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October 28, 2024

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When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them.

As investors, we often get so caught up in one particular market narrative that we are unable to think “outside the box” and consider other possible outcomes. Successful investors I’ve worked with have been exceptionally good at looking at all the possibilities, challenging their own investment thesis by opening themselves up to other options.

Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.  

By the way, we ran through four scenarios for the S&P 500 back in July, and you may be surprised to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop a comment and let me know your vote and what you think will cause that scenario to play out.
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most bullish scenario, where the S&P 500 keeps going with a consistent pace and breaks above 6000 by early December.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkably strong run off the low in early August. This first scenario would mean a continuation of the pace of the current trend, suggesting the SPX would remain above a trendline drawn from the August and September lows. This scenario would include the S&P breaking above 6000 for the first time, and by early December, we’d be wondering how we made it through an entire calendar year with the biggest drawdown sitting at just less than 10%.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Let’s say that Trump wins a second term, and investors see that as a fairly pro-business and pro-market outcome. At the same time, however, new economic data and the November Fed meeting leave investors a little skeptical of the Fed’s ability to navigate the soft landing scenario into early 2025.

The second scenario would mean we drift a bit higher, but breadth conditions break down as investors gravitate to Magnificent 7 stocks and other safe havens as the VIX pushes above 20. We don’t see a major correction into early December, but it still feels like one is just around the corner and everyone’s talking about overvaluations and a potential Q1 pullback.

Dave’s vote: 25%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

A Harris victory could certainly weigh on the markets as we progress through Q4, as we realize how much investors had been pricing in a Republican White House. Skepticism of the Fed reaches a fever pitch as we’re no longer talking about a potential soft landing, but rather when the next major correction will play out. Volume and breadth divergences that have been growing in October continue to play out, and a 2018-style Q4 drop becomes our reality in 2024.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a “doomsday” scenario, where things get bad and stay bad. What if the S&P 500 starts selling off as a frustrating earnings season leads into a contentious election and a November Fed meeting raises more questions than answers? Paul Tudor Jones famously remarked, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” And in this scenario, that’s exactly what we’re facing in December as we wonder where how and why the normal Q4 rally is nowhere to be seen.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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The secular bull market in stocks has been epic both in duration and extent. The NASDAQ 100 Index illustrates this bull run best of all. Using Wyckoff Method classic trendline construction techniques, the chart below illuminates this secular bull phenomena. The stride of the bull market run is set with three points in 2010 and 2011. Drawing a Demand Trendline on the two reaction points and an OverBought (Supply Line) on the intervening high price, the Stride of the advance is defined for the next 14 years (and the bull run is still going strong). The upward trend has ebbed and flowed during the long advance, swinging between the Overbought and OverSold Trendline extremes. And at times throwing over and under these Trendline boundaries. These throwovers typically are long term overbought and oversold conditions. Presently the NASDAQ 100 is above the OverBought threshold of the upward channel, creating the classic Wyckoff throwover. Is this index vulnerable to a reaction back into the channel?  

NASDAQ 100 Index 2008-Present

Extremes in sentiment can be characterized by the classic equity put to call volume ratio. In the lower panel the Put/Call Ratio for CBOE equity option volume is plotted. An extremely low reading for this ratio indicates high call option volume in relation to put option activity. High call activity characterizes broad bullishness by option traders. Conversely, a high reading by this oscillator reflects extreme put volume and reflects intense bearishness. What makes this particular view of the Put/Call indicator noteworthy is the 10 Week Moving Average time frame. The long term construction of this indicator moves slowly and deliberately from Bullish to Bearish extreme and back again. This coincides well with the secular view of the upward striding NDX 100. Note the correlation of the OverBought and OverSold extremes around the edges of the trend channel and how well it syncs up with trading sentiment as defined by the 10 WMA Put/Call ratio.

Two notable conditions on the chart have recently occurred. In the third quarter (July) the NDX­-100 jumped above the Supply Trendline and became classically OverBought. Now, as the fourth quarter gets underway a Test of the July high is underway. Second, during the current Test of the July high the 10 WMA of the Put/Call Ratio has suddenly tumbled down into extreme call volume readings signaling that sentiment has become bullish and frothy, on a longer term 10 week basis!

Sentiment indicators are best evaluated as environmental in nature. Thus signaling that the upward trend of the stock market has suddenly become crowded with bullish speculators and investors. Sentiment indicators tell us when the rewards relative to the risks are high or low. The long term Put/Call Ratio now signals that bullish reward potential is diminished, and the risks are high. 

Wyckoffians would be watching the relationship between the NDX-100 index and the Overbought trendline. Often a decline back into the trend channel from an OverBought condition leads to volatility and a decline toward the Demand Line and an OverSold condition. Note also the position of the 39-week moving average (red dotted line) which is poised at the same level as the upper trend channel line. A drop of the NDX-100 into the channel would breach both of these noteworthy lines. 

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

Video Appearance:

I recently joined Dale ‘Coach’ Pinkert at ForexAnalytix for this discussion of the present position of the stock market and interest rates. To view it (Click here).

Workshop Announcement:

Mastering Long Term Campaign Investing. Join Roman Bogomazov and Bruce Fraser for this Wyckoff Method workshop for developing skills and mental discipline to successfully campaign long term stock trends. To Learn More (Click Here)

In the early hours of Thursday, March 23, 2023, residents in the German town of Kronberg were woken from their sleep by several explosions.

Criminals had blown up an ATM located below a block of flats in the town center.

The attack caused severe damage to the building and forced the evacuation of its inhabitants. According to local media reports, witnesses saw people dressed in dark clothing fleeing in a black car towards a nearby highway.

During the heist, thieves stole 130,000 euros in cash. They also caused an estimated half a million euros worth of collateral damage, according to a report by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, BKA.

Rather than staging dramatic and risky bank robberies, criminal groups in Europe have been targeting ATMs as an easier and more low-key target.

In Germany – Europe’s largest economy – thieves have been blowing up ATMs at a rate of more than one per day in recent years. In a country where cash is still a prevalent payment method, the thefts can prove incredibly lucrative, with criminals pocketing hundreds of thousands of euros in one attack.

Europol has been cracking down on the robberies, carrying out large cross-border operations aimed at taking down the highly-organized criminal gangs behind them.

Earlier this month, authorities from Germany, France and the Netherlands arrested three members of a criminal network who have been carrying out attacks on cash machines using explosives, Europol said in a statement.

Since 2022, the detainees are believed to have looted millions of euros and run up a similar amount in property damage, from 2022 to 2024, Europol said.

The criminal network used locations in France as “hideaway spots” and relied on getaway cars hired from a French rental company, according to the statement.

The arrests came as part of a wider operation by German, French and Dutch investigators, which also saw law enforcement search car rental companies whose vehicles had been used to flee crime scenes, in an “action day” across locations in the three countries.

Europol says that perpetrators have mostly been using solid explosives, mainly derived from fireworks, to explode the cash-filled machines – a dangerous tactic that results in heavy damage. In 2023, the lootings in Germany caused 28.4 million euros worth of secondary damage alone, according to BKA.

Often based in the Netherlands, the gangs “take extreme risks and act unscrupulously,” Europol says, both during the robberies themselves and the ensuing escapes in high-powered vehicles.

The chosen ATMs are often in quieter, residential areas – making them easier targets. According to Europol, this means that they pose a serious harm to buildings and residents. The attacks can crumble building facades and scatter shards of glass.

In some cases, they can even prove fatal.

On November 11, an ATM robbery in the town of Wiernsheim in the German state of Baden Württemberg ended in disaster. After stealing 40,000 euros in cash, a criminal trio from the Netherlands attempted a high-speed getaway in a VW Golf with stolen license plates, according to local media reports. Pursued by police, they drove the wrong way down Germany’s A6 motorway.

Two of the three criminals were caught at a rest stop, but the 30-year-old Dutch driver escaped and continued to drive against the traffic at speeds of up to 200 kilometers per hour, until colliding head-on with a van.

The driver and passenger in the truck were both severely injured, with the passenger dying in hospital days later. The driver, who was also heavily injured, was arrested and later sentenced to life in prison.

A rising crime

Germany has become Europe’s prime target for ATM bombings. And with its penchant for cash payments, it’s not hard to see why.

The country has more than 51,000 ATMs. In comparison, the Netherlands has around 5,000. The majority of Germany’s 83.3 million citizens have to travel no further than one kilometer to reach their nearest ATM, according to the central bank, Bundesbank.

Unlike its European neighbors, who largely transitioned away from cash payments due to the Covid-19 pandemic, cash still plays a significant role in Germany. One half of all transactions in 2023 were made using banknotes and coins, according to Bundesbank.

Germans have a cultural attachment to cash, traditionally viewing it as a safe method of payment. Some say it allows a greater level of privacy, and gives them more control over their expenses.

A 2016 study by the Bundesbank found that cash is particularly prevalent among older generations of Germans, meaning lingering memories of the country’s turbulent recent history could play a role in Germany’s reluctance to go digital.

“Neither digitalisation nor the pandemic have been able to oust cash. When it comes to making payments, cash is still by far the most popular means in Germany,” Bundesbank’s Johannes Beermann said in a post-pandemic press release from 2022.

In terms of location, Germany is also an ideal target for cross-border crime: Neighboring the Netherlands and linked by motorways on some of which speed limits don’t apply. 

A decline in ATM machines in the Netherlands and the introduction of enhanced security measures to crack down on the crime – including the installation of glue protection systems that can render bank notes worthless – has also led Dutch criminals to look further afield, according to Reuters, citing Dutch police.

A 2023 BKA report notes that ATM robberies in Germany have been rising since 2005, although they dropped slightly from 2022 to 2023. Still, Germany counted a total of 461 such robberies in 2023 – the second-highest number since surveys began in 2005.

The report also found that, as with previous years, the number of thefts declined during the summer months in 2023 – when longer daylight hours provide a higher risk of being caught. The majority of the crimes took place on working weekdays, between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m., according to BKA.

“This extensive network has, in part, drawn organized criminal groups from abroad, seeing the density of ATMs and Germany’s demand for cash access as factors in their favor.”

German banks have invested over 300 million euros into enhanced security to tackle the issue, the spokesperson continued, including “alarm systems, ink staining solutions, reinforced locking mechanisms, and fogging technology.” However, certain techniques such as glueing systems to neutralize stolen cash are not currently permitted in Germany, the spokesperson added.

“These efforts, along with enhanced cooperation with police, have effectively reduced ATM attacks, with the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) reporting that 2024 figures are already ‘significantly below last year’s,’” the spokesperson said.

In July, the German government announced that ATM robberies would receive harsher punishment. Thieves must be sentenced to at least two years in prison, when the previous minimum sentence was one year. If the health of an uninvolved person or people is affected, perpetrators must receive prison time ranging from five to fifteen years, up from at least two years previously.

“Anyone who blows up ATMs risks the lives of uninvolved people,” Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said.

“We are dealing here with unscrupulous perpetrators and highly dangerous explosives. These acts must therefore be punished more severely.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An Israeli MP behind a bill that would prevent the main UN agency in Gaza and the West Bank from working in Israel has accused the US ambassador in Israel of lobbying opposition leaders to block the move.

If the bill passes in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, this week, it will prohibit any Israeli official from providing services or dealing with employees of the UN Relief and Works Agency and forbid UNRWA from operating in Israel.

Several countries, including the US, have expressed concern over the impact of the bill.

The Israeli government has claimed that some of the UN Relief and Works Agency’s (UNRWA) staff are affiliated with Hamas. UNRWA has strongly denied the allegations, but several governments suspended funding for the agency earlier this year while the allegations were investigated.

She described the US pressure as unacceptable.

But it said that the proposed legislation would make it impossible for UNRWA to operate and would leave a “vacuum that Israel would then be responsible for filling.” A spokesman said UNRWA provided vital services in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Jordan.

UNRWA has long been a target of Israeli criticism and relations between Israel and the UN have slumped amid the war in Gaza.

Last week, the spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said the IDF had killed a commander of the Hamas ‘Nukhba’ force who had also been employed by UNRWA since July 2022.

Subsequently, Foreign Minister Israel Katz posted on X that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had “reached new heights of hypocrisy and insensitivity. Last night, he lamented the elimination of their ‘UNRWA colleague’ by IDF forces in Gaza.”

In a letter sent to two senior members of the Israeli government earlier this month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Biden administration was “deeply concerned” about the potential adoption of the bill.

“UNRWA colluded with Hamas, it is educating kids to hate Israel and spreading antisemitism, it is selling them stories that they will be able to come back to Israel. This will not happen,” Malinovsky said.

UNRWA says it insists on the neutrality of its staff and said the allegations made by Israel about 66 employees out of 30,000 staff amounted to just 0.22% of its payroll.

“There is absolutely no ground for a blanket description of ‘the institution as a whole’ being ‘totally infiltrated,’” the agency said in May.

Former war cabinet member Benny Gantz posted on X last week that UNRWA “chose to make itself an inseparable component of Hamas’ mechanism – and now is the time to detach ourselves entirely from it.”

On Saturday, the foreign ministers of Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the UK expressed “grave concern” over the legislation.

They said that without UNRWA’s work, the provision of assistance “including education, health care, and fuel distribution in Gaza and the West Bank would be severely hampered if not impossible.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In a dramatic show of unity, Georgia’s often fractured opposition gathered at the presidential palace in Tbilisi, standing shoulder to shoulder behind the president, Salome Zourabichvili, as she defiantly announced, “I do not recognize these elections. Recognizing them would be tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia … We cannot surrender our European future for the sake of future generations.”

The government, controlled by the ruling Georgian Dream party, she said, is “illegitimate” and the election it carried out October 26 was a “complete falsification.”

Her voice rising, she said: “We were not just witnesses but also victims of what can only be described as a Russian special operation – a new form of hybrid warfare waged against our people and our country.”

She urged Georgians to gather in protest Monday evening on the capital’s main street, Rustaveli Avenue, “to peacefully defend every vote and, most importantly, our future.”

The statement was a bold challenge to the Georgian Dream’s founder and now honorary chairman, the reclusive billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who claimed victory in the parliamentary election even before all the votes were counted.

Ivanishvili had vowed to ban the opposition if his party won the election, and his opponents are taking him at his word.

On Saturday, as Georgians cast their ballots, thousands of Georgian and international election observers fanned out to voting precincts across the country, from urban centers to poor, remote villages in the Caucasus mountains, trying to evaluate whether the vote was free and fair.

Throughout election day, video of violations, some of them egregious, like a man boldly jamming ballots into a ballot box, spread quickly.

The day after, at a briefing by the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute, the conclusions were troubling: “systematic” intimidation; harassment of voters inside and outside polling stations; “pervasive intimidation and pressure on public sector employees and social-service benefits recipients.”

Observations by the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) were even more stark: “On election day, ISFED documented serious violations, such as ballot stuffing of ballot papers, multiple voting, unprecedented levels of voter bribery, expulsion of observers from polling stations, as well as instances of mobilizing voters outside polling stations, collecting their personal data, and controlling their voting intentions.”

In Tbilisi, former US Representative John Shimkus said the intimidation and harassment of voters created an “atmosphere of fear.”

Swedish Member of Parliament Margareta Cederfelt added: “The government’s continued harassment and intimidation of voters and civil society not only during the election period, but well before it, has threatened Georgia’s democratic underpinnings.”

The Georgian opposition owes its new unity to the efforts of President Zourabichvili, a person some of them used to criticize, but now respect.

“She is on the right side of history,” said opposition politician Nika Gvaramia. “She is the only one who can unite people.”

Speaking at his Ahali party headquarters, part of the “Coalition 4 Change” just off Tbilisi’s main street, Gvaramia, along with Elene Khoshtaria, founder of the “Droa” party, told reporters: “Russia hacked the (Georgian) election.”

Moscow, they claimed, is carrying out a “hybrid war” with new and different means of technical meddling, and it’s right out of “Putin’s playbook.”

The West, they said, isn’t even playing catch up.

Meanwhile, the Georgian government announced that its first high-level visitor after the election will be Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who plans to spend October 28 and 29 in a high-profile show of support to the Georgian Dream government.

The illiberal leader has found common cause with Georgia’s ruling party and was the first international leader to congratulate them after the election – even before the votes were officially tallied.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales said his car was fired on in what he claimed was an “assassination attempt” amid simmering political tensions in the South American country.

Morales, who was not injured, blamed the government for the attack, which he called a “failure” that adds to the “political defeat of a government that has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the Bolivian people.” The government denied any involvement and said that an investigation had been opened.

Morales said he was heading to the radio station in the central Bolivian department of Cochabamba, where he hosts a weekend program, when two vehicles intercepted his car and “four hooded officers dressed in black with weapons in their hands, got out and began to shoot.”

Fourteen bullets hit the car, injuring his driver in the head and arm, Morales said during his radio show.

Morales posted a cell-phone video on Facebook which he claimed shows the alleged attack. It shows the driver’s bloodied head and several bullet holes in the car’s windshield. Morales is seen in the passenger seat as they frantically drive away.

Morales posted to his Instagram profile a statement from his party, Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), blaming the attack on current Bolivian President Luis Arce and two of his government ministers. The statement did not provide evidence supporting this claim.

Bolivia’s Deputy Security Minister Roberto Rios said that there had not been a police operation against Morales and that his department would investigate the claims, including the possibility of a “self-attack” staged by Morales, state-run news agency Agencia Boliviana de Información (ABI) reported.

Power struggle

Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, led the country for more than a decade before he resigned from his office in November 2019 due to mounting accusations of electoral fraud, which he has denied. Ultimately, the leader claimed he was forced out in a coup and fled to Mexico, where he was granted political asylum. His resignation was followed by deadly clashes between Bolivian security forces and Morales supporters.

After a year of exile in Argentina, Morales returned to his home region of Chapare in central Bolivia in 2020, while stating his intention to remain involved in politics.

Throughout the past year, Morales has clashed with sitting president Arce – his fellow MAS party member and former ally – as both politicians battle for reelection in 2025.

The power struggle has unfolded during a period of acute economic strife in Bolivia. In recent weeks, blockades set up by Morales’ supporters on major highways have led to food and fuel shortages in some cities.

The blockades were established after the government announced a judicial investigation into the former president over an alleged case of human trafficking. Morales denies having committed any crime and attributed the investigation to political persecution by Arce.

The Bolivian police have said the blockades involve “violent armed groups.” In a statement, Bolivia’s foreign ministry denounced the “destabilizing actions” from Morales, who they said encouraged the blockades in an attempt to “disrupt the democratic order.”

The political turmoil in Bolivia reached a flashpoint in June with the arrest of a general accused of orchestrating a coup against the government. Armed soldiers and armored vehicles led by Gen. Juan Jose Zúñiga attempted to occupy government offices and break into the government palace to oust Arce.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Thick, toxic smog has once again enveloped northern India and eastern Pakistan just days before the start of Diwali, a Hindu festival typically celebrated with fireworks that each year sends air quality plummeting.

The air quality index in the Indian capital of Delhi was roughly 250 on Monday morning, after days in the “very unhealthy” zone above 200, according to IQAir, which tracks global air quality.

In the Pakistani city of Lahore, roughly 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the Indian border, air quality surpassed a “hazardous” 500 on Monday – almost 65 times the World Health Organization’s guidelines for healthy air – making it the most polluted city in the world at the time of the ranking, according to IQAir.

Air quality across the region is set to worsen as winter smog season approaches, when an ominous yellow haze blankets the skies due to farmers burning agricultural waste, coal-fired power plants, traffic and windless winter days.

Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, is set to begin Thursday – a five day celebration during which people gather with their families, feast and set off firecrackers, in some cases in defiance of local bans, further exacerbating air pollution.

Dystopian scenes of orange haze and buildings enveloped by fog emerge each year as smog season dominates the news, raising alarm as doctors warn of the risk of respiratory diseases and impacts on life expectancy. India’s air pollution has been found to be so bad, that experts have warned smog could take years off the lives of hundreds of millions of people.

Residents and experts have long questioned why India has failed to curb air pollution, as Delhi and its neighboring states butt heads over who is really to blame.

Delhi had banned the use and sale of firecrackers ahead of Diwali, but the policy has been difficult to implement.

Last week, India’s Supreme Court condemned governments of the Punjab and Haryana states for failing to crack down on illegal stubble burning, the practice whereby farmers set crop waste on fire to clear fields. Local officials claim they have reduced the practice significantly in recent years.

The Indian government also launched its nationwide Clean Air Programme in 2019, ushering in strategies across 24 states and union territories to reduce particulate matter concentration, a term for air pollutants, by 40% by 2026. The measures include cracking down on coal-based power plants, setting up air monitoring systems and banning burning of biomass.

Officials have also begun sprinkling water on roads and even inducing artificial rainfall to combat air pollution in the Indian capital, though experts say these are band-aid solutions that fail to address the underlying issues.

Some Indian cities have seen improvements in their air quality, according to government data, but progress has been slow.

Between 2018 and 2022, New Delhi’s average PM2.5 concentration (a measure of pollutants in the air) for the month of November, when the pollution season typically begins, more or less stayed the same, according to IQAir.

Experts in the past have questioned whether India has the political will to combat pollution.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Adam Crapser has become something of a cause celebre for what critics say is a flawed United States law that unfairly leaves tens of thousands of international adoptees in limbo without citizenship.

Eight years after he was deported from the US – his home for decades – Crapser was in a Seoul courtroom on Wednesday, suing for restitution on what he called a flawed adoption process that has made a shambles of his life.

As a bill in Congress that could bring the 49-year-old back to the US waits in committee, Crapser’s case puts a spotlight on an international adoption system loophole – one that has torn some families apart.

“I wanted to be with her. I wanted to raise her. I wanted to be in her life. I wanted to be her father. I wanted to do everything that I could to give her a life that I didn’t have,” Crapser said. “I want her to know definitively that since all of this started — before she was born — that I have been fighting this.”

Crapser was adopted by a Michigan family in 1979 and lived in the US for 37 years. His American family and guardians, however, failed to secure the paperwork for his citizenship and he was deported after a lengthy legal battle in 2016.

“I’m stuck. I’ve been in between like this for a significant amount of time,” Crapser said of his desire to return to his family and the uncertainty of his future.

Crapser made history as the first Korean adoptee to sue the South Korean government and his adoption agency for damages in 2019.

As he awaits a court decision in Seoul, a bill that could grant him US citizenship remains stalled in Congress.

The proposed bill, the Adoptee Citizenship Act of 2024, aims to grant automatic citizenship to international adoptees and rectify the loophole in the Child Citizenship Act of 2000, which excluded those who were 18 or older at the time the law was enacted.

Crapser, who was 25 when the law was passed, did not gain US citizenship.

Crapser remains skeptical about the passage of the new bill, pointing out that it “probably” may not happen “in our lifetimes,” based on the lack of progress since discussions of the recently introduced legislation began in 2017. 

A spokesperson for Democratic Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, one of the co-sponsors of the legislation, said, “While it’s unlikely that we’ll see more movement in the rest of the 118th Congress” — which ends in January 2025 — “given the election and the lame-duck period we’re expecting, we are hopeful that this very necessary bill progresses in future Congresses to become law.”

The bill has been referred to the Senate and House Judiciary Committees for review.

A gap in citizenship

After being abandoned by his initial adoptive parents in the 1980s, Crapser moved between foster homes and care facilities, according to a 2023 court case in the Seoul Central District Court.

In 1989, he was adopted by another couple, who were prosecuted in 1991 for charges of physical abuse and assault against foster and adopted children and found guilty in 1992.

Around 2012, when Crapser applied for the renewal of his expired permanent residency – commonly known as a “green card” – his criminal record, including charges of burglary and assault, drew the attention of US immigration officials, according to the court case.

“It’s been said a lot that I made a lot of mistakes and I got into a lot of trouble in the United States, and I admit that,” Crapser said during testimony Wednesday, according to the Associated Press. “I survived the best that I could in the United States, without a family and without any Korean people around me.”

The criminal record was deemed a violation of his green card status, and in 2016 he lost his fight against deportation back to South Korea, where he was born — but a place where he didn’t know the language or customs.

Having grown up with no exposure to Koreans, he says he grapples with a sense of disconnect from the place he is expected to call home.

“I don’t have any choice,” Crapser said. “All I know is American culture. I didn’t know anything about Korean customs, cultures, rules, history, or anything because it was intentionally kept from me.”

Anguish over his family separation

Despite his 10-year-ban on returning to the US, he said he’s pursued legal avenues to be with his children. He has not seen his 10-year-old daughter since 2017.

“I’ve literally tried every single legal remedy to try and get back to the United States earlier so I could be in my child’s life, and that has not been successful,” he said.

Crapser can file for waivers in two years, he says, but remains uncertain about how long that legislative process will take. Attempting to return to the US beforehand could result in a lifetime ban.

“I want to make sure that there’s a historical record, not only for my children, but also for the history of adoption that this has to do with other countries where they failed to ensure the children receive naturalization in the receiving countries,” he added.

In response to recent media reports about adoptions from South Korea in the 1980s, Holt International acknowledged the potential unethical practices in a public statement and noted Holt Children’s Services separated from Holt International in 1977.

“These reports highlight serious concerns, and we do not take these concerns lightly or dismiss the fact that mistakes were likely made,” Holt said in the statement.

Last year, a lower Korean court ruled that Holt must pay Crapser 100 million won ($72,300) in damages for not informing his US adoptive parents about the steps required to secure his citizenship following the completion of his adoption in a US state court, according to the lawsuit.

However, the Seoul Central District Court rejected Crapser’s additional claims against Holt and cleared the government of liability. Both Crapser and Holt filed appeals, with Holt asserting that it bore no legal obligation to ensure Crapser obtained his citizenship, the AP reported.

An attorney for the government stated that officials at that time had no legal obligation to confirm the citizenship status of adoptees and found no clear reason to question the accuracy of Crapser’s paperwork, according to the AP.

The Seoul High Court is set to render its decision on January 8 regarding Crapser’s seeking of monetary damages.

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A woman who went missing on a solo hike in Australia’s Snowy Mountains was found “dazed and injured” on Sunday, police said, after suffering a suspected snake bite while missing for nearly two weeks.

Lovisa Sjoberg, 48, was spotted by rescuers as she walked along a bush trail in Kosciuszko National Park, southwest of the capital Canberra, on Sunday afternoon.

New South Wales Police Superintendent Toby Lindsay said Monday she was “fortunate to be alive” after being bitten by a snake, potentially a copperhead. The venomous species can deliver a painful bite that can lead to death without medical attention.

“She advises that she was bitten by a snake approximately four days prior and had rolled her ankle and was dehydrated,” Lindsay said. “She’s in fact pretty fortunate to be alive and went through a pretty tough time.”

It’s not known how long Sjoberg was missing in the wilderness – she had last been seen driving a rented car on October 15.

Police only started investigating her whereabouts last Monday after the car rental company reported their vehicle had not been returned.

Officers tracked the car to Kiandra, a former gold mining town near the mountains, and investigated the theory that Sjoberg, an avid photographer and experienced hiker, had become lost in the wilderness when she set off on foot.

Police sent up helicopters, planes, and deployed search teams by road, on foot and horseback for six days before spotting her on Sunday.

The northern part of Kosciuszko National Park recently reopened to visitors after an annual closure during winter. The park was closed two months earlier this year to allow aerial culling of deer, pigs and wild horses, known as brumbies, in an effort to protect its alpine environment.

Sjoberg has an Instagram account dedicated to images of wild horses, and members of brumby advocacy groups expressed serious concern for her welfare on social media.

Plans by the New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS) to shoot brumbies from helicopters led to a failed legal bid to stop the cull this year.

The government said the cull was necessary to protect native plants and animals in the alpine wilderness, which are vulnerable to damage from large numbers of feral animals.

The Snowy Mountains are part of the Great Dividing Range, a mountainous region some 2,300 miles (3,700 kilometers) long, that contains some of Australia’s highest peaks. It’s popular with hikers and skiers who visit nearby resorts during the annual ski season.

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