductors. How do they compare with NVDA?

Join us live on Mondays at Noon ET by registering to attend at https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g

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01:33 Trump Rally vs. Reagan Rally

06:21 Market Overview

14:41 Magnificent Seven

21:15 Sector Rotation and Small-Caps

29:42 Symbol Requests


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon made a “formal and unreserved” apology in Parliament on Tuesday for the widespread abuse, torture and neglect of hundreds of thousands of children and vulnerable adults in care, many of them Indigenous.

“It was horrific. It was heartbreaking. It was wrong. And it should never have happened,” Luxon said, as he spoke to lawmakers and a public gallery packed with survivors of the abuse.

An estimated 200,000 people in state, foster and faith-based care suffered “unimaginable” abuse over a period of seven decades, a blistering report released in July said at the end of the largest inquiry ever undertaken in New Zealand.

“For many of you it changed the course of your life, and for that, the government must take responsibility,” Luxon said.

“Words do matter and I say these words with sincerity: I have read your stories, and I believe you,” he added. The Prime Minister was apologizing on behalf of previous governments too, he said.

The results were a “national disgrace,” the inquiry’s report said, after a six-year investigation believed to be the widest-ranging of comparable probes worldwide. Of 650,000 children and vulnerable adults in state, foster, and church care between 1950 and 2019 — in a country that today has a population of 5 million — nearly a third endured physical, sexual, verbal or psychological abuse. Many more were exploited or neglected.

They were disproportionately Maori, New Zealand’s Indigenous people.

In response to the findings, New Zealand’s government agreed for the first time that historical treatment of some children in a notorious state-run hospital amounted to torture, and pledged an apology to all those abused in state, foster and religious care since 1950.

Luxon’s government was decried by some survivors and advocates earlier Tuesday ahead of the apology for not yet having divulged plans for the financial compensation of those abused.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Since September 1, the Ukrainian capital Kyiv has been spared from Russian drone attacks on just one night – October 14.

Every other night, many of its 4.5 million residents have been woken by sirens and rushed to some form of shelter or hidden in their bathrooms.

In the first week of November alone, sirens blared for 43 hours.

The onslaught is just one indicator of Russia’s ability to prosecute its assault at full throttle, even as Ukraine faces deep uncertainty about future support from the US and Europe.

The cities of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa have also suffered frequent drone and missile strikes in recent weeks in what appears to be a renewed Russian effort to break the resolve of Ukrainian civilians.

On Saturday night, Ukrainian air defenses detected a record 145 incoming Shahed drones.

The spike in attacks on cities comes as Russian forces continue to make incremental gains in Donetsk, while Ukrainian units suffer from manpower shortages and are increasingly stretched along the vast front line.

‘Constant anxiety’

Viktoria Kovalchuk said that after debris from a drone fell close to her home last week her 6-year-old son Teo was “very scared and grabbed onto me.”

Kovalchuk said Teo was in a state of constant anxiety. “For the past two months, when the shelling has become more frequent, we have been hiding in the bathroom or going down to the shelter in the basement,” Kovalchuk said.

“I don’t remember when we had a proper night’s sleep.”

“We will restore everything on our own and continue to work as we have been doing,” he insisted.

Alarms alone are hugely disruptive to the city’s life. Bridges close, public transport is halted, and the two parts of the capital either side of the Dnipro river are effectively cut off.

Many children don’t come to school during alerts, Usov said.

Many air defense batteries are run by volunteers from all walks of life – among them one of the judges on Ukraine’s Supreme Court, Yuriy Chumak.

“We have been doing this for over two years,” he said, but the intensity of drone attacks had peaked over the past two to three months.

Their equipment is low-tech – machine-guns on the roofs of eight high-rise buildings. “Drones were flying low, (so) it was realistic and cheap to shoot them down with a machine gun.”

“At night, we are on duty continuously. There are attacks every day now,” Chumak added.

The drone attacks seem calculated to instil fear rather than cause mass casualties, but several people have been killed in recent weeks. Among them was 15-year-old Mariya Troyanivska, described by her Kyiv school as an inspiration “who loved life and gave joy to everyone around her.”

The relentless attacks do appear to be eroding morale. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology regularly asks people whether Ukraine should continue fighting for as long as it takes. The number saying yes has fallen from 73% in February to 63% last month.

‘Difficult’ front lines

That perception is likely fed by news from the front, where Russian assaults continue to erode Ukrainian defenses, especially close to the key hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk.

The commander in chief of the military, Oleksander Syrskyi, said Saturday that, “the situation remains difficult and tends to escalate. The enemy, taking advantage of its numerical superiority, continues to conduct offensive actions and focuses its main efforts on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.”

After a two-week trip to Ukraine last month, analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting said the key problem is to integrate newly mobilized troops.

Muzyka posted on X that the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian region of Kursk “has stretched the already small Ukrainian forces even further.”

The Ukrainians are using a variety of battlefield drones to inflict losses on the Russians. Syrskyi said more than 52,000 enemy targets were destroyed or damaged by drones in October alone.

But drones cannot compensate for a shortage of infantry, Muzyka reflected. Despite a law passed earlier this year to improve mobilization, “the presence of newly mobilized units/soldiers is practically imperceptible.”

“We have a situation in which the Ukrainians not only cannot keep up with replacing losses, but also lose soldiers at an increasingly rapid pace due to falling morale,” Muzyka said on X.

Russian forces have become more adept at exploiting weaker points on the front line, enabling them to eat away at Ukrainian defenses within 6 miles (10 km) of Pokrovsk.

On many other parts of the 600-mile frontline, the Ukrainians are also on the defensive, with some analysts expecting another Russian push in the south. The only gains for the Ukrainians this year have been inside Russia, where they launched a surprise incursion in the Kursk region in August.

The negative outlook has darkened the mood among Ukraine’s allies, who talk much less about Kyiv prevailing on the battlefield – and much more about it holding enough ground to force the Kremlin to negotiate.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin implied as much. “No single capability will turn the tide. No one system will end Putin’s assault. What matters is the combined effects of Ukraine’s military capabilities — and staying focused on what works.”

Rym Montaz of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, assesses that there is a “growing, quiet consensus that negotiations, which will entail accepting at least a temporary loss of sovereignty over territories, are the only way to end this war.”

“Kyiv is at one of its weakest points since February 2022, and the prospect of selling such a negotiation is a political minefield” for Zelensky, Montaz says.

Victory, defined by the Ukrainian government as ousting Russian troops from all its territory, is widely seen as unattainable.

In a new essay in Foreign Affairs, Richard Haass says that “Washington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome.”

“There is no game-changing weapon or lifted restriction that would allow Ukraine to simultaneously defend what it already controls and liberate what it does not,” Haas writes.

Ukrainian officials are putting a brave face on a gloomy outlook.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Saturday: “I am convinced that we are all united by the goal of achieving a just peace for Ukraine and stopping Russian aggression … We are talking about a just peace, not appeasement.”

The path to any negotiation is – to put it mildly – unclear. The Kremlin says its goals in Ukraine are unchanged: the annexation of four eastern and southern Ukrainian regions. Russian forces already occupy almost all of Luhansk and substantial parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – altogether some 20% of Ukraine.

“If Ukraine wants to persuade Russia to join peace talks, it must first stabilize the front and rebuild its forces enough to be able to conduct offensives,” says Muzyka.

Talk of how to end the conflict will now go into overdrive with Donald Trump’s election triumph. Trump has previously said he could end the war in 24 hours and in September he declared: “I think it’s in the US’ best interest to get this war finished and just get it done.”

One option favored by his vice president-elect, JD Vance, is to freeze the conflict on its current lines with a heavily fortified demilitarized zone to deter future Russian aggression. Along a poorly defined front line hundreds of miles long, that would be a daunting and perhaps impossible task.

It would reward the Kremlin with control of territories already seized. Moscow would also demand guarantees of Ukraine’s neutrality or at least the indefinite suspension of its drive to join NATO.

Even if on the backfoot, this would be impossible for President Volodymyr Zelensky to swallow without guarantees of Ukraine’s future security. And after the sacrifices of the past 1,000 days, it would also be unpalatable to many Ukrainians.

But the destination may be changing.

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