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November 23, 2024

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Even though trading based on chart analysis involves some discretionary decisions, chartists can improve the odds of success by systematizing their process. This report will show four prerequisite filters based on a top-down approach. We will start with the broader market, look at the sector, and then apply two qualifying filters to the stock.

First, I would make sure we are in a bull market. The chart below shows SPY hitting a new high in early November and trading well above its rising 200-day. This is clearly bullish for the market as a whole.

Second, I would ensure the sector is also in a long-term uptrend. TJX Cos (TJX) is part of the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and this sector recorded a new high in September. It fell back into November, but remains above its rising 200-day SMA, and in a long-term uptrend. Note that TJX featured in our report and video on Friday. Click here to join and get two bonus reports.  

Also notice that XLP is breaking out this week. The ETF formed a falling wedge and retraced 50-62.18% of the July-September advance. Both the pattern and the retracement are normal for corrections within bigger uptrends. XLP is breaking out of the wedge to signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend.

Turning to the stock filters, I want the stock to be in a long-term uptrend and to show upside leadership. On the TJX chart below, prices are moving from the lower left to the upper right, and the stock recorded a new high this month. Stocks hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and show upside leadership. Also notice that the 10-day EMA is 9.8% above the 200-day EMA. The bottom indicator shows the PPO (10,200,0), capturing the percentage difference between these two EMAs.

TJX meets all the prerequisites and also sports a bullish breakout on the price chart. After surging to a new high in mid August, the stock consolidated with a triangle. A consolidation within an uptrend is a bullish continuation pattern. TJX broke out with a strong move in November and this signals a continuation of the uptrend. Re-evaluation support is set at 112. 

Highlights from Recent Reports/Videos:

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Ukraine has been hit by a surge in Russian ballistic missile attacks, about a third of which used North Korean weapons that can only fly because they run on Western circuitry, obtained despite sanctions, according to Ukrainian military officials.

August and September saw a spike in ballistic missile attacks, when Ukraine first publicly detailed the use of the KN-23.

These less-sophisticated missiles are part of North Korea’s growing support to Moscow, which also includes about 11,000 North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.

Crucial components used in the North Korean missiles are produced by nine Western manufacturers, including companies based in the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, according to a recent report by Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a civil society organization. Some parts of the KN-23/24 missiles they analyzed were produced as recently as 2023, suggesting a swift delivery pipeline to North Korea.

The warehouse was full of damaged drones and burned missile parts. In different buildings, hundreds of microchips were carefully separated into folders named for various weapons used by Russia – “Shahed,” “Iskander,” and “KN-23.”

“Everything that works to guide the missile, to make it fly, is all foreign components. All the electronics are foreign. There is nothing Korean in it,” said Andriy Kulchytskyi, head of the Military Research Laboratory of Kyiv’s Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise.

“The only thing Korean is the metal, which quickly rusts and corrodes,” he added.

A Ukrainian Defense Intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said their investigations are hampered by the damage to the missile fragments, but it’s still possible to determine that “the vast majority of components are Western components. Probably 70% are American, from well-known companies […] They also use components made in Germany and Switzerland.”

A report released earlier this year by the UK-based investigative organization Conflict Armament Research, or CAR, found that 75% of components in one of the first North Korean missiles used to attack Ukraine were from US-based companies.

Sanctioned goods move though China

There is no reliable information on how exactly the components make their way into North Korea, according to weapons-tracing experts. But all signs to point to China as the likely conduit, experts say.

“We have successfully traced some of those components, and the last known custodians are Chinese companies,” said Damien Spleeters, deputy director of operations at CAR, which works to independently document diverted weapons. That means Chinese firms bought the components from manufacturers and a series of intermediaries.

CAR has a policy of not “naming and shaming” specific manufacturers because there is no evidence the firms deliberately shipped the parts to North Korea.

“Some parts of these components may be actually fake and made in China,” said Victoria Vyshnivska, a senior researcher at NAKO. “But we cannot be 100% sure,” she added, as the companies in question often failed to respond to questions.

One manufacturer was able to provide NAKO with evidence that a low-value electronic component found in a North Korean missile was counterfeit.

CAR and others consider that middleman distribution companies – not manufacturers – are the primary issue.

There are more than 250 companies whose components have been identified in North Korean missiles, according to CAR. But the majority of those electronics are sold to five main distributors, which are all based in the United States and Canada. CAR is urging policymakers to focus more effort on regulating those distribution companies.

The US Commerce Department has already stepped up its targeting of entities and shell companies that have shipped sanctioned goods to Russia and Belarus.

Ukrainian officials argue the poor enforcement of the sanctions regime by Western nations is one major issue.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for sanctions policy, said he was hopeful the incoming Trump administration would seek greater control over the illicit trade.

That echoes the sentiment of the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, which earlier this year slammed US manufacturers for not doing enough to vet potential buyers, despite having adequate “resources, funding, and knowledge.”

“Our findings reveal a distinct disinterest in evaluating and improving corporate compliance practices and particularly, monitoring those distributors, the middlemen,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) in September.

Components also continue to be diverted to Iran and to Russia directly, according to the Ukrainian intelligence official.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

U.S. prosecutors have charged Gautam Adani, India’s second-richest person, with fraud over accusations that he and several alleged co-conspirators sought to pay $250 million in bribes to Indian officials.

The U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn, New York, accused the executives, most of them Indian, on Wednesday of obtaining funds from investors in the U.S. and other international lenders “on the basis of false and misleading statements” while, authorities say, they bribed Indian officials as they sought billions in solar power contracts.

“The defendants orchestrated an elaborate scheme to bribe Indian government officials to secure contracts worth billions of dollars,” U.S. Attorney Breon Peace said in a release accompanying the indictment. The defendants then “lied about the bribery scheme as they sought to raise capital from U.S. and international investors,” Peace said.

The scheme, according to prosecutors, occurred from 2020 to this year.

Sagar Adani, Adani’s nephew, is also named as a defendant. The Securities and Exchange Commission separately announced charges of civil fraud Wednesday.

Gautam Adani, 62, who is worth about $70 billion, according to Forbes, heads Adani Group, an industrial conglomerate that holds stakes in logistics and energy units. Adani Group itself is not named in the indictment, which refers to an unnamed “Indian renewable-energy company” that was “a portfolio company of an Indian conglomerate.”

The SEC complaint, meanwhile, directly names Adani Green Energy Ltd., a unit of Adani Group.

In a statement on Thursday, Adani Group denied the allegations, calling them “baseless.”

“The Adani Group has always upheld and is steadfastly committed to maintaining the highest standards of governance, transparency and regulatory compliance across all jurisdictions of its operations,” a spokesperson said in a statement. “We assure our stakeholders, partners and employees that we are a law-abiding organization, fully compliant with all laws.”

The news sent shares of Adani Group companies plunging in India on Thursday, CNBC reported. Its flagship Adani Enterprises fell 23%, while Adani Energy fell 20%. Adani Green Energy, the company at the center of the bribery allegations, was down 18.95%.

Adani Green Energy also canceled plans to sell $600 million in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds.

India’s opposition party has accused Adani of benefiting from his strong ties to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“We know that there is going to be no government institution that is going to help put Mr. Adani where he belongs,” Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Indian National Congress, said Thursday. “We know that because the entire government is controlled by the prime minister.”

Last year, a prominent U.S. short-seller, or a firm that bets on the price of another company’s stock to fall, accused Adani Group of fraud, highlighting alleged discrepancies in its official filings.

The findings from the short-seller, Hindenburg Research, caused Adani Group shares to tumble — but they ended up recovering following a favorable ruling related to the allegations by India’s Supreme Court.

Modi never commented publicly on the Hindenburg allegations.

“Since releasing our January 2023 report identifying Adani as the largest corporate con in history, we have never wavered in our view,” Hindenburg said in an emailed statement on Wednesday, “nor has Adani ever refuted our findings.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS