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October 30, 2024

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At least 51 people have died in flash floods in southeastern Spain, the regional government of Valencia said on Wednesday.

Some locations in southern and eastern Spain received up to 12 inches of rain in just a few hours on Tuesday.

Footage from the city of Valencia showed muddy water flooding through the streets, tearing down walls and sweeping away parked cars.

Valencia’s regional leader Carlos Mazón told reporters earlier on Wednesday that some bodies were found as rescue teams began to reach areas previously cut off by the floods, adding, “Out of respect for the families we are not going to give any more details.”

The death toll is expected to rise as authorities said the current figures are “provisional.”

Mazón also urged residents in the provinces of Valencia and Castellón to avoid travelling by road.

The Valencia area averages 77 millimeters (3.03 inches) of rain for the entire month of October.

Chiva, just east of Valencia, received 320 millimeters (12.6 inches) of rain in just over four hours, according to the European Severe Weather Database.

Flooding was also reported in and around the cities of Murcia and Malaga, with more than 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rain falling in some areas.

The human-caused climate crisis is making extreme weather more frequent and more severe, scientists say.

As the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution, it’s driving more frequent and more intense rainfall events. Hotter oceans fuel stronger storms and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture which it wrings out in the form of torrential rainfall.

Rainfall warnings continue through Wednesday for portions of eastern and southern Spain, according to Spain’s Meteorological Agency, AEMET, with the threat of heavy rain expected to continue through the end of the week.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them.

As investors, we often get so caught up in one particular market narrative that we are unable to think “outside the box” and consider other possible outcomes. Successful investors I’ve worked with have been exceptionally good at looking at all the possibilities, challenging their own investment thesis by opening themselves up to other options.

Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.  

By the way, we ran through four scenarios for the S&P 500 back in July, and you may be surprised to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop a comment and let me know your vote and what you think will cause that scenario to play out.
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most bullish scenario, where the S&P 500 keeps going with a consistent pace and breaks above 6000 by early December.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkably strong run off the low in early August. This first scenario would mean a continuation of the pace of the current trend, suggesting the SPX would remain above a trendline drawn from the August and September lows. This scenario would include the S&P breaking above 6000 for the first time, and by early December, we’d be wondering how we made it through an entire calendar year with the biggest drawdown sitting at just less than 10%.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Let’s say that Trump wins a second term, and investors see that as a fairly pro-business and pro-market outcome. At the same time, however, new economic data and the November Fed meeting leave investors a little skeptical of the Fed’s ability to navigate the soft landing scenario into early 2025.

The second scenario would mean we drift a bit higher, but breadth conditions break down as investors gravitate to Magnificent 7 stocks and other safe havens as the VIX pushes above 20. We don’t see a major correction into early December, but it still feels like one is just around the corner and everyone’s talking about overvaluations and a potential Q1 pullback.

Dave’s vote: 25%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

A Harris victory could certainly weigh on the markets as we progress through Q4, as we realize how much investors had been pricing in a Republican White House. Skepticism of the Fed reaches a fever pitch as we’re no longer talking about a potential soft landing, but rather when the next major correction will play out. Volume and breadth divergences that have been growing in October continue to play out, and a 2018-style Q4 drop becomes our reality in 2024.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a “doomsday” scenario, where things get bad and stay bad. What if the S&P 500 starts selling off as a frustrating earnings season leads into a contentious election and a November Fed meeting raises more questions than answers? Paul Tudor Jones famously remarked, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” And in this scenario, that’s exactly what we’re facing in December as we wonder where how and why the normal Q4 rally is nowhere to be seen.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In the fast-paced world of trading, success often hinges on screening for the best ideas in real-time to find trading opportunities. At OptionsPlay, we are committed to providing our users with the latest cutting-edge tools to automate the manual process of researching options trades. This is why we are thrilled to announce a groundbreaking partnership with StockCharts.com, a leader in technical analysis, charting, and screening.

This new integration merges the world-class technical analysis screening capabilities of StockCharts with the powerful real-time options screening and strategy tools of OptionsPlay, delivering fully personalized opportunities for options traders in real-time.

A Powerful Synergy for Traders

This integration represents the best of both worlds for traders and investors. By combining StockCharts’ robust technical analysis platform with OptionsPlay’s dynamic options strategy engine, users now have a single, unified solution that screens technical analysis and options strategies simultaneously in real time.

  • Comprehensive Technical Analysis. StockCharts.com is renowned for its extensive charting tools and real-time screening capabilities.
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One of several effective StockCharts tools you can use to spot potential trading or investing opportunities is to check the New Highs panel in Your Dashboard. This feature highlights stocks hitting new highs—from one-month peaks to 52-week or all-time records—giving you a peek at where Wall Street’s capital may be flowing.

On Monday morning, the one-month new high list top 10 gave us three transportation stocks: Carnival Corp (CCL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and United Airlines (UAL). As you can see below, Carnival, under the Consumer Discretionary sector, occupies the top spot.

FIGURE 1: NEW HIGHS FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2024. We got a ship and two airlines. Which one, if any, might be more tradable or investment-worthy from a technical perspective?Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the transportation industry seems like a suitable prospect for your portfolio, one of the first things you’ll want to do is compare the charts and drill down on the technicals. Let’s start with a PerfCharts view for a quick 200-day comparison of all three stocks.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF CARNIVAL CORP, DELTA AIR LINES, AND UNITED AIRLINES STOCK. United Airlines took off and is now sky-high, with Delta following below while Carnival’s at the bottom with its tide rising.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

With UAL clearly outpacing the other two, it makes you wonder whether the airline has enough fuel to gain more altitude or whether its trajectory is a little too vertical. Carnival, on the other hand, is the underperformer. But does that mean it has more upside to cover, and are we witnessing the beginning of a much larger uptrend?


Note: We’ll look at weekly charts because this time frame provides the clearest key levels for each stock.


Let’s start with a weekly chart of CCL.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF CARNIVAL CORP STOCK. Note the multiple levels of resistance overhead.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

A couple of things to note:

  • CCL’s StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) score has hit or crossed the bullish 90 mark several times in the past four years, but it hasn’t stayed there for long. Each time it peaks, the score drops within a few months, signaling that the stock struggles to maintain technical strength for extended periods.
  • CCL has four resistance levels up ahead, marked by the dotted magenta lines. If you happen to be long the stock, expect heavier profit-taking and selling pressure at each consecutive resistance level all the way up to $31.
  • The stock has broken out of a long-term ascending triangle pattern, which is generally bullish. However, according to the On Balance Volume (OBV), the buying/selling momentum is narrowing as prices rise, signaling not only an intensified state of indecision but also a divergence between price and momentum.

At this point, it’s a wait-and-see, and if price pulls back, keep an eye on the top of the triangle pattern near $19.75 to see if price bounces and what the momentum looks like at that point, specifically on a daily chart. I’m not zooming into the daily chart because the key levels it will give are similar to what you can see on the weekly.

So, how might Carnival Corp. stock perform technically against UAL, which, in the PerfCharts, is outperforming CCL and DAL? Let’s take a look at UAL’s weekly chart.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF UNITED AIRLINES STOCK PRICE. UAL stock’s price action is similar to CCL’s, but the OBV has reversed its downward slope and is rising.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Like CCL in the previous example, UAL’s technical strength, as measured by the SCTR line, also rises above the extremely bullish 90 line, but seems to never sustain that level for too long. However, in contrast to CCL, the buying pressure driving UAL’s valuations, as measured by the OBV, reversed its downward slope and is now rising. Watch out for the Money Flow Index (MFI), which is flashing an overbought signal, indicating a near-term pullback.

Now look at Delta Airlines (DAL), the middle performer on the PerfCharts comparison. Below is the weekly chart.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF DELTA STOCK. The price chart displays deep swing highs and lows in contrast to CCL and UAL.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The approach to DAL will be slightly different, primarily because the stock’s main patterns are driven by swings that are much deeper and more pronounced than those in the other examples.

Note the SCTR line; as price claws its way higher, its overall technical strength, as measured by multiple indicators across several timeframes, failed to reach previous levels above the 90 line. In addition, look at the panels below the chart—the OBV and MFI readings, which both exhibit a bearish divergence in buying pressure. This signals dwindling momentum as DAL’s price establishes a three-year high.

Looking at the chart, note the ZigZag line. This marks the swing high and swing low levels that must hold for the current uptrend to remain intact: while DAL broke above the swing high of $54, signaling a continuation of the uptrend, it must also stay above the swing low of $37 for the uptrend to remain intact.

To that end, I drew a Quadrant Line to measure the strength of the potential upcoming pullback, as suggested by the momentum indicators. For the bulls, a DAL pullback should stay above the last quadrant (above $41) for DAL’s technical strength to remain convincingly bullish.

Add these charts to your ChartLists and monitor their movements in the coming weeks.

Summary in a Nutshell

Each stock presents a longer-term play.

Carnival Corp (CCL)

  • Opportunity: Broke out of a bullish ascending triangle pattern, hinting at potential upside.
  • Risk: Multiple resistance levels ahead; narrowing momentum signals indecision, with heavy selling likely near $31.

United Airlines (UAL)

  • Opportunity: Strong recent performance, with rising buying pressure and outperformance compared to peers.
  • Risk: Overbought Money Flow Index (MFI) suggests a near-term pullback might be imminent.

Delta Airlines (DAL)

  • Opportunity: Currently in an uptrend, breaking past key swing levels.
  • Risk: Dwindling momentum, with bearish divergences in OBV and MFI. The stock must hold above key levels ($41) to maintain bullish strength.

At the Close

You will have to decide for yourself which among the three might be the stronger stock to invest in when the time comes. Again, these are longer-term plays, but if played well, they may present strong investment opportunities. Keep an eye on momentum and key price patterns that could shift.

Bottom line: Add them to your ChartLists and be ready for the next opportunity.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Iran rushed to downplay the impact of Israel’s strikes on its territory this weekend, suggesting that it has taken an off-ramp to avoid a wider war, but the attack set a precedent the Islamic Republic has tried to avoid since its inception 40 years ago.

The adversaries had spent decades avoiding direct confrontation, instead choosing to exchange punches in a shadow war. Israel used clandestine operations to assassinate key Iranian figures and execute cyberattacks on vital facilities as Iran continued activating its Arab proxy militias to attack the Jewish state.

Saturday’s attack marked the first time Israel has acknowledged striking Iran, bringing the shadow war into the open and crossing a threshold that has led some in the Islamic Republic to question the country’s deterrence capabilities.

In April, after Iran attacked Israel in retaliation for what it said was an Israeli attack on its diplomatic building in the Syrian capital Damascus, US officials said Israel responded by attacking Iran just days later. Israel didn’t publicly acknowledge that attack.

The latest attack, however, was different. Israel openly said it conducted “precise strikes” on military targets in Iran.

“Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” Israel’s military spokesman Daniel Hagari said, touting achievements in the attack.

Shortly after the assault, Iran’s state media published images showing everyday life continuing as usual in its cities. Schools continued operating and Tehran’s streets were shown gridlocked with traffic. Hardline commentators mocked the attack on television and social media memes poked fun at the limited nature of the Israeli response.

Internal debate emerging

In his first comments after the attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opted to give a measured response, saying the strikes should “neither be exaggerated nor downplayed.”

But that initial wave of dismissal eventually dissipated, and an internal debate emerged over whether Iran should deliver a harsh response to prevent Israeli strikes from becoming normalized against a regime focused on its own survival.

“The sense is that if they do not respond they will normalize the idea that Israel can strike Tehran without getting a response,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC said, adding that there is a “fear if they don’t do something now Israel will start treating Iran as they did with Syria which means every once in a while, (Israelis will) strike.”

Iranian officials say some military sites sustained “minor damage” that was “swiftly repaired.” Five people were killed, including four army personnel, the Iranian government said.

Experts however say that the damage was more significant than Tehran has acknowledged.

“This (attack) was much more damaging than Iranian officials have led on, Iran’s air defenses and some of the radars that are crucial to identifying incoming missiles, it seems that those were destroyed in the first wave,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Tehran spent years building regional proxies designed to serve as a security umbrella and the first line of defense against Israel. These militias, stationed at Israel’s borders, also acted as a deterrent, discouraging Israel from directly striking Iran. The idea was that if Israel were to strike Iran, Tehran would retaliate by unleashing its militias against Israel.

The longstanding balance of power prevented a regional war – until Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza last year, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. That prompted a fierce Israeli onslaught that has destroyed the enclave and killed more than 42,000 Palestinians. The expansion of that conflict to southern Lebanon led to Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, Iran’s most formidable proxy, and decimated the organization’s commanding hierarchy.

The degrading of Iran’s strongest allied militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the weekend strikes on Iran, have fueled another internal debate in Iran: whether regional proxies are an effective deterrence.

“There are certainly voices within the political establishment who question the efficacy of the ‘forward defense’ doctrine, or the notion that Iran’s regional alliance network can provide a security umbrella. If that is changing, one natural aspect of the debate is what could take place to restore deterrence,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, the editor of Amwaj.media, a London-based news site focusing on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula.

The nuclear option

Since the Trump administration abandoned the nuclear agreement with Tehran in 2018, to put curbs on its nuclear program, the Islamic Republic has been gradually ramping up enrichment of uranium, a key ingredient of a nuclear bomb if purified to a high level. Its stockpiles have reached 60% purity, a short step away from weapons-grade, which is 90%.

Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that they have no intention of weaponizing the country’s nuclear program, while simultaneously using its potential as leverage in negotiations with the West.

As Israel continues disintegrating Iran’s deterrence capability, the minority voices in the Islamic Republic favoring the weaponization of its nuclear program are becoming stronger, Parsi said. “The trajectory and momentum are with those who are saying if Iran actually had a nuclear deterrence this would not be happening.”

Experts cast doubt over Iran’s ability to quickly build a nuclear weapon even if it can purify uranium to weapons grade. The process to build and test an atomic bomb may take years, leaving Iran vulnerable to Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities.

The nuclear bomb option is “much more public now” and has become “normalized in conversation,” but Israel has been able to derail Iran’s nuclear program in the past and may be able to do it again, Grajewski said.

Parsi said if the Israelis were to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, regardless of whether the Iranians can get a bomb quickly or not, Tehran will seek to build a nuclear weapon.

“Even the more hawkish American presidents have not favored taking military strikes because the most likely outcome is that, at some point, that will make Iran turn nuclear,” Parsi said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Tuesday it had taken the Ukrainian town of Selydove, southeast of the key city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Russian forces have been advancing on Selydove in the last several weeks, according to frontline reports. It’s part of Russia’s ongoing assault and incremental territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.

Selydove was an important staging area for Ukraine’s defenses and a key foothold to prevent Russia’s advance toward Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on Russia’s claims of control.

“[Russia] continues to assault with very large troop numbers. They used reserves from the north of the frontline’s Pokrovsk section to increase pressure on Selydove,” 15th brigade national guard spokesman Vitaliy Milovidov said.

“At the same time, the enemy is not destroying the city’s infrastructure,” he added. “Most likely, they want to keep the town as a foothold for themselves in the future. Selydove is a large town where you can accommodate a large number of people and hide equipment.”

Video released by Russian state media TASS on Tuesday reportedly shows troops raising the Russian flag in Selydove.

Russia also continued aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities overnight into Tuesday.

At least nine Ukrainian people were killed and 46 injured across the country as Russian forces attacked the cities of Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih and the capital Kyiv. In the Odesa region, a 71-year-old man was killed by falling debris following an intercepted Russian missile strike launched by a fighter jet from the Black Sea.

In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, a Russian bomb destroyed much of the Derzhprom building, one of the most celebrated landmarks, which is considered a cultural monument due to its modernist architecture.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The teenager charged with the murder of three young girls in a July stabbing attack at a dance class in northwest England will face a terrorism charge, British prosecutors announced Tuesday.

The suspect Axel Rudakubana, who was 17 at the time of the attack but is now 18, will be charged with the production of the biological toxin ricin, and possession of information likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing to commit an act of terrorism, the United Kingdom’s Crown Prosecution Service said in a statement.

Rudakubana will appear at Westminster Magistrates Court via videolink on Wednesday, police added.

The new charges he faces in relation to the attack in the town of Southport, England, are in addition to three charges of murder, 10 charges of attempted murder and one charge of possession of a knife. A trial is expected to begin in January 2025.

Three young girls – Bebe King, 6, Elsie Dot Stancombe, 7, and 9-year-old Alice da Silva Aguiar – were stabbed to death while attending a Taylor Swift-themed class in Southport in July, in one of the worst assaults against children in the country in decades. Eight other children also suffered stab wounds in the attack.

The fresh charges came after local police conducted searches of the suspect’s home, Merseyside Chief Constable Chief Constable Serena Kennedy said on Tuesday.

“Searches of Axel Rudakubana’s home address resulted in an unknown substance being found – testing confirmed the substance was ricin,” Kennedy told reporters at a news conference.

“We have worked extensively with partners to establish that there was a low to very low risk to the public – and I want to make that reassurance clear today.”

She added: “When the ricin was discovered, all necessary steps were taken so we could be sure that no one was at risk. This was a multi-agency response. Expert advice, and guidance was received and adhered to throughout the investigation.”

Dr. Renu Bindra, a senior medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, told the news conference that the authority was brought in to conduct a public health risk assessment and that “there was no evidence that any victims, responders or members of the public were exposed to ricin either as part of the incident or afterwards.”

The risk assessment “judged that the risk to the community and to the wider public was low,” Bindra said.

The attack on July 29 has not been declared a terrorist incident, the police chief said.

“I recognise that the new charges may lead to speculation. The matter for which Axel Rudakubana has been charged with under the Terrorism Act does not require motive to be established. For a matter to be declared a terrorist incident, motivation would need to be established,” Kennedy explained.

In the days after the tragic incident, dozens of protests erupted in several locations around the country. Several of the demonstrations erupted into riots after an anti-immigrant misinformation campaign stoked outrage and far-right agitators targeted hotels housing asylum-seekers.

It was the worst disorder seen in the UK in more than a decade, with more than 1,000 people arrested and hundreds sentenced to jail.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The photo shows a large crowd of more than 200 people, crouching low amid the rubble of Jabalya in northern Gaza. Mostly men, many are almost naked, some are elderly, some visibly wounded. There’s at least one child among them.

Their tired faces give a glimpse into their misery. The men at the front are anxiously staring straight ahead, while those toward the back stretch their necks to see what is going on.

The photo, taken in Jabalya on Friday, shows residents of the refugee camp who tried to leave the area after being forced by the Israeli military to evacuate amid its ongoing ground operation there.

According to Khalaf, the men in the crowd seen in the photograph were asked to come forward five at a time, to be screened by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) before being allowed to proceed to Gaza City, which has been designated by the Israeli military as a safe place.

“Some individuals were selected for detention while others were released. Most of us ended up in Gaza City. The situation was terrifying and deeply saddening as we witnessed elderly men and injured individuals in distress, with no one showing them compassion or mercy.”

The little girl seen in the photograph is Jouri Abu Ward. The three-and-a-half-year-old was riding her bike, trying to get to Gaza City, when she and her father were detained at the checkpoint.

Repeated strip-searches in Gaza

The IDF encircled Jabalya and launched a new ground operation there more than three weeks ago, cutting off most supplies and forcing people to leave amid heavy fighting. The IDF said it saw signs of Hamas rebuilding in the area, despite a year of heavy bombardment and two previous ground operations which the IDF had claimed were successful.

Due to security protocol, “clothes are not immediately returned to the detainees,” the IDF statement continued, adding that the clothes are returned as soon as it is “possible to do so”

The Geneva Conventions, a set of international laws that set out the rules of armed conflict, says that any detainees must be treated humanely. The rules explicitly prohibit acts that “outrage upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment.”

The International Red Cross says that intrusive searches, including strip searches of detainees “should be undertaken only if absolutely necessary” and not in front of other detainees.

The United Nations and other human rights organizations have criticized Israel’s military for detaining and stripping people during its military campaign in Gaza, accusing it of weaponizing the practice.

The UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel said last month that it found that “forced nudity, with the aim of degrading and humiliating victims in front of both soldiers and other detainees, was frequently used against male victims.”

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International also condemned Israel for what they said was a widespread practice.

In a July 2024 report about Israel’s treatment of detainees and prisoners, Amnesty International said that public forced nudity for long durations violates the prohibition of torture and other ill-treatment and amounts to sexual violence.

Human Rights Watch has also accused the Israeli government of allowing these kinds of practices. “Israeli authorities have for months turned a blind eye as members of their military published dehumanizing fully or seminude images and videos of Palestinians in their custody,” said Balkees Jarrah, acting Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Portions of southern and eastern Spain were hit by severe flash flooding on Tuesday, as some locations received up to 12 inches of rain in just a few hours.

Footage from the city of Valencia showed mud-colored water flooding through the streets, tearing down walls, and sweeping away parked cars.

Extreme rain warnings were in effect for some areas including around Valencia, according to Spain’s Meteorological Agency, AEMET. These warnings called for the potential of 200 mm (4 inches) of rain in less than 12 hours.

In some locations, the rainfall estimates were exceeded in even shorter periods of time. Chiva, which is east of Valencia, received 320 mm of rain in just over four hours, according to the European Severe Weather Database.

The Valencia area averages 77 mm (3.03 inches) for the entire month of October.

Flooding was also reported in and around Murcia and Malaga with over 100 mm (4 inches) of rain falling in some of these areas.

A strong upper level low pressure is moving northward into the region from Africa.  The strong system is bringing a significant amount of atmospheric instability to the region.  Extreme amounts of rainfall are also being enhanced with moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and upslope flow into higher terrain which acts to squeeze out additional moisture.

Rainfall warnings continue through Wednesday for portions of eastern and southern Spain, according to AEMET. The warnings north of Valencia are for rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm (4 inches) and rainfall rates of 30 mm per hour (1.18 inches per hour).

Areas of southwestern Spain will see the threat of heavy rain continue through the end of the week.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Montecarlo is a small city in the province of Misiones, Argentina, with just under 20,000 inhabitants. Those who walk through its neighborhoods can find cobblestone streets, but most of the roads are made of dirt. Anyone who wants to travel from this town to Posadas, the provincial capital, has to drive for about three hours.

María (who asked not to be identified by her real name to avoid being recognized in her city) says that in Montecarlo, all the neighbors know each other. She has four children: the oldest is 13 years old, and the youngest is just over a year old.

As she speaks, she breastfeeds her baby, and explains that for some time now, she has been in charge of all the household and childcare responsibilities: her husband lost his registered job in February and had to move to a nearby town where he does cleaning work in fields.

In July, María noticed a delay in her period despite using contraceptives. The situation at home was not easy, and supporting four children on an informal income made it difficult for her family to get through each month. She says that having another child was not an option. As soon as she suspected she might be pregnant, she went to her regular gynecologist, who had helped her deliver her children.

During the consultation, María asked about her options for accessing an abortion, but the doctor told her he didn’t perform such procedures and asked her to leave.

After this initial negative response, María got an appointment at the local public hospital. There, she also asked for help, but they couldn’t provide her with information about her alternatives. So, she sought of a third option: she traveled to Eldorado, a neighboring city to Montecarlo, where the public hospital has a family planning section.

There, they sat her down with other patients and explained to all of them how the abortion procedure worked. When some of them asked if the hospital would provide the medication, they were told there wasn’t enough, and they would be given a prescription to buy the abortion-inducing drug misoprostol privately.

“At that moment, I didn’t have 100,000 pesos (about 73 dollars at the parallel exchange rate in July). My husband had lost his registered job, so I went to the public hospital to get it for free,” she explains, adding that she tried to inquire about misoprostol with professionals at the public hospital in her area, but they also didn’t have free medication.

“When I asked, they replied: no, we don’t have any. I started crying, going back home, I was overwhelmed with despair because my husband had gone far away to work, and I was left alone. It felt like every door was closed to me. And I got home crying with my baby in my arms”, María recounts.

Since the start of his administration, the government of Argentina’s President Javier Milei halted the purchase of essential supplies for abortion access and has not delivered a single box of misoprostol, mifepristone, or manual vacuum aspiration cannulas, essential elements to guarantee abortion access for pregnant individuals, according to an information request filed by rights group Amnesty International.

Abortions were legalized in Argentina in 2021 in all cases up to 14 weeks of pregnancy. According to the legislation, a person who wants an abortion has the right to do so safely and free of charge.

However, exercising this right is becoming increasingly difficult in the country this past year, as confirmed by organizations dedicated to monitoring reproductive rights in Argentina, such as Amnesty International, the Latin American team of Justice and Gender, and the Safe Abortion Access Network, among others.

According to the report presented in May by the National Directorate of Sexual and Reproductive Health of Argentina’s Ministry of Health, the distribution of medications and equipment for manual vacuum aspiration had not been carried out until that month due to lack of stock, and the guarantee of these supplies for the remaining months would depend on the progress of the public tender, which at the time of the official response, was underway.

Searching for a workaround

As a last resort, María searched for alternatives online. This is how she came across Amnesty International, an organization that works for the promotion and defense of human rights. Through a form on their website, she shared the obstacles she faced in accessing an abortion in her province, and within a week, professionals from the NGO contacted her and guided her on how to obtain the medications for free to assert her right to a legal, safe, and free abortion.

María is one of the cases where Amnesty International had to intervene to ensure a safe abortion. The law states that individuals who wish to access this procedure must have their right guaranteed within no more than ten days. It took nearly a month for María to get an abortion.

According to the organization, complaints about barriers to accessing voluntary termination of pregnancy through the complaint form available on their website increased by 80% in the year up to August 2024 compared to the previous year.

The contrast with data from previous years is striking, Galkin explains. “While in 2023, nearly 150,000 treatments of the misoprostol and mifepristone combination were guaranteed or distributed nationwide, this year the provinces have not received stock, and we have been confirming this with public information requests to various provinces,” she detailed.

Galkin from Amnesty highlighted that provinces are not only reporting a lack of access to supplies for legal voluntary termination of pregnancy but also a shortage of contraceptive methods. “There is a lot of concern about the impact this will have on family planning,” she emphasized.

A temporary solution

According to Amnesty International and RedAAS, provincial governments are seeking alternatives to fill the gap left by the national government in reproductive health.

“Some provinces have immediately made direct purchases because, otherwise, women’s and pregnant individuals’ rights end up being violated,” explains Galkin.

Ramos adds: “Provinces are purchasing in quantities that probably won’t meet the entire demand, but there is a willingness from some provinces to take on the purchase of supplies.”

The problem with leaving it to each province, both specialists explain, is that it deepens inequalities across different regions of the country, as not all regions have the same resources.

Ramos asserts that the impact of this withdrawal by Milei’s government on public health policies could be twofold: “Women who end up not accessing abortion and who may resort to unsafe abortions or continue a forced pregnancy. Those are the options for a woman who wants an abortion and can’t get the procedure.”

Galkin concludes: “It has been demonstrated, in two years of implementation, how it has contributed to reducing, for example, the maternal mortality rate from abortion by 53% from 2020 to 2022. Legal voluntary termination of pregnancy is another health service that must be included in the mandatory medical program and must be available to the population because it is a public health issue.”

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