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Nvidia dethroned Apple as the world’s most valuable company on Friday following a record-setting rally in the stock, powered by insatiable demand for its specialized artificial intelligence chips.

Nvidia’s stock market value briefly touched $3.53 trillion, slightly above Apple’s $3.52 trillion, LSEG data showed.

Nvidia ended the day up 0.8%, with a market value of $3.47 trillion, while Apple’s shares rose 0.4%, valuing the iPhone maker at $3.52 trillion.

In June, Nvidia briefly became the world’s most valuable company before it was overtaken by Microsoft and Apple. The tech trio’s market capitalizations have been neck-and-neck for several months.

Microsoft’s market value stood at $3.18 trillion, with its stock up 0.8%.

The Silicon Valley chipmaker is the dominant supplier of processors used in AI computing, and the company has become the biggest winner in a race between Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and other heavyweights to dominate the emerging technology.

Known since the 1990s as a designer of processors for videogames, Nvidia’s stock has risen about 18% so far in October, with a string of gains coming after OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, announced a funding round of $6.6 billion.

Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks got a lift on Friday after data storage maker Western Digital reported quarterly profit that beat analysts’ estimates, buoying optimism about data center demand.

“More companies are now embracing artificial intelligence in their everyday tasks and demand remains strong for Nvidia chips,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“It is certainly in a sweet spot and so long as we avoid a big economic downturn in the United States, there is a feeling that companies will continue to invest heavily in AI capabilities, creating a healthy tailwind for Nvidia.”

Nvidia’s shares hit a record high on Tuesday, building on a rally from last week when TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, posted a forecast-beating 54% jump in quarterly profit driven by soaring demand for chips used in AI.

Meanwhile, Apple is struggling with tepid demand for its smartphones. iPhone sales in China slipped 0.3% in the third quarter, while sales of phones made by rival Huawei surged 42%.

With Apple set to report its quarterly results on Thursday, analysts on average see its revenue climbing 5.55% year over year to $94.5 billion, LSEG data showed.

That compares with analysts’ projections for Nvidia of nearly 82% revenue growth to $32.9 billion.

Shares of Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft have an outsized influence on the richly valued technology sector as well as the broader U.S. stock market, with the trio accounting for about a fifth of the S&P 500 index’s weight.

Optimism about the prospects for AI, expectations that the Federal Reserve will considerably bring down U.S. interest rates, and most recently, an upbeat start to the earnings season, helped lift the benchmark S&P 500 to an all-time high last week.

Nvidia’s massive gains have helped boost the stock’s appeal for option traders and the company’s options are among the most traded on any given day in recent months, according to data from options analytics provider Trade Alert.

The stock has surged nearly 190% so far this year as the boom in generative AI led to a series of blowout forecasts from Nvidia.

“The question is whether the revenue stream will last for a long time and will be driven by the emotion of investors rather than by any ability to prove or disprove the thesis that AI is overdone,” said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey.

“I think Nvidia knows that near term, their numbers are likely to be quite remarkable.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Delta Air Lines on Friday filed a lawsuit against CrowdStrike in Georgia, accusing the security software vendor of breach of contract and negligence after an outage in July that brought down millions of computers and prompted 7,000 flight cancellations.

Other airlines recovered more quickly than Atlanta-based Delta, which said the incident reduced revenue by $380 million and brought $170 million in costs. The flawed software update affected computers running Microsoft’s Windows operating system.

Days after the outage, Delta hired David Boies of law firm Boies Schiller Flexner to seek damages from CrowdStrike and Microsoft. Delta asked for damages to cover its losses, along with litigation costs and punitive damages.

“CrowdStrike caused a global catastrophe because it cut corners, took shortcuts, and circumvented the very testing and certification processes it advertised, for its own benefit and profit,” Delta said in its complaint. “If CrowdStrike had tested the Faulty Update on even one computer before deployment, the computer would have crashed.”

Delta had disabled automatic updates from CrowdStrike but this one reached its computers anyway, the airline said in the suit. Delta claimed that CrowdStrike’s Falcon software created and exploited an unauthorized door in Windows that the airline said it never would have allowed.

“The havoc that was created deserves, in my opinion, to be fully compensated for,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC in an interview earlier this month.

CEO George Kurtz has apologized for the incident, and the company has committed to changing its practices to prevent similar events. In August, CrowdStrike lowered its full-year guidance because of a customer commitment package related to the outage.

“While we aimed to reach a business resolution that puts customers first, Delta has chosen a different path,” a CrowdStrike spokesperson told CNBC in an email. “Delta’s claims are based on disproven misinformation, demonstrate a lack of understanding of how modern cybersecurity works, and reflect a desperate attempt to shift blame for its slow recovery away from its failure to modernize its antiquated IT infrastructure.”

Microsoft discussed various potential enhancements with CrowdStrike and other endpoint security software sellers at a summit in September.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them.

As investors, we often get so caught up in one particular market narrative that we are unable to think “outside the box” and consider other possible outcomes. Successful investors I’ve worked with have been exceptionally good at looking at all the possibilities, challenging their own investment thesis by opening themselves up to other options.

Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.  

By the way, we ran through four scenarios for the S&P 500 back in July, and you may be surprised to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop a comment and let me know your vote and what you think will cause that scenario to play out.
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most bullish scenario, where the S&P 500 keeps going with a consistent pace and breaks above 6000 by early December.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkably strong run off the low in early August. This first scenario would mean a continuation of the pace of the current trend, suggesting the SPX would remain above a trendline drawn from the August and September lows. This scenario would include the S&P breaking above 6000 for the first time, and by early December, we’d be wondering how we made it through an entire calendar year with the biggest drawdown sitting at just less than 10%.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Let’s say that Trump wins a second term, and investors see that as a fairly pro-business and pro-market outcome. At the same time, however, new economic data and the November Fed meeting leave investors a little skeptical of the Fed’s ability to navigate the soft landing scenario into early 2025.

The second scenario would mean we drift a bit higher, but breadth conditions break down as investors gravitate to Magnificent 7 stocks and other safe havens as the VIX pushes above 20. We don’t see a major correction into early December, but it still feels like one is just around the corner and everyone’s talking about overvaluations and a potential Q1 pullback.

Dave’s vote: 25%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

A Harris victory could certainly weigh on the markets as we progress through Q4, as we realize how much investors had been pricing in a Republican White House. Skepticism of the Fed reaches a fever pitch as we’re no longer talking about a potential soft landing, but rather when the next major correction will play out. Volume and breadth divergences that have been growing in October continue to play out, and a 2018-style Q4 drop becomes our reality in 2024.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a “doomsday” scenario, where things get bad and stay bad. What if the S&P 500 starts selling off as a frustrating earnings season leads into a contentious election and a November Fed meeting raises more questions than answers? Paul Tudor Jones famously remarked, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” And in this scenario, that’s exactly what we’re facing in December as we wonder where how and why the normal Q4 rally is nowhere to be seen.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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The secular bull market in stocks has been epic both in duration and extent. The NASDAQ 100 Index illustrates this bull run best of all. Using Wyckoff Method classic trendline construction techniques, the chart below illuminates this secular bull phenomena. The stride of the bull market run is set with three points in 2010 and 2011. Drawing a Demand Trendline on the two reaction points and an OverBought (Supply Line) on the intervening high price, the Stride of the advance is defined for the next 14 years (and the bull run is still going strong). The upward trend has ebbed and flowed during the long advance, swinging between the Overbought and OverSold Trendline extremes. And at times throwing over and under these Trendline boundaries. These throwovers typically are long term overbought and oversold conditions. Presently the NASDAQ 100 is above the OverBought threshold of the upward channel, creating the classic Wyckoff throwover. Is this index vulnerable to a reaction back into the channel?  

NASDAQ 100 Index 2008-Present

Extremes in sentiment can be characterized by the classic equity put to call volume ratio. In the lower panel the Put/Call Ratio for CBOE equity option volume is plotted. An extremely low reading for this ratio indicates high call option volume in relation to put option activity. High call activity characterizes broad bullishness by option traders. Conversely, a high reading by this oscillator reflects extreme put volume and reflects intense bearishness. What makes this particular view of the Put/Call indicator noteworthy is the 10 Week Moving Average time frame. The long term construction of this indicator moves slowly and deliberately from Bullish to Bearish extreme and back again. This coincides well with the secular view of the upward striding NDX 100. Note the correlation of the OverBought and OverSold extremes around the edges of the trend channel and how well it syncs up with trading sentiment as defined by the 10 WMA Put/Call ratio.

Two notable conditions on the chart have recently occurred. In the third quarter (July) the NDX­-100 jumped above the Supply Trendline and became classically OverBought. Now, as the fourth quarter gets underway a Test of the July high is underway. Second, during the current Test of the July high the 10 WMA of the Put/Call Ratio has suddenly tumbled down into extreme call volume readings signaling that sentiment has become bullish and frothy, on a longer term 10 week basis!

Sentiment indicators are best evaluated as environmental in nature. Thus signaling that the upward trend of the stock market has suddenly become crowded with bullish speculators and investors. Sentiment indicators tell us when the rewards relative to the risks are high or low. The long term Put/Call Ratio now signals that bullish reward potential is diminished, and the risks are high. 

Wyckoffians would be watching the relationship between the NDX-100 index and the Overbought trendline. Often a decline back into the trend channel from an OverBought condition leads to volatility and a decline toward the Demand Line and an OverSold condition. Note also the position of the 39-week moving average (red dotted line) which is poised at the same level as the upper trend channel line. A drop of the NDX-100 into the channel would breach both of these noteworthy lines. 

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

Video Appearance:

I recently joined Dale ‘Coach’ Pinkert at ForexAnalytix for this discussion of the present position of the stock market and interest rates. To view it (Click here).

Workshop Announcement:

Mastering Long Term Campaign Investing. Join Roman Bogomazov and Bruce Fraser for this Wyckoff Method workshop for developing skills and mental discipline to successfully campaign long term stock trends. To Learn More (Click Here)

In the early hours of Thursday, March 23, 2023, residents in the German town of Kronberg were woken from their sleep by several explosions.

Criminals had blown up an ATM located below a block of flats in the town center.

The attack caused severe damage to the building and forced the evacuation of its inhabitants. According to local media reports, witnesses saw people dressed in dark clothing fleeing in a black car towards a nearby highway.

During the heist, thieves stole 130,000 euros in cash. They also caused an estimated half a million euros worth of collateral damage, according to a report by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, BKA.

Rather than staging dramatic and risky bank robberies, criminal groups in Europe have been targeting ATMs as an easier and more low-key target.

In Germany – Europe’s largest economy – thieves have been blowing up ATMs at a rate of more than one per day in recent years. In a country where cash is still a prevalent payment method, the thefts can prove incredibly lucrative, with criminals pocketing hundreds of thousands of euros in one attack.

Europol has been cracking down on the robberies, carrying out large cross-border operations aimed at taking down the highly-organized criminal gangs behind them.

Earlier this month, authorities from Germany, France and the Netherlands arrested three members of a criminal network who have been carrying out attacks on cash machines using explosives, Europol said in a statement.

Since 2022, the detainees are believed to have looted millions of euros and run up a similar amount in property damage, from 2022 to 2024, Europol said.

The criminal network used locations in France as “hideaway spots” and relied on getaway cars hired from a French rental company, according to the statement.

The arrests came as part of a wider operation by German, French and Dutch investigators, which also saw law enforcement search car rental companies whose vehicles had been used to flee crime scenes, in an “action day” across locations in the three countries.

Europol says that perpetrators have mostly been using solid explosives, mainly derived from fireworks, to explode the cash-filled machines – a dangerous tactic that results in heavy damage. In 2023, the lootings in Germany caused 28.4 million euros worth of secondary damage alone, according to BKA.

Often based in the Netherlands, the gangs “take extreme risks and act unscrupulously,” Europol says, both during the robberies themselves and the ensuing escapes in high-powered vehicles.

The chosen ATMs are often in quieter, residential areas – making them easier targets. According to Europol, this means that they pose a serious harm to buildings and residents. The attacks can crumble building facades and scatter shards of glass.

In some cases, they can even prove fatal.

On November 11, an ATM robbery in the town of Wiernsheim in the German state of Baden Württemberg ended in disaster. After stealing 40,000 euros in cash, a criminal trio from the Netherlands attempted a high-speed getaway in a VW Golf with stolen license plates, according to local media reports. Pursued by police, they drove the wrong way down Germany’s A6 motorway.

Two of the three criminals were caught at a rest stop, but the 30-year-old Dutch driver escaped and continued to drive against the traffic at speeds of up to 200 kilometers per hour, until colliding head-on with a van.

The driver and passenger in the truck were both severely injured, with the passenger dying in hospital days later. The driver, who was also heavily injured, was arrested and later sentenced to life in prison.

A rising crime

Germany has become Europe’s prime target for ATM bombings. And with its penchant for cash payments, it’s not hard to see why.

The country has more than 51,000 ATMs. In comparison, the Netherlands has around 5,000. The majority of Germany’s 83.3 million citizens have to travel no further than one kilometer to reach their nearest ATM, according to the central bank, Bundesbank.

Unlike its European neighbors, who largely transitioned away from cash payments due to the Covid-19 pandemic, cash still plays a significant role in Germany. One half of all transactions in 2023 were made using banknotes and coins, according to Bundesbank.

Germans have a cultural attachment to cash, traditionally viewing it as a safe method of payment. Some say it allows a greater level of privacy, and gives them more control over their expenses.

A 2016 study by the Bundesbank found that cash is particularly prevalent among older generations of Germans, meaning lingering memories of the country’s turbulent recent history could play a role in Germany’s reluctance to go digital.

“Neither digitalisation nor the pandemic have been able to oust cash. When it comes to making payments, cash is still by far the most popular means in Germany,” Bundesbank’s Johannes Beermann said in a post-pandemic press release from 2022.

In terms of location, Germany is also an ideal target for cross-border crime: Neighboring the Netherlands and linked by motorways on some of which speed limits don’t apply. 

A decline in ATM machines in the Netherlands and the introduction of enhanced security measures to crack down on the crime – including the installation of glue protection systems that can render bank notes worthless – has also led Dutch criminals to look further afield, according to Reuters, citing Dutch police.

A 2023 BKA report notes that ATM robberies in Germany have been rising since 2005, although they dropped slightly from 2022 to 2023. Still, Germany counted a total of 461 such robberies in 2023 – the second-highest number since surveys began in 2005.

The report also found that, as with previous years, the number of thefts declined during the summer months in 2023 – when longer daylight hours provide a higher risk of being caught. The majority of the crimes took place on working weekdays, between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m., according to BKA.

“This extensive network has, in part, drawn organized criminal groups from abroad, seeing the density of ATMs and Germany’s demand for cash access as factors in their favor.”

German banks have invested over 300 million euros into enhanced security to tackle the issue, the spokesperson continued, including “alarm systems, ink staining solutions, reinforced locking mechanisms, and fogging technology.” However, certain techniques such as glueing systems to neutralize stolen cash are not currently permitted in Germany, the spokesperson added.

“These efforts, along with enhanced cooperation with police, have effectively reduced ATM attacks, with the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) reporting that 2024 figures are already ‘significantly below last year’s,’” the spokesperson said.

In July, the German government announced that ATM robberies would receive harsher punishment. Thieves must be sentenced to at least two years in prison, when the previous minimum sentence was one year. If the health of an uninvolved person or people is affected, perpetrators must receive prison time ranging from five to fifteen years, up from at least two years previously.

“Anyone who blows up ATMs risks the lives of uninvolved people,” Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said.

“We are dealing here with unscrupulous perpetrators and highly dangerous explosives. These acts must therefore be punished more severely.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An Israeli MP behind a bill that would prevent the main UN agency in Gaza and the West Bank from working in Israel has accused the US ambassador in Israel of lobbying opposition leaders to block the move.

If the bill passes in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, this week, it will prohibit any Israeli official from providing services or dealing with employees of the UN Relief and Works Agency and forbid UNRWA from operating in Israel.

Several countries, including the US, have expressed concern over the impact of the bill.

The Israeli government has claimed that some of the UN Relief and Works Agency’s (UNRWA) staff are affiliated with Hamas. UNRWA has strongly denied the allegations, but several governments suspended funding for the agency earlier this year while the allegations were investigated.

She described the US pressure as unacceptable.

But it said that the proposed legislation would make it impossible for UNRWA to operate and would leave a “vacuum that Israel would then be responsible for filling.” A spokesman said UNRWA provided vital services in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Jordan.

UNRWA has long been a target of Israeli criticism and relations between Israel and the UN have slumped amid the war in Gaza.

Last week, the spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said the IDF had killed a commander of the Hamas ‘Nukhba’ force who had also been employed by UNRWA since July 2022.

Subsequently, Foreign Minister Israel Katz posted on X that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had “reached new heights of hypocrisy and insensitivity. Last night, he lamented the elimination of their ‘UNRWA colleague’ by IDF forces in Gaza.”

In a letter sent to two senior members of the Israeli government earlier this month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Biden administration was “deeply concerned” about the potential adoption of the bill.

“UNRWA colluded with Hamas, it is educating kids to hate Israel and spreading antisemitism, it is selling them stories that they will be able to come back to Israel. This will not happen,” Malinovsky said.

UNRWA says it insists on the neutrality of its staff and said the allegations made by Israel about 66 employees out of 30,000 staff amounted to just 0.22% of its payroll.

“There is absolutely no ground for a blanket description of ‘the institution as a whole’ being ‘totally infiltrated,’” the agency said in May.

Former war cabinet member Benny Gantz posted on X last week that UNRWA “chose to make itself an inseparable component of Hamas’ mechanism – and now is the time to detach ourselves entirely from it.”

On Saturday, the foreign ministers of Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the UK expressed “grave concern” over the legislation.

They said that without UNRWA’s work, the provision of assistance “including education, health care, and fuel distribution in Gaza and the West Bank would be severely hampered if not impossible.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In a dramatic show of unity, Georgia’s often fractured opposition gathered at the presidential palace in Tbilisi, standing shoulder to shoulder behind the president, Salome Zourabichvili, as she defiantly announced, “I do not recognize these elections. Recognizing them would be tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia … We cannot surrender our European future for the sake of future generations.”

The government, controlled by the ruling Georgian Dream party, she said, is “illegitimate” and the election it carried out October 26 was a “complete falsification.”

Her voice rising, she said: “We were not just witnesses but also victims of what can only be described as a Russian special operation – a new form of hybrid warfare waged against our people and our country.”

She urged Georgians to gather in protest Monday evening on the capital’s main street, Rustaveli Avenue, “to peacefully defend every vote and, most importantly, our future.”

The statement was a bold challenge to the Georgian Dream’s founder and now honorary chairman, the reclusive billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who claimed victory in the parliamentary election even before all the votes were counted.

Ivanishvili had vowed to ban the opposition if his party won the election, and his opponents are taking him at his word.

On Saturday, as Georgians cast their ballots, thousands of Georgian and international election observers fanned out to voting precincts across the country, from urban centers to poor, remote villages in the Caucasus mountains, trying to evaluate whether the vote was free and fair.

Throughout election day, video of violations, some of them egregious, like a man boldly jamming ballots into a ballot box, spread quickly.

The day after, at a briefing by the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, the conclusions were troubling: “systematic” intimidation; harassment of voters inside and outside polling stations; “pervasive intimidation and pressure on public sector employees and social-service benefits recipients.”

Observations by the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) were even more stark: “On election day, ISFED documented serious violations, such as ballot stuffing of ballot papers, multiple voting, unprecedented levels of voter bribery, expulsion of observers from polling stations, as well as instances of mobilizing voters outside polling stations, collecting their personal data, and controlling their voting intentions.”

In Tbilisi, former US Representative John Shimkus said the intimidation and harassment of voters created an “atmosphere of fear.”

Swedish Member of Parliament Margareta Cederfelt added: “The government’s continued harassment and intimidation of voters and civil society not only during the election period, but well before it, has threatened Georgia’s democratic underpinnings.”

The Georgian opposition owes its new unity to the efforts of President Zourabichvili, a person some of them used to criticize, but now respect.

“She is on the right side of history,” said opposition politician Nika Gvaramia. “She is the only one who can unite people.”

Speaking at his Ahali party headquarters, part of the “Coalition 4 Change” just off Tbilisi’s main street, Gvaramia, along with Elene Khoshtaria, founder of the “Droa” party, told reporters: “Russia hacked the (Georgian) election.”

Moscow, they claimed, is carrying out a “hybrid war” with new and different means of technical meddling, and it’s right out of “Putin’s playbook.”

The West, they said, isn’t even playing catch up.

Meanwhile, the Georgian government announced that its first high-level visitor after the election will be Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who plans to spend October 28 and 29 in a high-profile show of support to the Georgian Dream government.

The illiberal leader has found common cause with Georgia’s ruling party and was the first international leader to congratulate them after the election – even before the votes were officially tallied.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales said his car was fired on in what he claimed was an “assassination attempt” amid simmering political tensions in the South American country.

Morales, who was not injured, blamed the government for the attack, which he called a “failure” that adds to the “political defeat of a government that has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the Bolivian people.” The government denied any involvement and said that an investigation had been opened.

Morales said he was heading to the radio station in the central Bolivian department of Cochabamba, where he hosts a weekend program, when two vehicles intercepted his car and “four hooded officers dressed in black with weapons in their hands, got out and began to shoot.”

Fourteen bullets hit the car, injuring his driver in the head and arm, Morales said during his radio show.

Morales posted a cell-phone video on Facebook which he claimed shows the alleged attack. It shows the driver’s bloodied head and several bullet holes in the car’s windshield. Morales is seen in the passenger seat as they frantically drive away.

Morales posted to his Instagram profile a statement from his party, Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), blaming the attack on current Bolivian President Luis Arce and two of his government ministers. The statement did not provide evidence supporting this claim.

Bolivia’s Deputy Security Minister Roberto Rios said that there had not been a police operation against Morales and that his department would investigate the claims, including the possibility of a “self-attack” staged by Morales, state-run news agency Agencia Boliviana de Información (ABI) reported.

Power struggle

Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, led the country for more than a decade before he resigned from his office in November 2019 due to mounting accusations of electoral fraud, which he has denied. Ultimately, the leader claimed he was forced out in a coup and fled to Mexico, where he was granted political asylum. His resignation was followed by deadly clashes between Bolivian security forces and Morales supporters.

After a year of exile in Argentina, Morales returned to his home region of Chapare in central Bolivia in 2020, while stating his intention to remain involved in politics.

Throughout the past year, Morales has clashed with sitting president Arce – his fellow MAS party member and former ally – as both politicians battle for reelection in 2025.

The power struggle has unfolded during a period of acute economic strife in Bolivia. In recent weeks, blockades set up by Morales’ supporters on major highways have led to food and fuel shortages in some cities.

The blockades were established after the government announced a judicial investigation into the former president over an alleged case of human trafficking. Morales denies having committed any crime and attributed the investigation to political persecution by Arce.

The Bolivian police have said the blockades involve “violent armed groups.” In a statement, Bolivia’s foreign ministry denounced the “destabilizing actions” from Morales, who they said encouraged the blockades in an attempt to “disrupt the democratic order.”

The political turmoil in Bolivia reached a flashpoint in June with the arrest of a general accused of orchestrating a coup against the government. Armed soldiers and armored vehicles led by Gen. Juan Jose Zúñiga attempted to occupy government offices and break into the government palace to oust Arce.

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Thick, toxic smog has once again enveloped northern India and eastern Pakistan just days before the start of Diwali, a Hindu festival typically celebrated with fireworks that each year sends air quality plummeting.

The air quality index in the Indian capital of Delhi was roughly 250 on Monday morning, after days in the “very unhealthy” zone above 200, according to IQAir, which tracks global air quality.

In the Pakistani city of Lahore, roughly 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the Indian border, air quality surpassed a “hazardous” 500 on Monday – almost 65 times the World Health Organization’s guidelines for healthy air – making it the most polluted city in the world at the time of the ranking, according to IQAir.

Air quality across the region is set to worsen as winter smog season approaches, when an ominous yellow haze blankets the skies due to farmers burning agricultural waste, coal-fired power plants, traffic and windless winter days.

Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, is set to begin Thursday – a five day celebration during which people gather with their families, feast and set off firecrackers, in some cases in defiance of local bans, further exacerbating air pollution.

Dystopian scenes of orange haze and buildings enveloped by fog emerge each year as smog season dominates the news, raising alarm as doctors warn of the risk of respiratory diseases and impacts on life expectancy. India’s air pollution has been found to be so bad, that experts have warned smog could take years off the lives of hundreds of millions of people.

Residents and experts have long questioned why India has failed to curb air pollution, as Delhi and its neighboring states butt heads over who is really to blame.

Delhi had banned the use and sale of firecrackers ahead of Diwali, but the policy has been difficult to implement.

Last week, India’s Supreme Court condemned governments of the Punjab and Haryana states for failing to crack down on illegal stubble burning, the practice whereby farmers set crop waste on fire to clear fields. Local officials claim they have reduced the practice significantly in recent years.

The Indian government also launched its nationwide Clean Air Programme in 2019, ushering in strategies across 24 states and union territories to reduce particulate matter concentration, a term for air pollutants, by 40% by 2026. The measures include cracking down on coal-based power plants, setting up air monitoring systems and banning burning of biomass.

Officials have also begun sprinkling water on roads and even inducing artificial rainfall to combat air pollution in the Indian capital, though experts say these are band-aid solutions that fail to address the underlying issues.

Some Indian cities have seen improvements in their air quality, according to government data, but progress has been slow.

Between 2018 and 2022, New Delhi’s average PM2.5 concentration (a measure of pollutants in the air) for the month of November, when the pollution season typically begins, more or less stayed the same, according to IQAir.

Experts in the past have questioned whether India has the political will to combat pollution.

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