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October 27, 2024

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When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them.

As investors, we often get so caught up in one particular market narrative that we are unable to think “outside the box” and consider other possible outcomes. Successful investors I’ve worked with have been exceptionally good at looking at all the possibilities, challenging their own investment thesis by opening themselves up to other options.

Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.  

By the way, we ran through four scenarios for the S&P 500 back in July, and you may be surprised to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop a comment and let me know your vote and what you think will cause that scenario to play out.
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most bullish scenario, where the S&P 500 keeps going with a consistent pace and breaks above 6000 by early December.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkably strong run off the low in early August. This first scenario would mean a continuation of the pace of the current trend, suggesting the SPX would remain above a trendline drawn from the August and September lows. This scenario would include the S&P breaking above 6000 for the first time, and by early December, we’d be wondering how we made it through an entire calendar year with the biggest drawdown sitting at just less than 10%.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Let’s say that Trump wins a second term, and investors see that as a fairly pro-business and pro-market outcome. At the same time, however, new economic data and the November Fed meeting leave investors a little skeptical of the Fed’s ability to navigate the soft landing scenario into early 2025.

The second scenario would mean we drift a bit higher, but breadth conditions break down as investors gravitate to Magnificent 7 stocks and other safe havens as the VIX pushes above 20. We don’t see a major correction into early December, but it still feels like one is just around the corner and everyone’s talking about overvaluations and a potential Q1 pullback.

Dave’s vote: 25%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

A Harris victory could certainly weigh on the markets as we progress through Q4, as we realize how much investors had been pricing in a Republican White House. Skepticism of the Fed reaches a fever pitch as we’re no longer talking about a potential soft landing, but rather when the next major correction will play out. Volume and breadth divergences that have been growing in October continue to play out, and a 2018-style Q4 drop becomes our reality in 2024.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a “doomsday” scenario, where things get bad and stay bad. What if the S&P 500 starts selling off as a frustrating earnings season leads into a contentious election and a November Fed meeting raises more questions than answers? Paul Tudor Jones famously remarked, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” And in this scenario, that’s exactly what we’re facing in December as we wonder where how and why the normal Q4 rally is nowhere to be seen.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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The over-deviated markets continued to extend their losses for the fourth week in a row. The Nifty remained largely under sustained selling pressure over the past five days, barring a few feeble attempts to stage a technical rebound. The markets extended their downsides while giving up key supports on the daily charts. The trading range widened again; the Nifty oscillated in a wider 904-point range before ending with a decent cut. The volatility also spiked; the India Vix surged by another 12.23% to 14.63 on a weekly basis. Following a largely bearish setup throughout the week, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 673.25 points (-2.71%).

The coming week is a truncated one; Friday is not a trading holiday but it will just have a very short, one-hour ceremonial Mahurut Session. Overall, the volumes are expected to remain low given the festive season.  The Nifty has violated the 100-DMA on the daily chart which stands at 24591. It has already given up the 20-week MA which is placed at 24702. Given these adverse technical developments, the Nifty has dragged its resistance levels much lower to 24500-24700 zones. Any technical rebounds will find resistance here. In other words, so long as the markets trade below this zone, all rebounds are more likely to get sold into.

The coming week may see a tepid start; the levels of 24450 and 24650 are likely to act as resistance levels. The supports are expected to come in at 23950 and 23700. The trading range is likely to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI stands at 49.95. It has formed a fresh 14-period low; however, it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and trades below the signal line.

The pattern analysis shows the high point of 26277, which is confirmed as an intermediate top for the markets. The decline has also seen Nifty breaching pattern support at 24750 levels. This pattern support is in the form of a rising trend line which begins at 22124 and extends itself. The 20-week MA and the 100-day MA also stand violated meaningfully on a closing basis. The resistance levels have been dragged lower; all technical rebounds will find resistance in the 24500-24700 zone from a short to medium-term perspective.

The markets have entered a technical setup that is likely to create a challenging environment. The risk-off setup is evident; it would be imperative to stay invested in stocks that have strong relative strength against the broader markets. Such investments shall offer greater resilience if the weakness in the markets persists for a longer time. While staying highly selective, a cautious approach is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) continue to show a few pockets of resilience building up in the markets. The Nifty Services Sector, Pharma, Consumption, and IT indices are inside the leading quadrant. They may continue relatively outperforming the broader markets.

The Nifty FMCG index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. Besides this, the Midcap 100 index is also indie the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Auto and Media Indices have rolled inside the lagging quadrant. This group is likely to relatively underperform along with the Energy, PSE, and Energy. The Infrastructure,  Commodities, PSU Bank, and Realty Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. However, they are seen improving their relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Bank, Metal, and Financial Services indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are likely to improve their relative performance against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

There are no magic bullets, but we can improve our trading edge by starting our selection process with two proven concepts: trend and momentum. These are perhaps the two most powerful forces in the market. The idea is relatively simple: stay on the right side of the trend and focus on the leaders. This is basically dual-momentum. Starting our process with these two steps will increase the odds of success. We will first choose the timeframe and then select two indicators.

When it comes to trend-momentum strategies, my research suggests that longer timeframes work better than shorter timeframes. This means 200 days works better than 50 days. Short timeframes, such as 20 and 50 days, are better suited for mean-reversion strategies, which trade pullbacks within uptrends. 200 days covers around nine months. This is long enough to absorb a 2-3 month correction and short enough to allow for extended trends.

Next, we need a trend-following indicator. While there are dozens of options out there, a simple 200-day SMA works quite well for long-term trend identification. The idea is to filter out stocks that are in downtrends and only focus on stocks in uptrends (above their 200-day SMAs). Negative outcomes are more likely when below the 200-day SMA and positive outcomes are more likely when above. It is as simple, and effective, as that. 

The chart above shows META with the 50 and 200 day SMAs. In the indicator windows, we can see the Percent above MA indicators, which show the distance between the close and the moving average. META broke the 50-day SMA several times, but none of these breaks resulted in a trend reversal. These breaks simply marked tradable pullbacks within the bigger uptrend. It would have been more profitable to accumulate on breaks of the 50-day as the stock held the 200-day and extended higher.  

After filtering for stocks in uptrends, we then need a momentum indicator to quantify performance. Here again we have dozens of choices. Rate-of-Change is the purest momentum measure and also works quite well. As with the SMA, I will use the 200-day Rate-of-Change to capture long-term performance. We can then rank stocks and focus on those with the strongest momentum.

The CandleGlance charts above show the top performing S&P 500 stocks. I created a ChartList with S&P 500 stocks, viewed the list as CandleGlance and sorted by the ROC(200). This puts the top performing stocks at the top and I can then scroll through this list to create a short-list for further analysis.

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Emmy, Grammy, and Tony award-winning, American actor Billy Porter and celebrated South African television presenter Bonang Matheba have been tapped to host the fourth annual Earthshot Prize Awards in South Africa on November 6.

The Earthshot Prize is an ambitious environmental initiative founded by Prince William back in 2020 that seeks to offer green solutions to some of the world’s most pressing problems.

Porter, who described co-hosting the evening as an “honor,” said in a statement: “I’m so inspired by the Earthshot community, and I can’t wait to be part of an evening that celebrates creativity, human ingenuity, and artistry in all its different forms.”

Matheba said she was “excited to celebrate these incredible innovators who are making a significant impact on our planet.”

The star-studded, eco awards ceremony – set to take place in Cape Town, South Africa in early November – will also include special performances and appearances from Nigerian singer-songwriter Davido, Tanzanian musician Diamond Platnumz, South African composer Lebo M alongside the Ndlovu Youth Choir and internationally acclaimed DJ and producer, Uncle Waffles.

The 15 Earthshot Prize finalists hail from six continents, with France, Ghana, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Nepal all having teams in contention for the first time. The winners will be selected by the Prince of Wales and a panel of experts including José Andrés, Queen Rania of Jordan and David Attenborough. Each of the five winners will receive a prize of £1 million (about $1.3 million) to scale up their solutions.

Since the scheme launched, it has delivered more than £75 million (around $100 million) in direct funding and in-kind support, according to organizers. The competition has five categories: “Protect and Restore Nature,” “Clean Our Air,” “Revive Our Oceans,” “Build a Waste Free World,” and “Fix Our Climate.”

Supermodel and TV host Heidi Klum, actor and activist Nina Dobrev, Canadian model Winnie Harlow and performer Tobe Nwigwe will be on hand to announce the five category winners.

While celebrating the work of global environmental innovators, the event also intends to spotlight innovation from across the African continent.

The star-studded ceremony will be available to watch globally through a special partnership with YouTube. Earthshot Week runs November 4 to 7, culminating with the Earthshot Prize Awards on November 6.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

After Israel’s attack on Iran Saturday, US officials were quick to caution both countries against perpetuating the cycle of violence, but analysts say lasting de-escalation is not a foregone conclusion.

The airstrikes “should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran,” a senior US administration official said after the attacks.

After reports emerged of explosions heard in Tehran, Israel in a statement said it launched what it described as “precise strikes on military targets in Iran” early Saturday. The strikes were in response to Iran’s barrage of missiles fired at Israel on October 1, in retaliation to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others.

Iran said Israel “attacked parts of military centers” on Saturday in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam, causing “limited damage” in some areas.

Iran appeared to have downplayed the Israeli strike, Iranian experts said. State media broadcast images showing calm on the streets of Tehran, with traffic moving and people going about their daily business.

Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the attack, calling it “clear violation” of international law. The ministry added that Iran “considers itself entitled and obligated to defend itself” after the Israeli strikes.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC, said Iran’s downplayed response may be “more reflective of their desire to de-escalate than a true assessment of the damage Israel inflicted on Iran,” like Israel’s attempts to hide damage caused by Iran’s October 1 attack.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense for Democracies, also based in DC, said Iran’s downplayed response may be “a strategic move to save face and keep US constraint on Israel.”

After several hours of strikes Saturday, the Israeli military said it had targeted manufacturing sites used to produce missiles that Iran has fired at Israel over the past year. Israel also said it hit Iranian aerial defense systems early Saturday to allow its aircraft to attack the other targets.

Israel’s decision to strike early Saturday morning came after weeks of deliberations within its security cabinet about the nature and scope of such an attack, Israeli officials said.

American officials have been keen to show the extent to which Israel’s attack was retrained and precise, especially as the US pushed Israel not to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, for fear of igniting a broader conflict, a request Israel seems to have heeded, according to preliminary reports.

After Israel’s retaliatory strikes against Iran ended, National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said the White House urges “Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation.”

But Israel has not always met the demands of its American ally. Throughout the war, Israel has defied the US’ calls for restraint – on the Rafah operation in southern Gaza, and more recently on a ground war in southern Lebanon.

Disagreements between the two governments culminated in an October 13 letter from the US to Israel, demanding the Jewish state act to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating US laws governing foreign military assistance, suggesting US military aid could be in jeopardy.

Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow with the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a retired Israel Defense Intelligence officer who specialized in Iran, said it was too early to predict how the coming hours and days will unfold. “But one thing is clear,” he said, “Israel and Iran came closer than ever last night to the brink of direct war.”

“The ball is now in the Iranian leadership’s court,” Citrinowicz said on X, adding that the Iranian regime likely faces a familiar dilemma: to strike back for reputational gains, or take Israel’s attack as an end to the direct conflict.

Parsi of the Quincy Institute said that “if Iran chooses to exercise restraint… then this chapter may be closed, yet the conflict will remain very much alive.”

When Iran chose restraint after Israel’s retaliation in April, it emboldened the Jewish state to take out key Hezbollah leaders in Beirut, which triggered the next cycle of aggression.

Experts say that while Israel presses on with its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, any pause in direct fighting between Iran and Israel is likely to be short-lived.

As long as those regional wars persist, the overall trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict will escalate. “While we may see some tactical de-escalation, the trajectory remains escalatory,” Parsi said, adding “a new exchange of fire between Israel and Iran will only be a question of time,” with the next round likely to be “more ferocious.”

Israel has long tried to push Iran and other Iranian proxies back into deterrence.  But experts say Israel’s strategy may not be entirely effective.

“It doesn’t de-escalate through escalation,” he said, “which is the most incredible thing I’ve heard.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili has condemned “deeply troubling incidents of violence unfolding at various polling stations” as the country votes in a crucial parliamentary election.

Voting opened early Saturday in the election, seen as a stark choice between Russia and the West. The ruling Georgian Dream party, which has in recent years taken a sharp authoritarian turn and stalled the country’s progress toward potential European Union membership, is bidding for re-election.

Activist and monitoring groups shared footage that they said showed ballot stuffing at a polling station in Marneuli, southern Georgia.

Another video showed a man, identified in local media as Azad Karimov – head of the opposition United National Movement (UNM) party’s regional organization – being assaulted by several men outside the polling station in Marneuli’s 69th precinct. Photos showed Karimov with a bloody nose and cuts to his face.

In an emergency briefing, the head of the CEC called on Marneuli’s election officials to investigate the incident and take appropriate action.

“This is troubling information, and the election administration, if confirmed, will not allow such isolated, controlled, or manipulative incidents to undermine the many months of efforts we have put forth into the election day,” Giorgi Kalandarishvili said.

Zourabichvili, a pro-Western figure whose powers are largely ceremonial, said she had been unable to reach the minister of internal affairs and that “the official government lines are not working.” Before the election, Zourabichvili urged Georgians to vote against Georgian Dream.

Responding to the reports from Marneuli, Georgian Dream politician Givi Mikanadze said “anyone who hinders the election process” will be punished, but appeared to blame the opposition for the incident.

“The opposition has no tangible factor other than to stage provocations, because they know that they will lose the elections,” he said, according to Imedia Media, a Georgian outlet.

After casting his ballot early Saturday, Georgia’s Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze told reporters that Georgian Dream will secure 60% of the vote and called on opposition parties to recognize these results. Government critics have questioned how Kobakhidze could know the results in advance.

The CEC reported voter turnout at 50.6% at 5 p.m. local time (9 a.m. ET), which Zourabichvili said was “very high.”

At 10 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET), the CEC will announce preliminary results based on 90% of votes counted.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Commonwealth leaders, ending a week-long summit in Samoa, said on Saturday the time had come for a discussion on whether Britain should commit to reparations for its role in the transatlantic slave trade.

Slavery and the threat of climate change were major themes for representatives of the 56 countries in the group, most with roots in Britain’s empire, at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting that began in the Pacific Islands nation on Monday.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose country has long rejected calls for financial compensation for nations affected by slavery, said summit discussions were not “about money.”

On slavery, the leaders said in a joint statement they had “agreed that the time has come for a meaningful, truthful and respectful conversation towards forging a common future based on equity.”

The push for ex-colonial powers such as Britain to pay reparations or make other amends for slavery and its legacies has gained momentum worldwide, particularly among the Caribbean Community and the African Union.

The statement also made reference to “blackbirding”, a term for people from places including the Pacific Islands being deceived, coerced or kidnapped to work on plantations in Australia and elsewhere.

Those opposed to reparations say countries should not be held responsible for historical wrongs, while those in support say the legacy of slavery has led to vast and persistent racial inequality.

The joint statement did not mention what form reparations should take.

Starmer told a press conference the joint statement did two things: “It notes calls for discussion and it agrees that this is the time for a conversation.

“But I should be really clear here, in the two days we’ve been here, none of the discussions have been about money. Our position is very, very clear in relation to that,” he said.

Professor Kingsley Abbott, director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London, said the statement was a sign of a potentially historic breakthrough on the issue.

“The commitment to conversations on reparatory justice wedges open the door for dialogue, and now the hard work really begins,” said Abbott, who attended the summit.

The joint statement also referred to concern about “the severe consequences of the climate crisis, including rising temperatures and sea levels.”

In a boost for Pacific Islands such as Tuvalu under threat from rising seas, they issued the Commonwealth’s first Oceans Declaration, affirming that a nation’s maritime boundaries should remain fixed even if climate change causes small island states to be submerged.

Fixing maritime boundaries means atoll nations can continue to reap the economic benefit of vast fishing grounds, even if populations must migrate as dry land area is significantly reduced. The declaration bolsters momentum for international law to recognise the perpetual statehood of sinking island states.

More than half of the Commonwealth’s members are small nations, many of them low-lying islands at risk from rising sea levels caused by climate change.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Georgia’s most powerful man claimed victory in an election on Saturday but the opposition called on the ruling party to admit defeat, setting the stage for a confrontation over the future of the South Caucasus country.

Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, the opposition, and foreign diplomats had cast the election as a watershed moment that would decide if Georgia moves closer to the West or leans back towards Russia amid the war in Ukraine.

Early official results with 70% of precincts counted, showed the ruling party had won 53% of the vote, the electoral commission said, but the deeply divided pro-Western opposition parties said that they had collectively clinched a majority.

Rival exit polls gave sharply different projections for the election. The Georgian Dream-supporting Imedi TV channel showed the ruling party winning 56%. Exit polls by the pro-opposition channels showed major gains for the opposition parties.

Ivanishvili, the ruling party’s reclusive billionaire founder and onetime prime minister, claimed victory and praised the Georgian people. But the opposition also celebrated victory and said Ivanishvili should concede.

Tina Bokuchava, leader of the United National Movement party of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, told Reuters that the opposition had won by a good margin of 10%.

“Against that backdrop most people will be taking Bidzina Ivanishvili’s claims of a government majority with a large bucket of salt,” Bokuchava said.

“We believe the Georgian public has voted clearly for a future at the heart of Europe and no amount of posturing will change that.”

Crucial vote

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili – a one-time ally of the ruling party turned fierce critic whose powers are mostly ceremonial – and independent domestic election monitors had alleged Georgian Dream was engaged in widespread vote-buying and other forms of electoral abuse in the lead-up to the vote.

Georgian Dream did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, came to power in 2012 advocating pro-Western views, alongside a pragmatic policy towards Russia.

He has since soured on the West, accusing a “Global War Party” of seeking to drag Georgia into war with Russia, even as he insists Georgia is on course to join the EU.

Some Georgians told Reuters that they wanted change.

“I voted for freedom and for the European choice,” said voter Irakli Andronikashvili in Tbilisi on Saturday, adding that he wanted a government which was “more progressive, less corrupt and more common-sense.”

Georgia was once one of the most pro-Western states to emerge from the chaotic aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse. The road leading from Tbilisi’s airport is named after former US President George W. Bush.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Tbilisi’s relations with the West have taken a sharp downward turn. Unlike many Western allies, Georgia declined to impose sanctions on Moscow, while Georgian Dream’s rhetoric has become increasingly pro-Russian.

Georgian Dream has drawn the ire of its Western allies for what they cast as its increasingly authoritarian bent. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban congratulated Georgian Dream for an “overwhelming victory.”

The pro-opposition Formula exit poll said that the ruling party would be the single largest party but that the four main opposition parties combined would have 83 seats.

Georgia’s four main opposition blocs are deeply divided, and it is unclear if they will be able to work together if they deprive Georgian Dream of its majority.

Sandro Dvalishvili, a 23-year-old Georgian Dream activist, told Reuters last week that Georgia would face “danger” if his party of choice was defeated at the polls.

“If it turns out that we don’t win, for me that’ll be very bad. Because I don’t see another force that will bring peace and stability to our country,” he said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The number of dead and missing in massive flooding and landslides wrought by Tropical Storm Trami in the Philippines has reached nearly 130 and the president said Saturday that many areas remained isolated with people in need of rescue.

Trami blew away from the northwestern Philippines on Friday, leaving at least 85 people dead and 41 others missing in in one of the Southeast Asian archipelago’s deadliest and most destructive storms so far this year, the government’s disaster-response agency said. The death toll was expected to rise as reports come in from previously isolated areas.

Dozens of police, firefighters and other emergency personnel, backed by three backhoes and sniffer dogs, dug up one of the last two missing villagers in the lakeside town of Talisay in Batangas province Saturday.

A father, who was waiting for word on his missing 14-year-old daughter, wept as rescuers placed the remains in a black body bag. Distraught, he followed police officers, who carried the body bag down a mud-strewn village alley to a police van when one weeping resident approaching him to express her sympathies.

The man said he was sure it was his daughter, but authorities needed to do checks to confirm the identity of the villager dug up in the mound.

In a nearby basketball gym at the town center, more than a dozen white coffins were laid side by side, bearing the remains of those found in the heaps of mud, boulders and trees that cascaded Thursday afternoon down the steep slope of a wooded ridge in Talisay’s Sampaloc village.

President Ferdinand Marcos, who inspected another hard-hit region southeast of Manila Saturday, said the unusually large volume of rainfall dumped by the storm — including in some areas that saw one to two months’ worth of rainfall in just 24 hours — overwhelmed flood controls in provinces lashed by Trami.

“The water was just too much,” Marcos told reporters.

“We’re not done yet with our rescue work,” he said. “Our problem here, there are still many areas that remained flooded and could not be accessed even big trucks.”

His administration, Marcos said, would plan to start work on a major flood control project that can meet the unprecedented threats posed by climate change.

More than 5 million people were in the path of the storm, including nearly half a million who mostly fled to more than 6,300 emergency shelters in several provinces, the government agency said.

In an emergency Cabinet meeting, Marcos raised concerns over reports by government forecasters that the storm — the 11th to hit the Philippines this year — could make a U-turn next week as it is pushed back by high-pressure winds in the South China Sea.

The storm was forecast to batter Vietnam over the weekend if it would not veer off course.

The Philippine government shut down schools and government offices for the third day on Friday to keep millions of people safe on the main northern island of Luzon. Inter-island ferry services were also suspended, stranding thousands.

Weather has cleared in many areas on Saturday, allowing cleanup work in most areas.

Each year, about 20 storms and typhoons batter the Philippines, a Southeast Asian archipelago which lies between the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest recorded tropical cyclones, left more than 7,300 people dead or missing and flattened entire villages.

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