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October 2024

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When the stock market hesitates to move in either direction, it becomes challenging to identify potential trading candidates. For this reason, it’s a good idea to have a checklist of items to go over during the trading day.

One item on my checklist is to run my SCTR (StockCharts Technical Rank, pronounced “scooter”) scan, which looks for stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with a SCTR rank above 76, 78, or 80. The scan results give you a good idea of which industries show technical strength. The scan is provided at the bottom of this article.

When I ran the scan on October 30 and sorted the results table by the Universe and SCTR columns, several regional banks made the list. This isn’t surprising, given that the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates and will likely make further cuts. The demand for consumer loans increases when interest rates are lower.

FIGURE 1. SCAN RESULTS, OCTOBER 30. Several regional banks were filtered in the scan.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Naturally, I pulled up the chart of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). Since August, KRE has been in a gradual uptrend, accompanied by a rising S&P Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index ($BPFINA) and a high SCTR score.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF KRE. The regional banks are moving within an uptrend channel and have a high SCTR score and BPI.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Looking back at the scan results, I can save them to a ChartList, analyze the regional banks, and decide which ones to keep and delete. I prefer to do this by viewing the charts in CandleGlance, which I have set up with moving averages and the On Balance Volume indicator. I look to see which stocks are trending up with an OBV that’s above its 20-day SMA.

Glancing at the candlestick charts, the stocks that stand out are as follows:

  • Barclays Plc (BCS)
  • Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF)
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
  • Keycorp (KEY)
  • PNC Financial Services (PNC)
  • US Bancorp (USB)

I transferred these symbols to my “watchlists” ChartList, which is where I have all stocks and ETFs that are in consideration. If you haven’t done so, install the StockCharts ChartList Framework to organize your ChartLists.

Analyzing Regional Banks

The next step involves analyzing each of these charts in more detail. Which ones have momentum behind them to make them trend higher? The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) help confirm the momentum. Of the six, the three that stand out are KEY, PNC, and USB. Let’s look at these charts.

Keycorp (KEY)

The momentum looks like it’s slowing in Key Bank’s stock price (see daily chart below), which could be because it’s at or close to a resistance level.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF KEY BANK’S STOCK PRICE. KEY is in an uptrend although the momentum is slowing down. The last three bars, RSI, and MACD are showing sideways movement.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Looking at a three-year timeframe, you’ll see that the stock price is close to the February 2023 high (not shown here). The last three bars show a harami followed by an inverted hammer. So, there could be a slight pullback here, at least to its 25-day exponential moving average.

The RSI and MACD confirm the slowdown in momentum. If KEY pulls back and reverses with increasing momentum, I would consider entering a position. KEY’s all-time high is $23.44, so the stock has room for upside movement.

PNC Financial (PNC)

PNC’s chart is similar to that of KEY. The stock price is trending higher but momentum is slow at the moment. Trading volume has been relatively low in the last few days. If the RSI and MACD indicate increasing momentum and volume picks up, it will alert me to consider adding PNC to my portfolio.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF PNC BANK STOCK PRICE. PNC’s stock price is trending higher but trading volume is relatively low. The RSI and MACD are indicating slow momentum.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

PNC’s all-time high is $202.80, so the stock price has the potential to move higher. It’ll first have to break out of its sideways move.

US Bancorp (USB)

Of the three, US Bank’s stock price has the most chop. The 25-day EMA was erratic, so it was removed from this chart. The 50-day SMA is a smoother measure of the overall trend.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF US BANK STOCK. USB is within a trading range. An upside breakout with above-average volume and a rising RSI and MACD crossover would be an indication of an upward-sloping trend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

KRE must break out from its sideways trading range before considering a long entry. Volume is relatively low, the RSI is moving sideways, and the MACD indicates a slowdown in momentum.

The Bottom Line

The sideways movement seen in the charts that we discussed here reflects the sentiment of the overall market. Earnings and economic data aren’t moving the market much, and trading volume is relatively low. There’s an election and a Fed meeting coming up. The Fed decision will likely have an impact on the price action of regional bank stocks. Does it mean you have to wait until November 7 to make your trading decisions? Patience is key, but if you see an upside breakout with strong momentum that’s convincing, you may have an opportunity to get in early on an upside move.


The SCTR Scan

[country is US] and [sma(20,volume) > 100000] and [[SCTR.us.etf x 76] or [SCTR.large x 76] or [SCTR.us.etf x 78] or [SCTR.large x 78] or [SCTR.us.etf x 80] or [SCTR.large x 80]]


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Heavy rains and high winds lashed Taiwan on Thursday as the largest storm to hit the island in nearly three decades made landfall along its southeast coast, killing at least one person and injuring dozens.

Typhoon Kong-rey packed winds approaching 200 kilometers per hour (125 mph), equivalent to a Category 3 Atlantic hurricane, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), as it made landfall in Taitung county on Thursday afternoon.

Kong-rey’s radius of maximum wind – how far the strongest winds are from its center – measured 320 kilometers (nearly 200 miles) on Wednesday evening, meaning it is the largest storm to hit Taiwan since Typhoon Herb in 1996, said Chang Chun-yao, a forecaster with the island’s Central Weather Administration.

A 56-year-old woman was killed by a falling tree while traveling by car in central Nantou county, according to Taiwan’s Central Emergency Operations Center (CEOC). At least 73 storm-related injuries have been reported across the island, it added.

Ahead of the powerful storm, local authorities ordered offices and schools to temporarily close, while Taiwan suspended trading on its stock market.

Taiwan generally has a strong track record of responding to major typhoons, though remote villages in more mountainous regions can be particularly vulnerable to landslides.

Taiwan’s military has put more than 34,000 soldiers on standby to assist with rescue efforts and over 8,600 people have been evacuated from high-risk areas on Wednesday, CEOC said.

More than 500 flights, including 300 international journeys, have been canceled, and all ferry services to Taiwan’s outlying islands have been suspended, according to Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration. High-speed rail services are operating at limited capacity, according to the rail operator, while the Taipei metro said it had suspended services on open-air sections.

Images from Taiwan’s official Central News Agency and social media showed ferocious waves slamming into the coast of Taitung county, while parts of neighboring Hualien county were submerged in floodwaters. Toppled road signs and traffic lights were also seen across Taiwan, social media images showed.

Kong-rey rapidly intensified to reach super typhoon strength on Wednesday as it barreled toward Taiwan after bashing the Philippines. Though the storm weakened slightly ahead of making direct landfall over Taiwan, it is unleashing intense downpours, bringing flash flooding, storm surges and the risk of landslides.

The heaviest rainfall is expected across eastern Taiwan. Taiwan’s weather agency on Thursday issued an “extremely torrential” rainfall warning, its highest level, for parts of Yilan, Hualien, Taichung and Taitung counties along the east coast.

The rest of eastern Taiwan and parts of the island’s north, including Taipei, are under a “torrential” rainfall warning, the second-highest level. Additional rainfall of over a half of meter (20 inches) is still possible across parts of eastern Taiwan, which could lead to flash flooding and landslides, according to the CWA.

Warmer oceans from the human-caused climate crisis are leading storms to intensify more rapidly, according to scientists.

Kong-rey is the third typhoon to make landfall on Taiwan this year after Krathon and Gaemi.

Earlier this month, Typhoon Krathon killed four people as it brought particularly heavy rains to the south of the island.

In recent days, northern parts of the Philippines’ main island of Luzon have been lashed by the outer bands of Kong-rey, known locally as Leon, as authorities ordered evacuations and warned of its impacts after already seeing devastation last week from Tropical Storm Trami, known as Kristine, which killed at least 130 people.

After moving into the northern Taiwan Strait, the storm is forecast to head into the East China Sea and toward Japan.

This story has been updated with additional information.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

At least 51 people have died in flash floods in southeastern Spain, the regional government of Valencia said on Wednesday.

Some locations in southern and eastern Spain received up to 12 inches of rain in just a few hours on Tuesday.

Footage from the city of Valencia showed muddy water flooding through the streets, tearing down walls and sweeping away parked cars.

Valencia’s regional leader Carlos Mazón told reporters earlier on Wednesday that some bodies were found as rescue teams began to reach areas previously cut off by the floods, adding, “Out of respect for the families we are not going to give any more details.”

The death toll is expected to rise as authorities said the current figures are “provisional.”

Mazón also urged residents in the provinces of Valencia and Castellón to avoid travelling by road.

The Valencia area averages 77 millimeters (3.03 inches) of rain for the entire month of October.

Chiva, just east of Valencia, received 320 millimeters (12.6 inches) of rain in just over four hours, according to the European Severe Weather Database.

Flooding was also reported in and around the cities of Murcia and Malaga, with more than 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rain falling in some areas.

The human-caused climate crisis is making extreme weather more frequent and more severe, scientists say.

As the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution, it’s driving more frequent and more intense rainfall events. Hotter oceans fuel stronger storms and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture which it wrings out in the form of torrential rainfall.

Rainfall warnings continue through Wednesday for portions of eastern and southern Spain, according to Spain’s Meteorological Agency, AEMET, with the threat of heavy rain expected to continue through the end of the week.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them.

As investors, we often get so caught up in one particular market narrative that we are unable to think “outside the box” and consider other possible outcomes. Successful investors I’ve worked with have been exceptionally good at looking at all the possibilities, challenging their own investment thesis by opening themselves up to other options.

Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.  

By the way, we ran through four scenarios for the S&P 500 back in July, and you may be surprised to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop a comment and let me know your vote and what you think will cause that scenario to play out.
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most bullish scenario, where the S&P 500 keeps going with a consistent pace and breaks above 6000 by early December.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkably strong run off the low in early August. This first scenario would mean a continuation of the pace of the current trend, suggesting the SPX would remain above a trendline drawn from the August and September lows. This scenario would include the S&P breaking above 6000 for the first time, and by early December, we’d be wondering how we made it through an entire calendar year with the biggest drawdown sitting at just less than 10%.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Let’s say that Trump wins a second term, and investors see that as a fairly pro-business and pro-market outcome. At the same time, however, new economic data and the November Fed meeting leave investors a little skeptical of the Fed’s ability to navigate the soft landing scenario into early 2025.

The second scenario would mean we drift a bit higher, but breadth conditions break down as investors gravitate to Magnificent 7 stocks and other safe havens as the VIX pushes above 20. We don’t see a major correction into early December, but it still feels like one is just around the corner and everyone’s talking about overvaluations and a potential Q1 pullback.

Dave’s vote: 25%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

A Harris victory could certainly weigh on the markets as we progress through Q4, as we realize how much investors had been pricing in a Republican White House. Skepticism of the Fed reaches a fever pitch as we’re no longer talking about a potential soft landing, but rather when the next major correction will play out. Volume and breadth divergences that have been growing in October continue to play out, and a 2018-style Q4 drop becomes our reality in 2024.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a “doomsday” scenario, where things get bad and stay bad. What if the S&P 500 starts selling off as a frustrating earnings season leads into a contentious election and a November Fed meeting raises more questions than answers? Paul Tudor Jones famously remarked, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” And in this scenario, that’s exactly what we’re facing in December as we wonder where how and why the normal Q4 rally is nowhere to be seen.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In the fast-paced world of trading, success often hinges on screening for the best ideas in real-time to find trading opportunities. At OptionsPlay, we are committed to providing our users with the latest cutting-edge tools to automate the manual process of researching options trades. This is why we are thrilled to announce a groundbreaking partnership with StockCharts.com, a leader in technical analysis, charting, and screening.

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One of several effective StockCharts tools you can use to spot potential trading or investing opportunities is to check the New Highs panel in Your Dashboard. This feature highlights stocks hitting new highs—from one-month peaks to 52-week or all-time records—giving you a peek at where Wall Street’s capital may be flowing.

On Monday morning, the one-month new high list top 10 gave us three transportation stocks: Carnival Corp (CCL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and United Airlines (UAL). As you can see below, Carnival, under the Consumer Discretionary sector, occupies the top spot.

FIGURE 1: NEW HIGHS FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2024. We got a ship and two airlines. Which one, if any, might be more tradable or investment-worthy from a technical perspective?Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the transportation industry seems like a suitable prospect for your portfolio, one of the first things you’ll want to do is compare the charts and drill down on the technicals. Let’s start with a PerfCharts view for a quick 200-day comparison of all three stocks.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF CARNIVAL CORP, DELTA AIR LINES, AND UNITED AIRLINES STOCK. United Airlines took off and is now sky-high, with Delta following below while Carnival’s at the bottom with its tide rising.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

With UAL clearly outpacing the other two, it makes you wonder whether the airline has enough fuel to gain more altitude or whether its trajectory is a little too vertical. Carnival, on the other hand, is the underperformer. But does that mean it has more upside to cover, and are we witnessing the beginning of a much larger uptrend?


Note: We’ll look at weekly charts because this time frame provides the clearest key levels for each stock.


Let’s start with a weekly chart of CCL.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF CARNIVAL CORP STOCK. Note the multiple levels of resistance overhead.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

A couple of things to note:

  • CCL’s StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) score has hit or crossed the bullish 90 mark several times in the past four years, but it hasn’t stayed there for long. Each time it peaks, the score drops within a few months, signaling that the stock struggles to maintain technical strength for extended periods.
  • CCL has four resistance levels up ahead, marked by the dotted magenta lines. If you happen to be long the stock, expect heavier profit-taking and selling pressure at each consecutive resistance level all the way up to $31.
  • The stock has broken out of a long-term ascending triangle pattern, which is generally bullish. However, according to the On Balance Volume (OBV), the buying/selling momentum is narrowing as prices rise, signaling not only an intensified state of indecision but also a divergence between price and momentum.

At this point, it’s a wait-and-see, and if price pulls back, keep an eye on the top of the triangle pattern near $19.75 to see if price bounces and what the momentum looks like at that point, specifically on a daily chart. I’m not zooming into the daily chart because the key levels it will give are similar to what you can see on the weekly.

So, how might Carnival Corp. stock perform technically against UAL, which, in the PerfCharts, is outperforming CCL and DAL? Let’s take a look at UAL’s weekly chart.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF UNITED AIRLINES STOCK PRICE. UAL stock’s price action is similar to CCL’s, but the OBV has reversed its downward slope and is rising.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Like CCL in the previous example, UAL’s technical strength, as measured by the SCTR line, also rises above the extremely bullish 90 line, but seems to never sustain that level for too long. However, in contrast to CCL, the buying pressure driving UAL’s valuations, as measured by the OBV, reversed its downward slope and is now rising. Watch out for the Money Flow Index (MFI), which is flashing an overbought signal, indicating a near-term pullback.

Now look at Delta Airlines (DAL), the middle performer on the PerfCharts comparison. Below is the weekly chart.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF DELTA STOCK. The price chart displays deep swing highs and lows in contrast to CCL and UAL.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The approach to DAL will be slightly different, primarily because the stock’s main patterns are driven by swings that are much deeper and more pronounced than those in the other examples.

Note the SCTR line; as price claws its way higher, its overall technical strength, as measured by multiple indicators across several timeframes, failed to reach previous levels above the 90 line. In addition, look at the panels below the chart—the OBV and MFI readings, which both exhibit a bearish divergence in buying pressure. This signals dwindling momentum as DAL’s price establishes a three-year high.

Looking at the chart, note the ZigZag line. This marks the swing high and swing low levels that must hold for the current uptrend to remain intact: while DAL broke above the swing high of $54, signaling a continuation of the uptrend, it must also stay above the swing low of $37 for the uptrend to remain intact.

To that end, I drew a Quadrant Line to measure the strength of the potential upcoming pullback, as suggested by the momentum indicators. For the bulls, a DAL pullback should stay above the last quadrant (above $41) for DAL’s technical strength to remain convincingly bullish.

Add these charts to your ChartLists and monitor their movements in the coming weeks.

Summary in a Nutshell

Each stock presents a longer-term play.

Carnival Corp (CCL)

  • Opportunity: Broke out of a bullish ascending triangle pattern, hinting at potential upside.
  • Risk: Multiple resistance levels ahead; narrowing momentum signals indecision, with heavy selling likely near $31.

United Airlines (UAL)

  • Opportunity: Strong recent performance, with rising buying pressure and outperformance compared to peers.
  • Risk: Overbought Money Flow Index (MFI) suggests a near-term pullback might be imminent.

Delta Airlines (DAL)

  • Opportunity: Currently in an uptrend, breaking past key swing levels.
  • Risk: Dwindling momentum, with bearish divergences in OBV and MFI. The stock must hold above key levels ($41) to maintain bullish strength.

At the Close

You will have to decide for yourself which among the three might be the stronger stock to invest in when the time comes. Again, these are longer-term plays, but if played well, they may present strong investment opportunities. Keep an eye on momentum and key price patterns that could shift.

Bottom line: Add them to your ChartLists and be ready for the next opportunity.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Iran rushed to downplay the impact of Israel’s strikes on its territory this weekend, suggesting that it has taken an off-ramp to avoid a wider war, but the attack set a precedent the Islamic Republic has tried to avoid since its inception 40 years ago.

The adversaries had spent decades avoiding direct confrontation, instead choosing to exchange punches in a shadow war. Israel used clandestine operations to assassinate key Iranian figures and execute cyberattacks on vital facilities as Iran continued activating its Arab proxy militias to attack the Jewish state.

Saturday’s attack marked the first time Israel has acknowledged striking Iran, bringing the shadow war into the open and crossing a threshold that has led some in the Islamic Republic to question the country’s deterrence capabilities.

In April, after Iran attacked Israel in retaliation for what it said was an Israeli attack on its diplomatic building in the Syrian capital Damascus, US officials said Israel responded by attacking Iran just days later. Israel didn’t publicly acknowledge that attack.

The latest attack, however, was different. Israel openly said it conducted “precise strikes” on military targets in Iran.

“Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” Israel’s military spokesman Daniel Hagari said, touting achievements in the attack.

Shortly after the assault, Iran’s state media published images showing everyday life continuing as usual in its cities. Schools continued operating and Tehran’s streets were shown gridlocked with traffic. Hardline commentators mocked the attack on television and social media memes poked fun at the limited nature of the Israeli response.

Internal debate emerging

In his first comments after the attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opted to give a measured response, saying the strikes should “neither be exaggerated nor downplayed.”

But that initial wave of dismissal eventually dissipated, and an internal debate emerged over whether Iran should deliver a harsh response to prevent Israeli strikes from becoming normalized against a regime focused on its own survival.

“The sense is that if they do not respond they will normalize the idea that Israel can strike Tehran without getting a response,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC said, adding that there is a “fear if they don’t do something now Israel will start treating Iran as they did with Syria which means every once in a while, (Israelis will) strike.”

Iranian officials say some military sites sustained “minor damage” that was “swiftly repaired.” Five people were killed, including four army personnel, the Iranian government said.

Experts however say that the damage was more significant than Tehran has acknowledged.

“This (attack) was much more damaging than Iranian officials have led on, Iran’s air defenses and some of the radars that are crucial to identifying incoming missiles, it seems that those were destroyed in the first wave,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Tehran spent years building regional proxies designed to serve as a security umbrella and the first line of defense against Israel. These militias, stationed at Israel’s borders, also acted as a deterrent, discouraging Israel from directly striking Iran. The idea was that if Israel were to strike Iran, Tehran would retaliate by unleashing its militias against Israel.

The longstanding balance of power prevented a regional war – until Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza last year, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. That prompted a fierce Israeli onslaught that has destroyed the enclave and killed more than 42,000 Palestinians. The expansion of that conflict to southern Lebanon led to Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, Iran’s most formidable proxy, and decimated the organization’s commanding hierarchy.

The degrading of Iran’s strongest allied militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the weekend strikes on Iran, have fueled another internal debate in Iran: whether regional proxies are an effective deterrence.

“There are certainly voices within the political establishment who question the efficacy of the ‘forward defense’ doctrine, or the notion that Iran’s regional alliance network can provide a security umbrella. If that is changing, one natural aspect of the debate is what could take place to restore deterrence,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, the editor of Amwaj.media, a London-based news site focusing on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula.

The nuclear option

Since the Trump administration abandoned the nuclear agreement with Tehran in 2018, to put curbs on its nuclear program, the Islamic Republic has been gradually ramping up enrichment of uranium, a key ingredient of a nuclear bomb if purified to a high level. Its stockpiles have reached 60% purity, a short step away from weapons-grade, which is 90%.

Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that they have no intention of weaponizing the country’s nuclear program, while simultaneously using its potential as leverage in negotiations with the West.

As Israel continues disintegrating Iran’s deterrence capability, the minority voices in the Islamic Republic favoring the weaponization of its nuclear program are becoming stronger, Parsi said. “The trajectory and momentum are with those who are saying if Iran actually had a nuclear deterrence this would not be happening.”

Experts cast doubt over Iran’s ability to quickly build a nuclear weapon even if it can purify uranium to weapons grade. The process to build and test an atomic bomb may take years, leaving Iran vulnerable to Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities.

The nuclear bomb option is “much more public now” and has become “normalized in conversation,” but Israel has been able to derail Iran’s nuclear program in the past and may be able to do it again, Grajewski said.

Parsi said if the Israelis were to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, regardless of whether the Iranians can get a bomb quickly or not, Tehran will seek to build a nuclear weapon.

“Even the more hawkish American presidents have not favored taking military strikes because the most likely outcome is that, at some point, that will make Iran turn nuclear,” Parsi said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Tuesday it had taken the Ukrainian town of Selydove, southeast of the key city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Russian forces have been advancing on Selydove in the last several weeks, according to frontline reports. It’s part of Russia’s ongoing assault and incremental territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.

Selydove was an important staging area for Ukraine’s defenses and a key foothold to prevent Russia’s advance toward Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on Russia’s claims of control.

“[Russia] continues to assault with very large troop numbers. They used reserves from the north of the frontline’s Pokrovsk section to increase pressure on Selydove,” 15th brigade national guard spokesman Vitaliy Milovidov said.

“At the same time, the enemy is not destroying the city’s infrastructure,” he added. “Most likely, they want to keep the town as a foothold for themselves in the future. Selydove is a large town where you can accommodate a large number of people and hide equipment.”

Video released by Russian state media TASS on Tuesday reportedly shows troops raising the Russian flag in Selydove.

Russia also continued aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities overnight into Tuesday.

At least nine Ukrainian people were killed and 46 injured across the country as Russian forces attacked the cities of Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih and the capital Kyiv. In the Odesa region, a 71-year-old man was killed by falling debris following an intercepted Russian missile strike launched by a fighter jet from the Black Sea.

In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, a Russian bomb destroyed much of the Derzhprom building, one of the most celebrated landmarks, which is considered a cultural monument due to its modernist architecture.

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The teenager charged with the murder of three young girls in a July stabbing attack at a dance class in northwest England will face a terrorism charge, British prosecutors announced Tuesday.

The suspect Axel Rudakubana, who was 17 at the time of the attack but is now 18, will be charged with the production of the biological toxin ricin, and possession of information likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing to commit an act of terrorism, the United Kingdom’s Crown Prosecution Service said in a statement.

Rudakubana will appear at Westminster Magistrates Court via videolink on Wednesday, police added.

The new charges he faces in relation to the attack in the town of Southport, England, are in addition to three charges of murder, 10 charges of attempted murder and one charge of possession of a knife. A trial is expected to begin in January 2025.

Three young girls – Bebe King, 6, Elsie Dot Stancombe, 7, and 9-year-old Alice da Silva Aguiar – were stabbed to death while attending a Taylor Swift-themed class in Southport in July, in one of the worst assaults against children in the country in decades. Eight other children also suffered stab wounds in the attack.

The fresh charges came after local police conducted searches of the suspect’s home, Merseyside Chief Constable Chief Constable Serena Kennedy said on Tuesday.

“Searches of Axel Rudakubana’s home address resulted in an unknown substance being found – testing confirmed the substance was ricin,” Kennedy told reporters at a news conference.

“We have worked extensively with partners to establish that there was a low to very low risk to the public – and I want to make that reassurance clear today.”

She added: “When the ricin was discovered, all necessary steps were taken so we could be sure that no one was at risk. This was a multi-agency response. Expert advice, and guidance was received and adhered to throughout the investigation.”

Dr. Renu Bindra, a senior medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, told the news conference that the authority was brought in to conduct a public health risk assessment and that “there was no evidence that any victims, responders or members of the public were exposed to ricin either as part of the incident or afterwards.”

The risk assessment “judged that the risk to the community and to the wider public was low,” Bindra said.

The attack on July 29 has not been declared a terrorist incident, the police chief said.

“I recognise that the new charges may lead to speculation. The matter for which Axel Rudakubana has been charged with under the Terrorism Act does not require motive to be established. For a matter to be declared a terrorist incident, motivation would need to be established,” Kennedy explained.

In the days after the tragic incident, dozens of protests erupted in several locations around the country. Several of the demonstrations erupted into riots after an anti-immigrant misinformation campaign stoked outrage and far-right agitators targeted hotels housing asylum-seekers.

It was the worst disorder seen in the UK in more than a decade, with more than 1,000 people arrested and hundreds sentenced to jail.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

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The photo shows a large crowd of more than 200 people, crouching low amid the rubble of Jabalya in northern Gaza. Mostly men, many are almost naked, some are elderly, some visibly wounded. There’s at least one child among them.

Their tired faces give a glimpse into their misery. The men at the front are anxiously staring straight ahead, while those toward the back stretch their necks to see what is going on.

The photo, taken in Jabalya on Friday, shows residents of the refugee camp who tried to leave the area after being forced by the Israeli military to evacuate amid its ongoing ground operation there.

According to Khalaf, the men in the crowd seen in the photograph were asked to come forward five at a time, to be screened by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) before being allowed to proceed to Gaza City, which has been designated by the Israeli military as a safe place.

“Some individuals were selected for detention while others were released. Most of us ended up in Gaza City. The situation was terrifying and deeply saddening as we witnessed elderly men and injured individuals in distress, with no one showing them compassion or mercy.”

The little girl seen in the photograph is Jouri Abu Ward. The three-and-a-half-year-old was riding her bike, trying to get to Gaza City, when she and her father were detained at the checkpoint.

Repeated strip-searches in Gaza

The IDF encircled Jabalya and launched a new ground operation there more than three weeks ago, cutting off most supplies and forcing people to leave amid heavy fighting. The IDF said it saw signs of Hamas rebuilding in the area, despite a year of heavy bombardment and two previous ground operations which the IDF had claimed were successful.

Due to security protocol, “clothes are not immediately returned to the detainees,” the IDF statement continued, adding that the clothes are returned as soon as it is “possible to do so”

The Geneva Conventions, a set of international laws that set out the rules of armed conflict, says that any detainees must be treated humanely. The rules explicitly prohibit acts that “outrage upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment.”

The International Red Cross says that intrusive searches, including strip searches of detainees “should be undertaken only if absolutely necessary” and not in front of other detainees.

The United Nations and other human rights organizations have criticized Israel’s military for detaining and stripping people during its military campaign in Gaza, accusing it of weaponizing the practice.

The UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel said last month that it found that “forced nudity, with the aim of degrading and humiliating victims in front of both soldiers and other detainees, was frequently used against male victims.”

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International also condemned Israel for what they said was a widespread practice.

In a July 2024 report about Israel’s treatment of detainees and prisoners, Amnesty International said that public forced nudity for long durations violates the prohibition of torture and other ill-treatment and amounts to sexual violence.

Human Rights Watch has also accused the Israeli government of allowing these kinds of practices. “Israeli authorities have for months turned a blind eye as members of their military published dehumanizing fully or seminude images and videos of Palestinians in their custody,” said Balkees Jarrah, acting Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.

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