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October 19, 2024

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Walt Disney Co. (DIS) has struggled as a business over the past few years and isn’t on many investors’ radars these days. However, Disney seems to have turned a corner last quarter and is positioned for a resurgence in its core theme parks and streaming businesses.

With consumer spending in the travel sector remaining robust, demand for Disney’s theme parks is increasing. Additionally, Disney+ is on track to become profitable by Q4, and the inclusion of ESPN could further enhance Disney’s edge in the streaming space. These factors provide upside potential for Disney’s stock price, particularly as the company recovers from recent challenges and realigns its strategic focus.

Disney’s stock price has recently broken above its trading range, pulled back, and bounced off its $92 support level (see chart below). This suggests there is momentum to target $102 to the upside and $113 as an extended target to the upside.

FIGURE 1. DISNEY’S STOCK PRICE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE HIGHER. An improving relative performance and moving average convergence/divergence support a potential higher price move in Disney.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purpose.

With the relative performance of DIS to the S&P 500 ($SPX) improving and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) showing signs of strengthening, this confirms the upside potential as DIS potentially breaks out above its $97.50 resistance.

Disney stock appears modestly undervalued, trading at 18x forward earnings, slightly below the industry average. Its expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14.5% aligns with the industry average, while its revenue growth forecast of 4% aligns with its peers. However, Disney’s net margins of 5% surpass the industry average of 3%, indicating a stronger outlook on profitability, especially with anticipated improvements from its streaming business and sustained demand in its theme parks.

Options on DIS are expensive, with the IV rank at 67%. So, to capitalize on a potential major breakout for DIS, I suggest buying a December $95/$110 call vertical for $5.09 debit.


A call vertical involves buying a call option and selling another with a higher strike price. The two options have the same expiration date.


FIGURE 2. CALL VERTICAL ANALYSIS. Here, you see the cost of the trade, the risk curve, and the risk/reward tradeoff of the call vertical for DIS. Image source: OptionsPlay.

This structure allows an offset for the relatively expensive Dec $95 call options and reduces the overall risk by selling the $110 calls. This structure entails:

  • Buying the Dec 20 $95 Call @ $6.25
  • Selling the Dec 20 $110 Call @ $1.16

 This call vertical spread allows for a maximum reward of $991 per contract if DIS is above $110 at expiration, with a maximum risk of $509 if DIS is below $95 at expiration.

In this week’s RRG video, I shared my concerns about the current market conditions. The sector rotation model and current sector rotation, as we see it on the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, are sending us conflicting signals. This combination continues to make me cautious about fully buying into the rally with new positions.

Being fully-invested is too risky at the moment (for me).

My current approach is that the risk of being fully invested in the market right now, or even buying into it, is too high for my comfort. Instead, I suggest we focus on identifying individual stocks or industries that present profit opportunities for long positions.

Dow Jones Industrials: Finding the Right Stocks

I haven’t blogged about individual stocks for a while, especially not about the members of the Dow Jones Industrials. Thus, I thought it would be beneficial to examine the constituents of the Dow Jones Industrials Index to find suitable candidates for long positions.

Outliers on the RRG

When you look at the RRG holding the Dow Jones Industrial Stocks, two real outliers catch the eye. The first is Intel (INTC), which is in the lagging quadrant and experiencing a significant hiccup in relative momentum. The second outlier is 3M (MMM), located in the weakening quadrant and rapidly losing relative momentum. If removed from the equation, these two stocks allow us to see a more balanced distribution of stocks across the various quadrants.

Positive RRG Headings

My next step is to toggle over all the individual stocks and highlight those with a positive RRG heading between 0 and 90 degrees. This indicates that a stock is gaining relative strength against the Dow Jones Industrials and is supported by positive momentum.

With this filter, we see two stocks in the lagging quadrant on a positive heading: Amazon and Honeywell. Four stocks are inside the improving quadrant, and they seem to be continuing their improvement: DIS, NKE, CRM, and V.

Concentrating on the Leading Quadrant

The leading quadrant has a higher concentration of stocks on a positive heading, and that’s where I want to focus our attention. After reviewing the individual charts of these stocks, I’ve identified a few worth a closer look and might be considered for adding to a portfolio.

The Strong Performers: TRV, WMT, and AXP

Travelers (TRV), Walmart (WMT), and American Express (AXP) are showing very strong charts in terms of price and relative strength. However, they’ve had such a long run that I wouldn’t recommend chasing them higher. The same goes for American Express (AXP). If you already hold these stocks, they are a great “hold,” but I wouldn’t initiate new positions.

The Top Three Picks

Now, let’s talk about the three stocks that stand out as potential additions to our portfolio.

Caterpillar (CAT)

Caterpillar’s price has just broken above the previous high at $380 and is consolidating. As long as it stays above $380, it has a good chance of continuing its uptrend. The RRG lines have turned up and are both above 100, indicating a positive RRG heading.

Cisco (CSCO)

Cisco bottomed out around $44 and has climbed to its previous high of around $56. It’s now breaking above that resistance, which is a positive sign.

The next target is the late December 2021 peak, just below $60. The relative strength is picking up again, confirmed by both RRG lines pushing above the 100 level. Once that barrier is taken out, a lot of upside potential for CSCO will be unlocked.

Home Depot (HD)

Home Depot has broken above resistance around $390, formed by two peaks in late 2021 and March 2024. The stock confirms a new uptrend with the RRG lines pushing above 100. We could see significant upside potential when the raw RS line surpasses its previous high from March 2024.

By measuring the height of the range from $260 to $390, we can project a rough price target of $520 for Home Depot to be reached within the next two years, as long as the support around $390 holds.

Remember, it’s not about chasing the market; it’s about making informed decisions based on solid analysis.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend, –Julius


Despite a light economic data week, the stock market continued its rally, with the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closing at record highs. How many times have we heard that? This is the sixth positive week for the three indexes.

Strong earnings from big banks, Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) injected optimistic energy into the stock market.

Tech Stocks Hold Steady

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) may not have hit all-time highs, but its daily chart is worth a closer look. An ascending triangle formation has reached its apex, indicating indecision among investors. The breadth indicators in the lower panels below the price chart echo this indecision.

CHART 1. NASDAQ COMPOSITE CONVERGING AT TRIANGLE APEX. The Nasdaq Composite seems to be at a point of indecision. This could continue until Tech stocks report quarterly earnings.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is trending higher but is registering at 57.76, which is slightly bullish. The percentage of Nasdaq stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is also lukewarm, and the Nasdaq advance-decline line isn’t showing strong bullish participation.

Investors are probably waiting for Tech earnings. Until then, the index will probably stay put unless some unknown market-moving event occurs before then. The indecision in Tech stocks isn’t stopping investors from shifting to other areas of the market.

Mid-Caps Might Flatten

The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID) broke out of its trading range in September and has been trading above it since then. The index hit an all-time high this week, but has started to show signs of flattening (see last two bars in chart below).

CHART 2. MID-CAP STOCKS BREAK OUT OF RANGE. After hitting an all-time high, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is stalling.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The percentage of $MID stocks above their 200-day moving average is 73, which is pretty healthy. The advances still need higher volume to push the index higher. Until that happens, the mid-cap asset class may stall.

Bitcoin Breaks Out, Gold Glitters

Bitcoin has also shown its might this week. The weekly chart shows Bitcoin breaking out of a flag pattern (see below).

CHART 3. BITCOIN BREAKS OUT OF A CONSOLIDATION PATTERN. A breakout plus a possible MACD crossover could send Bitcoin prices higher. Note that the crossover is close to the zero line, an encouraging sign.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

After hitting the measured move targets following the previous consolidation, $BTCUSD has been in an extended consolidation pattern and has finally broken out. A bullish crossover in the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) could occur. The crossover is close to the zero line, a criterion I look for. Look at what happened to the price of Bitcoin the last time a crossover took place at the zero line! Bitcoin could move higher by about 42.5%.

Speaking of all-time highs, gold prices are on fire. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has been in an uptrend since early March, and central bank interest rate cuts have propelled gold prices higher (see chart below).

CHART 4. GOLD PRICES ON A TEAR THIS YEAR. GLD has been following a typical uptrend, going through consolidations, breaking out of them, and continuing its ride higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

GLD could potentially rise above $250, but it’s difficult to set an entry point unless there’s a pullback. If you are considering going long now, apply stringent stop losses.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is estimating a 3.4% growth in Q3 2024. This has led investors to think the Fed will not cut interest rates in its November meeting. However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 92.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut. So, if there’s a rate cut in November, GLD could rise higher. This can change though, considering we’re less than three weeks away from the meeting, which happens to be right after the U.S. presidential election.

Looking Forward

Next week is thin on economic data, but earnings season continues. It’s not a strong week for Tech earnings, so the Nasdaq could continue its indecisive price action. As for the rest of the market, there could be more of the same. As always, anything could happen over the weekend that could send things awry.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed up 0.85% for the week, at 5864.67, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.96% for the week at 43,275.91; Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.80% for the week at 18,489.55
  • $VIX down 11.88% for the week, closing at 18.03
  • Best performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); Carvana (CVNA); Ubiquiti, Inc. (UI); Applovin Corp (APP); Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Fed speeches
  • September Existing Home Sales
  • September New Home Sales
  • Earnings from Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), Verizon Communications (VZ), Coca Cola (KO), among others

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, created by technical analyst Gerald Appel, is a technical indicator designed to confirm once a trend change has occurred. Based on exponential moving averages, it is not built to anticipate a price reversal, but rather to identify that one has already occurred.

The lesser-known MACD histogram can actually provide a powerful leading indicator as to when a turning point could be just around the corner. Today, we’ll use the weekly chart of IBM to show how, by combining these two techniques, we can anticipate potential reversals and then confirm when and how the trend has shifted.

Using the MACD or PPO Indicator to Define the Trend

To start this discussion, let’s be clear on why we’re using the PPO indicator instead of MACD on our example charts. The MACD indicator is based on the price difference between two exponential moving averages, while the PPO indicator is based on the percent difference between those two averages.

For a short-term time frame, the indicators are almost identical and either one can be used for effective signals. For long-term time frames, however, using percentage terms instead of price terms allows for a more consistent comparison, especially if the stock or ETF has experienced big price swings.

On the weekly chart of International Business Machines (IBM), the PPO indicator (bottom panel) starts with the PPO line, which represents the difference between the 12- and 26-week exponential moving averages. Then we have the red signal line, which is simply a 9-bar moving average of the PPO line.

Note the sell signal in late March 2024, when the PPO line crossed down through the red signal line. Conversely, the buy signal in mid-July is based on the PPO line crossing back up through the red signal line. At the present time, the PPO indicator suggests the uptrend is alive and well, with the PPO line sloping higher above the red signal line.

Adding the Histogram Helps to Anticipate the Signals

See how the sell signal in March came after the peak had occurred, and the price was already in a new downtrend?Also, notice how the buy signal in July appeared well after the actual price low in April?

This is actually by design, as the PPO indicator is considered a lagging indicator. It’s not designed to tell you a reversal may be coming soon, but rather that a reversal recently happened and is now being confirmed. But what if we want to anticipate those reversals before they occur?

The PPO histogram, shown behind the PPO indicator in blue, represents the difference between the PPO line and the signal line. Go back to that March peak, and you may notice that the histogram had started to slope downward starting in February. Then, in May, right as the price was finding a new swing low, the histogram started to slope back upwards.

So, to summarize the components, the histogram reversals raise the “red flag” that a potential price reversal is coming, and then the actual PPO crossover confirms that the trend reversal has actually occurred. Now we can use the PPO indicator as both a leading and a lagging indicator!

Using the Histogram With Other Indicators

Fast forward to October 2024, and you’ll see that this week the PPO histogram moved slightly lower. This could represent the early warning of an impending top for IBM. For this situation, I like to go to a lower time frame, in this case the daily chart, and use trend-following techniques to confirm a breakdown on the shorter time frame. While the weekly may still be my main indication, a sell signal could come earlier on the daily chart and help me to take action before the pain gets too unbearable!

Here I’m showing the Chandelier Exit system, which is a trailing stop indicator based on Average True Range (ATR). As long as IBM remains above the Chandelier Exit, the uptrend is most likely still alive and well on the daily chart.  A breakdown of this trailing stop could help me confirm the bearish divergence we’ve noted on the weekly PPO chart.

The technical analysis toolkit consists mainly of leading indicators and lagging indicators. While I primarily use lagging indicators to follow the trends and confirm trend reversals, I have also found leading indicators such as the PPO histogram to be a vital part of managing risk and identifying opportunities for my portfolio.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen reviews what’s driving the markets higher and how you can capitalize. Moves in TSLA, NVDA, and NFLX are highlighted. She also reviews price action greatly impacted by earnings, many driven by analyst upgrades and downgrades.

This video originally premiered October 18, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen on StockCharts TV.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

South Korean intelligence has found that North Korea has dispatched 12,000 troops including special operation forces to support Russia’s war against Ukraine, news reports said Friday, a development that could bring a third country into the war and intensify a standoff between North Korea and the West.

Yonhap news agency cited the National Intelligence Service as saying that the North have already left the country, formed into four brigades. Other South Korean media outlets carried similar reports.

If confirmed, it would be North Korea’s first major participation in a foreign war. North Korea has 1.2 million troops, one of the largest militaries in the world, but it lacks actual combat experience.

Many experts question how much the North Korean troop dispatch would help Russia, citing North Korea’s outdated equipment and shortage of battle experiences.

During a meeting in Pyongyang in June, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a pact stipulating mutual military assistance if either country is attacked, in what was considered the two countries’ biggest defense deal since the end of the Cold War.

The NIS didn’t immediately confirm the report, but South Korea’s presidential office said in a statement that President Yoon Suk Yeol had presided over an emergency meeting earlier Friday to discuss North Korea’s troop dispatch to Ukraine.

The statement said participants of the meeting agreed that North Korea’s troop dispatch poses a grave security threat to South Korea and the international community.

But the presidential office gave no further details like when and how many North Korean soldiers have been sent to Ukraine and what roles they are expected to play.

Russia has denied using North Korean troops in the war, with Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov describing the claims as “another piece of fake news” during a news conference last week, according to Russia media.

Ukrainian media reported earlier this month that six North Koreans were among those killed after a Ukrainian missile strike in the partially occupied eastern Donetsk region on Oct. 3.

On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his government has intelligence that 10,000 troops from North Korea are being prepared to join Russian forces fighting against his country, warning that a third nation wading into the hostilities could turn the conflict into a “world war.”

“From our intelligence we’ve got information that North Korea sent tactical personnel and officers to Ukraine,” Zelenskyy told reporters at NATO headquarters. “They are preparing on their land 10,000 soldiers, but they didn’t move them already to Ukraine or to Russia.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the western alliance “have no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight. But we do know that North Korea is supporting Russia in many ways, weapons supplies, technological supplies, innovation, to support them in the war effort. And that is highly worrying.”

The US, South Korea and their partners have accused North Korea of supplying Russia with artillery shells, missiles and other equipment to help fuel its war on Ukraine.

Outside officials and experts say North Korea in exchange possibly received badly needed food and economic aid and technology assistance aimed at upgrading Kim’s nuclear-armed military.

Both Moscow and Pyongyang have repeatedly denied the existence of an arms deal between the countries.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israel succeeded Wednesday in its year-long mission to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the man accused of being one of the masterminds of the October 7, 2023 attacks.

But while Sinwar’s death is a huge blow for Hamas, it does not signal the immediate demise of the group. Hamas has vowed to continue fighting, saying that the killing of leaders – including Sinwar – does not mean the end of their movement.

A Friday statement from Hamas’ political office confirming Sinwar’s death said: “Hamas each time became stronger and more popular, and these leaders became an icon for future generations to continue the journey towards a free Palestine.”

As rumors swirl about Sinwar’s successor, here’s what we know about what’s next for Hamas:

It is unclear whether Sinwar himself left any instructions on who should replace him, but his younger brother Mohammed Sinwar is seen by many as his heir apparent. Like his brother, Mohammed is a hardline militant who recently became Hamas’ military commander.

Mousa Abu Marzouk, the deputy chief of Hamas’ political bureau who helped found Hamas, could also be a contender to become Sinwar’s replacement. He spent five years living in the United States before the FBI designated him as a terrorist. He was eventually deported.

Khaled Meshaal, the group’s former political chief, is also seen as a powerful contender for the role. Meshaal is well known internationally, having met with top officials including former United States President Jimmy Carter, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the past.

However, he might face difficulty over his past support for a Sunni uprising against Syrian President Bashar al Assad as Hamas, itself a Shia group, is supported by Shia-majority Iran.

Sinwar’s deputy Khalil Al Hayya is seen as another powerful contender for the role. He acted as the chief negotiator for Hamas during recent ceasefire talks in Cairo and is based in Qatar.

Both Meshaal and Al Hayya have been among Hamas’ top-ranking officials for many years. And both have been the targets of Israeli assassination attempts in the past. In 1997, Israeli Mossad agents posing as Canadian tourists sprayed a poisonous substance into Meshaal’s ear. The incident was widely publicized as the Israeli intelligence service agents were captured in Jordan.

Israel has killed Hamas’ previous leaders: In 2004 they killed Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. A few weeks later, his successor Abdel Aziz Rantisi was killed.

While Hamas has always managed to recover from multiple assassinations on its leadership, it is hard to say how they will now regroup, given how Hamas’ organizational structure changed under Sinwar’s rule.

Sinwar had consolidated power during the war, becoming Hamas’ sole decision maker in Gaza following the killing of the other two top Hamas officials there.

Mohammed al-Masri – popularly known as Mohammed Deif – was the commander of Hamas’ military arm, the Al-Qassam Brigades, and was killed in an Israeli airstrike in July. Deif’s deputy Marwan Issa was killed in March, according to the Israeli military. Hamas never acknowledged their deaths.

Sinwar became Hamas’ most senior leader after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran in July. Iran blamed the killing on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces did not comment on the accusation.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In his first television interview since leaving Venezuela, Edmundo González Urrutia explained the role of the Spanish government in his departure from the Latin American country. The former diplomat also reiterated that he believes he is “more useful outside than inside,” free and not detained, to solve Venezuela’s political crisis.

Venezuela has been in a state of crisis since the country’s July presidential vote, in which authoritarian incumbent Nicolas Maduro was declared the winner by the country’s electoral authority – a body stacked with his allies – with 51% of the vote.

But tens of thousands of tallies published by the opposition suggested a win for Gonzalez. Venezuela’s opposition and multiple Latin American leaders refused to recognize Maduro’s victory, which sparked deadly protests during which thousands were arrested.

‘I had to negotiate with the regime’s envoys’

González described the days before he fled his home country. He first took refuge in the Dutch embassy because he had three summonses from the Venezuelan Public Ministry and an arrest warrant. “What awaited me was the raid of my house,” he stated. He claims he was in the Dutch embassy for 32 days “without anyone noticing I was there.”

Later, with his wife and team, he decided “the best option was to seek asylum in a friendly country like the Kingdom of Spain.” After two days at the Spanish ambassador’s residence in Caracas, González managed to leave Venezuela after signing a document at the Spanish embassy “that was initially going to be confidential” but “those who signed on behalf of the government took it upon themselves to disclose.”

The document in question accepts the ruling of the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela (TSJ), which ratified President Maduro’s victory in the July 28 elections. The Venezuelan government has yet to provide detailed results by voting center or “table” to support that announcement.

In September, González said on social media that he signed the document after several hours “of coercion, blackmail, and pressure” in the presence of Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly.

“I had to negotiate with the regime’s envoys” to leave the country, he said. “The legal weakling there was me: either I signed that [document] or I didn’t leave.”

The version of events shared by Venezuela’s National Assembly president, Jorge Rodríguez, differs from González. On September 18, Maduro’s representative assured in a press conference that they had not coerced the former diplomat and that he was the one who decided to contact the government.

González said that he never specifically requested the presence of Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez at the meeting.

“There were only four people, so someone took them without the proper authorization of the host, the ambassador himself,” he said.

The former diplomat said his last hours in Venezuela “were very tense” because he faced the prospect of leaving the country freely with his wife or staying at the embassy “without the possibility of leaving.”

He said that at the airport, he was just waiting to board the plane “to end this nightmare.”

Would María Corina Machado go into exile? González hopes not

González said leaving the country was a personal decision “that was appropriate to keep confidential,” so he only informed María Corina Machado — who was disqualified from running in the elections and backed González’s campaign — two days before his departure.

González said he explained his reasons to her, and the opposition leader agreed.

The candidate said he has maintained “permanent” contact with Machado and that they have a very fluid relationship.

This Wednesday, Machado denied having fled Venezuela, as Maduro previously claimed.

“Venezuelans know I am here in Venezuela, people know it, and Nicolás Maduro knows it too, but they are desperate to know where I am, and I will not give them that satisfaction,” she told Florida’s EVTV network.

Would exile be the future of Machado? “I hope not,” said González, stating that he has not discussed that scenario with her.

The role of the Spanish government

Narbona said she knows “the vice president stopped for a few hours at Barajas Airport” in Madrid, but she “has no more information than what has emerged over time.”

For Narbona, the political asylum granted by Spain to González benefits him because “he lived under threat and wanted to leave Venezuela.” Spanish opposition parties, like the conservative Popular Party [PP] and the far-right Vox, have accused the Spanish government of only helping Maduro’s regime with González’s asylum.

“I have found myself in the middle of the diatribe between the two main political forces in Spain,” González said, adding that the Spanish government has provided him with all the facilities in his exile.

On September 18, the Spanish Senate approved by majority a motion presented by the Popular Party urging the Spanish government to recognize González as the elected president of Venezuela.

The former diplomat said he does not know whether Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is mediating with Nicolás Maduro’s regime. He reiterated that he considers dialogue always a tool to resolve a political crisis and says he supports the “important effort” of the Colombian and Brazilian governments to find a solution.

González’s goal: January 10

González said that he and the exiled opposition are working to respect the will “of the nearly 8 million who voted for a peaceful change.” The goal, he says, is to be in Venezuela on January 10 for the inauguration.

The National Electoral Council of Venezuela (CNE), controlled by Chavismo, says Maduro won with 51.95% of the votes to González’s 43.18%, although it has not yet published detailed results. This result is questioned by much of the international community for its lack of transparency.

Regarding the official figures, González says that “there is no evidence to prove they [Maduro’s regime] won.”

The opposition candidate said that an inauguration in exile has not been considered. At the same time, the possibility of not being in Venezuela on January 10 “is a scenario we have not considered,” but he is approaching it with “coolness and a fresh mind.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Abu Mohammed stands with red, bleary eyes. Women and young men walk on a muddied pathway as children run between rows of improvised tents in Deir al-Balah displacement camp, central Gaza.

Mohammed and others staying in makeshift displacement camps have survived Israeli bombardments that have laid waste to Gaza’s streets for over a year, enduring catastrophic violence, constant killings and disfigurement, and crippling hunger.

As Israel celebrated its killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar this week – with its allies hoping Sinwar’s death will now open a possibility for peace in Gaza – Mohammed and many others remain skeptical it will change their daily reality.

Sinwar was a divisive figure to Palestinians: a militant hardliner, Sinwar was seen as a brutal force by some, a pragmatic political thinker by others, and a freedom fighter to many.

Born in a refugee camp in 1962, his family displaced from the Palestinian village of Al-Majdal – in what is now the Israeli city of Ashkelon – Sinwar was “a symbol of the Palestinian people,” in Mohammed’s view and that of many others.

Many Gazans today are afraid to publicly voice support for Sinwar and Hamas for fear of being targeted by the Israeli military — which launched its siege of Gaza with the stated aim of destroying Hamas after it led the October 7 terror attacks, and to save the hostages taken that day. Others fear condemning Hamas, which controls the Palestinian enclave.

“Sinwar was a target for Israel and he was targeted and killed. He attacked Israel, and committed crimes that we have paid the price for … We paid with horrific tragedies, with the blood of our children, our money, and our homes.”

She too said she had little hope that his death would be a turning point in the war. “The assassination of leaders seems to change nothing. (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu wants more and more people to be killed. We wish to live in security, peace, and stability,” she said.

Sinwar’s last moments

Sinwar’s death has prompted speculation among Western allies over whether the coming weeks could signal the beginning of the end of fighting in Gaza, and the release of 101 remaining Israeli hostages.

But Netanyahu has given no signal he is ready to end the war. And Hamas has vowed to continue fighting.

On Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces released drone footage that it said shows Sinwar in his final moments. The edited video shows the interior of a hollowed-out building, where a man that the IDF identifies as Sinwar can be seen perched alone on an armchair.

In the footage, the figure’s face is obscured by a scarf and covered in a thick layer of dust. His right arm appears to be injured, as he turns toward the drone. He is holding what the IDF described as a piece of wood, before throwing it toward the lens.

The footage appeared to show Sinwar at his weakest – alone and nearing defeat. But that’s not how most Palestinians see it, according to Mustafa Barghouti, a physician and an independent Palestinian politician.

“This image will make him look like a hero for most Palestinians,” Barghouti added, explaining that Sinwar’s apparent defiance in his final moments would be perceived by Palestinians as part of a broader historical resistance, even among those who did not agree with the Hamas leader’s tactics.

Like Sinwar, at least 70% of residents in Gaza are refugees, or descendants of those uprooted by al-Nakba, or “the catastrophe,” according to Amnesty International, when about 700,000 Palestinians were forcibly expelled from their homes during the creation of Israel in 1948.

Decades later, those same descendants are grappling with the same reality of being unable to return to their homes in Gaza, with an estimated 69% of buildings in the enclave now destroyed or partly damaged, according to the CUNY Institute.

For Abu Fares, one of hundreds of thousands prevented from returning to their homes, Sinwar’s death is just a continuation of a brutal war. “It will not stop the battle or the fighting, because the children who carried their father’s dismembered body and those who carried their sister’s dismembered body — what do you expect from them after 20 years?”

‘I wish for my own death’

Sinwar’s killing comes as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza spirals and the death toll from Israeli airstrikes continues to rise.

At least 42,500 people have been killed since October 8, 2023, with another 99,546 injured, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza. At least 1.9 million of Gaza’s 2.2 million people have been displaced, according to the UN.

Entire families have been erased, with many neighborhoods reduced to wastelands of thick sewage pools. More than a million people in northern Gaza are facing a looming famine compounded by Israel’s aid restrictions, the UN warned earlier this year.

Around 70% of Palestinians killed by Israel’s strikes are women and children, according to the Hamas-run Government Media Office (GMO). More than 17,000 children have been killed in the Israeli attacks since October 8, the office said.

Israel has said that its sustained military campaign in Gaza is designed to root out what remains of Hamas, following the Hamas-led attacks that killed 1,200 people in Israel and saw more than 250 people abducted, according to Israeli authorities.

Israel says it takes steps to minimize civilian harm, like making phone calls and sending text messages to residents in buildings designated for attack. For years, it has also said Hamas fighters use mosques, hospitals and other civilian buildings to hide from Israeli attacks and launch their own – claims that Hamas has repeatedly denied.

But human rights agencies and many world leaders, including Israel’s allies, have repeatedly raised concerns over Israel’s war conduct and the civilian toll. Groups like Amnesty International also say warnings do not absolve Israel of responsibilities under international humanitarian law to limit civilian harm.

Mahmoud Jneid, also displaced in Deir al-Balah, said the world’s focus should rest on civilian suffering – not Sinwar’s death. “Sinwar was a target. What about us, the displaced? The closure of crossings and the lack of food and drink for children make our situation worse than (his) assassination,” he said.

“I wish Israel would assassinate me too,” Jneid said. “My brothers and family have died, and I wish for my own death so that I can find peace.”

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Italian parents who have made the often difficult and expensive decision to have children through surrogacy abroad have been thrown into a state of fear after a sudden shift in the country’s already strict restrictions on bringing those children up in Italy.

Italy has broadened its legislation on surrogacy, which has been illegal in the country since 2004, to now criminalize “surrogacy tourism” in countries like the United States and Canada, subjecting any intended parent who breaks the law to fines of up to €1 million ($1 million) and jail terms of up to two years.

As written, the law does not affect parents whose children born of surrogacy are already registered in the country, but many parents of younger children fear they could be targeted anyway when their children reach school age and have to register for the public school system.

The law, which came into effect immediately, passed the Italian Senate 84-58 after an impassioned debate that lasted more than seven hours on Wednesday and at times seemed as if it would come to blows.

Protesters demonstrating in front of the Senate during the lengthy debate carried signs that said: “We are families, not crimes,” and featured photos of their children under the words “the children we could never have.” Meanwhile, some called the proposed law a “medieval” ruling in interviews with Italian media.

The bill was introduced by Giorgia Meloni’s ruling far-right Brothers of Italy party and personally pushed by the prime minister, who has found in Pope Francis an ally on the surrogacy issue – underscoring the continued political influence of the Catholic Church in Italy, especially when it comes to reproductive issues.

Italy was one of the last western European nations to legalize same-sex unions, which it did in 2016, but still does not recognize same-sex unions as “marriage” under pressure from the Italian Catholic Church.

Meloni welcomed the Senate’s decision on X Wednesday, calling it “a common sense rule against the commodification of the female body and children. Human life has no price and is not a commodity.”

Earlier this year, Francis called for a global ban on surrogacy, describing the practice as “deplorable” and insisting that “a child is always a gift and never the basis of a commercial contract.” The pope, however, has not called for the practice to be criminalized and a 2023 Vatican doctrinal ruling pointed out that children born through surrogacy can be baptized.

The Catholic Church opposes surrogacy because it is “contrary to the unity of marriage and to the dignity of the procreation of the human person” and is against in-vitro fertilization (IVF) because the process involves the disposal of unneeded embryos, which the church believes is immoral.

Francis has shifted the church’s approach on welcoming LGBTQ people, but has maintained a strong line opposing both abortion and surrogacy. He has framed his critique of surrogacy as part of his long-running concerns about a “throwaway culture” where human beings are considered as “consumer goods” to be discarded and in surrogacy sees a danger of poorer women being exploited.

The new Italian law does not differentiate between same-sex and heterosexual couples, nor between altruistic or paid surrogacy, but it will disproportionately affect the LGBTQ community, advocates fear.

“The alleged defense of women, the vaunted interest in children, are just fig leaves behind which the homophobic obsession of this majority is hidden, not so much,” Laura Boldrini, an Italian politician and former speaker of Italy’s lower house of Parliament who also joined the protest in front of the Senate posted on X.

“Law or no law, same-sex families exist and will continue to exist. We will always be at their side in the battle for the affirmation of the rights of boys and girls and the self-determination of women.”

Alessia Crocini, president of the Rainbow Families advocate group, said: “We as Rainbow Families will not stop and will continue our battle in the courts and in the streets. We will fight every day to affirm the beauty and freedom of our families and our sons and daughters.”

Italy already bans gay couples from adopting children and last year the country started removing lesbian mothers’ names from some birth registrations if they were not the biological parent. Many local governments have already changed birth registrations to allow for only “mother” and “father” rather than “parent 1” and “parent 2,” which is widely accepted across the European Union.

Michela Calabro, head of LGBTQ rights group Arcigay’s political arm, called the law a serious denial of individual freedoms and self-determination.

“Introducing a crime, even a universal one, not only limits the possibility of choice, but also fuels a patriarchal vision of women’s bodies,” she said in a statement on X. “This measure highlights the Government and Parliament’s inability to address other important and urgent issues in our country. In fact, the parliamentary majority once again chooses to demonstrate its strength mainly on ideological arguments, while on pragmatic issues it confirms its total inability.”

It is unclear how the new law will be enforced, or if DNA checks could be required when babies are said to be born to Italian women abroad.

LGBTQ activists who protested outside the Senate on Wednesday said that heterosexual couples make up 90% of all surrogacies.

They argue that those couples will still be able to “sneak their children in” and get around the new law since, in the US and Canada, intended parents’ names can be put on foreign birth certificates for babies born to surrogates in compliance with state rules. Gay male couples would find it harder to find a loophole when returning to Italy.

The new legislation could prove challenging for Meloni politically. She enjoys a strong approval rating, with the latest polls showing she has 29.3% support (up 3% from when she took office in late 2022).

But the broad reach of the legislation has prompted wide criticism, including from heterosexual couples who have come out to protest alongside those in the gay community. She is also a close political ally of tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has had children via surrogates and who spoke at her political convention in December, telling her supporters to “make more Italians” to combat the country’s dwindling birth rate.

The pope and Meloni have also found common ground on this topic, with the pair joining forces at a conference aimed at tackling Italy’s declining birth rate, while Francis has generated attention for his view that some couples nowadays prefer to have pets rather than children.

But not all of Meloni’s policies are in line with those of Francis. The same day the controversial law passed, Italy began shipping some migrant men rescued at sea to Albania, in a move that is starkly against the Church’s teaching that migrants should be welcomed and Francis’ outspoken advocacy on this topic.

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